Sox holding talks "daily" on Q

[Eminor3rd]

Let's say I bought the car before I decided to return to college, back when I actually had a decent-paying job.

 

Now I know I should sell the car, but what if the offers I'm receiving aren't fair value? Yes, I know the car is depreciating the longer I keep it, but where is that balance between obtaining full market value and holding on to a depreciating asset that I have no need for?

 

That's the question.

 

Yes, that's what Hahn is dealing with, you're right.

 

But that's NOT the question that occurred in the chat, which drew the car metaphor. The chatter was saying that Quintana would be an effective mid to back end-rotation starter on a reasonable deal when they were likely to be good again, so they shouldn't trade him.

[iamshack]

Yes, that's what Hahn is dealing with, you're right.

 

But that's NOT the question that occurred in the chat, which drew the car metaphor. The chatter was saying that Quintana would be an effective mid to back end-rotation starter on a reasonable deal when they were likely to be good again, so they shouldn't trade him.

Well, to be fair, that is not what the poster here asked. The question the poster here asked is might it be worth it to hold onto Q for as long as two more years and either move him then or still allow him to be your top of the rotation starter in 2019?

 

With responded with an answer to a slightly different question, although I thought the metaphor was a pretty good one.

 

I think the only real distinction between Cameron's answer to the other question and the answer to the question our poster asked is the additional tweak I provided.

[Eminor3rd]

Well, to be fair, that is not what the poster here asked. The question the poster here asked is might it be worth it to hold onto Q for as long as two more years and either move him then or still allow him to be your top of the rotation starter in 2019?

 

With responded with an answer to a slightly different question, although I thought the metaphor was a pretty good one.

 

I think the only real distinction between Cameron's answer to the other question and the answer to the question our poster asked is the additional tweak I provided.

 

Fair indeed.

 

But, also to be fair, the comment EYE responded to was this: "Cameron's comment about Q being the most expensive #4 starter in history. What is he smoking? Terribly off base with that comment."

 

[TheFutureIsNear]

Let's say I bought the car before I decided to return to college, back when I actually had a decent-paying job.

 

Now I know I should sell the car, but what if the offers I'm receiving aren't fair value? Yes, I know the car is depreciating the longer I keep it, but where is that balance between obtaining full market value and holding on to a depreciating asset that I have no need for?

 

That's the question.

 

I don't see how that's even a question honestly. At some point you have to realize that you're just spiting yourself to hold out for "value." Unfortunately Q's value isn't what the White Sox say it is, it's what other teams are willing to pay. So if his market isn't up to your par now after the season Q just had and the 4 years of control, why on earth would it be better down the line? There's honestly no logical argument to keeping Q on this team past the 2017 deadline. And even waiting until the deadline is a mistake in my opinion, but I can at least somewhat see Hahn holding out for as long as he can if the offers truly aren't up to snuff. I think something will definitely break at some point in the next month though, Q is too good for every team to pass on trading for. Someone will step up for him.

 

 

[Balta1701]

I don't see how that's even a question honestly. At some point you have to realize that you're just spiting yourself to hold out for "value." Unfortunately Q's value isn't what the White Sox say it is, it's what other teams are willing to pay. So if his market isn't up to your par now after the season Q just had and the 4 years of control, why on earth would it be better down the line? There's honestly no logical argument to keeping Q on this team past the 2017 deadline. And even waiting until the deadline is a mistake in my opinion, but I can at least somewhat see Hahn holding out for as long as he can if the offers truly aren't up to snuff. I think something will definitely break at some point in the next month though, Q is too good for every team to pass on trading for. Someone will step up for him.

Because the one thing that does change is the desperation level of other teams. You want an example of that? Addison Russel for Jeff Samardzija.

 

If we have reached a point where there are no other teams willing to move top flight talent for a strong, #2 or better pitcher, that situation will almost certainly change in the future. Worth thinking about - one of the reasons why there may not be teams willing to make that kind of move right could very well be the fact that we've already devastated 2 other systems. So yes, any team trading for him later will have him for less time, but baseball history shows that teams do reach a point where they will make larger sacrifices.

 

I would be stunned if the Stros or Pirates did not do this. Frankly, I will call them stupid. I think I did that a page ago in different words. But if they're going to be dumb, then wait for teams who aren't.

[iamshack]

I don't see how that's even a question honestly. At some point you have to realize that you're just spiting yourself to hold out for "value." Unfortunately Q's value isn't what the White Sox say it is, it's what other teams are willing to pay. So if his market isn't up to your par now after the season Q just had and the 4 years of control, why on earth would it be better down the line? There's honestly no logical argument to keeping Q on this team past the 2017 deadline. And even waiting until the deadline is a mistake in my opinion, but I can at least somewhat see Hahn holding out for as long as he can if the offers truly aren't up to snuff. I think something will definitely break at some point in the next month though, Q is too good for every team to pass on trading for. Someone will step up for him.

Well, I've mentioned this previously...it seems to me like trading assets in MLB is not nearly as exact as trading other commodities. It's not like gold, or a car, or even the NFL draft picks, where there is a level of precision or defined value. I'm not sure there is a huge difference between what you might get for Q today versus a year from today.

 

 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Because the one thing that does change is the desperation level of other teams. You want an example of that? Addison Russel for Jeff Samardzija.

 

If we have reached a point where there are no other teams willing to move top flight talent for a strong, #2 or better pitcher, that situation will almost certainly change in the future. Worth thinking about - one of the reasons why there may not be teams willing to make that kind of move right could very well be the fact that we've already devastated 2 other systems. So yes, any team trading for him later will have him for less time, but baseball history shows that teams do reach a point where they will make larger sacrifices.

 

I would be stunned if the Stros or Pirates did not do this. Frankly, I will call them stupid. I think I did that a page ago in different words. But if they're going to be dumb, then wait for teams who aren't.

 

I totally agree with you on the Astros. They are idiots if they do not attempt to improve their starting pitching. No organization can win strictly on home-grown talent. Even the Cubs who hit on just about every position player in their system had to buy Arrieta, Lester, Chapman, and now Davis from other teams or the FA market. The Pirates are in between a rock and a hard place though. They have a much tougher hill to climb in that division, so I could see them weighing the cost of someone like Q and whether it truly puts them over the top. I personally don't think he makes them THAT much better that he needs to be acquired - especially if the Sox asking price is as high as it appears to be.

[witesoxfan]

I totally agree with you on the Astros. They are idiots if they do not attempt to improve their starting pitching. No organization can win strictly on home-grown talent. Even the Cubs who hit on just about every position player in their system had to buy Arrieta, Lester, Chapman, and now Davis from other teams or the FA market. The Pirates are in between a rock and a hard place though. They have a much tougher hill to climb in that division, so I could see them weighing the cost of someone like Q and whether it truly puts them over the top. I personally don't think he makes them THAT much better that he needs to be acquired - especially if the Sox asking price is as high as it appears to be.

 

The Astros have Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Fiers, Morton with Musgrove and Paulino in the wings. It's not the most overpowering rotation, but it's not a bad rotation to enter a season.

[ChiSox59]

The Astros have Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Fiers, Morton with Musgrove and Paulino in the wings. It's not the most overpowering rotation, but it's not a bad rotation to enter a season.

 

And Martes. They have options.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

The Astros have Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Fiers, Morton with Musgrove and Paulino in the wings. It's not the most overpowering rotation, but it's not a bad rotation to enter a season.

 

I never said it was bad, but that rotation will not beat the Red Sox or Indians.

[Balta1701]

I never said it was bad, but that rotation will not beat the Red Sox or Indians.

And it might not beat the Rangers, Mariners, and Angels - the bottom two of whom look like they've improved compared to last year on paper.

[Dick Allen]

Houston will improve their rotation. It really doesn't hurt you in the standings ifyou get the pitcher at the Winter Meetings or a day before the season starts.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I totally agree with you on the Astros. They are idiots if they do not attempt to improve their starting pitching. No organization can win strictly on home-grown talent. Even the Cubs who hit on just about every position player in their system had to buy Arrieta, Lester, Chapman, and now Davis from other teams or the FA market. The Pirates are in between a rock and a hard place though. They have a much tougher hill to climb in that division, so I could see them weighing the cost of someone like Q and whether it truly puts them over the top. I personally don't think he makes them THAT much better that he needs to be acquired - especially if the Sox asking price is as high as it appears to be.

 

[witesoxfan]

I never said it was bad, but that rotation will not beat the Red Sox or Indians.

 

I wouldn't necessarily say that either. You could have easily said something similar to that about the 2015 Kansas City Royals, what with Ventura, Volquez, Cueto, and Young. That was not a super strong rotation either, but they made it work.

 

Bottom line, they can probably afford to be patient.

 

Quintana will be moved in time. As long as there are multiple teams bidding, one of those teams will blink at some point soon.

[Balta1701]

Houston will improve their rotation. It really doesn't hurt you in the standings ifyou get the pitcher at the Winter Meetings or a day before the season starts.

Not quite the same thing exactly, but worth noting that those Astros went 7-17 out of the gate in April of 2016 and a winning record that month could have put them in the playoffs. So, day before the season starts ok, but trade deadline...well you can see how it worked last year.

[Bob Sacamano]

Houston will improve their rotation. It really doesn't hurt you in the standings ifyou get the pitcher at the Winter Meetings or a day before the season starts.

 

I honestly think its plausible they open with their current rotation and add in June/July if they need to.

[Balta1701]

I honestly think its plausible they open with their current rotation and add in June/July if they need to.

Ok, my comment can be called preempting yours.

[Con te Giolito]

Buying can applied to FA and trades. The Red Sox "bought" Chris Sale for 4 prospects a month ago. I hope this isn't too complicated a concept for you.

[Con te Giolito]

The Astros have Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Fiers, Morton with Musgrove and Paulino in the wings. It's not the most overpowering rotation, but it's not a bad rotation to enter a season.

Shoulder injury, chronic elbow injury, average starter, below average starter, reclamation project. Color me unimpressed.

[witesoxfan]

Shoulder injury, chronic elbow injury, average starter, below average starter, reclamation project. Color me unimpressed.

 

You don't have to be impressed.

[Con te Giolito]

You don't have to be impressed.

OK let me put it a different way. The Astros rotation is not capable of taking a team to the World Series, and probably not even the playoffs.

[caulfield12]

I wouldn't necessarily say that either. You could have easily said something similar to that about the 2015 Kansas City Royals, what with Ventura, Volquez, Cueto, and Young. That was not a super strong rotation either, but they made it work.

 

Bottom line, they can probably afford to be patient.

 

Quintana will be moved in time. As long as there are multiple teams bidding, one of those teams will blink at some point soon.

 

And they also started a critical World Series game with a dude now pitching for the Melbourne Aces in Jeremy Guthrie.

 

 

As to an earlier comment about the Pitching Death Star. The White Sox minor league system was even stronger from 1998-2001. Of that group, only Garland and Buehrle made it to 2005. Contreras and Garcia came via trades, along with El Duque. Then you had McCarthy emerge for ten starts. But essentially only 2/6 from best minor league pitching class the Sox ever assembled.

 

That same timeline would be 2021 for us, although the 2003 White Sox got there in just three years (albeit different situations).

Edited January 7, 2017 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

OK let me put it a different way. The Astros rotation is not capable of taking a team to the World Series, and probably not even the playoffs.

 

They have a pretty good offense too, and their bullpen is solid as well. I think they'd be able to make the playoffs. Quintana would certainly help, but I don't see him as a necessity.

[TheFutureIsNear]

OK let me put it a different way. The Astros rotation is not capable of taking a team to the World Series, and probably not even the playoffs.

 

They won 84 games last year and they are essentially adding McCann, Beltran, Reddick, Bregman, and Gurriell to their lineup. The last 2 were on the team for the stretch run last year, but adding those 5 to your lineup for a full year is no joke. If Kuechle and McCullers are healthy I dint think 90 wins is crazy at all.

[caulfield12]

Ths is where we wait for another version of the 2016 White Sox starting off hot...and getting desperate to acquire James Shields. The difference being Q will still be the biggest asset out there, unless Archer, Sonny Gray or Duffy are put on the market again, assuming they're pitching extremely well for teams out of the playoff race.

 

Bac to the Astros. AJ Reed is surely blocked now. Sox scouts agree on him as the third piece, they still should be able to get a deal done. Four players in total. Tucker as the centerpiece, once again the scouts are making the call on him.

Edited January 7, 2017 by caulfield12