Fangraphs not optimistic on Anderson's bat

[NCsoxfan]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-al-hit...-al-shortstops/

 

Rookie Tim Anderson impacted the baseball significantly harder than most of the shortstops in the nether regions of this list, but was done in by horrific K and BB rates. His raw numbers create the illusion of a respectable season with the bat, but the exit-speed and launch-angle data simply don’t support it. The difference between his Unadjusted and Adjusted Contact Scores is sizable across BIP types: 115 to 94 for fly balls, 130 to 94 for liners, 142 to 96 for grounders, and 128 to 96 overall. Plus, his K and BB rates were awful throughout his minor-league career, as well. Defense, of course, will play into whether he keeps his job over the long haul, but I’m not terribly optimistic about his bat.

[3GamesToLove]

Yeah, I'm not crazy high on Anderson. I think he can be an average major league regular, which is a coup for the Sox considering their track record in developing position players, but I think it's misguided to talk about him as a future star.

[shipps]

I know I will get ripped by all the metrics people but this means nothing to me personally. I know what I seen from him last year and it was pretty damn encouraging. Now he may have a down year come next year with pitchers making adjustments and the team probably overall sucking as a whole may lead to some lack of intensity everyday from him. We have known that his walk rate would be something of an issue for him, hopefully he continues to work on that.

[username]

I see what the author is looking at, and I'm usually a huge believer in batted ball stats. But I think the author is missing a few key things:

 

1) Anderson has ALWAYS been a guy people think will suffer regression. Take a look at his BABIP numbers for his entire career. Maybe it's time to just grasp that he's a bit different - and his 70+ speed and high exit velo's at least partially explain it.

 

2) He's extremely raw. At every level his BB rate has gone from horrific and improved until being passable. Give him some time.

 

3) The power. It was pretty clear by the eye test that Anderson has some real raw power lurking in there. Players don't come into the league with their power figured out often - look at Eaton of all people. If he can keep upping his ISO numbers he'll be totally fine even without walking enough.

 

I really am a big believer in fangraphs, and the methods they use. But Anderson is simply a different cat. He's a quick study and has constantly defied the advanced metrics.

Edited December 9, 2016 by Username

[bmags]

Well, the crazy thing about Anderson is his value may be tied to his defense. The hope with him is he was so raw and moved so aggressively, he's never had a chance to build at any level. We'll see how he does.

 

His hands are so fast and strong I'm optimistic.

[Rowand44]

He's got a long way to go but he's proven he can adjust and get better at every level. He's a guy I expect to keep developing more and more and getting better and better.

[steveno89]

Well, the crazy thing about Anderson is his value may be tied to his defense. The hope with him is he was so raw and moved so aggressively, he's never had a chance to build at any level. We'll see how he does.

 

His hands are so fast and strong I'm optimistic.

 

Anderson has hit for average at every level he has been at, likely due to his plus speed

 

If he can hold up the plus defense from last season he will be at least an average mlb starter, which is very valuable at SS

[chw42]

Advanced metrics guys will never like players like Anderson who can't walk. The fact his plate discipline hasn't really developed at all does not help.

[Bob Sacamano]

Do you guys see him as the leadoff hitter for next season? Or maybe a competition with Tilson?

[Hatchetman]

the guy has continued to improve at baseball every year he's played. when that stops nobody knows.

[Quin]

Anderson seems ready to learn and develop his patience at the plate, so we can see what happens next year.

[Dick Allen]

I don't see how anyone can come to any conclusion that Tim Anderson won't be a decent hitter based on where he is in his career and 2016 numbers. TBH, his numbers were a lot better than I thought they would be. Sure, he could be a guy like Avi who had a nice run with the bat but it wasn't sustainable, or he could be a guy that develops. If his walk and k rate remain the same, Fangraphs has a point. If he adjusts, it's silly talk.

[Bob Sacamano]

I don't see how anyone can come to any conclusion that Tim Anderson won't be a decent hitter based on where he is in his career and 2016 numbers. TBH, his numbers were a lot better than I thought they would be. Sure, he could be a guy like Avi who had a nice run with the bat but it wasn't sustainable, or he could be a guy that develops. If his walk and k rate remain the same, Fangraphs has a point. If he adjusts, it's silly talk.

 

I do agree that he did better than I thought that he would do. Hopefully he develops some patience at the plate and continues improving defensively.

[bmags]

Advanced metrics guys will never like players like Anderson who can't walk. The fact his plate discipline hasn't really developed at all does not help.

 

I am totally speaking with my heart here, but because he always is starting at a new level, it seems like he gets comfortable by swinging his bat.

 

But look at his walk totals by month last year:

June - 1

July - 1

August - 5

September/Oct - 6

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?p...amp;season=2016

 

So that's a 5% walk rate in Aug/Sept. If that's what he tops out at, that's not great. But I think we'll see him improve even more to maybe 8% next year. He may top out at that but it's better than 3%.

 

He had a really great Aug/Sept but if he walked 8% of the time with his high average that would have put him at a .350 OBP.

 

But that's if he improves, if he stays at the 5% we are still looking at Alexei Ramirez with better base running if his defense gets better.

 

But yeah, his average could drop. And if it drops to .260 with a .290 obp his defense will have to be amazing.

[iamshack]

I want the guy to succeed, but I don't like what I see any more than I didn't like what I saw from Dayan or Avi.

 

A lot of the better prospects we might look to acquire at the moment are shortstops. I know this will be unpopular, but I wouldn't let Tim Anderson stop me from acquiring one with the intent to keep him the newly acquired player there.

[buckweaver]

Someone can double-check the exact number, but I am nearly certain that Anderson's TWTW metrics are sky high.

[Dick Allen]

Can I ask why we should be pessimistic about Anderson, but a guy like Giolito should excite us?

[iamshack]

Can I ask why we should be pessimistic about Anderson, but a guy like Giolito should excite us?

We seem to actually be able to scout/develop decent pitchers

[caulfield12]

Anderson has much better hands and more whip or lag in his swing by far...compared to Avi, Beckham or Viciedo. Dayan could swing hard, but lacked the hand eye coordination. And he can turn on a fastball, rather than being a better offspeed hitter and trying to dial it up but always being in between due to the inability to cover a plus or high fastball.

 

Eaton, for example, is projected to be at 3.6 war this year (not sure if that accounts for troubles in CF upcoming.) Wouldn't shock me if Tim beat that.

Edited December 9, 2016 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

We seem to actually be able to scout/develop decent pitchers

Fangraphs ripped him.

 

We will see what happens. Anderson had an incredible BABIP, but someone compared him to Marte, and he has similar BABIP for his career.

 

This guy just hasn't played much, and has never been on the same level for long. I don't think there is any conclusion that can be drawn until we see what he does. He could be a guy who makes major adjustments, strikes out less and walks more, or he could be a guy with a .268 OBP in July 2017. He looked a lot better to me than expected, and the ball does jump off his bat. I'm sure there are tons of guys who have become pretty good hitters who fangraphs would have written off as someone with Anderson's experience.

Edited December 9, 2016 by Dick Allen

[Jake]

There are reasons for serious concern with Anderson, but he could get slightly worse with the bat and still be a useful player due to his defense and the position he plays. The optimistic case for him is that he was an inexperienced player when he was drafted and has basically never had the chance to spend much time at any level. It isn't crazy to think that getting settled in at the MLB level, where he can't be pushed to any higher levels of competition, might result in improvements across the board.

 

I also think that his Adjusted Contact score is not a bad sign. Suggests that more balls in play is his main hurdle, which I think is the most likely improvement he will make (lower K%, that is).

Edited December 10, 2016 by Jake

[beautox]

Fangraphs ripped him.

 

We will see what happens. Anderson had an incredible BABIP, but someone compared him to Marte, and he has similar BABIP for his career.

 

This guy just hasn't played much, and has never been on the same level for long. I don't think there is any conclusion that can be drawn until we see what he does. He could be a guy who makes major adjustments, strikes out less and walks more, or he could be a guy with a .268 OBP in July 2017. He looked a lot better to me than expected, and the ball does jump off his bat. I'm sure there are tons of guys who have become pretty good hitters who fangraphs would have written off as someone with Anderson's experience.

That was me, I did a deep dive on him and I think if you look at both their minor and major league career you're looking at a similar hitting profile to Marte; that would be great because if that is his hitting profile while playing a + defensive shortstop you're looking at a 4-6 win player. Tim is going to be fine people like to point to his walk rate going up in the second half and they should but while doing that his wRC+ went down as well as his power, he wasn't selling out to crush it and being more selective at the plate, his development will not be linear and he has shown a propensity to get comfortable at every level and then be pushed by this org, well there is no where for him to go so i expect to see him get really comfortable with the speed of the major league game.

 

The thought of a 10-12 win middle infield should get people excited between Tim and Yoan and if Tim delivers this year like I personally believe he will I would love for the org to offer up a deal similar to Altuve to Marte $30m+ / 6 Years + 2 options.

[Jake]

Something I think is encouraging about Anderson is it looks to me that while he has very bad plate discipline, I think his pitch recognition isn't bad. Some players are undisciplined but also have bad pitch recognition, which is very tough to teach. I think Avisail Garcia is a player who has bad pitch recognition, so even when he has a good plan at the plate he may end up swinging at bad pitches because he failed to realize what it was he was swinging at. With Anderson, even when he flails at a slider, he often looks to me like he knew it from the start but just couldn't stop himself from pulling the trigger. If I'm right, it won't take an amazing feat of coaching to get his strikeout rate down.

[username]

Something I think is encouraging about Anderson is it looks to me that while he has very bad plate discipline, I think his pitch recognition isn't bad. Some players are undisciplined but also have bad pitch recognition, which is very tough to teach. I think Avisail Garcia is a player who has bad pitch recognition, so even when he has a good plan at the plate he may end up swinging at bad pitches because he failed to realize what it was he was swinging at. With Anderson, even when he flails at a slider, he often looks to me like he knew it from the start but just couldn't stop himself from pulling the trigger. If I'm right, it won't take an amazing feat of coaching to get his strikeout rate down.

 

Totally agreed. Numbers can tell part of the story, but he just looked different up there than free swingers like Avi. Very rarely did he look helpless against even tough pitches, and some of his tough takes late in the season really displayed improved pitch recognition.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Yeah, I'm not crazy high on Anderson. I think he can be an average major league regular, which is a coup for the Sox considering their track record in developing position players, but I think it's misguided to talk about him as a future star.

Im not high on Anderson, either. I think he's just another strikeout commando, which will lead him to peak as a middle infield bench player. Sure, he can catch, and he can run. But that will mean exactly Jack and s*** if he can't get on base.

 

Do you guys see him as the leadoff hitter for next season? Or maybe a competition with Tilson?

I absolutely HATE this moronic idea that speedy strikeout commandos should be batted high in the order. Nothing about his game suggests that he'll ever be able to get on base enough to EARN the leadoff spot.

 

Of course, this means that this stupid organization will bat him first as he Ks his way to a craptacular .280 OBP, which will hurt the entire lineup, & the trade prospects for everyone else in it.