Sox holding talks "daily" on Q

[BlackSox13]

Lol...sure, they are the same if you completely ignore their offensive abilities.

Seriously right? The only thing they both have in common on offense is power and that's it. Bell crushes Tank in every other offensive category.

 

It cracks me up when people say a 24 year old cannot learn the 1B position. If Abreu, Dunn and Thomas were capable of playing 1B I see no reason why Bell couldn't learn to in time.

[JRL]

I'll keep repeating it until he ends up getting traded but the trade deadline wont help. Your not getting major league or close to major league ready talent from those teams. If your fine with players highly rated down the farm system that's fine. But the market will change after the season starts.

 

If your trading Q trade him now or dont at all.

 

That a player would be able to play in the majors when the Sox trade for him at the deadline is not in and of itself of any value, since they will certainly not be contending in 2017,and that probably will be the case, barring some miracle at least through 2018 as well. It actually is to the Sox benefit to keep their better prospects (which I'm sure any acquired for Quintana would be) in the minors for awhile so extra time on their arbitration clocks isnt used up for no reason while they aren't close to contention. If by actual "major league ready talent", you mean someone who has already performed at the highest levels of the minors and even for a somewhat extended sting in the big leagues like Bregman (from the Astros), Dahl (Colorado), Trea Turner (Nats), Swanson (Braves), Benintendi (Red Sox), Urias (Dodgers) etc... that does have tremendous value, since the higher level at which a player/prospect has already performed, all the way up through the majors, the easier it is to project likely future major league success with more certainty and accuracy. However, that ship has already sailed. The Sox aren't getting a guy like that whether before the season or at the trade deadline. They didn't get Benintendi or Turner for Sale, nor did they get Turner in the Eaton deal, and they're not any more likely to get either for Quintana. And, from all reports, the Astros, Braves, and Dodgers have no intent on trading Bregman, Swanson, or Urias for Quintana or anyone else. And, if Rockies were to offer up a decent package built around Dahl right now, I'd be 100% with you not to wait until the deadline. But, that doesn't seem to be happening. Bottom line, just as many have said that if the Sox liked the offers they were getting for Quintana right now, a deal would be done, if a package around that type of player was/is available right now for Quintana, the Sox would have/will likely jump at it and accept.

 

If by "close to major league ready talent", you mean, assuming there is no value--and even probably detriment--to the Sox in having a guy up immediately because we're not close to contending, someone who still hasn't played in the bigs yet, but has ascended well enough through the minors that he'll likely be able to make his debut either toward end of 2017 or sometime in 2018, history says you are absolutely wrong. Many such "close to major league ready players" have been dealt just over the last 2 deadlines. Of course, not all of them are going to be the quality of prospect you want for Quintana, because Quintana is one of the most valuable trade chips in the league. So, there aren't many examples of guys with his value getting dealt at all, whether in the offseason or at the deadline, because there just aren't that many players at all, who exist in the league that valuable, who get dealt or don't get dealt. But there are some examples over the last 2 deadlines where a player in the range of Quintana's value was dealt, and when this happened they brought back "close to major league ready talent". And, many other lesser level major league players brought back the others brought "close to major league ready prospects" of a lower level, but of an appropriate level for the prospect they were dealt for.

 

Just over the last 2 deadlines you have: At 2015 Deadline, Cespedes dealt for Michael Fulmer (debuted in MLB April of the next season); Cole Hamels traded for Jerad Eickhoff (debuted same season he was traded) and Alec Asher (debuted same season as he was traded); Gerardo Parra traded for Zach Davies (debuted same season as he was traded; Carlos Gomez traded for Domingo Santana (had actually already played a bit in MLB season prior to being traded, but debuted for new team same season he was dealt); David Price traded for Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd (both same as Domingo Santana). Ben Zobrist for Sean Manaea (debuted in April of the next season); Johnny Cueto for Brandon Finnegan (same as Domingo Santana), John Lamb (same as Domingo Sanatana) and Cody Reed (debuted in June of the next season). I was going to do 2016 Deadline too, but I think this is enough to more than prove the point that this notion is just factually incorrect.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Just a thought but is it possible everyone is taking the Cashman "3 elite prospects" thing a little too literal? Every GM overrates their own players/prospects. For all we know Hahn asked for something pretty reasonable like Frazier, Kaprielian and Andjuar + an A baller and Cashman is overplaying his guys to the media. Kaprielian and Andjuar are both very good prospects, but I wouldn't lump either into the elite category. Then again the entire term "elite" is relative and subject to interpretation. I honestly don't believe Hahn would have demanded Torres and Frazier + a top pitching prospect and not budged though. On paper the Yankees are a great match and have a lot to offer, to be that stubborn doesn't seem practical or benificial. I just think what a lot of others have been saying, Cashman is building something and holding onto his prospects and a deal was never going to happen.

 

 

[striker]

This is why you ask for three elite prospects

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/3/9/...e-retrospective

[caulfield12]

Fyi, I'm not advocating they trade him now just that we might be looking at the best offers now. Hopefully July brings us some surprise contenders if they end up not trading him now. Granted all the teams can't put together a competitive enough offer to trade for him. Ideally, Yankees are playing well going into July.

 

 

Just a couple of things....pitchers like Archer, Gray, Verlander (especially if Tigers eat contract partially) might become more attractive as the season goes on. Greinke as well, depending on the financial terms/subsidies.

 

Will in general agree that Duffy/Kennedy (not a great contract, but not horrible either)/Ventura are unlikely to go anywhere unless the Royals are well below .500 and one or two of those guys is lighting it up. Ventura's at the point though, like Rodon this year, where it's close to he "is what he is" if he has yet another inconsistent/erratic season. Plus he's got the make-up/temperament baggage that other teams aren't going to want to deal with. Change of scenery candidate though, etc.

 

But just in our division, you've got most of the Tigers' staff (starting with Zimmerman/Verlander) and the entire Twins' veteran staff (Santana/Santiago/Hughes/Gibson). There's the POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF OPTIONS TO BE ON THE MARKET, COMPARED TO NOW. Even a veteran rental pitcher like a Jason Vargas or Ryan Vogelsong becomes a possibility for teams not willing to dump 3 top prospects onto the White Sox at mid-season. Not to put them over the top, but just to get them across the finish line to the post-season.

 

FINALLY, IF the White Sox don't field a quality defensive outfield, Q's peripherals are going to be affected to an extent, although obviously there are advanced defensive metrics to mitigate that somewhat. Obviously his W/L record is going to be pretty abysmal, but it's hard to argue that he could possibly UP his value unless he just kicks it into another gear and shows the ability to have a low to mid 2's ERA (which is pretty darned unlikely).

Edited January 13, 2017 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

Heard that the pirates could be targeting Vlad Jr. In a McCutchen-Jays swap. Not sure if he would really move the needle on a potential Q package though

 

That could help get my attention.

[Eminor3rd]

There isn't going to be be a better market for Quintana. You can't get better than being literally the only TOR pitcher available. The market may be scarce again someday, but Quintana will have less control then, and he can't realistically pitch better than he has been pitching. It's certainly possible for someone to pay more later, but it's not likely.

 

That doesn't mean take a BS offer, but there is definitely real motivation to get the deal done this offseason if at all possible.

[caulfield12]

That could help get my attention.

 

 

Does Guerrero even profile as having the athleticism to play a corner outfield spot?

 

His father was an excellent defender the first half of his career with one of the Top 3-5 throwing arms on most scouts' historical records. Isn't this Guerrero going to be a 1B?

 

Unless you can play a position well (defensively), his upside seems fairly limited despite the bloodlines.

 

Fwiw, I saw a cousin of his play for the M's (Clinton Lumber Kings) a couple of years ago and the whole family tends to have that long/rangy athletic frame, but none of the explosiveness of Vladimir as a youngster.

Edited January 13, 2017 by caulfield12

[JRL]

Just a couple of things....pitchers like Archer, Gray, Verlander (especially if Tigers eat contract partially) might become more attractive as the season goes on. Greinke as well, depending on the financial terms/subsidies.

 

Will in general agree that Duffy/Kennedy (not a great contract, but not horrible either)/Ventura are unlikely to go anywhere unless the Royals are well below .500 and one or two of those guys is lighting it up. Ventura's at the point though, like Rodon this year, where it's close to he "is what he is" if he has yet another inconsistent/erratic season. Plus he's got the make-up/temperament baggage that other teams aren't going to want to deal with. Change of scenery candidate though, etc.

 

But just in our division, you've got most of the Tigers' staff (starting with Zimmerman/Verlander) and the entire Twins' veteran staff (Santana/Santiago/Hughes/Gibson). There's the POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF OPTIONS TO BE ON THE MARKET, COMPARED TO NOW. Even a veteran rental pitcher like a Jason Vargas or Ryan Vogelsong becomes a possibility for teams not willing to dump 3 top prospects onto the White Sox at mid-season. Not to put them over the top, but just to get them across the finish line to the post-season.

 

FINALLY, IF the White Sox don't field a quality defensive outfield, Q's peripherals are going to be affected to an extent, although obviously there are advanced defensive metrics to mitigate that somewhat. Obviously his W/L record is going to be pretty abysmal, but it's hard to argue that he could possibly UP his value unless he just kicks it into another gear and shows the ability to have a low to mid 2's ERA (which is pretty darned unlikely).

 

Gray, as a pitcher who had been consistently good and is coming of a down season, is the one guy I agree with you can build up value as season goes on and become a more attractive trade candidate by July. I don't see how Archer and Verlander becomes any more valuable by July than they are currently. Archer, in spite of a down year in terms of his surface stats, seems to be currently valued as a stud with a great contract nonetheless. Not much room to increase that. Verlander is coming off a 2nd place (by a hair) CY finish year, so again, not much room to increase his value beyond what it currently is. Yes, we've been hearing conflicting things about whether the Tigers are rebuilding, and if they totally crap the bed, they could decide it's time to go forward, but given their roster, it's hard to see them not being in contention throughout the season. So, then what will have changed to cause them to trade Verlander. To whatever extent Quintana will/won't be competing against those guys on the trade market in July, it's probably the same as the extent to which he is/isn't competing against them on the trade market currently, so nothing really changes.

 

In terms of Greinke, there are a few problems with him being an attractive trade candidate. Primarily, the contract is so incredibly expensive that to make him nearly as attractive as Quintana, the Diamondbacks would have to eat such an incredible number that it's not really worth it. What's he owed? 172 million over the next 5 years? What would Diamondbacks need to eat to make him attractive? Say $72 million? And, even at the "reduced" price of $100 million over 5 years, he's still nowhere near as attractive as Quintana with his contract. Has any team ever paid anywhere close to that much for a player to not play for them? It's sunken cost. It makes more sense for the D-Backs to pay him $172 million to play for them than to pay him $72 million to play against them. It's different than the Tigers eating a chunk of Verlander's contract. Verlander is signed at $84 million over the next 3 years with a $22 million vesting option for a 4th. Forgetting the vesting option, let's say the Tigers eat a really nice sum of the first 3 year total, say $30 mil. 3 years for 54 million is a pretty decent contract for Verlander right now. Could probably get something similar on FA market. The team that trades for him also doesn't really care about $22 million vesting option for the 4th year, since if he gets it, he'll probably be worth it. Even going in to an age 37 season, a 1 year, $22 million deal is a fine price for a guy for a guy coming off a Top 5 CY finish, especially when you consider what $22 million will buy teams by 2020 at the ridiculous rate at which the MLB FA market inflates.

 

Other issues with Greinke becoming a trade candidate are a) I'm not so sure the D-Backs are as far away from contending as many probably think, especially if Greinke has at least a solid year to bounce back and regain the trade value he'd need to be attractive for him to be a trade candidate if the D-Backs are not good. It seems that the Dbacks believe this too. In theory, based on record alone, they should be selling like the Sox, shedding valuable pieces like Goldschmidt and Pollock who are cheap and only have 2 years until they become FAs. Yet, we haven't really heard a peep of that this offseason. I think there is a lot of talent and nice pieces on that team, and a lot of things went wrong for them last year that could go right this year and they could be a surprise contender; b) Greinke has had 2 transcendent ridiculous seasons in his 13 year career, 2009 and 2015. Otherwise, especially based on a lot of the league-adjusted and advanced stas, Greinke has been a firmly above average starting pitcher, but nowhere near the dominant "ace" we all seem to think of him as.

[Con te Giolito]

There isn't going to be be a better market for Quintana. You can't get better than being literally the only TOR pitcher available. The market may be scarce again someday, but Quintana will have less control then, and he can't realistically pitch better than he has been pitching. It's certainly possible for someone to pay more later, but it's not likely.

 

That doesn't mean take a BS offer, but there is definitely real motivation to get the deal done this offseason if at all possible.

At this point the Sox should be pitting teams offers against each other, not against the idea of the Sox holding onto Quintana.

[JRL]

There isn't going to be be a better market for Quintana. You can't get better than being literally the only TOR pitcher available. The market may be scarce again someday, but Quintana will have less control then, and he can't realistically pitch better than he has been pitching. It's certainly possible for someone to pay more later, but it's not likely.

 

That doesn't mean take a BS offer, but there is definitely real motivation to get the deal done this offseason if at all possible.

 

Speaking in broad generalizations like this is useless. It's certainly possible the market won't get any better for Quintana. There are ample reasons why that could occur. It's equally possible that it does get better. Based on the info we have, we don't know whether to read it one way or the other. Painting it unless it's a complete "BS offer" he should be traded is meaningless. These things work on a continuum of current offers vs potential future offers and the probability in the trading team's estimation that those future offers are likely to come about; not in 2 neat categories of "BS offers" and "non-BS offers" I'll be the first to say Kenny hasn't been the best baseball ops guy/GM, but he and Hahn are not a bunch of imbeciles who just happened to stumble upon a baseball team and have no clue how to read these situations. They may be making the wrong decision, but it's clear that they don't believe that they are foregoing better offers by having not traded him yet. Otherwise, they would have already traded him. To say that the best market for him is unequivocally right now just simply ignores a lot of possibilities, that are equally likely based on the lack of info we truly have about the situation, and possibilities those people running the Sox clearly currently consider as having a pretty strong likelihood with the much better info on the situation that they have at their disposal.

[Con te Giolito]

Speaking in broad generalizations like this is useless. It's certainly possible the market won't get any better for Quintana. There are ample reasons why that could occur. It's equally possible that it does get better.

 

That is wrong. I explained why that is wrong in a post I made earlier that you seem to be ignoring.

[Chicago White Sox]

There isn't going to be be a better market for Quintana. You can't get better than being literally the only TOR pitcher available. The market may be scarce again someday, but Quintana will have less control then, and he can't realistically pitch better than he has been pitching. It's certainly possible for someone to pay more later, but it's not likely.

 

That doesn't mean take a BS offer, but there is definitely real motivation to get the deal done this offseason if at all possible.

100% agree with this.

[tray]

Hahn has and will continue to demand certain key position players from whichever team he is negotiating with. Next years potential free agent pitching market does not change that, nor does any pressure exerted on the Sox to make a trade. Patience is a virtue in trade negotiations. Hopefully he has a lot more patience than we do as Sox fans.

 

[chitownsportsfan]

Speaking in broad generalizations like this is useless. It's certainly possible the market won't get any better for Quintana. There are ample reasons why that could occur. It's equally possible that it does get better. Based on the info we have, we don't know whether to read it one way or the other. Painting it unless it's a complete "BS offer" he should be traded is meaningless. These things work on a continuum of current offers vs potential future offers and the probability in the trading team's estimation that those future offers are likely to come about; not in 2 neat categories of "BS offers" and "non-BS offers" I'll be the first to say Kenny hasn't been the best baseball ops guy/GM, but he and Hahn are not a bunch of imbeciles who just happened to stumble upon a baseball team and have no clue how to read these situations. They may be making the wrong decision, but it's clear that they don't believe that they are foregoing better offers by having not traded him yet. Otherwise, they would have already traded him. To say that the best market for him is unequivocally right now just simply ignores a lot of possibilities, that are equally likely based on the lack of info we truly have about the situation, and possibilities those people running the Sox clearly currently consider as having a pretty strong likelihood with the much better info on the situation that they have at their disposal.

 

post more.

[GreenSox]

I don't see the market getting better from the supply side; there's no one else on the market now so how could it possibly get better? Now it could improve from the demand-side in July as teams get desperate. Still I suspect then that supply will increase to meet the demand and keep the price down. The Yankee situation was different as their two relievers were far and away better than anybody else on the market

[Eminor3rd]

Speaking in broad generalizations like this is useless. It's certainly possible the market won't get any better for Quintana. There are ample reasons why that could occur. It's equally possible that it does get better. Based on the info we have, we don't know whether to read it one way or the other. Painting it unless it's a complete "BS offer" he should be traded is meaningless. These things work on a continuum of current offers vs potential future offers and the probability in the trading team's estimation that those future offers are likely to come about; not in 2 neat categories of "BS offers" and "non-BS offers" I'll be the first to say Kenny hasn't been the best baseball ops guy/GM, but he and Hahn are not a bunch of imbeciles who just happened to stumble upon a baseball team and have no clue how to read these situations. They may be making the wrong decision, but it's clear that they don't believe that they are foregoing better offers by having not traded him yet. Otherwise, they would have already traded him. To say that the best market for him is unequivocally right now just simply ignores a lot of possibilities, that are equally likely based on the lack of info we truly have about the situation, and possibilities those people running the Sox clearly currently consider as having a pretty strong likelihood with the much better info on the situation that they have at their disposal.

 

I would argue it's equally useless to expect the season is going to play out exactly as you (or any of us) expect it to play out -- where all the contenders are contenders and all the builders suck, there aren't any breakout players, unexpected bouncebacks, unexpected declines, unexpected injuries, or unexpected weird GM decisions -- thus creating a deadline where there "aren't any pitchers going to be available."

 

Of course things are going to change, but we can't know which things and how much. I'm not sure where you got the notion that I'm trying to put offers in black/white categories. I'm pretty well known for constantly suggesting that things are NOT black/white, in fact. I agree with you wholeheartedly that eventualities must be qualified and valued in terms of probabilities, which is exactly why Hahn must view the current situation as the likely best trade market for him. He can't know everything, so he must lean on what he CAN know, and allow the randomness to be randomness.

 

The correct way to treat a situation where you definitively know SOME things and definitively DON'T know other things is to make a plan based on what you can control and temper it with your best guess as to the probabilities of the unknown factors. Then you have to accept that things can go wrong anyway and form a contingency. I think you agree with this. The fact that you can't know everything is no reason to throw up your hands and say "well things could get worse OR better so it doesn't matter." That's not planning, that's gambling.

 

It is NOT AT ALL equally likely the market will get better, because there are vastly fewer ways that it can get better than the alternative. Basically, those things are (1) Quintana has a Cy Young caliber season, (2) more than four contenders find themselves with a substantial need for pitching. The ways it can get worse are myriad and more likely, in some cases virtually guaranteed. Some examples: (1) Quintana gets hurt, (2) Quintana gets worse, (3) Quintana has less control remaining, (4) fewer suitors in the picture, (5) suitors with lower quality prospects in the picture, (6) the presence of literally any comparable SP alternatives at all on the market, (7) the almost certainly greater presence of other types of upgrades on the market.

 

Again, I'm not saying that there definitely will not be a better or similar opportunity to extract value from Quintana in the future. But based on everything we can predict with a high level of certainty, those chances are very low.

 

EDIT:

 

And yes,

 

post more.

Edited January 13, 2017 by Eminor3rd

[Bob Sacamano]

At this point the Sox should be pitting teams offers against each other, not against the idea of the Sox holding onto Quintana.

 

Why would you think they aren't already doing this?

[southsider2k5]

At this point the Sox should be pitting teams offers against each other, not against the idea of the Sox holding onto Quintana.

 

Why do you think teams and their offers keep ending up in the news? Because reporters are doing their jobs and tricking GMs into telling reporters about the offers? Yeah, no.

[NCsoxfan]

There isn't going to be be a better market for Quintana. You can't get better than being literally the only TOR pitcher available. The market may be scarce again someday, but Quintana will have less control then, and he can't realistically pitch better than he has been pitching. It's certainly possible for someone to pay more later, but it's not likely.

 

That doesn't mean take a BS offer, but there is definitely real motivation to get the deal done this offseason if at all possible.

 

It doesn't matter if there's a "broad market". Really all you need is one team to meet your demands. So if you have 10 teams interested today but they don't meet your demands, is that a great market? Conversely if you get to the deadline and there's only 1 team interested but they're desperate and meet your demands, then that's better.

[The Beast]

If Quintana isn't traded by SoxFest, I think all signs point to him being on the Sox roster in 2017. These rumors have dried up and there's nothing new happening. My guess is he will be traded at the deadline, along with Robertson and possibly Cabrera and Frazier for beer and possibly a plate of nachos.

[Dick Allen]

I think something will happen before the season starts. Too much motivation on both sides. Q is a top of the rotation guy getting Charlie Morton money for 4 years. And the White Sox are motivated. They don't want this cloud hovering over Q during the season. Who knows how he will take it, and what it would mean to his performance. And even if it doesn't harm his performance, the daily questions about his status will get old before the first series ends.

 

That said, the price has to be right. I think eventually it will be. I think as soon as one team blinks another one or two will follow and RH will have his choice of packages.

Edited January 13, 2017 by Dick Allen

[ChiSoxFanMike]

If Quintana isn't traded by SoxFest, I think all signs point to him being on the Sox roster in 2017. These rumors have dried up and there's nothing new happening. My guess is he will be traded at the deadline, along with Robertson and possibly Cabrera and Frazier for beer and possibly a plate of nachos.

The Sox have to get a churro in this deal or it's not enough IMO.

[Balta1701]

Just a thought but is it possible everyone is taking the Cashman "3 elite prospects" thing a little too literal? Every GM overrates their own players/prospects. For all we know Hahn asked for something pretty reasonable like Frazier, Kaprielian and Andjuar + an A baller and Cashman is overplaying his guys to the media. Kaprielian and Andjuar are both very good prospects, but I wouldn't lump either into the elite category. Then again the entire term "elite" is relative and subject to interpretation. I honestly don't believe Hahn would have demanded Torres and Frazier + a top pitching prospect and not budged though. On paper the Yankees are a great match and have a lot to offer, to be that stubborn doesn't seem practical or benificial. I just think what a lot of others have been saying, Cashman is building something and holding onto his prospects and a deal was never going to happen.

Yes, everyone is taking that interpretation too literally. This is a negotiation tactic.

[steveno89]

Yes, everyone is taking that interpretation too literally. This is a negotiation tactic.

 

"Elite" is a relative term

 

Every organization evaluates prospects differently

 

The Quintana trade negotiations clearly have gone differently than the Eaton or Sale deals, but that doesn't mean a framework can't be figured out

 

A Pirates blog said Pittsburgh should offer Glasnow/Newman/Craig and get a deal done. I do not think the White Sox accept that offer.