Sox holding talks "daily" on Q

[Dick Allen]

I still think all of this is just talk. He's gone before pitchers report, and probably before Soxfest.

They definitely don't want the 2017 season to be all about "when will Q get traded". That is the one huge problem with waiting for the deadline.

[Thad Bosley]

With the extra year of control, does that make the expectation on the return for Q equivalent to that of Sale, or in excess of it? Or does it not matter, and we should expect something slightly less? Can't quite gauge what this outcome ought to be, when all is said and done.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Thad Bosley

[SoxAce]

30 power is 3 to 5 homers a year. His 60 hit tool supposedly translates to .280. You are pretty much describing a lesser averaged, less speedy Juan Pierre.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-ex...scouting-scale/

 

You acknowledging my last sentence on your previous post two pages ago was enough that we were in agreement. Why egg on? (especially when 2B isn't a premier power position anyway) Hell, Eaton's high in homers in the minors was 7 before he came to our park.

Edited January 10, 2017 by SoxAce

[Dick Allen]

With the extra year of control, does that make the expectation on the return for Q equivalent to that of Sale, or in excess of it? Or does it not matter, and we should expect something slightly less? Can't quite gauge what this outcome ought to be.

I think it will come out less in ranking. But not by much.

 

When it's all said and done, it might turn into more.

[southsider2k5]

You acknowledging my last sentence on your previous post two pages ago was enough that we were in agreement. Why egg on? (especially when 2B isn't a premier power position anyway)

 

I am trying to figure out why this guy is rated so highly with those kind of prospect grades. I mean we are talking about a guy who is going to generate an older Juan Pierre's numbers offensively as the best position player in a deal, and that excites people? What am I missing here?

[steveno89]

30 power is 3 to 5 homers a year. His 60 hit tool supposedly translates to .280. You are pretty much describing a lesser averaged, less speedy Juan Pierre.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-ex...scouting-scale/

 

He has a 60 hit tool, but also knows how to draw walks to get on base

 

He could be a + .280 hitter with a +.350 OBP with solid speed. No power though. Solid 2 hitter

[pablo]

I am trying to figure out why this guy is rated so highly with those kind of prospect grades. I mean we are talking about a guy who is going to generate an older Juan Pierre's numbers offensively as the best position player in a deal, and that excites people? What am I missing here?

 

I am in agreement with you that I would much much rather Meadows or Bell be included in a deal.

 

But for sake of argument, people have been comparing Newman to Ryan Theriot. Peak Ryan Theriot was a 3 win player in 2008 followed up by 2.2 in 2009. I can't remember how Theriot was on defense, but a 3 win player is rather valuable. If Newman put up 3-3.5 wins per year, I don't think we'd look back on a Glasnow/Newman/Hayes deal as too weak if the second piece was putting up that WAR.

[Chicago White Sox]

I am trying to figure out why this guy is rated so highly with those kind of prospect grades. I mean we are talking about a guy who is going to generate an older Juan Pierre's numbers offensively as the best position player in a deal, and that excites people? What am I missing here?

Probably the huge difference in walk rates.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I am trying to figure out why this guy is rated so highly with those kind of prospect grades. I mean we are talking about a guy who is going to generate an older Juan Pierre's numbers offensively as the best position player in a deal, and that excites people? What am I missing here?

 

 

He's going to have high .OBP as well. This part is being ignored.

[Con te Giolito]

I am trying to figure out why this guy is rated so highly with those kind of prospect grades. I mean we are talking about a guy who is going to generate an older Juan Pierre's numbers offensively as the best position player in a deal, and that excites people? What am I missing here?

He's a decent defender. His ceiling is probably, as I said, infielder Adam Eaton while his floor is something around Tyler Saladino. Can really never have too many of those guys, in a deal with Pittsburgh that includes him and the two top pitchers the idea is probably to just acquire as much talent as humanly possible and if the fourth piece is up to snuff I'm OK with it, though not enthusiastic.

 

The team to really start considering may be the Braves. Any pitching the Sox acquire from here on would preferably be left handed, which Atlanta is swimming in, and they do have an interesting stable of position players. I dont think you get both Acuna and Albies, but one surely seems possible. Austin Riley has had some ups and downs but he's young and clearly talented. How wiling they are to deal Albies is really the question, and even if they are the rest of the deal has to be right also. Where is that Braves fan from earlier?

[Buehrlesque]

I am really hoping they sign Trumbo as this will signal they are all in and hopefully willing to deal for Q/Jones or Robertson. Trumbo at first moves Desmonnd to the OF and then Dahl has nowhere to go but AAA. A trade of Cargo and Blackmon is unlikely (see Cutch situation - older vets, not much contract left) and also because you can't sign Trumbo, Desmond and then move your two best hitters. It would send a weird message to the fans.

 

Rockies then swoop in and offer Dahl, Hoffman ++ for Q/Jones.

If that ++ includes Rodgers, that remains my dream best-case scenario. Even swapping out Hoffman for Rodgers. Any two of them would blow the other offers for Q alone out of the water. Add a high value piece like Jones (or possibly Robertson), and there's potential for more, even all three of Dahl, Rodgers and Hoffman. There's definitely a match in there somewhere. Too bad the Rockies don't seem interested in the least.

 

I am in agreement with you that I would much much rather Meadows or Bell be included in a deal.

 

But for sake of argument, people have been comparing Newman to Ryan Theriot. Peak Ryan Theriot was a 3 win player in 2008 followed up by 2.2 in 2009. I can't remember how Theriot was on defense, but a 3 win player is rather valuable. If Newman put up 3-3.5 wins per year, I don't think we'd look back on a Glasnow/Newman/Hayes deal as too weak if the second piece was putting up that WAR.

On the flip side, Glasnow/Newman/Hayes would be pretty weak.

[Jake]

I think Newman is a nice prospect and would be great as a third piece, not ungodly bad as a second piece but puts pressure on both the first and third pieces to be good. I am concerned about the power but he did 5 HR in 101 games last year across two levels, already above SS2K5's nightmare scenario 3-5 HR/year rate. The ISO is at the absolute lowest acceptable level so far, but it's worth keeping in mind his strengths as well. He batted over .300 and walked more than he struck out. Sure he may not be likely to win any MVP awards but you can see he has a set of tools that make him unlikely to be bad, too. An .800-type OPS is fully within the realm of possibility and that would be excellent for a middle infielder, and good anywhere else.

 

I'm unsure what to think of his D from what I read about him and the lack of speed is interesting in that as SS2K5 says, we're not talking about a toolsy player. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the power part of his game develop a little bit if we/the Pirates let him stay at AA this year. It can be hard to increase your power production when you get promoted every 50 games.

[southsider2k5]

He's going to have high .OBP as well. This part is being ignored.

 

Are pitchers in MLB going to walk a guy with no power that often? Or is the incentive going to be to go after him more because you know that odds are really high that he can't hurt you?

 

I guess I am asking if guys with no power but high walk rates see their walk rates translate to MLB?

[NCsoxfan]

Some blurbs from an Insider article today on the best time to trade Q:

 

Best time to trade him for maximum value: At the trade deadline on July 31.

 

"...However, because they haven’t been able to make a deal at this point, and haven’t had an offer that’s close to their asking price, they might be better off waiting to trade Quintana at the July trade deadline, when there would be more of a sense of urgency and competition from contending teams to land him"

 

"...You only have to look at the returns for pitchers such as David Price, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller over the past two trade deadlines to understand that’s when your best offers in trades normally come in."

 

"...The White Sox should expect to receive a package somewhere between what they got from the Boston Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade and their return from the Washington Nationals in the Adam Eaton deal."

 

They then go on to give some sample trades they think would make sense from the Astros, Pirates, and Yankees

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/the-gms-office/in...r/post?id=13713

Edited January 10, 2017 by NCsoxfan

[Thad Bosley]

I love this article from the New York Daily News, where Cashman was very candid with his thoughts about the negotiations with the Sox. In this article he states:

 

- Sox are where the Yanks were last summer in terms of "pressing the reset button"

- The Yankees set the bar high then in terms of expectations on trade returns for prized assets

- Their results for the trades of Chapman and Miller ultimately led to the returns the Sox received for Sale/Eaton

- He's willing to put high-end prospects on the table to get a deal done, but ironically, his trades from last summer and the Sox' current trades have established a new

sticker price that the team who created this new market value in the first place is now not in a position to meet

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball...ticle-1.2941444

[steveno89]

Are pitchers in MLB going to walk a guy with no power that often? Or is the incentive going to be to go after him more because you know that odds are really high that he can't hurt you?

 

I guess I am asking if guys with no power but high walk rates see their walk rates translate to MLB?

 

Exactly

 

MLB pitchers will be more aggressive with him because he is not a power threat. He still will post solid ratio's of BB/K

 

Newman won't headline any Quintana deal. He would be a third piece

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Mike, Keller is a top 50 guy in some publications and will be when new lists are updated. That's too much IMO. How is a ML ready catcher the same as a fireballing reliever in A ball?

Okay. Then take Diaz out or include someone like Jennings who is cost effective.

 

All I know is that I really want Meadows, and Newman/Keller wouldn't be bad either.

[steveno89]

I love this article from the New York Daily News, where Cashman was very candid with his thoughts about the negotiations with the Sox. In this article he states:

 

- Sox are where the Yanks were last summer in terms of "pressing the reset button"

- The Yankees set the bar high then in terms of expectations on trade returns for prized assets

- Their results for the trades of Chapman and Miller ultimately led to the returns the Sox received for Sale/Eaton

- He's willing to put high-end prospects on the table to get a deal done, but ironically, his trades from last summer and the Sox' current trades have established a new

sticker price that the team who created this new market value in the first place is now not in a position to meet

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball...ticle-1.2941444

 

That makes sense

 

The Yankees don't want to fork Torres and Frazier over after just acquiring them not long ago

 

Sox asking price is reportedly "Three elite prospects" which I read as three top #50 prospects...steep? Yes, but fair for 4 cheap years of Quintana

 

Musgrove, Martes and Tucker deal reflects that (Musgrove was #42 prior to getting called up)

Edited January 10, 2017 by steveno89

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I think I was able to correct it to look more fair.

Meadows, Keller, Hayes, and Diaz as a package deal isn't too bad IMO. Nice idea my friend.

[Con te Giolito]

Newman may not feel like an adequate headliner now, but Quintana has so much as a bad month and you'll be begging for him at the deadline.

[steveno89]

Newman may not feel like an adequate headliner now, but Quintana has so much as a bad month and you'll be begging for him at the deadline.

 

I'm not all that worried, Quintana has shown to be a very consistent quality starter for years now. He is not a fluke after 4+ quality years in a row

[Buehrlesque]

Newman may not feel like an adequate headliner now, but Quintana has so much as a bad month and you'll be begging for him at the deadline.

Could just as easily flip it from the Pirates perspective and say, "Meadows may feel like an overpay now, but he has so much as a bad month or another injury in AAA/Quintana has another great few months/more teams come into the bidding/our SPs struggle and you'll be begging the Sox to accept him at the deadline."

[bmags]

Exactly

 

MLB pitchers will be more aggressive with him because he is not a power threat. He still will post solid ratio's of BB/K

 

Newman won't headline any Quintana deal. He would be a third piece

 

So they'll throw him more stuff in the strike zone where his 60 hit tool can make solid contact? Sounds good.

[hi8is]

They then go on to give some sample trades they think would make sense from the Astros, Pirates, and Yankees

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/the-gms-office/in...r/post?id=13713

For us without insider access -- could you paste the sample trades here, por favor?

[illinilaw08]

Some blurbs from an Insider article today on the best time to trade Q:

 

Best time to trade him for maximum value: At the trade deadline on July 31.

 

"...However, because they haven’t been able to make a deal at this point, and haven’t had an offer that’s close to their asking price, they might be better off waiting to trade Quintana at the July trade deadline, when there would be more of a sense of urgency and competition from contending teams to land him"

 

"...You only have to look at the returns for pitchers such as David Price, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller over the past two trade deadlines to understand that’s when your best offers in trades normally come in."

 

"...The White Sox should expect to receive a package somewhere between what they got from the Boston Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade and their return from the Washington Nationals in the Adam Eaton deal."

 

They then go on to give some sample trades they think would make sense from the Astros, Pirates, and Yankees

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/the-gms-office/in...r/post?id=13713

 

Here's the risk:

 

(1) There are a finite number of teams with the headliners and depth of prospects necessary to get a deal done for Q;

 

(2) Buyers at the deadline, generally speaking, are bolstering their team for that particular stretch run. So if the Astros or the Pirates have a bad first half, they probably wait for the next year's FA market to bolster rotations.

 

(3) We take Q's consistency as a given. But if he falls off - even in the slightest - that could lead to a substantial reduction in Q's value. Q's value is based on his uncanny ability to be consistently very, very good. There's less of a market for that than there is for the front end starter with pure stuff.

 

(4) Right now, if a team wants a frontline starter, they have to go to the Sox for Q or the Rays for Archer (whose price tag is astronomical). At the deadline, there's a good chance that the supply on the market increases, thereby potentially reducing the return for Q.

 

Bottom line - the Sox need to maximize the return on Q, and I tend to think they are doing the right thing at the moment, holding out for Meadows. But there's risk leaving a package of (for example) Glasnow/Keller/Newman/Diaz on the table because you want the headliner to be Meadows.