southsider2k5 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 11:13 AM) So the latest two polls in Alabama are: Moore +9 (Emerson) Jones +10 (Fox news, which is a perfectly legitimate and typically good pollster) ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I get the feeling this will be a lot like the last Presidential election where a lot of people who won't admit to voting for Moore will do exactly that and Moore will outperform the polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pettie4sox Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 12:37 PM) I get the feeling this will be a lot like the last Presidential election where a lot of people who won't admit to voting for Moore will do exactly that and Moore will outperform the polls. That's a good point but to counter that maybe after Trump's victory people feel embolden to openly support a sexual predator as long as they play for your team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 QUOTE (KagakuOtoko @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 12:49 PM) That's a good point but to counter that maybe after Trump's victory people feel embolden to openly support a sexual predator as long as they play for your team? That well could be. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 It's also going to be interesting to see how the Sen. Shelby "about face" on Sunday (admitting he voted write-in GOP candidate instead of Moore) affects this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 (edited) QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 01:37 PM) I get the feeling this will be a lot like the last Presidential election where a lot of people who won't admit to voting for Moore will do exactly that and Moore will outperform the polls. that likely didn't really happen much in the election. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/shy-vo...s-missed-trump/ Edited December 12, 2017 by Reddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 (edited) https://www.yahoo.com/news/kayla-moore-anti...-034332383.html Well, the Moore family (at least his wife) does know a lawyer who is a Jew. "One of our attorneys is a Jew." (Notice she didn't say Jewish, which would have been the preferred way to express it). Glad to know they're NOT anti-Semitic!!! ALMOST starting to feel sorry for the Republican Party if he should still happen to win tomorrow night. Nate Silver gives Moore 70% odds to win Because you’ve read so much detail about the polls, I don’t want to leave you without some characterization of the race. I still think Moore is favored, although not by much; Jones’s chances are probably somewhere in the same ballpark as Trump’s were of winning the Electoral College last November (about 30 percent). The reason I say that is because in a state as red as Alabama, Jones needs two things to go right for him: He needs a lopsided turnout in his favor, and he needs pretty much all of the swing voters in Alabama (and there aren’t all that many of them) to vote for him. Neither of these are all that implausible. But if either one goes wrong for Jones, Moore will probably win narrowly (and if both go wrong, Moore could still win in a landslide). The stakes couldn’t be much higher for the candidates — or for the pollsters who surveyed the race. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-t...-alabama-polls/ Edited December 12, 2017 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 "How can we be antisemitic? we've got a Jew lawyer!" is an interesting if unsurprising defense from Moore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/12/politics/ala...rump/index.html How a Democrat could win in Alabama, in charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitesoxfan99 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 01:37 PM) I get the feeling this will be a lot like the last Presidential election where a lot of people who won't admit to voting for Moore will do exactly that and Moore will outperform the polls. I'm not sure how much that really happened in the last election considering the national polls were accurate and it was a few states that were off by normal polling error. Alabama has a chance to show today that they aren't who we all think they are (I think they fail). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 QUOTE (whitesoxfan99 @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 10:56 AM) I'm not sure how much that really happened in the last election considering the national polls were accurate and it was a few states that were off by normal polling error. Alabama has a chance to show today that they aren't who we all think they are (I think they fail). And, just like Alabama, a few of those states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan) had recently enacted the voter ID requirements and limited early voting, to make it harder for those undesirable people to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 A. Moore wins. or B. Jones wins and Trump goes on Twitter saying dead people voted and the Democrats cheated and should be investigated more than the witch hunt Russia stuff and go back to Hillary's emails while they are at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 QUOTE (Tony @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 11:36 PM) That article was written about a week after the election, the same election that made Nate Silver look.....not great. His numbers were the most accurate of any pollster. He was right... He gave Trump a 30% chance and Trump hit it. That's how statistics work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 QUOTE (Reddy @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 11:04 AM) His numbers were the most accurate of any pollster. He was right... He gave Trump a 30% chance and Trump hit it. That's how statistics work. No one understands that, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Kristen Clarke Verified account @KristenClarkeJD ALERT: We are receiving reports out of Jefferson County, #Alabama regarding text messages falsely telling voters their polling site has changed. Pls make reports to our 866-OUR-VOTE Election Protection hotline. Call us to confirm your polling location and vote! Kristen Clarke Verified account @KristenClarkeJD ALERT: We are receiving reports regarding a hostile precinct chief in Ramer, #Alabama (Montgomery Cty.). If you face voter intimidation, please contact our 866-OUR-VOTE Election Protection hotline. #AlabamaSenateRace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pettie4sox Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 01:11 PM) Kristen Clarke Verified account @KristenClarkeJD ALERT: We are receiving reports out of Jefferson County, #Alabama regarding text messages falsely telling voters their polling site has changed. Pls make reports to our 866-OUR-VOTE Election Protection hotline. Call us to confirm your polling location and vote! Kristen Clarke Verified account @KristenClarkeJD ALERT: We are receiving reports regarding a hostile precinct chief in Ramer, #Alabama (Montgomery Cty.). If you face voter intimidation, please contact our 866-OUR-VOTE Election Protection hotline. #AlabamaSenateRace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 QUOTE (Tony @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 12:30 PM) Don’t try and lecture me on statistics when Silver himself wrote this: Is that from this article where he defends his polling as most accurate of the major/reputable pollsters? https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate...-trump-forecast ^ That's from days before the election. Revisionist history is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 02:11 PM) Kristen Clarke Verified account @KristenClarkeJD ALERT: We are receiving reports out of Jefferson County, #Alabama regarding text messages falsely telling voters their polling site has changed. Pls make reports to our 866-OUR-VOTE Election Protection hotline. Call us to confirm your polling location and vote! Kristen Clarke Verified account @KristenClarkeJD ALERT: We are receiving reports regarding a hostile precinct chief in Ramer, #Alabama (Montgomery Cty.). If you face voter intimidation, please contact our 866-OUR-VOTE Election Protection hotline. #AlabamaSenateRace For reference, this stuff happens every election. It should be prosecuted, it never is (unless the black panthers did it), it's a form of voter fraud but not the "kind of voter fraud we need to care a huge amount about because caring about that happens to also disenfranchise a whole lot of blah peoples and they should count for something like 60% of a person at most", it's unlikely to be evidence of a systematic campaign of anything, if it happens to you it should absolutely be reported because that's the only way to prove a systematic campaign if that ever happened, and unless there's a lot of alabama voters here who might be directly affected I don't think this is worth caring much about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 QUOTE (Tony @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 02:54 PM) No actually, it’s not from that article. That article is written days after the election, praising himself for not getting as wrong as everyone else. Congrats Nate Silver. Talk about revisionist history. Putting Hillary's odds at 60% wasn't getting it wrong. The less-probable event occurring isn't an indication of failure. Not rolling a six is much more likely than rolling a six, but it's not impossible to roll a six. It's a probability, not prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Yeah, Nate's schtick can be annoying, but it was 538 that said the race was tied in late september. It was 538 that put out critical pieces of Upshots 90% probability for CLinton. He pointed out quite a bit that the reason that despite the national polls being similar, he gave such a lower probability to clinton that 2012 obama was obama's state polls were better for 270. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoSox05 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 (edited) @TheLeadCNN Does Roy Moore think that homosexual conduct should be illegal? Roy Moore campaign spokesman: “Probably.” Edited December 12, 2017 by GoSox05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pettie4sox Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Have to really fear for any homosexuals living in deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 And because we're living in a poorly written political thriller... http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/i...court_rule.html Alabama's Secretary of State, who believes you have to earn the right to vote, got an injunction filed so that he can destroy voting records from tonight. He also went to Russia last year to observe their elections and had glowing reviews. Somehow, that is not an Onion article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 https://twitter.com/theleadcnn/status/940704581742419969 Alabama education ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 05:22 PM) https://twitter.com/theleadcnn/status/940704581742419969 Alabama education ftw Time to follow European soccer and make Puerto Rico a state, make Alabama a territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 *whispers to self* please don't look at exits please don't look at exits *clicks link to exit poll* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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