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Predict Thy Numbers: Tim Anderson


hi8is

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QUOTE (ypres @ Jan 13, 2017 -> 11:14 AM)
220/280/440.

 

3 HR, 12 SB

 

Yikes, that would be awful

 

Not sure how Anderson's bat would regress that much to be a .220 hitter with his speed

 

I'd like to see Anderson steal more often in 2017 and put that speed to use

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QUOTE (ypres @ Jan 13, 2017 -> 11:14 AM)
220/280/440.

 

3 HR, 12 SB

 

This projection doesn't make sense. If Anderson has a .220 ISO and walks at a ~8% clip, he might be an MVP candidate. There's no way under those conditions that his bat would have regressed so much that he only hits .220, especially since his BABIP luck is likely to be favorable due to his speed. Also, how does he hit a .220 ISO with 3 HR? Do you have him hitting 40 triples? And if so, how could you be so unfavorable on a BABIP luck projection? At a 30% K rate (unlikely), that represents about a 60 point drop in BABIP, whereas at a 25% K rate (more likely), that represents about an 80 point drop in BABIP, which also would put him below league average for BABIP. This all just seems statistically implausible to me.

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  • 6 months later...
QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Dec 21, 2016 -> 05:07 AM)
I'd expect a step backwards offensively unless he drastically changes his approach. His BB and K% were horrendous and he didn't hit the ball hard enough to make up for this, he got pretty lucky.

 

I'll go .267/.299/.395.

Yikes, who would have thought this would be hella optimistic.

 

.242/.265/.362.

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