How our current top 100 prospects match up with past years

[FT35]

Right now, we currently have 6 top 100 players on the Baseball America top 100 prospects list. *Using the main chart (not the one that released a few updates today).

 

2016

1. Yoan Moncada

3. Lucas Giolito

30. Michael Kopech

38. Reynaldo Lopez

58. Carson Fulmer

80. Zack Collins

 

Here's a look at what those players would look like over the last 5 years (using the same Baseball America ranks) to give us an idea of what types of return they might produce as far as a team nucleus in the next 5 years--assuming they all stick together.

 

2015

1. Byron Buxton

3. Lucas Gioloto

30. Ozhaino, Albies

38. Tim Anderson

58. Grant Holmes

80. Johnathan Harris

 

2014

1. Byron Buxton

3. Oscar Taveras

30. Andrew Heaney

38. Travis D'Arnaud

58. Kolten Wong

80. Hunter Renfroe

 

2013

1. Jurikson Profar

3. Oscar Taveras

30. Anthony Rendon

38. Carlos Martinez

58. Austin Hedges

80. Didi Gregorius

 

2012* Holy #&%@

1. Bryce Harper

3. Mike Trout

30. Drew Pomeranz

38. Gary Brown

58. Xander Bogaerts

80. Michael Choice

 

2011--wow

1. Bryce Harper

3. Jesus Montero

30. Gary Sanchez

38. Brett Jackson

58. Simon Castro (SD)

80. Nolan Arenado

 

 

[thxfrthmmrs]

Not sure where you got your rankings from, but those ranks will change quite a bit when the official list drops next month.

[ChiSox59]

Not sure where you got your rankings from, but those ranks will change quite a bit when the official list drops next month.

 

Current mlb.com rankings.

 

I expect Kopech to rise a bit. Lopez to stay about the same. Moncada will still be top 3. Giolito will drop into teens, most likely. My guess is Collins is closer to 50 than 80.

[Bob Sacamano]

Current mlb.com rankings.

I expect Kopech to rise a bit. Lopez to stay about the same. Moncada will still be top 3. Giolito will drop into teens, most likely. My guess is Collins is closer to 50 than 80.

 

I don't think they've updated that since mid-season.

[heirdog]

Most of the "wow" players of yore are position players and 4 out of 6 for Sox are pitchers, who notoriously have a higher bust rate. But hoping for the best. Something about Giolito screams Gavin Floyd to me but that would be serviceable I suppose.

[Princess Dye]

Current mlb.com rankings.

 

I expect Kopech to rise a bit. Lopez to stay about the same. Moncada will still be top 3. Giolito will drop into teens, most likely. My guess is Collins is closer to 50 than 80.

 

If it's not for sure Collins can catch, then there's no way he can be as high as #50

[ChiSox59]

I don't think they've updated that since mid-season.

 

I meant current in the sense that they are the "most" current.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Current mlb.com rankings.

I expect Kopech to rise a bit. Lopez to stay about the same. Moncada will still be top 3. Giolito will drop into teens, most likely. My guess is Collins is closer to 50 than 80.

 

So the OP did a benchmark of current MLB rankings against historic BA Top 100 rankings? It still doesn't make sense.

[ChiSox59]

So the OP did a benchmark of current MLB rankings against historic BA Top 100 rankings? It still doesn't make sense.

 

Exactly. I mean, it doesn't mean much, but its at least a little interesting to look at.

 

Hopefully more than half these guys hit, or this was a bad idea.

[southsider2k5]

Exactly. I mean, it doesn't mean much, but its at least a little interesting to look at.

 

Hopefully more than half these guys hit, or this was a bad idea.

 

If half these guys hit, we are pretty much back to where we started.

[Quin]

If half these guys hit, it will be strange as four are pitchers.

[FT35]

Most of the "wow" players of yore are position players and 4 out of 6 for Sox are pitchers, who notoriously have a higher bust rate. But hoping for the best. Something about Giolito screams Gavin Floyd to me but that would be serviceable I suppose.

 

Gavin Floyd was exactly the name that came to mind! Interesting you mentioned that! I just think the list is interesting to see the caliber of players that come from various spots on the top 100 list. Some are busts, others are super stars. Doesn't mean we will have either! Just a historical reference for comparison purposes only. There's pretty much a big time star in every group--along with at least 1 bust.

[FT35]

So the OP did a benchmark of current MLB rankings against historic BA Top 100 rankings? It still doesn't make sense.

 

Since we don't know how prospects will fare in the big leagues (or if they will ever make it up), this info shows what similarly ranked prospects have turned out to be as major league players. We don't know how Reynaldo Lopez will do over time...but we do know that Carlos Martinez was once ranked #38 on this list and he turned out to be a solid pitcher with the Cardinals. Not directly comparing Lopez to Carlos Martinez, but it's a idea of the type of player someone who is ranked #38 could turn into as a major leaguer. Obviously there are plenty of outliners, but looking at each sample list, there are at least a couple of really good names and a couple of duds. So if our 6 follows a similar pattern, we could have a similar result.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Since we don't know how prospects will fare in the big leagues (or if they will ever make it up), this info shows what similarly ranked prospects have turned out to be as major league players. We don't know how Reynaldo Lopez will do over time...but we do know that Carlos Martinez was once ranked #38 on this list and he turned out to be a solid pitcher with the Cardinals. Not directly comparing Lopez to Carlos Martinez, but it's a idea of the type of player someone who is ranked #38 could turn into as a major leaguer. Obviously there are plenty of outliners, but looking at each sample list, there are at least a couple of really good names and a couple of duds. So if our 6 follows a similar pattern, we could have a similar result.

 

I get what you're trying to do, but you confused yourself when you used MLB rankings and called it BA Top 100 rankings, then compared the rankings to historic BA rankings. You have to take into account that prospects rank very differently across publications, depending how their staff evaluates prospect tools and performances. Take Chris Carter example. He was ranked #11 by Baseball Prospectus in 2010 and #30 (despite having a poor showing in 2010) in 2011, while only ranked #28 and 90 in those two years by BA.

 

So if you want to use current MLB rankings, a fair comparison is historic MLB rankings, not Baseball America's.

[FT35]

I get what you're trying to do, but you confused yourself when you used MLB rankings and called it BA Top 100 rankings, then compared the rankings to historic BA rankings. You have to take into account that prospects rank very differently across publications, depending how their staff evaluates prospect tools and performances. Take Chris Carter example. He was ranked #11 by Baseball Prospectus in 2010 and #30 (despite having a poor showing in 2010) in 2011, while only ranked #28 and 90 in those two years by BA.

 

So if you want to use current MLB rankings, a fair comparison is historic MLB rankings, not Baseball America's.

 

I follow now...yes, I used the MLB for the most recent, then BA for the archives. Point being the same though...it's to show the type of return that it could yield (player comp wise) in a 5 year period...a couple of studs, a couple of duds. Although 2012 MAY be an outliner...one could only dream of Harper, Trout, Pomeranz and Bogaerts. Personally, I would think 2013 may be the norm...Profar--an over-hyped under achieving player who in reality is probably still a decent UTIL guy, Rendon, Martinez and Gregorius form a nice trio of talent--throw in what could have been with Oscar Taveras--God forbid. It's certainly a nice start on a core.

[reiks12]

That 2012 class..