Sox holding talks "daily" on Q

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Houston can kiss my Astros . Poop or get off the pot and take some Ex-lax to get rid of that constipation.

[BlackSox13]

Rogers latest. Nothing new really, just some reading material next time y'all are on the s***ter. You're welcome.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/213028800/as...quintana-trade/

[witesoxfan]

I disagree with Bregman. I think they believe he is very important to the roster. Having a good glove at 3B, especially with their staff, who has good offensive potential is important.

 

As for Meadows, the Pirates have been shopping McCutchen because they can't afford him for the next contract. It appears that Meadows is the replacement. The Pirates need to have at least a shot at the playoffs each year to maintain the fan base. From all reports Meadows is the player who can replace him and they are reluctant to lose a player that close to the MLB, they need to replace an MLB player.

 

all of this is JMHO but it doesn't take a genius to see where these negotiations are going. Maybe RH/KW will wear them down but it sure doesn't look like it.

 

This is exactly how I view the situation as well. The Red Sox were ultimately willing to give up Moncada because he is ready midseason 2017 at the earliest, and more likely midseason 2018. If the window isn't opening, it's closing, so they wanted to open it a little more. Bregman is apart of the Astros' current window, and the philosophy in Pittsburgh dictates that they have suitable replacements for current players.

 

My prediction would be that I don't foresee Jose Quintana playing with Andrew McCutcheon, unless some 3rd party ponies up to acquire both of them. I think if the Pirates acquire Quintana, they'll probably send McCutcheon out for prospects and will either fill their outfield from within or have Melky included with the Sox picking up the majority of the tab while the Sox acquire another player in the deal (not Meadows). I would also imagine a McCutcheon deal happens prior to a Quintana deal, so while it may look like a 3 way trade, it would would actually be two separate trades between 3 teams, with the Pirates being the middle man.

[Con te Giolito]

Then they have to cash in Meadows either this offseason or next, with this offseason making far more sense if they could get a player with several years of control, and they're not going to find a better budgetary match than Quintana.

This has been my argument. If they cannot move Cutch and wont trade Meadows their only options are to do something ridiculous like stash Meadows in AAA for 2 years (begging for a grievance), play Meadows at 1b or try to move Marte/Polanco. The alternative, flipping Meadows now to fill a position of huge need and taking the next two years to develop another OF, seems to make a ton more sense.

 

Their desperation to move McCutchen has only torpedoed what little value he had coming into the offseason. I just dont see their price on him being met by Toronto.

[Balta1701]

I disagree with Bregman. I think they believe he is very important to the roster. Having a good glove at 3B, especially with their staff, who has good offensive potential is important.

 

As for Meadows, the Pirates have been shopping McCutchen because they can't afford him for the next contract. It appears that Meadows is the replacement. The Pirates need to have at least a shot at the playoffs each year to maintain the fan base. From all reports Meadows is the player who can replace him and they are reluctant to lose a player that close to the MLB, they need to replace an MLB player.

 

all of this is JMHO but it doesn't take a genius to see where these negotiations are going. Maybe RH/KW will wear them down but it sure doesn't look like it.

Then I will tell the Pirates and the Astros..."good luck with that".

 

The Pirates want to move McCutchen, but given that he just had a down year they're going to have to give him away at a discount if they're moving him - that much is already clear. So, they get a choice - give McCutchen away at a discount and play for 2018, or actually make a run at things this year. If McCutchen does have some recovery for the year, they'd still be giving him away at a discount next offseason because he'd be under team control for 1 year, and they'll be paying his salary this year. If they hold McCutchen and he does have a comeback year, they're competitive for best outfield in the league, they have a solid infield, but here's their rotation:

Cole

Taillon

Nova

Glasnow

Kuhl

 

There's some talent in that rotation, but you've got 2 prospects, one of whom has control issues and hit the DL last year, another who is now 2 years removed from TJS, Cole who is a legit top of the rotation starter but who only threw 116 innings last year, Nova who is a "Searage hopefully fixed him" guy, no one in their rotation who threw more than 165 innings total last year, Kuhl who is a sinkerballer and a kid with some talent, and 5 righties/no lefties. That rotation has talent, but for them to challenge the Cubs or Cardinals literally everything needs to go right - if Cole repeated his injury-riddled 2016 then they're not going anywhere.

 

So, they want to go against the Cubs and the Cardinals with that rotation, I say good luck.

 

The Astros want to hold Bregmann and all their other guys? Fine.

Keuchel

McHugh

McCullers

Morton

Fiers

Musgrove

There's talent there again, but out of 6 guys, one of them had an ERA below 4 last year, 1 of them threw more than 168 innings, several of them were hurt down the stretch. Really, you're taking that up against Sale/Porcello/Price/Pomeranz/Wright/Rodriguez and Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar/Tomlin/Bauer? Hell, Hamels/Darvish/Perez/Cashner might outpitch them, and there's a real good chance Seattle's rotation does too.

 

So yeah, Astros and Pirates, you guys are confident in those rotations? I say good luck. You're going to need it.

[iamshack]

This is exactly how I view the situation as well. The Red Sox were ultimately willing to give up Moncada because he is ready midseason 2017 at the earliest, and more likely midseason 2018. If the window isn't opening, it's closing, so they wanted to open it a little more. Bregman is apart of the Astros' current window, and the philosophy in Pittsburgh dictates that they have suitable replacements for current players.

 

My prediction would be that I don't foresee Jose Quintana playing with Andrew McCutcheon, unless some 3rd party ponies up to acquire both of them. I think if the Pirates acquire Quintana, they'll probably send McCutcheon out for prospects and will either fill their outfield from within or have Melky included with the Sox picking up the majority of the tab while the Sox acquire another player in the deal (not Meadows). I would also imagine a McCutcheon deal happens prior to a Quintana deal, so while it may look like a 3 way trade, it would would actually be two separate trades between 3 teams, with the Pirates being the middle man.

I just get annoyed that we allow teams to expand this notion of not moving players at the trade deadline from the mlb team to a full-blown we won't move players in the offseason that are part of a team's contention window. To me, that is a steaming hot load of bulls***.

 

A player of Quintana's caliber and contract terms justifies a little moving and shaking to the rest of the roster in my opinion. Not only that, but it results in the White Sox being forced to take more risk on players by definition, as those who have less risk associated with them will now be part of the god damned contention window. So now you are accepting players further away from the majors, or else players the team itself sees no immediate use for.

 

I have a very difficult time accepting this.

[ptatc]

Then I will tell the Pirates and the Astros..."good luck with that".

 

The Pirates want to move McCutchen, but given that he just had a down year they're going to have to give him away at a discount if they're moving him - that much is already clear. So, they get a choice - give McCutchen away at a discount and play for 2018, or actually make a run at things this year. If McCutchen does have some recovery for the year, they'd still be giving him away at a discount next offseason because he'd be under team control for 1 year, and they'll be paying his salary this year. If they hold McCutchen and he does have a comeback year, they're competitive for best outfield in the league, they have a solid infield, but here's their rotation:

Cole

Taillon

Nova

Glasnow

Kuhl

 

There's some talent in that rotation, but you've got 2 prospects, one of whom has control issues and hit the DL last year, another who is now 2 years removed from TJS, Cole who is a legit top of the rotation starter but who only threw 116 innings last year, Nova who is a "Searage hopefully fixed him" guy, no one in their rotation who threw more than 165 innings total last year, Kuhl who is a sinkerballer and a kid with some talent, and 5 righties/no lefties. That rotation has talent, but for them to challenge the Cubs or Cardinals literally everything needs to go right - if Cole repeated his injury-riddled 2016 then they're not going anywhere.

 

So, they want to go against the Cubs and the Cardinals with that rotation, I say good luck.

 

The Astros want to hold Bregmann and all their other guys? Fine.

Keuchel

McHugh

McCullers

Morton

Fiers

Musgrove

There's talent there again, but out of 6 guys, one of them had an ERA below 4 last year, 1 of them threw more than 168 innings, several of them were hurt down the stretch. Really, you're taking that up against Sale/Porcello/Price/Pomeranz/Wright/Rodriguez and Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar/Tomlin/Bauer? Hell, Hamels/Darvish/Perez/Cashner might outpitch them, and there's a real good chance Seattle's rotation does too.

 

So yeah, Astros and Pirates, you guys are confident in those rotations? I say good luck. You're going to need it.

I agree. That's why I've said all along that I have no problem with the sox keeping him. He will still be under contract when they are good again so don't give him away. Only trade him if the players they get back are worth more than a TOR proven pitcher.

[ptatc]

I just get annoyed that we allow teams to expand this notion of not moving players at the trade deadline from the mlb team to a full-blown we won't move players in the offseason that are part of a team's contention window. To me, that is a steaming hot load of bulls***.

 

A player of Quintana's caliber and contract terms justifies a little moving and shaking to the rest of the roster in my opinion. Not only that, but it results in the White Sox being forced to take more risk on players by definition, as those who have less risk associated with them will now be part of the god damned contention window. So now you are accepting players further away from the majors, or else players the team itself sees no immediate use for.

 

I have a very difficult time accepting this.

Then call their bluffs and don't trade him. The other teams are waiting for the Sox to lower their demands because they all know the Sox want to trade him. Just don't trade him and maybe they will be forced to trade later.

[Con te Giolito]

Then I will tell the Pirates and the Astros..."good luck with that".

 

The Pirates want to move McCutchen, but given that he just had a down year they're going to have to give him away at a discount if they're moving him - that much is already clear. So, they get a choice - give McCutchen away at a discount and play for 2018, or actually make a run at things this year. If McCutchen does have some recovery for the year, they'd still be giving him away at a discount next offseason because he'd be under team control for 1 year, and they'll be paying his salary this year. If they hold McCutchen and he does have a comeback year, they're competitive for best outfield in the league, they have a solid infield, but here's their rotation:

Cole

Taillon

Nova

Glasnow

Kuhl

 

There's some talent in that rotation, but you've got 2 prospects, one of whom has control issues and hit the DL last year, another who is now 2 years removed from TJS, Cole who is a legit top of the rotation starter but who only threw 116 innings last year, Nova who is a "Searage hopefully fixed him" guy, no one in their rotation who threw more than 165 innings total last year, Kuhl who is a sinkerballer and a kid with some talent, and 5 righties/no lefties. That rotation has talent, but for them to challenge the Cubs or Cardinals literally everything needs to go right - if Cole repeated his injury-riddled 2016 then they're not going anywhere.

 

So, they want to go against the Cubs and the Cardinals with that rotation, I say good luck.

 

The Astros want to hold Bregmann and all their other guys? Fine.

Keuchel

McHugh

McCullers

Morton

Fiers

Musgrove

There's talent there again, but out of 6 guys, one of them had an ERA below 4 last year, 1 of them threw more than 168 innings, several of them were hurt down the stretch. Really, you're taking that up against Sale/Porcello/Price/Pomeranz/Wright/Rodriguez and Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar/Tomlin/Bauer? Hell, Hamels/Darvish/Perez/Cashner might outpitch them, and there's a real good chance Seattle's rotation does too.

 

So yeah, Astros and Pirates, you guys are confident in those rotations? I say good luck. You're going to need it.

Yankees situation is even more dire going forward with their entire rotation coming up for free agency after this season (Tanaka has an opt out). Now unlike Houston and Pittsburgh the Yankees have the resources to go hog wild next year in a loaded FA class for pitchers, but even then they aren't going to spend $500m on pitchers on the eve of the Machado/Harper/Kershaw smorgasbord. Unless Severino gets his s*** together they dont have any close to the majors top tier pitching prospects either. Other than Sheffield (AA) all their top arms just wrapped up a season in A-ball. At best Kaprielian, Tate, Acevedo, Sheffield will be ready to play in the majors in 2018, and that's a year the Yankees have targeted for real contention to help lure in the monster FA's for the following winter so I doubt they want to go through the growing pains for multiple young arms.

 

I have a feeling someone is going to blink and the Sox will get Torres, Meadows or Bregman as their headliner. I didnt feel that way a couple weeks ago but the market for Q seems to be expanding as teams realize there no other options. The Rays have outlandish demands for an inferior pitcher in Archer and none of the remaining FA's are even rotation worthy (it was a terrible class to begin with). Quintana is all that's left until the deadline probably makes a few impending free agents available as rentals.

[iamshack]

Then call their bluffs and don't trade him. The other teams are waiting for the Sox to lower their demands because they all know the Sox want to trade him. Just don't trade him and maybe they will be forced to trade later.

Yeah, agreed. I just find the whole notion preposterous.

[Feeky Magee]

Not seeing too much of Derek Fisher's name but he'd definitely be a name I'd be targeting. Projects as the #33 prospect in baseball per Fangraphs' KATOH statistical projection system (highest Astro aside from Bregman), in 2016 hit .245/.373/.431 at AA and .290/.347/.505 at AAA. Probably limited to left-field but a plus runner.

[heirdog]

Then call their bluffs and don't trade him. The other teams are waiting for the Sox to lower their demands because they all know the Sox want to trade him. Just don't trade him and maybe they will be forced to trade later.

 

Isn't that exactly what Hahn is doing? If he wasn't, then Q would have been gone in December.

[Con te Giolito]

Not seeing too much of Derek Fisher's name but he'd definitely be a name I'd be targeting. Projects as the #33 prospect in baseball per Fangraphs' KATOH statistical projection system (highest Astro aside from Bregman), in 2016 hit .245/.373/.431 at AA and .290/.347/.505 at AAA. Probably limited to left-field but a plus runner.

Doesnt really fit the "build up the middle" strategy but I could see it. I think he fits better in a Bregman centered package than a Tucker headlined deal.

[chitownsportsfan]

Not seeing too much of Derek Fisher's name but he'd definitely be a name I'd be targeting. Projects as the #33 prospect in baseball per Fangraphs' KATOH statistical projection system (highest Astro aside from Bregman), in 2016 hit .245/.373/.431 at AA and .290/.347/.505 at AAA. Probably limited to left-field but a plus runner.

 

yea but can he coach the triangle offense?

[hi8is]

Hahn has shown in his short GM caeer that he's willing to hold onto assets and isn't trigger happy like Kdub.

[ptatc]

Isn't that exactly what Hahn is doing? If he wasn't, then Q would have been gone in December.

Yes, that is what RH/KW are doing, so far. The key is to not fold and give in to the lesser package at all. It will be interesting to see if they do hold out and not trade him.

[Chicago White Sox]

The Astros are not desperate enough for Quintana to give up Bregman. While there is no doubt they'd like to add a TOR starter, they at least have a deep stable of interesting young arms. Musgrove should be already be pushing Morton & Fiers for a spot, plus they'll have Martes & Paulino down in AAA as potential reinforcements by mid-season. Again, there may be question marks at the top, but I'm fairly certain they'd rather roll the dice with what they have and then reevaluate before deadline rather than give up Bregman's potential contributions over the next six years.

 

On the other hand, The Pirates might just be desperate enough for Quintana to give up Meadows. The Cubs aren't going anywhere anytime soon, so the Pirates have to decide if they want to be a serious threat and add to their team. Having to sell low on McCutchen might make the decision to go for it a little easier. Another added benefit is that Quintana should have plenty of value left in two years if they need to do a pivot and retool a bit. Plus with Meadows as the centerpiece, the Pirates should be able to compete a trade without including potential major league contributors next year in Glasnow & Bell. I see Meadows a far more realistic get than Bregman.

[Con te Giolito]

The Astros are not desperate enough for Quintana to give up Bregman. While there is no doubt they'd like to add a TOR starter, they at least have a deep stable of interesting young arms. Musgrove should be already be pushing Morton & Fiers for a spot, plus they'll have Martes & Paulino down in AAA as potential reinforcements by mid-season. Again, there may be question marks at the top, but I'm fairly certain they'd rather roll the dice with what they have and then reevaluate before deadline rather than give up Bregman's potential contributions over the next six years.

 

On the other hand, The Pirates might just be desperate enough for Quintana to give up Meadows. The Cubs aren't going anywhere anytime soon, so the Pirates have to decide if they want to be a serious threat and add to their team. Having to sell low on McCutchen might make the decision to go for it a little easier. Another added benefit is that Quintana should have plenty of value left in two years if they need to do a pivot and retool a bit. Plus with Meadows as the centerpiece, the Pirates should be able to compete a trade without including potential major league contributors next year in Glasnow & Bell. I see Meadows a far more realistic get than Bregman.

Well zips and Steamer both have Frazier and Bregman as pretty equal 2017 contributors. Now I dont think much more of these projection models than I do the garbage polling metrics that whiffed so badly in November, but I do think at least next year you can expect similar production from the two. So if Luhnow b****es up a storm about including Bregman and taking away from 2017 there is always Frazier to add in to grease a deal.

 

Bregman, Fisher, Perez for Quintana, Frazier...who says no? (aside from deluded Astros fans who think Bregman already belongs in Cooperstown)

[Jerksticks]

If we live in fantasy land for a minute more...I think Meadows would be great but Bregman would be absolutely badass. I think cashing in Q on an infielder is wiser than an outfielder. More risk of injury out there.

[NCsoxfan]

The @insidebaseball6 twitter account has some interesting (albeit not groundbreaking) info on Astros and Yankees interest in Q. Full disclosure, no idea if there's merit to it.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

While there is no doubt they'd like to add a TOR starter, they at least have a deep stable of interesting young arms.

A deep stable of interesting young arms gets you third place.

[Jerksticks]

Can we remerge the Quintana threads if the combined total nears Soxtalk's biggest thread?

[Chicago White Sox]

Not seeing too much of Derek Fisher's name but he'd definitely be a name I'd be targeting. Projects as the #33 prospect in baseball per Fangraphs' KATOH statistical projection system (highest Astro aside from Bregman), in 2016 hit .245/.373/.431 at AA and .290/.347/.505 at AAA. Probably limited to left-field but a plus runner.

How well has KATOH with their rankings? Has Fangraphs done a post-audit on the system?

[Jerksticks]

A deep stable of interesting young arms gets you third place.

Agreed. I think the Astros are in trouble as is. Their offense wasn't too good last year &they beefed it up, but that SP is not even close to championship caliber. Does their bullpen blow chunks too? No idea who they have in there.

 

Good job Hahn if you convince the Astros all they need is Q to compete with the Red Sox etc.

[Feeky Magee]

How well has KATOH with their rankings? Has Fangraphs done a post-audit on the system?

It's only been around for a year or so I think. Not sure if it can be used to retroactively rank prospects.