Sox want to finish Q deal by ST

[Y2Jimmy0]

Interesting thoughts from Buster Olney on ESPN today. It's Insider so need a subscription but here's the Quintana portion: http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15688

 

 

The Chicago White Sox could wait until after the start of spring training or even into next season to trade Jose Quintana, the best available starting pitcher. But evaluators with knowledge of the Quintana discussions say the White Sox seem intent on finishing a deal before camps open. The Pittsburgh Pirates could be the frontrunners for the left-hander, whose modest salary through the 2020 season make him perfect for Pittsburgh's budget.

[Chicago White Sox]

Interesting thoughts from Buster Olney on ESPN today. It's Insider so need a subscription but here's the Quintana portion: http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15688

 

 

The Chicago White Sox could wait until after the start of spring training or even into next season to trade Jose Quintana, the best available starting pitcher. But evaluators with knowledge of the Quintana discussions say the White Sox seem intent on finishing a deal before camps open. The Pittsburgh Pirates could be the frontrunners for the left-hander, whose modest salary through the 2020 season make him perfect for Pittsburgh's budget.

Makes a ton of sense IMO. It's hard to imagine a better market for starting pitching and holding onto him four another 4+ months is risky. Seems like the Sox will wait this thing out until closer to February before reducing their ask. I'm fine with that because there really isn't another quality option like Q and a team might get desperate and do something stupid. If not, we should still be able to get a quality return right before camp opens.

[Southwest Sider]

Interesting thoughts from Buster Olney on ESPN today. It's Insider so need a subscription but here's the Quintana portion: http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15688

 

 

The Chicago White Sox could wait until after the start of spring training or even into next season to trade Jose Quintana, the best available starting pitcher. But evaluators with knowledge of the Quintana discussions say the White Sox seem intent on finishing a deal before camps open. The Pittsburgh Pirates could be the frontrunners for the left-hander, whose modest salary through the 2020 season make him perfect for Pittsburgh's budget.

 

 

Makes sense that the Sox are intent on finishing a deal due to how much harder it might be to trade Quintana going forward. I highly doubt that if the Sox would get more from another team at the deadline or next offseason. The time to trade Quintana is now. This definitely hurts the Sox position in negotiations as teams can just decide to wait the Sox out until they accept their offers.

[Balta1701]

Makes sense that the Sox are intent on finishing a deal due to how much harder it might be to trade Quintana going forward. I highly doubt that if the Sox would get more from another team at the deadline or next offseason. The time to trade Quintana is now. This definitely hurts the Sox position in negotiations as teams can just decide to wait the Sox out until they accept their offers.

Which is probably why the start of ST was specifically mentioned - because its an imposed deadline that doesn't come from the White Sox. If the Pirates can't trade McCutchen before then, they have to decide, are they ok with their current rotation that had 0 guys throw 125+ innings last year or not?

[harfman77]

Makes a ton of sense IMO. It's hard to imagine a better market for starting pitching and holding onto him four another 4+ months is risky. Seems like the Sox will wait this thing out until closer to February before reducing their ask. I'm fine with that because there really isn't another quality option like Q and a team might get desperate and do something stupid. If not, we should still be able to get a quality return right before camp opens.

 

We are about six weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, the more important deadline though is probably March 10 when Venezuela plays their first WBC game.

[southsider2k5]

Interesting thoughts from Buster Olney on ESPN today. It's Insider so need a subscription but here's the Quintana portion: http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15688

 

 

The Chicago White Sox could wait until after the start of spring training or even into next season to trade Jose Quintana, the best available starting pitcher. But evaluators with knowledge of the Quintana discussions say the White Sox seem intent on finishing a deal before camps open. The Pittsburgh Pirates could be the frontrunners for the left-hander, whose modest salary through the 2020 season make him perfect for Pittsburgh's budget.

 

Interesting to see that in print. I was guessing that was the truth, but again when you get so far down the road, it is almost more difficult to bring him back.

[Bob Sacamano]

Interesting thoughts from Buster Olney on ESPN today. It's Insider so need a subscription but here's the Quintana portion: http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15688

 

 

The Chicago White Sox could wait until after the start of spring training or even into next season to trade Jose Quintana, the best available starting pitcher. But evaluators with knowledge of the Quintana discussions say the White Sox seem intent on finishing a deal before camps open. The Pittsburgh Pirates could be the frontrunners for the left-hander, whose modest salary through the 2020 season make him perfect for Pittsburgh's budget.

 

If this is true, we all may be slightly disappointed with the haul. If they're intent on finishing a deal before camp opens, they will end up settling for best offer.

Edited January 4, 2017 by soxfan2014

[harfman77]

If this is true, we all may be slightly disappointed with the haul. If they're intent on finishing a deal before camp opens, they will end up settling for best offer.

 

That may be their intention now, but that could change based on the offers they receive. I have seen nothing from Hahn that makes me think he will settle for an inferior package to move an extremely valuable asset.

[Y2Jimmy0]

If this is true, we all may be slightly disappointed with the haul. If they're intent on finishing a deal before camp opens, they will end up settling for best offer.

 

 

The best offer might be something that we've been expecting though. I guarantee you the Sox are asking for the sun and the moon but ultimately are fine with accepting just the moon in return. For example, Sox could be asking for Meadows, Glasnow, Newman, and something else. Meadows could be the sticking point. Sox may be fine with taking something like Glasnow, Bell, Newman all along though. Hope that makes sense.

[Bob Sacamano]

The best offer might be something that we've been expecting though. I guarantee you the Sox are asking for the sun and the moon but ultimately are fine with accepting just the moon in return. For example, Sox could be asking for Meadows, Glasnow, Newman, and something else. Meadows could be the sticking point. Sox may be fine with taking something like Glasnow, Bell, Newman all along though. Hope that makes sense.

 

I'm just saying it may be disappointing to some because there were a good amount of people on here that felt the Sale trade was a player off (myself included).

[illinilaw08]

Interesting to see that in print. I was guessing that was the truth, but again when you get so far down the road, it is almost more difficult to bring him back.

 

Makes sense given the rebuild as well. The earlier you make the trade, the quicker the headliners are up. Basically, each trade this year has brought back headliners who probably will not be on the Sox Opening Day roster in '17. If you assume that will be the norm at the trade deadline, and next offseason, then you really need to move Q before Spring Training because you are effectively losing time on the rebuild by waiting.

[southsider2k5]

Makes sense given the rebuild as well. The earlier you make the trade, the quicker the headliners are up. Basically, each trade this year has brought back headliners who probably will not be on the Sox Opening Day roster in '17. If you assume that will be the norm at the trade deadline, and next offseason, then you really need to move Q before Spring Training because you are effectively losing time on the rebuild by waiting.

 

Not to mention that public opinion isn't going to stay with this very long.

[illinilaw08]

Not to mention that public opinion isn't going to stay with this very long.

 

That's probably true as well.

 

For the record, I think the ticking clock works both ways. If the Pirates think they have a window to contend today, they need Q from Opening Day this year. Any missed starts put them further behind the Cubs and the Cardinals in that division.

[Balta1701]

That's probably true as well.

 

For the record, I think the ticking clock works both ways. If the Pirates think they have a window to contend today, they need Q from Opening Day this year. Any missed starts put them further behind the Cubs and the Cardinals in that division.

I don't think the issue for them is just competition this season, it's that they have 4 outfielders. It's ok to have 4 outfielders in January. They might even be ok with it in May since Meadows didn't tear up AAA last year. But by July, they're going to have more outfielders than they have positions in the outfield, and they're going to be paying McCutchen a pretty solid amount (for them at least) for the privilege. If they're going to pay Cutch this season and not move him, then they have to contend today because they have him for 2 years. If they're going to move Cutch, they don't want to pay him for 3 months this season first.

[Buehrlesque]

Makes a ton of sense IMO. It's hard to imagine a better market for starting pitching and holding onto him four another 4+ months is risky. Seems like the Sox will wait this thing out until closer to February before reducing their ask. I'm fine with that because there really isn't another quality option like Q and a team might get desperate and do something stupid. If not, we should still be able to get a quality return right before camp opens.

I keep seeing this but don't agree with it. Why is it risky just for the Sox? Other teams' players' stocks will rise and fall as well. Just as an example, Tyler Glasnow is more likely to get injured or underperform than Quintana. Do you think the Sox could have nabbed Giolito (plus more) for Eaton at this point last year? TINSTAAPP I hope it gets done soon for convenience sake, but I don't there is added risk in waiting if offers aren't up to par anyway. Plus, teams in midseason pennant races can clearly seeing glaring needs manifest themselves right in front of them, and don't have the luxury of playing the long game of hardball with the trade deadline looming and playoffs tantalizingly close.

Edited January 4, 2017 by Buehrlesque

[illinilaw08]

I keep seeing this but don't agree with it. Why is it risky just for the Sox? Other teams' players' stocks will rise and fall as well. Just as an example, Tyler Glasnow is more likely to get injured or underperform than Quintana. Do you think the Sox could have nabbed Giolito (plus more) for Eaton at this point last year? TINSTAAPP I hope it gets done soon for convenience sake, but I don't there is added risk in waiting if offers aren't up to par anyway. Plus, teams in midseason pennant races can clearly seeing glaring needs manifest themselves right in front of them, and don't have the luxury of playing the long game of hardball with the trade deadline looming and playoffs tantalizingly close.

 

Q has pitched at his ceiling over the last 3 years. Consistently very, very good is the best case scenario for Q. The pitching market is legitimately awful today. Q's not going to get more valuable than he is today. Compare that to Eaton, whose defense in RF last year pushed his value to the point that the Sox ultimately raided the Nats' system in a trade.

 

The Sox may not get the headliner that they want for Q, but unless they plan to hold on to Q for the duration of his contract, his value will likely never be higher than it is today.

 

 

[harfman77]

I keep seeing this but don't agree with it. Why is it risky just for the Sox? Other teams' players' stocks will rise and fall as well. Just as an example, Tyler Glasnow is more likely to get injured or underperform than Quintana. Do you think the Sox could have nabbed Giolito (plus more) for Eaton at this point last year? TINSTAAPP I hope it gets done soon for convenience sake, but I don't there is added risk in waiting if offers aren't up to par anyway. Plus, teams in midseason pennant races can clearly seeing glaring needs manifest themselves right in front of them, and don't have the luxury of playing the long game of hardball with the trade deadline looming and playoffs tantalizingly close.

 

The Hamels deal from a year and a half ago is a blueprint for what you can do at the deadline where the Phillies hauled in six players for Hamels and Diekman. Three of those players were top 50 prospects, one was an established ML pitcher, and two were ML ready arms. With Q's contract he should be able to pull in a similar haul, and teams are known to panic and overpay in July for a chance at a ring - see what the Yankees did this summer as an example.

[harfman77]

Q has pitched at his ceiling over the last 3 years. Consistently very, very good is the best case scenario for Q. The pitching market is legitimately awful today. Q's not going to get more valuable than he is today. Compare that to Eaton, whose defense in RF last year pushed his value to the point that the Sox ultimately raided the Nats' system in a trade.

 

The Sox may not get the headliner that they want for Q, but unless they plan to hold on to Q for the duration of his contract, his value will likely never be higher than it is today.

 

The thing is, with the new luxury tax system, Q is still going to be just as valuable next offseason barring injury. You have four teams currently over the limit and all are going to need pitching and at some point in the next couple years when the luxury tax raises significantly - http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/...iggest-payrolls

 

The Dodgers, Yankees, and Cubs especially are going to need cost controlled arms to replace what they are losing from their rotations.

[Buehrlesque]

Q has pitched at his ceiling over the last 3 years. Consistently very, very good is the best case scenario for Q. The pitching market is legitimately awful today. Q's not going to get more valuable than he is today. Compare that to Eaton, whose defense in RF last year pushed his value to the point that the Sox ultimately raided the Nats' system in a trade.

 

The Sox may not get the headliner that they want for Q, but unless they plan to hold on to Q for the duration of his contract, his value will likely never be higher than it is today.

Q's value will likely never be higher, but it is not likely to fade much either. Four full years on an under market contract is such crazy value that the market can't even really meet it. Plus, the other part is that other players' value is no sure thing to hold steady anyway, and pitchers like Glasnow could easily tumble. Any trade is a snapshot in time value wise. The big picture is my whole argument is predicated on the fact that the slam dunk elite offer is not being made anyway. If that kind of offer comes in, then you take it. If not, evaluate all scenarios.

[Con te Giolito]

The thing is, with the new luxury tax system, Q is still going to be just as valuable next offseason barring injury. You have four teams currently over the limit and all are going to need pitching and at some point in the next couple years when the luxury tax raises significantly - http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/...iggest-payrolls

 

The Dodgers, Yankees, and Cubs especially are going to need cost controlled arms to replace what they are losing from their rotations.

None of those teams care about money. Even with the luxury tax.

[Balta1701]

None of those teams care about money. Even with the luxury tax.

With the multi year penalties there has been a lot of talk about both the Yankees and Dodgers trying to get under the tax line in 2018 so that they can binge easier on the big 2018 offseason. Whether that will happen or not I'm still skeptical, but the Yankees at least have put themselves in position where they could do it.

[southsider2k5]

With the multi year penalties there has been a lot of talk about both the Yankees and Dodgers trying to get under the tax line in 2018 so that they can binge easier on the big 2018 offseason. Whether that will happen or not I'm still skeptical, but the Yankees at least have put themselves in position where they could do it.

 

There has also been talk, later denied, that LA is also working against MLB debt limits.

[Dick Allen]

There has also been talk, later denied, that LA is also working against MLB debt limits.

There are ways around that. They could sell a non controlling small portion of the team like Ricketts, and problem solved. But I do think anyone with any desire to sign a Machado or Harper or Kershaw wants to be re-set on the luxury tax.

[FT35]

I keep seeing this but don't agree with it. Why is it risky just for the Sox? Other teams' players' stocks will rise and fall as well. Just as an example, Tyler Glasnow is more likely to get injured or underperform than Quintana. Do you think the Sox could have nabbed Giolito (plus more) for Eaton at this point last year? TINSTAAPP I hope it gets done soon for convenience sake, but I don't there is added risk in waiting if offers aren't up to par anyway. Plus, teams in midseason pennant races can clearly seeing glaring needs manifest themselves right in front of them, and don't have the luxury of playing the long game of hardball with the trade deadline looming and playoffs tantalizingly close.

 

I see your point though...everyone is involved with the risk factor. I think the most important factor was eluded--Q is at his ceiling. Everyone knows he is great--there's some debate whether he's a #1 for a playoff bound team, but they know the ceiling is where he is (plus a few more wins), and the floor is not very low. But the true risk comes in when you factor in the April factor. When you're dealing with up and coming players who have been highly touted, they have a long leash on failure but a short window to be acquired. Look at G. Sanchez for the Yanks...he started hot and went from "we'd rather not trade him, to "ABSOLUTELY NOT...NEVER!!!" because of that hot start. Any of those top 10 prospects are valued more by the team who has them--so it doesn't take much for a little success to be blown out of proportion--FAST. 2 good starts could close the door for a while on a player like Glasnow if he comes out of the gate with 2 gems. Bell could start 8 for 16 with 4 extra-base hits. The other April factor that the Sox deal with is the cold. While that tends to aid the pitchers numbers...it also can easily lead to the common muscle pull, strain--minor injury trip to the DL "for precautionary reasons" and all of a sudden your Quintana for Glasnow, Bell, Newman is a pipe dream. It took the Rangers a full year and a half before they considered Joey Gallo movable again because he blew up in the first week of his callup.

 

The flip side may not be exactly the same because Q could start with 2 gems and the Pirates package could start cold and the deal is still hinging on whether the Pirates want to let go of that much potential to acquire Q--they know Q is great but his 2 gems did little to confirm that as they were almost expected.

[Con te Giolito]

With the multi year penalties there has been a lot of talk about both the Yankees and Dodgers trying to get under the tax line in 2018 so that they can binge easier on the big 2018 offseason. Whether that will happen or not I'm still skeptical, but the Yankees at least have put themselves in position where they could do it.

Well the Dodgers went and spent $200m this offseason on the likes of Justin Turner and Rich Hill, crushing whatever theory there was of them caring even a little about the tax. I was one of those who thought the Sox could get some of LA's prospects by taking on salary...well that idea is completely shot.

 

The Yankees make a little more sense as they will almost have to sign at least one expensive starter next offseason (Tanaka will opt out) and have ambitions of signing Harper and possibly Machado in 2 years. But even they aren't going to give up guys they really believe in from the farm just for payroll flexibility. The appeal of Quintana for the Yanks is it helps them be sneaky contenders in 2017 and gives them a solid lefty innings eater right through the heart of their championship window.