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2018 MLB Draft


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1 minute ago, bmags said:

Feels like Schnell at 46 overslot is more likely than schnell at 4. Crappy midwest weather, below average runner, you could see some looking elsewhere in a deep class.

I'm not that worried. In terms of player type in this draft I'd like if we could pull off

round 1 - college hitter

round 2 - prep pitcher

round 3 - prep hitter

round 4 - college pitcher

round 5 - college pitcher

then a bunch of college hitters and after 8 whatever.

I think you may have to guarantee Schnell close to $3 million to slide him to #46. If they do that and pay $6.4 million for #4, they only have like a little over $1 million for rounds 3-10. I think he's going in the late first or comp round easily. You'll have to overpay that price to get him later. I don't see it. 

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10 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I just don't see any way in which they can slide Nick Schnell to #46. Someone will take him before that and the White Sox won't have enough savings on #4 to make a deal with him. If they "have to have" Nick Schnell then they need to underslot him at #4 in my opinion. Hostetler has alluded to him for the last month though. Hostetler has been saying 6-7 guys in their "mix at #4" and one additional guy in the north that they just started to get a look at. That was like 4 weeks ago. Everyone assumed that he meant Jarred Kelenic. He actually meant Nick Schnell. Now, he could be 100% lying that Schnell is actually in the mix but if he's being honest then he's an option. Even Mayo said he's a backup plan. I think there's a scenario where it's an option though. Lets say the Sox really love Mize, Singer and Madrigal and would take any of the 3. It's conceivable that all 3 could be gone when they pick. In that case, they may believe that giving Schnell something in the $3-$3.5 million range and saving $7 million is a better use of resources than paying Bohm, Bart, Swaggerty etc the full $6.4 million slot. I think something like that is the only way though. I still think Singer is the pick if available. 

I forgot who said it, but one of the analysts said Schnell has actually been sliding lately. There are concerns about him being able to catch up to speed because he takes everything opposite way right now and scouts aren't sure he does it on purpose but that he is actually just late on everything. 

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1 minute ago, GenericUserName said:

I forgot who said it, but one of the analysts said Schnell has actually been sliding lately. There are concerns about him being able to catch up to speed because he takes everything opposite way right now and scouts aren't sure he does it on purpose but that he is actually just late on everything. 

That's fine and it could be true. It could also be scouts of teams in the comp round trying to push him down the board. 

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3 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

That's fine and it could be true. It could also be scouts of teams in the comp round trying to push him down the board. 

Maybe, but considering the only indication that Schnell was in play at 4 was Mayo saying we had guys at his games while all the other analysts say he isn't in play at 4, it seems likely he isn't in play at 4 and that we just had guys checking out someone they really like in the second round. 

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38 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

So tanking for Beer was fake news?

I took it as more of a tagline for embracing the rebuild (and the inevitable sucking that was to come) rather than specifically wanting him...Tank for Beer was way catchier than, suck for best player available or lose for a higher draft pick.

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3 minutes ago, GenericUserName said:

Maybe, but considering the only indication that Schnell was in play at 4 was Mayo saying we had guys at his games while all the other analysts say he isn't in play at 4, it seems likely he isn't in play at 4 and that we just had guys checking out someone they really like in the second round. 

Hostetler has included Schnell in his group of guys being considered at #4 though unless he's lying which could be true. Mayo specifically said that he's a Plan B at #4. Why are we doubting that information? I don't just assume that he's wrong because it's not my ideal outcome. 

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12 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Hostetler has included Schnell in his group of guys being considered at #4 though unless he's lying which could be true. Mayo specifically said that he's a Plan B at #4. Why are we doubting that information? I don't just assume that he's wrong because it's not my ideal outcome. 

Schnell at 4 would be a massive reach, which should save at least $3 million in pool money.  That would mean that the Sox would go heavy prep in the first 5-10 rounds  and already have several guys lined up.  That would be interesting to watch unfold.

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15 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Hostetler has included Schnell in his group of guys being considered at #4 though unless he's lying which could be true. Mayo specifically said that he's a Plan B at #4. Why are we doubting that information? I don't just assume that he's wrong because it's not my ideal outcome. 

Isn't it just your working assumption that he was talking about Schnell and not Kelenic? 

The thing with Schnell is if you don't take him at 4, you probably only have a 10-15% chance of getting him at 47. But if you take him over available talents like Madrigal/Bohm/Swaggarty etc, you have a 0% chance of those guys falling back. I'm not crazy about this strategy, especially a HS outfielder almost certainly to be a corner bat.

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And we'll know the answer soon, folks!

Like many of you -- love this time of year. This draft is particularly important given the rebuild. It's a shame that this is one of those years with limited or no "super talents" at the top. Personally, I think Mize is without question the only definite superior talent on the board. You can pick 10-20 other names and make a case for a future outstanding career, but all come with projection concerns. 

If I'm the Sox, I go into the draft with this board:

Mize  -- unlikely that he falls, but strangers things have happened

Madrigal / Bohm -- whichever is available, if both, then Madrigal

If all three of the above are taken, then best available physical talent with the chance of being an impact big leaguer (I'd consider Kelenic, Swaggerty, India, and even Gorman -- I'm not on the Singer train because that style of player is ubiquitous and we have a good track record of either developing them or finding them elsewhere).

And then, later in the draft -- PREP players over and over again, balancing out the system for the longer-term.

Going to first Sox game of the year on Saturday. '83 Road Jerseys. Joked with a friend before I bought the tickets prior to the beginning of the year, I knew that somehow I'd get a Shields start. Reflection on how tough this year has been is that it turns out that 2018 Shields is my very best chance to see a Sox win. Who would have thunk that?

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4 minutes ago, CyAcosta41 said:

And we'll know the answer soon, folks!

Like many of you -- love this time of year. This draft is particularly important given the rebuild. It's a shame that this is one of those years with limited or no "super talents" at the top. Personally, I think Mize is without question the only definite superior talent on the board. You can pick 10-20 other names and make a case for a future outstanding career, but all come with projection concerns. 

If I'm the Sox, I go into the draft with this board:

Mize  -- unlikely that he falls, but strangers things have happened

Madrigal / Bohm -- whichever is available, if both, then Madrigal

If all three of the above are taken, then best available physical talent with the chance of being an impact big leaguer (I'd consider Kelenic, Swaggerty, India, and even Gorman -- I'm not on the Singer train because that style of player is ubiquitous and we have a good track record of either developing them or finding them elsewhere).

And then, later in the draft -- PREP players over and over again, balancing out the system for the longer-term.

Going to first Sox game of the year on Saturday. '83 Road Jerseys. Joked with a friend before I bought the tickets prior to the beginning of the year, I knew that somehow I'd get a Shields start. Reflection on how tough this year has been is that it turns out that 2018 Shields is my very best chance to see a Sox win. Who would have thunk that?

Bart will likely be picked in the top 3, but in the first round, they only need a board of 4. If I was making that board, it would be:

1) Mize

2) Madrigal

3) Bohm

4) Bart

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2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I just don't see any way in which they can slide Nick Schnell to #46. Someone will take him before that and the White Sox won't have enough savings on #4 to make a deal with him. If they "have to have" Nick Schnell then they need to underslot him at #4 in my opinion. Hostetler has alluded to him for the last month though. Hostetler has been saying 6-7 guys in their "mix at #4" and one additional guy in the north that they just started to get a look at. That was like 4 weeks ago. Everyone assumed that he meant Jarred Kelenic. He actually meant Nick Schnell. Now, he could be 100% lying that Schnell is actually in the mix but if he's being honest then he's an option. Even Mayo said he's a backup plan. I think there's a scenario where it's an option though. Lets say the Sox really love Mize, Singer and Madrigal and would take any of the 3. It's conceivable that all 3 could be gone when they pick. In that case, they may believe that giving Schnell something in the $3-$3.5 million range and saving $7 million is a better use of resources than paying Bohm, Bart, Swaggerty etc the full $6.4 million slot. I think something like that is the only way though. I still think Singer is the pick if available. 

Good post.  Obviously incredibly unlikely scenario but I swear I read somewhere that teams were getting cold on Schnell because of his Louisville commitment so maybe there is a non-zero chance he slips?  You’re right, money becomes as issue at that point, but the difference in slot value between #46 and the first set of comp picks is only $400k to $600k.  A couple senior signings in rounds 8-10 plus maybe some slight savings with our first pick (they could shop it a bit to guys in our general range) could get us there. Maybe that’s not enough, but perhaps joining an organization relatively close to his hometown is appealing.  I agree it’s a long-shot, but I’m not completely giving up hope.

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7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Good post.  Obviously incredibly unlikely scenario but I swear I read somewhere that teams were getting cold on Schnell because of his Louisville commitment so maybe there is a non-zero chance he slips?  You’re right, money becomes as issue at that point, but the difference in slot value between #46 and the first set of comp picks is only $400k to $600k.  A couple senior signings in rounds 8-10 plus maybe some slight savings with our first pick (they could shop it a bit to guys in our general range) could get us there. Maybe that’s not enough, but perhaps joining an organization relatively close to his hometown is appealing.  I agree it’s a long-shot, but I’m not completely giving up hope.

Longenhagen said yesterday in his chat they heard he was slipping.

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Just now, DirtySox said:

Longenhagen said yesterday in his chat they heard he was slipping.

Thanks, that’s where I saw it.  I might be wrong about the reason, but regardless it’s more likely IMO that a Midwestern prep could fall to #46 than your typical high school prospect.  I’m not ruling it out just yet.

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1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

Taking Schnell at #4 in hopes that a decent HS player slips past the Rays/Royals to round 2 would be pure nonsense.

Do you really think the Sox will use thier higher picks on HS? That just seems so unlike their usual picks.

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1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

Taking Schnell at #4 in hopes that a decent HS player slips past the Rays/Royals to round 2 would be pure nonsense.

Maybe to hope on one guys would be foolish, but it is pretty much a guarantee that some decent HS players get to round 2.  There are still only 46 picks ahead of the Sox 2nd rounder.  

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12 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Do you really think the Sox will use thier higher picks on HS? That just seems so unlike their usual picks.

No -- but those are the guys you're trying to get if you go underslot early, especially in this class.

I don't think the Sox would do this. It's too dumb. I think this is another example of a lack of Mayo's understanding of scouting that's causing bad info to float around.

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Heck yeah, I want some f

18 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Well, I for one, am excited about tin foil hat scenario.  Those are my favorite.  

Heck yeah, I want some off the wall stuff. 

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