2018 MLB Draft

[Lillian]

3 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

It sounds like you're down on Madrigal for the same reasons I was down on Alex Bregman. But I have to admit -- Bregman has worked out nicely, despite the fact that the Astros had nowhere to play him when they drafted him, and he was a fast riser.

Now, just because Bregman worked out, doesn't mean Madrigal necessarily will, but it is a significant point of data to support the idea that talented players will find a way to contribute -- or at least that having too much of a specific type of talent is a better problem to have than the alternative. 

You misunderstand me. I am not down on him. I merely think that he is not suited for the role, which some here perceive. He is very likely not going to be a power hitter, or a great SS or third baseman. If he stays at second, and bats leadoff, I think that he has a chance to be one of the best, in that role. 

[Sleepy Harold]

Some food for thought. 

Edited May 21, 2018 by Sleepy Harold

[Dam8610]

10 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

I like Madrigal, and would in no way be upset if he was picked by the Sox, but expecting this result out of him (or any pick) is only setting yourself up for failure.  Could he be Altuve-like?  Sure, but there are probably better odds he never makes it out of AA.  What 5% he is Altuve, 10% he stalls out (made the numbers up entirely).  While these potential outcomes must be considered, the bulk of the consideration should be given to his most likely outcome.  With Madrigal, I would think most scouts think it is most likely that he becomes at least an average everyday player, with a chance to be above average and a smaller chance to be an all star with an even smaller chance to be a perennial all star.  But that is a guy you pick.  

I'm not expecting that result, it's just the realistic ceiling I see in him. And of course he probably has less than a 5% chance of reaching that ceiling, but that's why drafting, especially in the top 5 or 10, is about both ceiling and floor. Madrigal has one of the highest perceived floors in the draft, maybe even the highest. One of the biggest knocks on him that I've seen is the lack of a high ceiling, but I think that has to do with old scouting tropes that haven't quite died off yet, mostly related to his size, like that his power potential and defensive range will be limited. I don't buy into those tropes, so I see a much higher ceiling than most are willing to acknowledge with him. On the Fangraphs scales, I'd have him at:

Ceiling: 80 hit 60 game power (50 raw) 80 speed 60 arm 70 field

Floor: 50 hit 30 game power (30 raw) 80 speed 40 arm 50 field

Obviously the top one is a perennial all-star while the bottom one is a fringe major leaguer. Also obviously the bottom outcome is more likely than the top outcome, but when there is a player where the top outcome is considered any more likely than the absolute fringe of chances, they typically go 1-1.

[Dick Allen]

6 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

I'm not expecting that result, it's just the realistic ceiling I see in him. And of course he probably has less than a 5% chance of reaching that ceiling, but that's why drafting, especially in the top 5 or 10, is about both ceiling and floor. Madrigal has one of the highest perceived floors in the draft, maybe even the highest. One of the biggest knocks on him that I've seen is the lack of a high ceiling, but I think that has to do with old scouting tropes that haven't quite died off yet, mostly related to his size, like that his power potential and defensive range will be limited. I don't buy into those tropes, so I see a much higher ceiling than most are willing to acknowledge with him. On the Fangraphs scales, I'd have him at:

Ceiling: 80 hit 60 game power (50 raw) 80 speed 60 arm 70 field

Floor: 50 hit 30 game power (30 raw) 80 speed 40 arm 50 field

Obviously the top one is a perennial all-star while the bottom one is a fringe major leaguer. Also obviously the bottom outcome is more likely than the top outcome, but when there is a player where the top outcome is considered any more likely than the absolute fringe of chances, they typically go 1-1.

That's my deal. If he were 6'0" tall, there's a pretty decent chance he goes 1-1. He'd be gone by 1-2 for sure IMO.

[yesterday333]

12 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

That's my deal. If he were 6'0" tall, there's a pretty decent chance he goes 1-1. He'd be gone by 1-2 for sure IMO.

I totally agree with you. which means he is a steal at 1-4! I really hope he is not gone by our pick.

[bmags]

It's not expecting Madrigal to be Altuve, it's just that 4-5 years ago when you'd have Madrigal the question would be "okay great player, but he's 5'7, what are the chances that guy pans out"?

Then, you'd have Pedroia. Now, you have Albies and Altuve lighting up the world, and Pedroia. You just happen to have 3 2b, all small, as some of the best hitters in the game (or were).

So it's not he WILL be Altuve, it's that the ceiling is not where we think it is just because of size. He may very well just be a high contact versatile infielder, but the other reason I like him is that sort of hit tool is needed on this team. The astros cut a lot of high-k players and their offense exploded. Ks in and of themselves aren't bad, but if no one is ever putting ball in play you miss some opportunities over the year that add up.

[turnin' two]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

So it's not he WILL be Altuve, it's that the ceiling is not where we think it is just because of size. He may very well just be a high contact versatile infielder, but the other reason I like him is that sort of hit tool is needed on this team. The astros cut a lot of high-k players and their offense exploded. Ks in and of themselves aren't bad, but if no one is ever putting ball in play you miss some opportunities over the year that add up.

I think not drafting him because of his size would be silly.  Just like not drafting Bohm because he is too big would be silly.  Draft the guy you think will be the best player. 

I agree with you on the skill set.  Having a guy in the lineup that doesn't K, and puts the ball in play seems really good to have in my opinion.

[OmarComing25]

23 minutes ago, bmags said:

It's not expecting Madrigal to be Altuve, it's just that 4-5 years ago when you'd have Madrigal the question would be "okay great player, but he's 5'7, what are the chances that guy pans out"?

Then, you'd have Pedroia. Now, you have Albies and Altuve lighting up the world, and Pedroia. You just happen to have 3 2b, all small, as some of the best hitters in the game (or were).

So it's not he WILL be Altuve, it's that the ceiling is not where we think it is just because of size. He may very well just be a high contact versatile infielder, but the other reason I like him is that sort of hit tool is needed on this team. The astros cut a lot of high-k players and their offense exploded. Ks in and of themselves aren't bad, but if no one is ever putting ball in play you miss some opportunities over the year that add up.

Great post. The point of the comparisons to other short second basemen who have become excellent hitters is to refute the idea that Madrigal has a lower ceiling because of his stature. We've seen too many of these types recently tap into power that nobody thought they could have to make me think that Madrigal would be completely incapable of doing the same thing. And even if he doesn't do it he'll still likely be a good enough hitter. At this point I'm going to be pretty disappointed if we end up with anyone but Madrigal, unless Mize somehow falls.

[GreenSox]

5 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

Tradeable assets are fungible in an open economy. Take the most valuable asset.

Exactly.

This isn't the NFL where you may draft to fill a need next year.  This is 2-3 years down the road, if not more.   Get the best players you can...things will sort out.  And all other things being equal, up the middle infielders > corner IF or OF.

I like the idea  of an athletic 3B, rather than someone who should be playing 1B.  Bregman can play SS, e.g.

Edited May 21, 2018 by GreenSox

[Lillian]

I agree completely with those who assert that Madrigal's small stature should not be viewed as a negative, much less a disqualifier. In fact, I have long suspected that there are a couple of distinct advantages to being a very small hitter. The obvious plus is that the strike zone is smaller, thus posing a bigger challenge to pitchers. The other factor is something that I have never read, but am inclined to think is valid, that is that the swing plane is shorter for a little guy. That in turn can result in a similar consequence to the oft cited bat speed. While it doesn't produce the same power, it does allow the hitter to catch up to high velocity pitches. If anyone knows more about this hypothesis, I'd love to hear about it.

[BamaDoc]

There is a simple rule at all levels of baseball......If you hit well enough, they will find a place for you to play.  That adage works for guys who are defensive butchers.  By all accounts Madrigal is very good at second, could possibly handle SS and is the kind of baseball rat who could learn/handle the outfield(have you seen the defense of our major league outfielders this year?)  If we are talking possible batting champion or high OBP leadoff man you take him and figure it out.  Players get hurt, traded etc.  I would love a high OBP leadoff guy with good speed.  It would allow Moncada more RBI chances and frankly we really don't have a lot of leadoff type guys.  Maybe he becomes a Zobrist type playing everyday but all over the field as you rest/rotate players thru DH?

[caulfield12]

26 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

There is a simple rule at all levels of baseball......If you hit well enough, they will find a place for you to play.  That adage works for guys who are defensive butchers.  By all accounts Madrigal is very good at second, could possibly handle SS and is the kind of baseball rat who could learn/handle the outfield(have you seen the defense of our major league outfielders this year?)  If we are talking possible batting champion or high OBP leadoff man you take him and figure it out.  Players get hurt, traded etc.  I would love a high OBP leadoff guy with good speed.  It would allow Moncada more RBI chances and frankly we really don't have a lot of leadoff type guys.  Maybe he becomes a Zobrist type playing everyday but all over the field as you rest/rotate players thru DH?

See also Jose Ramirez, Chone Figgins, Whit Merrifield, Marwin Gonzalez, Bregman, Baez, etc.

[fathom]

If you want to keep Yoan at lead off, someone like Madrigal could be a great 2nd hitter 

[southsider2k5]

34 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

See also Jose Ramirez, Chone Figgins, Whit Merrifield, Marwin Gonzalez, Bregman, Baez, etc.

Lol.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Lol.

Is it more interesting to write we should have a "versatile multi-positional player" who can handle all the infield and outfield positions, fields "above average to Gold Glove level" and runs well?

Okay.  Exciting stuff.

Of course, we've already had four players like that in recent years...so they need to hit for a 850 OPS as well.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Is it more interesting to write we should have a "versatile multi-positional player" who can handle all the infield and outfield positions, fields "above average to Gold Glove level" and runs well?

Okay.  Exciting stuff.

Of course, we've already had four players like that in recent years...so they need to hit for a 850 OPS as well.

Nah lists of names are more fun

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Nah lists of names are more fun

Everyone has to read through those same lists of names for player comps in draft threads that are wildly inaccurate as well.

So who would you compare him to?  

How about I just come up with a cliche like Nuke LaLoosh..."every player has his own unique traits and characteristics, we shouldn't try to compare one with another but allow everyone to find their own path in the game..."

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

12 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Adam Eaton is a little guy too. A guy like him capable of playing middle infield seems like a really nice player to me.  Lillian liked Madrigal but then saw a youtube video of some guys who think they are experts ripping his swing, so her opinion drastically changed. Now the guy can't do anything. His .458 batting average kind of implies he can hit.

Irrelevant observation, I had no idea Lillian was a female. 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

7 hours ago, Lillian said:

I agree completely with those who assert that Madrigal's small stature should not be viewed as a negative, much less a disqualifier. In fact, I have long suspected that there are a couple of distinct advantages to being a very small hitter. The obvious plus is that the strike zone is smaller, thus posing a bigger challenge to pitchers. The other factor is something that I have never read, but am inclined to think is valid, that is that the swing plane is shorter for a little guy. That in turn can result in a similar consequence to the oft cited bat speed. While it doesn't produce the same power, it does allow the hitter to catch up to high velocity pitches. If anyone knows more about this hypothesis, I'd love to hear about it.

That makes sense to me. It's easier/quicker to wag your finger rapidly than it is to wave your arm rapidly. It would make sense that the short your levers, the quicker (and possibly with more control) you can swing your bat through the zone. I wonder if it would be similar to a player choking up on the bat, in theory.

[Lillian]

3 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

That makes sense to me. It's easier/quicker to wag your finger rapidly than it is to wave your arm rapidly. It would make sense that the short your levers, the quicker (and possibly with more control) you can swing your bat through the zone. I wonder if it would be similar to a player choking up on the bat, in theory.

Thank you for entertaining this notion, and helping to begin a discussion, on the subject. Yes, short arms and a shorter bat, should be able to reach the hitting zone, more rapidly, given the same bat speed, simply because the distance traversed is less. Of course, the bigger man is able to compensate by generating more bat speed and thus more power. I'd love to see an article, on the subject, but a discussion, here on this forum could be just as informative, with some of our astute posters. I hope that this discussion won't hijack the thread, but since we have been discussing Madrigal, a thorough examination of the size factor seems appropriate. 

[BamaDoc]

I would think/hope that swing tracking technology (used a lot in golf) is done in practice sessions and preseason especially where you could try different bats and lengths.  The weight/mass of a bat also impacts the speed and control as it is easier to accelerate or decelerate a lighter object than a heavier one.  Many anecdotes of players going to a lighter bat when tired/later in the season.  Nowdays you don't have to guess or feel if it is different, you can get objective data.  You should be able to find the optimum speed mass setup to produce the most force/power.  Thinking back I remember........force= mass x acceleration       Sorry if hijacking.  I have heard our minor league pitchers talk about being given pitching data.  It would be interesting to hear if our hitters are doing higher tech stuff.  At one time, it was high tech for all guys to get eye exams, know routine.

[35thstreetswarm]

The Athletic mock draft goes Mize, Bart, Madrigal, Bohm, Singer, which lines up with my prediction/fear.  I’m not sure why Philly passes on Madrigal, no matter what Law says.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Thinking of Alec Bohm. Isn't is profile similar to that of Kris Bryant when he came out in the draft? Tall 3B with fringe defense who have huge power, but also really good plate discipline?

[joejoedairy]

It would be great if Bohm fell to us. The guy is going to hit, and hit for power. 

If he has to move to 1B down the line, so be it. 

[35thstreetswarm]

9 minutes ago, joejoedairy said:

It would be great if Bohm fell to us. The guy is going to hit, and hit for power. 

If he has to move to 1B down the line, so be it. 

Yeah, I think there's a good chance, and I'd be fine with anybody in that top four.  I just really want Madrigal.