Sox holding talks "daily" on Q

[Bob Sacamano]

So they'll throw him more stuff in the strike zone where his 60 hit tool can make solid contact? Sounds good.

 

Was gonna say this. More pitches in the zone where he can get some base hits? Sure.

[Con te Giolito]

Could just as easily flip it from the Pirates perspective and say, "Meadows may feel like an overpay now, but he has so much as a bad month or another injury in AAA/Quintana has another great few months/more teams come into the bidding/our SPs struggle and you'll be begging the Sox to accept him at the deadline."

Right, there's risk in waiting for the Pirates as well. Even if everything stays pretty much the same and the Pirates wait until July 31 to ultimately include Meadows they just let Jose Quintana keep being Jose Quintana for 130 innings on the last-place White Sox while they could've had him pitching in Pittsburgh and gotten all that value all along.

 

Also, I know nobody wants to think this way yet, but if the White Sox dont trade Jose Quintana because nobody offered them a stronger return than they got for Sale the thought of this "rebuild" being nothing more than a cleaning out of last springs troublemakers will be hard to deny.

[steveno89]

Here's the risk:

 

(1) There are a finite number of teams with the headliners and depth of prospects necessary to get a deal done for Q;

 

(2) Buyers at the deadline, generally speaking, are bolstering their team for that particular stretch run. So if the Astros or the Pirates have a bad first half, they probably wait for the next year's FA market to bolster rotations.

 

(3) We take Q's consistency as a given. But if he falls off - even in the slightest - that could lead to a substantial reduction in Q's value. Q's value is based on his uncanny ability to be consistently very, very good. There's less of a market for that than there is for the front end starter with pure stuff.

 

(4) Right now, if a team wants a frontline starter, they have to go to the Sox for Q or the Rays for Archer (whose price tag is astronomical). At the deadline, there's a good chance that the supply on the market increases, thereby potentially reducing the return for Q.

 

Bottom line - the Sox need to maximize the return on Q, and I tend to think they are doing the right thing at the moment, holding out for Meadows. But there's risk leaving a package of (for example) Glasnow/Keller/Newman/Diaz on the table because you want the headliner to be Meadows.

 

I don't think the Sox are necessarily "dead set" on a particular prospect, but rather how the entire package looks

 

They clearly want at least three premium prospects in return, or 2 premium, 2 very good

 

Meaning:

 

Houston: Martes and Tucker are givens as headliners, but more along the lines of Whitley/Reed/Perez/Fisher/Laureno/Stubbs need to be included

 

Pittsburgh: No Meadows is ok, No Bell is ok...but the cost goes up without those guys big time

 

Glasnow + Keller + Newman + Hayes/Diaz

Edited January 10, 2017 by steveno89

[illinilaw08]

So they'll throw him more stuff in the strike zone where his 60 hit tool can make solid contact? Sounds good.

 

I think the question with Keller is whether he has the hit tool to hit 30+ doubles. He doesn't need to hit 10 homeruns if he hits line drives all over the place.

[NCsoxfan]

Newman may not feel like an adequate headliner now, but Quintana has so much as a bad month and you'll be begging for him at the deadline.

 

Gahhhh, am I glad you're not running the negotiations. This kind of mentality of fear is how you capitulate and trade him for an underwhelming package. You don't know how Q will pitch, you don't know how Newman will play (or Glasnow, or Meadows or anyone else). None of us do. But, this mentality of "it can only get worse from here" is pure BS. If you trade for the prospects now, you're taking a risk as well. The trade deadline could yield a buyer who isn't in the bidding process today (maybe a starter gets injured), for prospects who maybe we aren't even talking about today.

[steveno89]

I think the question with Keller is whether he has the hit tool to hit 30+ doubles. He doesn't need to hit 10 homeruns if he hits line drives all over the place.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospect...hp?reportid=358

 

That is a really good in depth scouting report mid season 2016 on Newman

 

He can flat out hit

 

The rest of his tools are average

 

He looks like he can be a solid, average regular overall. Our system could use a prospect like Newman. Worst case looks like he could be a good utility player, best case an above average middle infielder

Edited January 10, 2017 by steveno89

[ChiSox59]

Gahhhh, am I glad you're not running the negotiations. This kind of mentality of fear is how you capitulate and trade him for an underwhelming package. You don't know how Q will pitch, you don't know how Newman will play (or Glasnow, or Meadows or anyone else). None of us do. But, this mentality of "it can only get worse from here" is pure BS. If you trade for the prospects now, you're taking a risk as well. The trade deadline could yield a buyer who isn't in the bidding process today (maybe a starter gets injured), for prospects who maybe we aren't even talking about today.

 

Preach, brother. Accepting a best offer trade right now that isn't on par with what the Sox want because RH panicked is the worst case scenario here.

[Con te Giolito]

Gahhhh, am I glad you're not running the negotiations. This kind of mentality of fear is how you capitulate and trade him for an underwhelming package. You don't know how Q will pitch, you don't know how Newman will play (or Glasnow, or Meadows or anyone else). None of us do. But, this mentality of "it can only get worse from here" is pure BS. If you trade for the prospects now, you're taking a risk as well. The trade deadline could yield a buyer who isn't in the bidding process today (maybe a starter gets injured), for prospects who maybe we aren't even talking about today.

It will also introduce sellers who aren't selling today. Unless someone wants to sell the farm for an inferior pitcher in Archer the only real way to upgrade a rotation right now is Quintana. That dynamic wont exist in 7 months. And whether anyone likes to admit it or not Q's value probably begins to decline pretty soon. Even if he keeps doing exactly what he has been for the past 4 years, he will keep getting older and the years remaining on that contract keep getting fewer. So it would take a Cy Young level season for his value to really go up, and while that's possible I just dont find it likely. Q's thing is consistency and while consistency means he never sinks too low, it also means he probably wont fly too high.

 

Sox shouldn't be admitting any of this and instead let the warring parties big against each other rather than the White Sox bluff of holding Quintana until the deadline (or later).

[illinilaw08]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospect...hp?reportid=358

 

That is a really good in depth scouting report mid season 2016 on Newman

 

He can flat out hit

 

The rest of his tools are average

 

He looks like he can be a solid, average regular overall. Our system could use a prospect like Newman. Worst case looks like he could be a good utility player, best case an above average middle infielder

 

Thanks. That scouting report does not sound like Juan Pierre...

[Con te Giolito]

Preach, brother. Accepting a best offer trade right now that isn't on par with what the Sox want because RH panicked is the worst case scenario here.

Really? That's the worst case scenario? Worst case scenario for me is he blows his arm out in the WBC and the Sox get nothing.

[steveno89]

Gahhhh, am I glad you're not running the negotiations. This kind of mentality of fear is how you capitulate and trade him for an underwhelming package. You don't know how Q will pitch, you don't know how Newman will play (or Glasnow, or Meadows or anyone else). None of us do. But, this mentality of "it can only get worse from here" is pure BS. If you trade for the prospects now, you're taking a risk as well. The trade deadline could yield a buyer who isn't in the bidding process today (maybe a starter gets injured), for prospects who maybe we aren't even talking about today.

 

Sox are far from panicking

 

They hold all the leverage in negotiations. Unless they get their price, Quintana stays

[steveno89]

Really? That's the worst case scenario? Worst case scenario for me is he blows his arm out in the WBC and the Sox get nothing.

 

The risk of that is not enough reason for me to settle for a lesser package and panic deal Quintana this offseason

 

Sox might have to show the resolve to hold him unless they get their price in order to eventually get the haul they want

[ChiSox59]

Really? That's the worst case scenario? Worst case scenario for me is he blows his arm out in the WBC and the Sox get nothing.

 

The dude is controlled for 4 years. Relax.

 

Sure, he could have a career ending shoulder injury. And so could anybody they're trading for. Hell, a f***in' astroid could hit the US in a few weeks and none of this would matter.

 

Q has shown virtually no reason to worry about injury. Taking a best offer now, when the player has FOUR FULL SEASONS of control is the definition of panicking, and I can assure you RH is not doing that. He has said this will take time on multiple occasions. He gets what he wants, or he holds until he does.

Edited January 10, 2017 by ChiSox59

[Buehrlesque]

Right, there's risk in waiting for the Pirates as well. Even if everything stays pretty much the same and the Pirates wait until July 31 to ultimately include Meadows they just let Jose Quintana keep being Jose Quintana for 130 innings on the last-place White Sox while they could've had him pitching in Pittsburgh and gotten all that value all along.

 

Also, I know nobody wants to think this way yet, but if the White Sox dont trade Jose Quintana because nobody offered them a stronger return than they got for Sale the thought of this "rebuild" being nothing more than a cleaning out of last springs troublemakers will be hard to deny.

Nah, only meatball fans would actually believe this. It implies good trade offers were rejected for guys like Q, Frazier, Melky, Robertson, etc. Whether or not Quintana gets traded now, it's clear this org shift is more than the Drake LaRoche Purge, and that once a good offer is made, they will pounce.

[heirdog]

Gahhhh, am I glad you're not running the negotiations. This kind of mentality of fear is how you capitulate and trade him for an underwhelming package. You don't know how Q will pitch, you don't know how Newman will play (or Glasnow, or Meadows or anyone else). None of us do. But, this mentality of "it can only get worse from here" is pure BS. If you trade for the prospects now, you're taking a risk as well. The trade deadline could yield a buyer who isn't in the bidding process today (maybe a starter gets injured), for prospects who maybe we aren't even talking about today.

 

Completely agree. The buyers for Q only increase at the deadline (barring injury, which is a crapshoot and a risk worth taking w a proven durable Q) as pitt and Hou will still value 3.5 years vs 4, along w other teams such as the yanks, dodgers, cubs and Rockies that are solidifying their top 3 starters for the playoffs. The chance of Q's value dropping is lower with a proven track record vs the chance of young prospects such as Bregman or meadows dropping if they say open the season 1-34 or hit .214 in AAA, respectively. Those teams will be begging us to give them Q for those headliners.

Edited January 10, 2017 by heirdog

[Eminor3rd]

Also, I know nobody wants to think this way yet, but if the White Sox dont trade Jose Quintana because nobody offered them a stronger return than they got for Sale the thought of this "rebuild" being nothing more than a cleaning out of last springs troublemakers will be hard to deny.

 

I see absolutely no evidence of that, whatsoever.

[southsider2k5]

Here's the risk:

 

(1) There are a finite number of teams with the headliners and depth of prospects necessary to get a deal done for Q;

 

(2) Buyers at the deadline, generally speaking, are bolstering their team for that particular stretch run. So if the Astros or the Pirates have a bad first half, they probably wait for the next year's FA market to bolster rotations.

 

(3) We take Q's consistency as a given. But if he falls off - even in the slightest - that could lead to a substantial reduction in Q's value. Q's value is based on his uncanny ability to be consistently very, very good. There's less of a market for that than there is for the front end starter with pure stuff.

 

(4) Right now, if a team wants a frontline starter, they have to go to the Sox for Q or the Rays for Archer (whose price tag is astronomical). At the deadline, there's a good chance that the supply on the market increases, thereby potentially reducing the return for Q.

 

Bottom line - the Sox need to maximize the return on Q, and I tend to think they are doing the right thing at the moment, holding out for Meadows. But there's risk leaving a package of (for example) Glasnow/Keller/Newman/Diaz on the table because you want the headliner to be Meadows.

 

All of those things can be done in reverse too.

 

1. That won't change at the deadline

 

2. Even if those two teams aren't in it, there will be other teams who are. Odds are pretty high that at least one of those teams will need a #1 or #2 starter if they want to win.

 

3. It is a LOT more likely that prospects we get for Q will flop, no matter who those prospects are, or when we get them. The most sure piece of this is Q. I am much more likely to bet on him than I am any other piece of this deal.

 

4. The recent deadlines have been much less teams selling than ever before because of the new wild card system. With those additional teams less and less teams are willing to say they are out of it in July and sell. That is a large reason why deadline deals have become so one sided in many occasions. Demand is outstripping supply.

[southsider2k5]

Really? That's the worst case scenario? Worst case scenario for me is he blows his arm out in the WBC and the Sox get nothing.

 

Worst case scenario is you trade him and the guys who get for him are garbage. Then you have lost the asset and you got nothing for it. Even if he has an injury, you control him for four years at super cheap rate. If he is out a year, he still has three years of value left.

[southsider2k5]

Right, there's risk in waiting for the Pirates as well. Even if everything stays pretty much the same and the Pirates wait until July 31 to ultimately include Meadows they just let Jose Quintana keep being Jose Quintana for 130 innings on the last-place White Sox while they could've had him pitching in Pittsburgh and gotten all that value all along.

 

Also, I know nobody wants to think this way yet, but if the White Sox dont trade Jose Quintana because nobody offered them a stronger return than they got for Sale the thought of this "rebuild" being nothing more than a cleaning out of last springs troublemakers will be hard to deny.

 

Only if you have your head buried in the sand. They have been trying to trade everything in sight. Who is gone already is just who had the best markets, not who they didn't like most.

[heirdog]

Only if you have your head buried in the sand. They have been trying to trade everything in sight. Who is gone already is just who had the best markets, not who they didn't like most.

 

The only part of the "Drake Purge" I believe is that when KW blocked the rebuild mid-season, he told Hahn that he could begin shopping Sale, Eaton and ship off Duke because its Kenny and he's emotional. Hahn is more pragmatic and methodical and didn't like this half baked approach but said "hell, I want to rebuild and this will be a part of it any way" so he started with those 3 in earnest last summer. With that ground work laid, hahn was able to ship off Duke for something in Tilson and completed deals for Sale and Eaton first.

 

Luckily for us, Hahn won out this off season w Reinsdorf and could rebuild fully and thus all the names are now on the block. It's just that Hahn didn't have the 5 month head start on any of the other players' "values" as he did with sale and Eaton. So it's taking some time but Hahn has set what he deems the white Sox value is for each and the market will speak over the next few months.

[steveno89]

Only if you have your head buried in the sand. They have been trying to trade everything in sight. Who is gone already is just who had the best markets, not who they didn't like most.

 

It takes two or more to tango in a trade

 

You need suitors to be willing to part with the necessary pieces to get a deal done, which can take a ton of time. The Sale deal happened after a year of talks.

[NCsoxfan]

Sox are far from panicking

 

They hold all the leverage in negotiations. Unless they get their price, Quintana stays

 

I'm saying that in response to the below message, not what I think the Sox are doing:

 

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 03:09 PM) *

Newman may not feel like an adequate headliner now, but Quintana has so much as a bad month and you'll be begging for him at the deadline.

 

That to me sounds like a panic, if you were to move forward and trade for him out of fear.

[ptatc]

I love this article from the New York Daily News, where Cashman was very candid with his thoughts about the negotiations with the Sox. In this article he states:

 

- Sox are where the Yanks were last summer in terms of "pressing the reset button"

- The Yankees set the bar high then in terms of expectations on trade returns for prized assets

- Their results for the trades of Chapman and Miller ultimately led to the returns the Sox received for Sale/Eaton

- He's willing to put high-end prospects on the table to get a deal done, but ironically, his trades from last summer and the Sox' current trades have established a new

sticker price that the team who created this new market value in the first place is now not in a position to meet

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball...ticle-1.2941444

No ego there.

 

It also could have something to do with starting pitching more important than a relief pitcher.

[steveno89]

I'm saying that in response to the below message, not what I think the Sox are doing:

 

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 03:09 PM) *

Newman may not feel like an adequate headliner now, but Quintana has so much as a bad month and you'll be begging for him at the deadline.

 

That to me sounds like a panic, if you were to move forward and trade for him out of fear.

 

The more I dig into it, the more I'm souring on Newman. While I'd love to have him as a utility player in our system, his ceiling is really as an average regular.

 

Not taking anything away from what tools he offers, but I'd much rather trade for players with higher upside. His value is really tied with his ability to stick at shortstop, and I don't see him being able to beat out Anderson defensively. Anderson is a better athlete with more speed and arm strength. If Newman has to move to second base the lack of power becomes even more apparent.

 

Tucker's ceiling is also that of an average mlb right fielder, and the power is purely projection at this point, not reality. The bat might play, but the power will be a necessity, not a luxury once he is forced to right field.

 

The true "blue chip" prospects we are and should be targeting are guys like Glasnow, Torres, Meadows, Martes, Frazier who have considerable upside

 

 

[kwill]

I get the feeling if he is not traded by Soxfest we are going to camp with him. I am perfectly alright with that. It seems many don't believe in Quintana for whatever reason. I see him as a modern day Cliff Lee. He control the strike zone with great fastball location and has two good secondary pitches.

 

I think if the Sox liked Frances Martes the deal would be done. Fact is many around the industry are not sold on him. If the Astros refuse to trade Bregman than you really don't have a front line piece Houston can give you.

Edited January 10, 2017 by kwill