Wacky idea: Trade Rodon, keep Quintana

[Buehrlesque]

Though it's taking time to come to fruition, it is still very likely that a Quintana trade will happen in the next few weeks. But here's a hypothetical "what if" scenario. IF the elite trade packages for Quintana never materialize, with the Pirates, Astros, Yankees, etc. never really offering the top prospects the Sox want, what would you think about trading Carlos Rodon for the good-but-not-great prospect packages like the ones we hear rumored on the table now and keeping Quintana to be ace going forward?

 

At first blush, the drawbacks are apparent: Rodon is younger, has an extra year of team control and would fetch less in a trade. But, to play devil's advocate for a moment, Quintana is a bona fide top of the rotation starter who is very consistent and durable. At age 27, he projects to be great for quite a while still. Rodon has not hit his ceiling yet, and looks good so far, but he is likely to be less consistent and a higher injury risk than Quintana. If teams are willing to put together a package for Rodon than is nearly as good as the ones we are seeing rumored for Q (hypothetical), could the Sox be better off down this road?

 

Would it make sense to take "full value" on a Rodon trade as opposed to "75 cents on the dollar" for a theoretical Quintana trade? Is five years of very good and possibly elite that much better than four years of almost-certainly elite? I think the case could be made that Quintana will be easier to extend/re-sign when the time comes than Boras-represented Rodon will be. Would that factor in for you at all?

 

Again, this is all moot if Hahn eventually pries one of the elite packages for Quintana (which I hope happens, and soon). But if not, is this a discussion worth having?

 

 

[steveno89]

Though it's taking time to come to fruition, it is still very likely that a Quintana trade will happen in the next few weeks. But here's a hypothetical "what if" scenario. IF the elite trade packages for Quintana never materialize, with the Pirates, Astros, Yankees, etc. never really offering the top prospects the Sox want, what would you think about trading Carlos Rodon for the good-but-not-great prospect packages like the ones we hear rumored on the table now and keeping Quintana to be ace going forward?

 

At first blush, the drawbacks are apparent: Rodon is younger, has an extra year of team control and would fetch less in a trade. But, to play devil's advocate for a moment, Quintana is a bona fide top of the rotation starter who is very consistent and durable. At age 27, he projects to be great for quite a while still. Rodon has not hit his ceiling yet, and looks good so far, but he is likely to be less consistent and a higher injury risk than Quintana. If teams are willing to put together a package for Rodon than is nearly as good as the ones we are seeing rumored for Q (hypothetical), could the Sox be better off down this road?

 

Would it make sense to take "full value" on a Rodon trade as opposed to "75 cents on the dollar" for a theoretical Quintana trade? Is five years of very good and possibly elite that much better than four years of almost-certainly elite? I think the case could be made that Quintana will be easier to extend/re-sign when the time comes than Boras-represented Rodon will be. Would that factor in for you at all?

 

Again, this is all moot if Hahn eventually pries one of the elite packages for Quintana (which I hope happens, and soon). But if not, is this a discussion worth having?

 

Rodon is set to really breakout in 2017, why deal him when he very much can be part of our future? His SIERA was 25th in the MLB in 2016 I believe.

 

The return would have to be massive for it to even be considered.

 

[BlackSox13]

I have no problem with this idea and I speculated last week that the Yanks could desire Rodon and not Q. The smart bet is to hold onto Rodon for another year or two before attempting to trade him but if a team wants to seriously pay for Rodon then I'm in.

 

Question for the board members. Let say the Sox want Torres/Rutherford/Andujar for Q. The Yanks counter offer is they would only trade that package of prospects for Rodon. Would you do it?

[CanOfCorn]

Leave the gun, take the cannoli.

[southsider2k5]

Would Rodon really be worth that much more?

[TheFutureIsNear]

How can we get fair value if you're admitting Rodon hasn't reached his full potential yet? Unless the Sox have some insight we don't know about any trade of Rodon would selling short on his true potential down the line. I highly doubt the offers for Rodon would come close to the offers for Q either, they aren't exactly interchangeable at the moment. A team isn't going to give what they feel is their best offer for Q, and then say "well how about for Rodon then" after we reject. Highly doubt it would work like that.

[GGajewski18]

How in the world does Rodon have any where close to the value that Quintana has?

 

The Yankees would never do that BlackSox. Just no.

[steveno89]

How in the world does Rodon have any where close to the value that Quintana has?

 

The Yankees would never do that BlackSox. Just no.

 

Rodon has more potential, but Quintana is a better pitcher now and a better bet the next four seasons.

 

Rodon is controlled for five seasons and is a guy the sox should build around

[GGajewski18]

What's crazy is in only 51 starts over the last two years Rodon has amassed the 17th most WAR in the AL for all starting pitchers. Plenty of people ahead of him have made over 60 starts in that time. Even when the guy is disappointing, or better yet, leaving more to be desired, he's a very effective pitcher. He's a #2-#3 right now.

 

That stat is crazy. Never would of guessed that to be honest.

[bmags]

Just to be fair to the OP, his original point was using Rodon to take the "lesser" packages offered for Q.

 

I think that's a fair question not to get lost in the "better offer than Q" posts.

 

But also I still don't think Rodon is at a good sell point. Fully expect him gone .5 season before FA though.

[BlackSox13]

How in the world does Rodon have any where close to the value that Quintana has?

 

The Yankees would never do that BlackSox. Just no.

Well, in Rodon's short 1.5 years in the majors he's made huge improvements, has five more years of control and the upside of a front line starter. It's not crazy to think a team might value Rodon as much as Q. Depends on the team and what they are after. Take the Yanks for example, Rodon would fit right in with the young core of Severino, Bird, Judge and so on. With the Yanks going young, Rodon would be a better fit for them than Q.

 

 

[steveno89]

Just to be fair to the OP, his original point was using Rodon to take the "lesser" packages offered for Q.

 

I think that's a fair question not to get lost in the "better offer than Q" posts.

 

But also I still don't think Rodon is at a good sell point. Fully expect him gone .5 season before FA though.

 

Right now the sox will keep him, ride out five of his prime seasons and see where that takes them

[ChiSox59]

Rodon is going to be a star. They control him for 5 years. He keeps his head down and does his job. Zero percent chance he is traded this offseason.

[harfman77]

I think Rodon gets moved as part of this rebuild, but its not the right time yet. The earliest I could see him being dealt is at the trade deadline but most likely it is next winter when a team is looking for a high level cost controlled arm to get (or stay) under the luxury tax.

[bighurt574]

How in the world does Rodon have any where close to the value that Quintana has?

 

He almost certainly wouldn't. If you're another team, you're basically just trading one risky asset (prospects) for another (young MLBer still figuring it out). Not sure that really makes sense. Unless another team is convinced Rodon is on the verge of being an ace and ponies up, Sox should hold him and build his value -- either to keep or trade down the road.

[ChiSox59]

He almost certainly wouldn't. If you're another team, you're basically just trading one risky asset (prospects) for another (young MLBer still figuring it out). Not sure that really makes sense. Unless another team is convinced Rodon is on the verge of being an ace and ponies up, Sox should hold him and build his value -- either to keep or trade down the road.

 

Rodon may not have "figured it out" in the sense that he isn't quite a dominant ace and still has quite a bit of untapped potential. But you don't have to look very hard to find stats that paint him as a top 25 pitcher in the game already. The dude is really good.

[Con te Giolito]

You dont trade Rodon until you are 100% certain he wont be signing an extension. So the Sox have to wait at least one year, probably two, before seriously entertaining the idea. He just turned 24 and he's as poised to break out as any pitcher in baseball and with the army of talented righties in the system Rodon can serve as the lefty anchor to the Sox rotation for a long, long time.

 

But if the rebuild is coming along slowly or Boras just wont budge on the extension front he'll probably have to go at some point. Hope it doesn't come to that.

[Con te Giolito]

Also Rodon's value is really tough to pin down. The potential is there for top 5 pitcher in baseball, and the trajectory he's on right now would probably lead him to the top 20. His worst case (non injury) scenario is what he is now, which is a strong 4th starter.

 

Some say Chris Archer is worth more than Chris Sale, this is not an argument I'm buying and I dont think there are many (maybe any outside Tampa) teams who buy it either. But whatever, there's an argument to be made that Archer's control makes him more valuable than Sale. Well Rodon was basically tied with Archer in ERA and trailed him very narrowly in FIP and xFIP. Rodon also walked fewer batters than Archer, but struck out fewer guys as well. Archer threw 35 more innings, which matters. In 2016 Archer was better than Rodon, but really not by much.

 

But you factor in Rodon's age (he's 4 years younger than Archer) and control (both have 5 years) and its not hard to convince yourself that Rodon is the guy you'd rather have. Its not outside the realm of possibility that Rodon could fetch a Sale-like package, even if I personally dont think he would.

[tray]

Like any other trade possibility, it depends what the compensation is.

The Sox have a decent infield right now. Potentially, Frazier, Anderson, Moncada. Abreu.

If the Pirates offer Austin Meadows for Q and someone makes a mistake by offering too much for Rodon, (like Trea Turner)

you trade both of them.

[Dam8610]

You will never get back the value right now for what he's likely to be over the next 5 years. No team will pay that price. So don't do it.

[HeGone7]

Not a fan. He's improving on the fly at the MLB level. He's developed and increased the usage of his secondary pitches. The guy is a kid learning to pitch, not just overpower. His results may be inconsistent but all signs point to this guys being one of the best in baseball. Hard to not see him as a #2-#3 already. We wouldn't be selling low, because I think his value will still be paid on an open market, but we'd certainly be caving prematurely.

 

I think he's just as, or more, untouchable than the guys we constantly see put in that category. He's the most logical guy to keep in my opinion.

[bighurt574]

He's a year away from commanding a big package, assuming he takes that next step this year.

 

I'm fine taking that risk and building his value more. A year from now, we can reevaluate how he fits in our rebuild timeline based on how quickly our prospects are developing.

[Soha]

He's a year away from commanding a big package, assuming he takes that next step this year.

 

I'm fine taking that risk and building his value more. A year from now, we can reevaluate how he fits in our rebuild timeline based on how quickly our prospects are developing.

 

First time poster, lifelong Sox fan.

 

I agree with the quoted post. Rodon's value probably isn't what it will be a year or two from now. That said, being a Boras client - he isn't likely to ever sign a team friendly deal like Quintana, Sale and Eaton all did....and this team friendly deals were a big part of the massive value those 3 players have/had.

 

And I have concerns of the Sox willingness to pay him what he is worth around the time this rebuild might be in the latter stages. What I'm trying to say is - yes I'd move him if the price is right, but that time isn't likely to be now.