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Sox holding talks "daily" on Q


Sleepy Harold

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 09:41 PM)
Newman has basically no power.

So is he likely to be a ground ball machine then?

 

I really don't like the idea of Newman being the best bat coming back to the Sox. For me it has to be Meadows or Bell or hello Astros.

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Waiting until the deadline is dangerous. What if Glasnow is pitching? What if Martes is pitching for the Astros? They probably wont want to move those guys if they are contributing to the team. Then your screwed. Look at the free agent list next offseason plus with the change in compensation. I'd tell the White Sox to screw themselves with that asking price with the free agent market becoming much more friendly.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 07:46 PM)
Not that these are the end all be all and clearly they are a bit out of date, but here are Baseball America's mid-season rankings:

 

1. Moncada

4. Giolito

6. Glasnow

10. Meadows

38. Bell

48. Lopez

51. Newman

72. Hayes

93. Kopech* (top 30 to 40 now)

100 - 150: Basabe & Dunning

 

Anyways, the point of this exercise was to show how a proposed Glasnow, Bell, Newman return compares to those of the Sale & Eaton deals. And while Glasnow's stock has slipped a bit, I don't see much of an argument for him not being a top 20 prospect still. His value is comparable to Giolito's and I'd say Bell's is comparable to Lopez's. However, Newman is a far superior prospect to Dunning, which makes the overall return better than the Eaton deal. And honestly, it's probably not too far off from the Sale deal, although I think Moncada is such an elite prospect makes it a clear cut better return. I think asking for a fourth prospect, especially one like Hayes, is asking for too much. I'd feel pretty comfortable saying with Hayes included that's a better return than what we got for Sale and I don't see that happening.

I was just going off some of the other stuff that said Bell may not be available.

 

Looking at BA's recent rankings, they put Glasnow/Bell/Newman as Pittsburgh's 3/4/5 prospects.

 

I don't think that compares to Boston's package at all.

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QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 07:52 PM)
Waiting until the deadline is dangerous. What if Glasnow is pitching? What if Martes is pitching for the Astros? They probably wont want to move those guys if they are contributing to the team. Then your screwed. Look at the free agent list next offseason plus with the change in compensation. I'd tell the White Sox to screw themselves with that asking price with the free agent market becoming much more friendly.

I don't think we can accept something less than we're comfortable with out of fear of that.

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QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:52 PM)
Waiting until the deadline is dangerous. What if Glasnow is pitching? What if Martes is pitching for the Astros? They probably wont want to move those guys if they are contributing to the team. Then your screwed. Look at the free agent list next offseason plus with the change in compensation. I'd tell the White Sox to screw themselves with that asking price with the free agent market becoming much more friendly.

 

Or new prospects emerge and today's darlings stumble. Welcome to world of prospects. We have Q signed for 4 freaking years, there is ZERO reason to rush this - even if it means another year

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 09:52 PM)
I was just going off some of the other stuff that said Bell may not be available.

 

Looking at BA's recent rankings, they put Glasnow/Bell/Newman as Pittsburgh's 3/4/5 prospects.

 

I don't think that compares to Boston's package at all.

 

They said they would have put AB ahead of Moncada so the Boston deal was their 2/3/8/30 prospects for sale. 3/4/5 is comparable. OTOH this is a bad way to evaluate trades.

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QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 09:55 PM)
Or new prospects emerge and today's darlings stumble. Welcome to world of prospects. We have Q signed for 4 freaking years, there is ZERO reason to rush this - even if it means another year

 

 

Except the price will go down. The CBA turned the clock on for the White Sox. Now prospects become even more valuable with free agency an even more attractive option for the teams in the middle of the draft. Now they dont have to sacrifice their 1st round pick. It's just money. Money is easier to eat when you screw up instead of seeing the guys you just traded on a big league club contributing.

 

I think what your going to get is what your going to get. Either they need to make a trade now or keep him for the 4 years and hope your good by then.

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QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 09:52 PM)
Waiting until the deadline is dangerous. What if Glasnow is pitching? What if Martes is pitching for the Astros? They probably wont want to move those guys if they are contributing to the team. Then your screwed. Look at the free agent list next offseason plus with the change in compensation. I'd tell the White Sox to screw themselves with that asking price with the free agent market becoming much more friendly.

 

Flipside of that is true as well.

 

Glasnow shows #5 stuff bu walking 5 per game

Keller get TJS

Newman has a terrible year

Meadows fails to adjust to AAA

 

Etc...

 

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QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:52 PM)
Waiting until the deadline is dangerous. What if Glasnow is pitching? What if Martes is pitching for the Astros? They probably wont want to move those guys if they are contributing to the team. Then your screwed. Look at the free agent list next offseason plus with the change in compensation. I'd tell the White Sox to screw themselves with that asking price with the free agent market becoming much more friendly.

 

There will be more than 2 teams in need of Q at the deadline. Any SP on the open market even close to the quality of Q will get $150M+ while Q would still have 3 years at only $35(?)M. Of course the Frazier and Torres rumors are ridiculous, most of the pirates/Astros talk is very realistic and very borderline in my opinion.

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What would you rather do if you were the opposing team

 

Overpay for a pitcher on the open market plus not giving up your 1st round pick. The free agent market has some really good names next year.

 

or

 

Trading a huge amount of prospects for a very good pitcher but your emptying your farm our quite a bit

Edited by Baron
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QUOTE (reiks12 @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 09:58 PM)
Flipside of that is true as well.

 

Glasnow shows #5 stuff bu walking 5 per game

Keller get TJS

Newman has a terrible year

Meadows fails to adjust to AAA

 

Etc...

 

 

and Q blows out his arm. Trade him now or keep him.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 07:57 PM)
They said they would have put AB ahead of Moncada so the Boston deal was their 2/3/8/30 prospects for sale. 3/4/5 is comparable. OTOH this is a bad way to evaluate trades.

Yeah, that was a lazy post by me.

 

The point I am making is that Moncada/Kopech are stronger prospects by a long shot than Glasnow and Bell IMHO.

 

Newman doesn't make up for that in his value over Basabe and Diaz.

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QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 05:02 AM)
What would you rather do if you were the opposing team

 

Overpay for a pitcher on the open market plus not giving up your 1st round pick. The free agent market has some really good names next year.

 

or

 

Trading a huge amount of prospects for a very good pitcher but your emptying your farm our quite a bit

 

Pirates could never afford to pay for a top FA starter

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Funny how we point to Q's durability as part of his trade value but when it comes to the idea of keeping Q the question of " what if he gets injured" comes up. If one really believes Q is durable, and I do, then why worry about the Sox holding onto Q until they get the right offer?

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I'm glad Sox are sticking to guns, I don't mean to sound like I want to wave a white flag. I guess my stance is if our floors on this trade are Glasnow/Keller/Newman/and Hayes or a 4th or Martes/Tucker/Paulino/4th, then I already feel good.

 

We are talking about 4 top ten prospects from the best farms in the game. Few players command that.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:04 PM)
Oh come on.

 

This guy is basically the second coming of Mark Buehrle.

 

The odds of that are remote.

 

I was being sarcastic. Your taking a risk with prospects we all know that. But I dont see how not trading him is a good thing. Maybe if the free agent compensation didnt change I would be singing a different tune.

 

I think maybe we need to accept these teams value Q at a place where the White Sox are not at and that's all it's going to be. What do the White Sox do then? I dont see the value staying even level in that case.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 08:07 PM)
I'm glad Sox are sticking to guns, I don't mean to sound like I want to wave a white flag. I guess my stance is if our floors on this trade are Glasnow/Keller/Newman/and Hayes or a 4th or Martes/Tucker/Paulino/4th, then I already feel good.

 

We are talking about 4 top ten prospects from the best farms in the game. Few players command that.

I just might take that package from the Pirates..

 

I don't feel comfortable with Martes for some reason from the Astros.

Edited by iamshack
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QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 08:07 PM)
I was being sarcastic. Your taking a risk with prospects we all know that. But I dont see how not trading him is a good thing. Maybe if the free agent compensation didnt change I would be singing a different tune.

 

I think maybe we need to accept these teams value Q at a place where the White Sox are not at and that's all it's going to be. What do the White Sox do then? I dont see the value staying even level in that case.

It definitely carries some risk, which is why I've argued that the price goes up, not down once the season starts.

 

But I do think that the pressure to put a competitive team over the top sometimes trumps these bs games these GMs are playing at the moment.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:08 PM)
I just might take that package from the Pirates..

 

I don't feel comfortable with Martes for some reason from the Astros.

 

Me neither. Yankees were only team I felt good about even the lite packages but I also love Newman. Getting incredible plate coverage like that would be a huge addition.

 

Last year I thought we could overcome our offensive struggles with cheap FA power since we couldn't find OBP. That's was wrong. Love hitting makeup of Newman/Bell.

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QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 11:07 PM)
I was being sarcastic. Your taking a risk with prospects we all know that. But I dont see how not trading him is a good thing. Maybe if the free agent compensation didnt change I would be singing a different tune.

 

I think maybe we need to accept these teams value Q at a place where the White Sox are not at and that's all it's going to be. What do the White Sox do then? I dont see the value staying even level in that case.

Then wait for a team's level of desperation to change. We have valued him fairly given his contract status. If teams like the Pirates and Astros think their rotations are satisfactory, then wish them good luck and we'll see if they have the best deal come midseason. Look how we're already saying that the value of Torres changed for the Yankees just in a 3 month period - there will be different teams in the game in June.

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