Also logical landing places for Abreu/Frazier/Cabrera

[thxfrthmmrs]

The problem is those guys have about zero surplus value.

 

I don't think teams operate solely under surplus value philosophy (let's get into the Shelby Miller trade). The marginal upgrade they get in return plays a bigger role IMO. Take Robertson for example, closers rarely have any surplus value, but there are always teams in the market for them. Robertson may as well be the best closer available right now. If I am a contending team and in need of a closer, I'd give Robertson a serious look.

 

For Frazier, while he certainly has surplus value, there are also teams who do not take WAR as a bible, and the 35 HR power, the above average defense he could play at third, and his locker room presence fits many needs for them.

[southsider2k5]

Frazier will probably be a 3 WAR player next year getting paid like 1.5 to 2 WAR player, so he certainly should have some surplus value. He is also a good enough player to warrant a QO and will likely return the acquiring team a draft pick. We should most definitely be able to get something of value for him. The Giants seem like a good fit to me.

 

We have seen over and over again that one dimensional power bats don't have nearly as much value as they should on the open market right now. If Frazier was a FA, his annual rate would be really close to what he is expected to get this year in Arb.The only thing he has going for him is that he only has one year of obligation coming up, instead of the 2 or 3 he'd get as a FA.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

We have seen over and over again that one dimensional power bats don't have nearly as much value as they should on the open market right now. If Frazier was a FA, his annual rate would be really close to what he is expected to get this year in Arb.The only thing he has going for him is that he only has one year of obligation coming up, instead of the 2 or 3 he'd get as a FA.

If by one dimensional you mean all he can do batting is hit HR's then I guess he is one dimensional. However, the true meaning of one dimensional since you are comparing him to guys on the open market now is power while being severely limited defensively.

 

Since Frazier plays 3rd base and plays it decently I wouldn't classify him as 1 dimensional. Thus the logic behind your opinion of his value falls short.

[southsider2k5]

If by one dimensional you mean all he can do batting is hit HR's then I guess he is one dimensional. However, the true meaning of one dimensional since you are comparing him to guys on the open market now is power while being severely limited defensively.

 

Since Frazier plays 3rd base and plays it decently I wouldn't classify him as 1 dimensional. Thus the logic behind your opinion of his value falls short.

 

Todd Frazier on the open market would get how much per year? If EE is a $20 million player, Frazier is probably in the $12 to 15 million range, tops? His arb estimate this year is $13.5 million.

 

He is a one dimensional hitter, who had by far his worst year defensively. He put up big negatives in UZR and Range factor. He even put up a Dwar that was negative by two wins. That would make him a one dimensional player.

[Jerksticks]

Todd Frazier on the open market would get how much per year? If EE is a $20 million player, Frazier is probably in the $12 to 15 million range, tops? His arb estimate this year is $13.5 million.

 

He is a one dimensional hitter, who had by far his worst year defensively. He put up big negatives in UZR and Range factor. He even put up a Dwar that was negative by two wins. That would make him a one dimensional player.

 

Can i play Hawk for a minute? I don't give a yahoo about the defensive "stats" Stoney, because those still have a long way to go to catch up to their offensive counterparts. I'll tell you one thing. Todd Frazier is a championship third baseman on a contender. He gets his butt down on every pitch and he'll get every routine ball hit his way. He can even sprinkle in some big-time plays at some really big times. Is he Nolan Arenado or Adrian Beltre over there? No. But he's a chanpionship third baseman. Lotta teams at the deadline with a hole over there will be looking for a guy like that.

[hi8is]

Can i play Hawk for a minute? I don't give a yahoo about the defensive "stats" Stoney, because those still have a long way to go to catch up to their offensive counterparts. I'll tell you one thing. Todd Frazier is a championship third baseman on a contender. He gets his butt down on every pitch and he'll get every routine ball hit his way. He can even sprinkle in some big-time plays at some really big times. Is he Nolan Arenado or Adrian Beltre over there? No. But he's a chanpionship third baseman. Lotta teams at the deadline with a hole over there will be looking for a guy like that.

Mercy!

[thxfrthmmrs]

Todd Frazier on the open market would get how much per year? If EE is a $20 million player, Frazier is probably in the $12 to 15 million range, tops? His arb estimate this year is $13.5 million.

 

He is a one dimensional hitter, who had by far his worst year defensively. He put up big negatives in UZR and Range factor. He even put up a Dwar that was negative by two wins. That would make him a one dimensional player.

 

I think you know that UZR could be extremely volatile from year to year. Since he had a positive UZR for the past 4 years at 3B, and based on my eye test, he still fairly capable defensively at 3B, I think it's very likely he'd have a bounce back year next season, at least from a defensive metrics stand point.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Todd Frazier on the open market would get how much per year? If EE is a $20 million player, Frazier is probably in the $12 to 15 million range, tops? His arb estimate this year is $13.5 million.

 

He is a one dimensional hitter, who had by far his worst year defensively. He put up big negatives in UZR and Range factor. He even put up a Dwar that was negative by two wins. That would make him a one dimensional player.

There is probably only 1 reason for those supposedly negative defensive stats and that's Frazier's range. It's not because he is a butcher at 3rd base.The eye test will tell you he can pick it and throw it just fine. He doesn't get high marks for range but he is accurate with his throws to 2nd and 1st base . There is no where near the fear or trepidation in having him at 3rd base as there is with putting Trumbo in the OF or the 37 yr old Encarnacion or a Pedro Alvarez anywhere on the field.

 

He had a .972 fielding % whereas the avg for all 3rd basemen is .959 last year. He set career highs in assists and double plays. He is pretty much your average 3rd baseman . That is in the acceptable range not the OMG he sucks range .

 

[BlackSox13]

Good breakdown of potential fits for Frazier.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/trad...-white-sox.html

[Chicago White Sox]

Good breakdown of potential fits for Frazier.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/trad...-white-sox.html

While it's looking less and less likely a Frazier trade happens before opening day, I think that article shows that a lot of teams might be in the market for a 3B come the deadline. I think you hold him and hope to see some serious improvement in his second season in AL. I still think it's incredibly likely he'll be good enough to warrant a QO next offseason and ultimately land us a pick in a worst case scenario. I just don't see the benefit of dumping him for pennies on the dollar.

[Balta1701]

While it's looking less and less likely a Frazier trade happens before opening day, I think that article shows that a lot of teams might be in the market for a 3B come the deadline. I think you hold him and hope to see some serious improvement in his second season in AL. I still think it's incredibly likely he'll be good enough to warrant a QO next offseason and ultimately land us a pick in a worst case scenario. I just don't see the benefit of dumping him for pennies on the dollar.

Keep in mind that's a 3rd round pick for us, right? So literally that pick is pennies on the dollar.

[Chicago White Sox]

Keep in mind that's a 3rd round pick for us, right? So literally that pick is pennies on the dollar.

It would actually be a pick between the 2nd & 3rd rounds and that is the worst case scenario. If he's on pace for a 3 to 4 WAR season come the deadline, we should get a much better return than that. Again, I'm not sure why you want to give him away no matter the return.

Edited January 2, 2017 by Chicago White Sox

[Balta1701]

It would actually be a pick between the 2nd & 3rd rounds and that is the worst case scenario. If he's on pace for a 3 to 4 WAR season come the deadline, we should get a much better return than that. Again, I'm not sure why you want to give him away no matter the return.

Because I want to know if Tyler Saladino can be a big league 3b and whether his body can last 150 games and I will not know that until Tyler Saladino is penciled in to play 150 games. If he can be adequate with the bat and a strong defender at 3b, then that is another position covered with an established big leaguer without having to give up anything of value to cover the position. The more positions we do that with, the fewer we will need to fill in 2018 and 2019 via free agency and the more funds we will have available to fill those remaining positions with guys who will make a major impact.

 

But the only way I know whether or not Tyler Saladino can stay healthy and be a good enough big leaguer with strong defense is to play him there. Tyler turning into a 2 WAR player at 3b is far more valuable to me than slightly improving the return from Todd Frazier. There are 3b available next offseason and after 2018. I need to know whether my internal candidate, who has a legit chance of failing for several reasons, can be a decent player or not before I have to make those decisions.

 

Plus, saving a portion of the >$10 million Todd Frazier will be paid this year won't be a bad thing either. When you go through those player value and draft pick value estimates, his salary is worth more than that draft pick.

[beautox]

I'm torn on this because I too want to see if Saladino/Davidson/Sanchez/Leury Garcia have a future on the white sox in the infield or on the bench. Finding out if Saladino can deliver on his ceiling and become a Mark DeRosa type of player would be huge same for the rest of the lot its important to take this year and take chances on everyone mentioned above as well as Liriano, Tilson and Coats. Its entirely possible that Liriano pulls a DeAza or maybe we hit the jackpot and he delivers on his tools ala Werth, not very likely in either situation but with out the pressure to contend the sox need to see if any of these lotto tickets pan out. Same for Tilson, is he a Denard Span / Austin Jackson type of player or is he destined to become a 4th outfielder and same for Coats can he be a major league bench piece or not?

 

With Avi if he hits and delivers on his promise you ship him out and get .50c on the dollar in a similar situation to Kris Davis, that netted the brewers the #66 prospect according to BP in Nottingham, and while Nottingham struggled this last year in AA still worth it. Avi is going to continue to get more expensive and while you could probably get a deal inked with his agency octagon, they're likely better served moving him if he does hit.

 

The Cards make a lot of sense I would be open for something like this; Frazier to the cards for Jhonny Peralta, Harrison Bader and Carson Kelly. Cards clear 10m in dead salary, give up a top 100 prospect in Bader and a good looking back up catcher in Kelly.

[Con te Giolito]

Frazier's only real trade value comes in his ability to grease larger deals. If the Sox have a prospect return they like being offered but their partner wants "just a little more" Frazier is the perfect guy to plug in to get a deal done. But if those deals come and go without needing the addition of Frazier he should be sold for scraps. Clear the $13.5m arbitration figure and get a T250 prospect. Frazier may be worth more than that but the Sox aren't getting more than that for him and the Sox need his AB's to see what Saladino and perhaps Davidson have.

[iamshack]

I'd just let him have the first half to see what he can do, and then move him at the deadline.

[southsider2k5]

Because I want to know if Tyler Saladino can be a big league 3b and whether his body can last 150 games and I will not know that until Tyler Saladino is penciled in to play 150 games. If he can be adequate with the bat and a strong defender at 3b, then that is another position covered with an established big leaguer without having to give up anything of value to cover the position. The more positions we do that with, the fewer we will need to fill in 2018 and 2019 via free agency and the more funds we will have available to fill those remaining positions with guys who will make a major impact.

 

But the only way I know whether or not Tyler Saladino can stay healthy and be a good enough big leaguer with strong defense is to play him there. Tyler turning into a 2 WAR player at 3b is far more valuable to me than slightly improving the return from Todd Frazier. There are 3b available next offseason and after 2018. I need to know whether my internal candidate, who has a legit chance of failing for several reasons, can be a decent player or not before I have to make those decisions.

 

Plus, saving a portion of the >$10 million Todd Frazier will be paid this year won't be a bad thing either. When you go through those player value and draft pick value estimates, his salary is worth more than that draft pick.

 

Realistically, even if Saladino can be a 3B, I think he would be the type of 3B that you would be looking to improve upon if you were going to be a playoff team. In terms of asset valuation, the odds of Todd Frazier being able to bring you back something are much higher than Tyler Saladino. Sure he may be able to start, but I don't see him as any sort of long term starter either.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

I think Saladino is a more valuable player on a great team than on a substandard team like the Sox. On a great team you could pick your spots with him, resting your regulars as needed, and Saladino won't hurt you with his glove and his baseball smarts. But give him 135 games, and you'll see his flaws.

[chitownsportsfan]

I think Saladino is a more valuable player on a great team than on a substandard team like the Sox. On a great team you could pick your spots with him, resting your regulars as needed, and Saladino won't hurt you with his glove and his baseball smarts. But give him 135 games, and you'll see his flaws.

 

ok, but there's no reason not to give him 135 games this year.

[BlackSox13]

Definitely want to see more of Saladino in '17. To me he is the White Sox version of Boston's Brock Holt. Would be nice if the Sox found a trade partner for Frazier.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

ok, but there's no reason not to give him 135 games this year.

Well if not in a tank year, when, and I think some of the posters think it would be a good idea. That's what I was responding to. BTW I think he's a good player in a very restricted role.

[Balta1701]

Realistically, even if Saladino can be a 3B, I think he would be the type of 3B that you would be looking to improve upon if you were going to be a playoff team. In terms of asset valuation, the odds of Todd Frazier being able to bring you back something are much higher than Tyler Saladino. Sure he may be able to start, but I don't see him as any sort of long term starter either.

So, let's turn this loose and make the case. Take a look at the 2015 and 2016 White Sox, and one thing I think they have almost criminally undervalued is creating average players from their own system. This failure has propagated through their decisions over and over and it is a key part of why they were such a failure.

 

When you develop a couple of "decent" players, a couple of "average" players, what happens? You have the ability to put those guys onto your roster, play them regularly, and spend the big money elsewhere. Go to the World Series teams and you have plenty of examples just from this year - Naquin, Napoli, Chisenhall, Rajai Davis, Carlos Santana to some extent - these are guys who weren't paid a ton, but they were decent enough players. Similarly, with the Cubs - Hammel, David Ross, Coghlan, Szczur, every single one of those guys you would truthfully say "You would be looking to improve on them if you were going to be a playoff team". I totally buy that. But a true playoff team, IMO, has a handful of elite players and combines that with guys who are good enough, guys you would improve on if you could, but who are decent players and support your roster.

 

Compare that to the White Sox over the last few years and I think the mistake becomes blatant. How many decent players have the White Sox spent huge amounts of money or talent to acquire? Melky Cabrera, Brett Lawrie, their 2016 catchers, Austin Jackson, Rollins, Bonifacio, LaRoche - they have put a huge amount of resources into trying to bring some of their positions up to decent. They've said "this position is terrible and if we bring it up to decent it's a big improvement" - that statement is right, but when you're spending a ton of resources to do that, it's a major issue.

 

Counting Cabrera, Lawrie, Rollins, LaRoche, and Jackson, just for 2016, we're talking about $35 million, a 2015 3rd round pick, 2 pitchers traded for Lawrie, 2 players traded for Shields (one of whom was worth something), and even then the only reason why the back 40% of our starting rotation wasn't among the 5 worst in MLB was a guy given up for nothing by the Orioles.

 

Conversely, how many times have we seen a surge from this team just by plugging in someone "decent" at a position? 2015 there was a surge when Saladino took over 3b, we also saw such things earlier with guys like Hudson and Youkilis taking over 3b for someone terrible, Trayce taking over CF, Garcia taking over RF in 2014 when he briefly hit. How much value did the White Sox get out of having Gonzalez last year? How much of a difference did one cheap, average player make? That was the difference between an average rotation and a bottom 5 of the league rotation.

 

Basically, having a couple "average" players that we develop from our own system, guys who are average 1-2 WAR players who are paid MLB minimum, is seriously underrated by this organization. When we have those guys, we trade them for our big name additions like Frazier and Samardzija, then as a result we find ourselves having gaping holes at positions they could have filled and having to spend $10 million+ to fill those posiitons with guys who have a substantial probability of flopping. This is connected. Why did we have to spend so much on Lawrie - because we gave up on Semien. Why did we have to spend money on Jackson last year and wind up with Shuck as our starting CF? Because we gave up on Thompson.

 

When you have a couple of average MLB players in your lineup, yes you would happily replace them with all stars, but you need a couple of those even when you have all stars. If you develop them on your own, this is doing you a favor. You yourself constantly point out that the White Sox won't be a player for big name FAs. Do you know why? Because we have $12 million invested in Cabrera, $12.5 million invested in LaRoche, $5 million in Jackson, $6 million in Latos and Rollins, $4 million in Lawrie, and that doesn't count the players given up to get them. Why don't we have $25 million to go after a top flight FA? Because we don't think average players developed from our own system are worth anything. You want to know why we couldn't go after Cespedes? There's the money.

 

We're going to hopefully have some elite players from what we've traded . Hopefully we just acquired a few of them, especially in the rotation. But if you want to add an elite FA to them, you still need one other thing - you need to develop a handful of decent players on their own. If you can't do that, then you are going to wind up looking like the 2015-16 White Sox - top-heavy, with a couple of big name guys, but struggling to fill in a roster. The 2015/16 White Sox weren't an accident - it came out of this exact concept, that big names are better than filling out a roster.

 

Compared to "getting a slightly better return for Todd Frazier", I contend that a single developed, average player under team control for 3 more years is far, far more important. It is not nearly as important as "getting an all star or two back for Quintana", we should never ever ever ever ever play Saladino in front of Moncada because developing those all stars is a far higher priority. But you give me a 2 WAR, quality defensive 3b sitting next to Anderson, and I think you have made a strong upgrade to this roster. It won't put us in the playoffs on its own...but you won't be able to play the FA market effectively if you undervalue this part, because you will be spending all your FA money making up for that failure, and that is the 2015/16 White Sox.

[caulfield12]

3B Saladino

SS Anderson

2B Moncada

1B Abreu

C Collins

DH ???

LF ???

CF Let's just put someone like Lagares or Dyson there, for argument's sake (2ish WAR guys, who could get to 3 in their bodies held up over a full season, not unlike Austin Jackson 2-3 years ago)

RF Lorenzo Cain (if they can get him on a 2-3 year deal, ideally he'd be in CF but that would lead to more injuries)

 

All of a sudden, you're only one more big bat (the equivalent of an EE/Trumbo/Bautista) away from a line-up good enough to win with "sub-optimal" players in CF (where Basabe could still rise, or Engel/Tilson surprise) and 3B.

 

You simply need to find an OPS+ LF/DH and that line-up can still carry a cheaper platoon at the other spot.

 

Other than Abreu/Collins, you'd also have "plus" defenders at nearly every position, especially up the middle.

 

 

 

As has been stated over and over again, we're getting close to the point where we're not just trading for the best possible combination of talent (Meadows/Torres, etc.)...we need to be looking specifically at CF/RF/C/3B (if Frazier's not going to be re-signed and Saladino can't stay healthy, his back goes the way of Joe Crede).

 

At any rate, we've got those 2017 and 2018 draft picks...a ton of money....and 1 1/2 years of development time to essentially fill four holes, two of which are traditionally the easiest (LF/1B/DH, not sure how long Abreu stays).

 

 

If you go to the Balta argument:

 

3B Saladino

SS Anderson

2B Moncada

1B Abreu

C Collins

DH

LF Semien

CF Thompson

RF

 

That would leave them only two players short. With that logic, they could have actually kept Adam Eaton, kept Frazier and Abreu and invested all the resources of the team finding a LEGIT CFer...but the timing's just off having to wait for Moncada/Collins as their next two big franchise-altering bats.

 

Let's just say for argument's sake you put Trumbo and Bautista into that line-up, you've got a team that's borderline contending in late 2017 if Thompson and Saladino could hold up and be 2 at least WAR players. Plus you have Montas back to add to potentially the best bullpen in the majors when all the pieces arrive and the leftover starters are converted to bullpen arms or traded to fill in other holes.

 

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by caulfield12

[Con te Giolito]

Yea if organizational philosophy doesn't start valuing is own system guys as anything more than trade chips for declining assets this whole rebuild will bring us right back to where we were a year ago. 4 or 5 super studs surrounded by a rotating cast of garbage.

 

Semien in particular really stings. He's developed into a good defender (now that he isn't changing positions every week) who hit 27 HR last year and he's going into his age 26 season. OBP hasn't come along yet, but there's a player who has gotten better every year and could easily enjoy a couple 4-5 WAR seasons through his prime. Traded away needlessly for 1 year of a declining asset, hopefully Zack Burdi rescues that disaster.

[Two-Gun Pete]

I'm torn on this because I too want to see if Davidson have a future on the white sox in the infield or on the bench.

 

 

...the Sox need his AB's to see what Saladino and perhaps Davidson have.

I don't have a huge opinion either way with trading or keeping Frazier. But why do so many posters want to see a strikeout loser like Davidson? He sucks out loud at baseball, and I think he just struck out while I was posting this.

 

Trade Frazier or keep him; play or move Saladino or Sanchez, its all good. But there's really nothing to see in a career K commando like Davidson, IMHO.