Baron Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:11 PM) It definitely carries some risk, which is why I've argued that the price goes up, not down once the season starts. But I do think that the pressure to put a competitive team over the top sometimes trumps these bs games these GMs are playing at the moment. I guess we'll find out. Those two teams(Pirates and Astros) have alot of pressure on them. I'm just not sure it's enough pressure for them to sacrifice everyone we want. Pirates may be content to just stay the course. Whatever that might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHurt3515 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:13 PM) Duke was the 3rd Well 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWSpalehoseCWS Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:14 PM) Then wait for a team's level of desperation to change. We have valued him fairly given his contract status. If teams like the Pirates and Astros think their rotations are satisfactory, then wish them good luck and we'll see if they have the best deal come midseason. Look how we're already saying that the value of Torres changed for the Yankees just in a 3 month period - there will be different teams in the game in June. You also are banking on them still being in the race come July. There's always a chance one of these teams is worse than they appear on paper; happens all the time. At least right now you have 2 teams theoretically bidding against each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beautox Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 09:41 PM) Newman has basically no power. Ryan Theriot part deux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 12:20 AM) You also are banking on them still being in the race come July. There's always a chance one of these teams is worse than they appear on paper; happens all the time. At least right now you have 2 teams theoretically bidding against each other. No. I'm banking on there being teams in the pennant race in July. It doesn't have to be the Pirates and Astros. I predict that by July there will be teams in a pennant race, some of whom will need pitching. Honestly, I would be surprised if both of those teams are in the race given the setup of their rotations - one of them is going to have enough bad luck that they'll drop out like they did last year. But there will be a pennant chase, and due to the fact that there will be a pennant chase, there will be teams who decide they want to win that pennant. Prospects we aren't looking at right now will have good first halves and look better. If the Pirates and Astros think they're fine now, good luck to them. The market will exist in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 08:25 PM) No. I'm banking on there being teams in the pennant race in July. It doesn't have to be the Pirates and Astros. I predict that by July there will be teams in a pennant race, some of whom will need pitching. Honestly, I would be surprised if both of those teams are in the race given the setup of their rotations - one of them is going to have enough bad luck that they'll drop out like they did last year. But there will be a pennant chase, and due to the fact that there will be a pennant chase, there will be teams who decide they want to win that pennant. Prospects we aren't looking at right now will have good first halves and look better. If the Pirates and Astros think they're fine now, good luck to them. The market will exist in June. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:28 PM) Exactly. Hopefully your not expecting to get MLB Ready Prospects in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panerista Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:25 PM) No. I'm banking on there being teams in the pennant race in July. It doesn't have to be the Pirates and Astros. I predict that by July there will be teams in a pennant race, some of whom will need pitching. Honestly, I would be surprised if both of those teams are in the race given the setup of their rotations - one of them is going to have enough bad luck that they'll drop out like they did last year. But there will be a pennant chase, and due to the fact that there will be a pennant chase, there will be teams who decide they want to win that pennant. Prospects we aren't looking at right now will have good first halves and look better. If the Pirates and Astros think they're fine now, good luck to them. The market will exist in June. The problem is, you need teams to be and a pennant race and have pieces we might want. Also, in season your odds of getting MLB ready talent or close drops because teams are actively using them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (Deadpool @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 11:30 PM) The problem is, you need teams to be and a pennant race and have pieces we might want. Also, in season your odds of getting MLB ready talent or close drops because teams are actively using them. Thankfully, the White Sox dropped the requirement that any player we get back has to already have MLB experience in their previous trades, so there is no reason to think that they wouldn't take someone back from AA or just arrived in AAA as a centerpiece in a deal at the deadline. I am happy about that because that was the right thing to do, so to me that's not an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (beautox @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:24 PM) Ryan Theriot part deux His minor league numbers are better than theriot including slugging. Closer to Melkys bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:20 PM) You also are banking on them still being in the race come July. There's always a chance one of these teams is worse than they appear on paper; happens all the time. At least right now you have 2 teams theoretically bidding against each other. I think waiting is to our advatage. No reason to cave. Like someone else mentioned, the pressure to win now during a competitive window is going to trump any fair value talk. While I'd like the deal to get done now, part of me wants to wait to see which competitive teams blow holes in their rotations by June (injury, underperformance etc). Q will only gain value because of his contract. Teams with shorter windows can always use him to replenish and teams with longer windows can keep him around and probably STILL replenish in 3.5 years. Q is a goldmine for whoever acquires him. Plus I don't really buy into next year's FA class hurting him. Those guys are going to cost $100-$200M plus draft pick. That's not easy for most teams to do. Q will still be prized for the duration of his deal. Now I'm rambling but it wouldn't hurt the Sox to see how some of these targeted prospects progress or regress the first few months next year. Some pros some cons either way, but we're sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 (edited) QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 08:29 PM) Hopefully your not expecting to get MLB Ready Prospects in that case. No, but not so far away that they become incredibly risky either. I'd rather take on a bit more risk and get a better package though than feel like I am settling because I allow the other team to completely dictate terms. Edited January 10, 2017 by iamshack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nokona Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:29 PM) Hopefully your not expecting to get MLB Ready Prospects in that case. Really? Because Benintendi was apparently on the table for Sale in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (Nokona @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:37 PM) Really? Because Benintendi was apparently on the table for Sale in July. Who reported that? I remember him being off limits almost immediately because of how well he was playing. Not to mention the initial talks were about JBJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:37 PM) No, but not so far away that they become incredibly risky either. I'd rather take on a bit more risk and get a better package though than feel like I am settling because I allow the other team to completely dictate terms. I'd rather have quality AA-A ball players as well. Teams are so stingy with prospects though. I think the Pirates eventually cave because they have to. But I dont think it'll be Meadows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Poop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 08:50 PM) I'd rather have quality AA-A ball players as well. Teams are so stingy with prospects though. I think the Pirates eventually cave because they have to. But I dont think it'll be Meadows. So who gets it done from Pitt outside of Meadows for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 08:35 PM) I think waiting is to our advatage. No reason to cave. Like someone else mentioned, the pressure to win now during a competitive window is going to trump any fair value talk. While I'd like the deal to get done now, part of me wants to wait to see which competitive teams blow holes in their rotations by June (injury, underperformance etc). Q will only gain value because of his contract. Teams with shorter windows can always use him to replenish and teams with longer windows can keep him around and probably STILL replenish in 3.5 years. Q is a goldmine for whoever acquires him. Plus I don't really buy into next year's FA class hurting him. Those guys are going to cost $100-$200M plus draft pick. That's not easy for most teams to do. Q will still be prized for the duration of his deal. Now I'm rambling but it wouldn't hurt the Sox to see how some of these targeted prospects progress or regress the first few months next year. Some pros some cons either way, but we're sitting pretty. I'm also on the "keep Q til someone meets what you want" bandwagon. Odds are good that Q will just keep being Q and that is an uninjured, very good and very cheap pitcher. I am also sure that many of the prospects offered but not accepted will not be as consistent ,meaning the odds of regression or injury are greater than the odds of Q regressing or being injured. Of course when you are talking about multiple prospects for one guy some will also advance but since many top prospects ultimately fail , some losing value is a given while with Q his remarkably above average consistency will pay off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 (edited) Q is probably the ONE guy on the team you could feel 100% comfortable with explaining the situation (which he already knows through his agent), and getting nothing less than his best performance during the season up until the time he's traded. That's also a quite plausible reason they weren't as concerned with dealing him first, along with the fact that he was always going to be the most "undervalued/underappreciated," along with Eaton (who clearly had at least one big fan in the GM ranks). Or you can go with the Sale/Eaton/Duke conspiracy theories. Edited January 10, 2017 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 09:03 PM) Or you can go with the Sale/Eaton/Duke conspiracy theories. I should have reserved my final monthly usage of "poop" for this quote - but alas, the quota is now used up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Lopez's Ghost Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Call in a relief pooper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 10:14 PM) Then wait for a team's level of desperation to change. We have valued him fairly given his contract status. If teams like the Pirates and Astros think their rotations are satisfactory, then wish them good luck and we'll see if they have the best deal come midseason. Look how we're already saying that the value of Torres changed for the Yankees just in a 3 month period - there will be different teams in the game in June. There will also be different sellers in the game come the trade deadline. Quintana will be less attractive to many teams when rentals are available at a far more affordable price. Next offseason, the big market teams will have a variety of pitching options to choose from that only cost money. That leaves mid-market teams and there is no guarantee they'll still have massive holes in their rotation (Astros) or will still be going for it (Pirates). And let's not ignore there are realistically only a handful of teams that have the prospect capital to land Quintana. I just can't find any rational argument for why we think we'd get more six or 12 months from now. The offers received this offseason should pretty much indicate Quintana's value IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 09:12 PM) There will also be different sellers in the game come the trade deadline. Quintana will be less attractive to many teams when rentals are available at a far more affordable price. Next offseason, the big market teams will have a variety of pitching options to choose from that only cost money. That leaves mid-market teams and there is no guarantee they'll still have massive holes in their rotation (Astros) or will still be going for it (Pirates). And let's not ignore there are realistically only a handful of teams that have the prospect capital to land Quintana. I just can't find any rational argument for why we think we'd get more six or 12 months from now. The offers received this offseason should pretty much indicate Quintana's value IMO. The same reason Cubs and Indians paid up. Pressure on GMs. Pressure on GMs who may not be around when some prospect hits the bigs in a year or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 (edited) Or let's say the Yankees are in first place at the All-Star Break but obviously need starting pitching and Torres/Frazier etc., are struggling a bit in the minor leagues. Prospect values are changing constantly. We've seen it with Moncada, Giolito, Benintendi, Glasnow and all the other "untouchables" in the last calendar year. It's not impossible to imagine holding onto Q for 2019/20 if we're just not getting a "fair" value in return...not to mention we'll theoretically have Rodon to trade as well, although what the values of each are entering next off-season, it's obviously quite hard to predict. Maybe another team will bowl us over with a Shelby Miller-like deal after falling in love with Rodon's stuff. Wouldn't be any more surprising than it taking this long to get the best return for Quintana. Edited January 10, 2017 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 9, 2017 -> 11:19 PM) The same reason Cubs and Indians paid up. Pressure on GMs. Pressure on GMs who may not be around when some prospect hits the bigs in a year or two. Absolutely. And i understand the point that there will be pitchers available next offseason but i don't agree that diminishes his value. I don't think you can cavalierly say "it's just money" when it's $100M+. Just look at the new tax. Just look at the 20 or so teams who can't pay that anyway. We'll be seeing $35-$40M AAVs in the next few years which makes him more valuable. Sox are licking their chops if they have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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