Buehrlesque Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:00 PM) We don't need to settle for less than at least three top prospects in exchange for Quintana. Make other clubs up their offers, we shouldn't be compromising much at all I guess it depends on your definition of "top," but something like Frazier/Rutherford/Andujar/Tate would get my OK, and would be better than any of the Astros or Pirates current rumored offerings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 03:58 PM) Scary thing? Polanco will still be under contract when Vlad Jr is 24-25. He's signed for that long? Edit: Holy s***, just checked. Why did he do that to himself lol I mean, it's good to take the guaranteed money but he will be a free agent after his age 31 season. Second edit: they bought out 3 years of free agency for him. Good for them. Edited January 12, 2017 by soxfan2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:11 PM) He's signed for that long? Edit: Holy s***, just checked. Why did he do that to himself lol I mean, it's good to take the guaranteed money but he will be a free agent after his age 31 season. Yes sir. 2017 is the first year of the 5/35M extension he signed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 QUOTE (shipps @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:02 PM) Hahn has said may times since trading Sale that he wants the market to come to him. He isn't going to these other teams all thirsty to make his next trade. He will make the big trade when there is a team banging down his door with elite packages of prospect gold. Until then, we wait. This is because he really doesn't need to trade him. He will still be under a team friendly contract when this team is good again, if the plan works. None of these primary players are more than 2 years away. RH/KW traded away the most valuable (and troublesome) pieces to rebuild quickly with near MLB talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 (edited) QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:14 PM) Yes sir. 2017 is the first year of the 5/35M extension he signed. Starling Marte contract is also great. Edit: you sure you didn't mean 7? He's signed for 7 more years. Edited January 12, 2017 by soxfan2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveno89 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 QUOTE (shipps @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:02 PM) Hahn has said may times since trading Sale that he wants the market to come to him. He isnt going to these other teams all thirsty to make his next trade. He will make the big trade when there is a team banging down his door with elite packages of prospect gold. Until then, we wait. Hahn is correct in his approach. Unless overwhelmed we should keep Quintana. The price is three top prospects, otherwise no deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:15 PM) Starling Marte contract is also great. Edit: you sure you didn't mean 7? He's signed for 7 more years. My bad, I didn't include the two option years at the end of the five year deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRL Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:02 PM) Yeah if he's here past the trade deadline, factoring in next year's free agent market on pitching, I feel like there's a chance we may not see better offers than we are receiving now. Edit: I guess he would still make sense as an option for the current teams still in on him like the Astros and Pirates. But offers would possibly be the same at best. This is a notion I've been hearing a throughout all the Quintana trade talks and it needs to be put to rest. It's not that it doesn't have some degree of truth to them, but is just one among many considerations. The general sentiment I'm talking about goes something like: "Quintana needs to be traded before the season, because if Sox wait his value goes down because either/some combination of a) there will be too many good pitchers who are going to be free agents next year, so teams can just sign those guys or trade for one of them at the deadline; b) if Sox are not getting the offers they like now for 4 years of Quintana, how can they expect to get better value for 3.5 years of Quintana at the deadline or 3 after next season etc...?; c) If you hold, you risk Quintana getting hurt and losing all value". It is foolish to believe that any of these are more than a consideration, or that they are the overwhelming consideration in why Quintana needs to be traded now, as opposed to the deadline because: a) who are all these pitchers that will be available at the deadline? Remember, that presumably to want to trade a pitcher at the deadline, the team would have to be non-contending. With the 2nd wildcard, a majority of the teams have been buyers or at least not sellers at the deadline over the past few seasons. The best pitchers in the 2017-18 free agent class are Arietta (not getting traded, Cubs will certainly be in playoff contention), Yu Darvish (same as Arietta) Johnny Cueto (no way, Giants are far enough from playoff race to be sellers, and good chance Cueto doesn't exercise his opt-out if he's not sure that he'll get > 4 years, 84 mil as a free agent, so Giants unlikely to treat him as a "pending free agent"), Tanaka (same exact thing as I wrote about Cueto, can be said about Tanaka and Yanks), John Lackey (see Arietta), Danny Duffy (it's feasible Royals sell, but more likely than not they don't). Then you start going down a caliber to guys like Lance Lynn, Marco Estrada, Ian Kennedy and Chris Tillman (all on contenders). So who is this big trade market for pitchers that will be seen by team's as a viable alternative to a pitcher of Quintana's quality? Hellickson, Clay Buchholz, Alex Cobb, Wei Yen Chen, Cashner. Not exactly a scary list. Sure, team's may bank on signing an Arrietta, Darvish or one of the other guys I listed as unlikely to be traded at the deadline in the offseason, so maybe the value of Quintana being under control for 4 years goes down, but 3 years of those guys will cost more than double the $ Quintana does and they will not help those teams who are looking to trade precisely because they find themselves in a playoff race for that year, which is of tremendous value alone. Yes, the 2018-2019 free agent class is fantastic, but to trade one of those guys at the 2017 deadline, a team would have to believe they are out of contention for not only 2017, but also for 2018. That narrows the list of teams even further. The Dodgers are not trading Kershaw. b) There are lots of other factors that go in to what a player will receive in a trade as opposed to just calculating value based on a number of years left. There are a number of factors that can lead to a suitable package being available at a later date even though it is not today. Not counting Sale, the 2 pitchers of similar performance level, age/point in their career, and years remaining on their contract who were traded in recent memory were Greinke and Cole Hamels. It took their teams a long while after their rebuilds began to deal those guys too. Why did they wait? One thing is, that even if Quintana is worth what the Sox are asking, you have to find a team who, not only has the quality and depth of farm system to make that trade, but also who can afford to give it up. For example, the Pirates have a deep enough farm system to afford Quintana and not have their farm system decimated, but the Pirates need to have, not only a good farm system but an elite one if they want to contend. If they Red Sox or Nationals who traded for Sale/Eaton (no coincidence that it was 2 big spending teams that made those deals) aren't turning out quite as many prospects from their farm as they once thought they'd be in 3-4 years, they can compensate for that by going out and getting that talent through free agency. Pirates, not so much. I might know a Ferrari is worth 250k, but it will still gut my resources I need for other things to buy one. In a limited market with only 29 "buyers", that situation can be the case for an overwhelming number of teams, or even all of them. I obviously don't know what team's front offices are thinking (nobody outside the front offices does), but it could very realistically be that teams do feel that 4 years of Quintana for way under market $ is worth what Sox are asking in the abstract, or something close to it, but they can't afford to pay it, so their current offers are only for what they believe 3-3.5 years of Quintana are worth. If the Sox believe that to be the case, it makes sense to hold out on trading Quintana at least until the deadline. Situations change all the time. A team like the Dodgers, for example, who have the prospects and can afford to deal them for Quintana, but have commitments of significant $ to > 5 starting pitchers, all of whom are injury prone, suddenly has a need due to injury; A team who didn't think they could afford it, has some other prospects who are developing better than they expected in 2017 and now can all of a sudden give up the prospects who it previously didn't make sense for them to; In the heat of a playoff race due to fan-base pressure (in the Ferrari analogy, this would be like finding out that a really hot girl will totally sleep with you if you had a Ferrari), or gaining more confidence than they have currently, due to their place in the standings at the deadline, that they can make a playoff/World Serie than they had at the beginning of the season, a front office can feel that it is worth it to pay the Sox asking price even though they don't right now. Worst case scenario, if this is the case, the teams that were only willing to pay what they believed 3-3.5 years of Quintana to be worth for 4 years of Quintana will still be willing to pay the same for 3-3.5 years of Quintana. c) Yes, Quintana might get injured. As any player might. You can't look at it that way, especially with a pitcher who has been particularly durable like Quintana, or a rebuilding team can never gain leverage in trade negotiations. In addition, Quintana and all Sox players are much less likely to get injured than players on any other team, as the White Sox do a fantastic job of keeping their players healthy. In fact, for what seems like forever now, the Sox have consistently kept their players healthy at a far better than the next best teams in the majors. The degree to which the Sox are the best in baseball at this, and the length of time over which this has been the case, are such that it cannot possibly be a coincidence, but has to be a trend, and they are just actually better at it than everyone else. http://www.hardballtimes.com/2015-disabled...-a-little-more/http://www.hardballtimes.com/2015-disabled...-a-little-more/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 (edited) QUOTE (JRL @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:46 PM) a) who are all these pitchers that will be available at the deadline? To be fair, I never said there would be a lot of guys available at the deadline and never suggested they'd get less trading him then than now. Sucks you typed all that thinking I did. I said "if they don't trade him by the trade deadline." Edited January 12, 2017 by soxfan2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shipps Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 damn social media has ruined my capacity to read anything other than a paragraph long. I just cant read all them words, unless its for school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:14 PM) This is because he really doesn't need to trade him. He will still be under a team friendly contract when this team is good again, if the plan works. None of these primary players are more than 2 years away. RH/KW traded away the most valuable (and troublesome) pieces to rebuild quickly with near MLB talent. Gotta disagree here. Wasting 2 or 3 years of Quintana's value in hopes he can anchor a competitive team for one or two years (best case scenario) makes no sense IMO. His production over the next two years is 100% useless to us, but it's obviously very valuable to other clubs planning to compete. There is a huge opportunity cost to holding him that you're not acknowledging. We can trade him for a group of prospects that fit much better into our competitive window. That makes much more sense than trying to get one or two years out of Quintana while the team is actually good and then losing him for nothing. Also, we only have a handful of bats in the system that we can project as above average major league regulars. It's going to be difficult to find the talent needed to fill those holes without dealing Quintana. He's the one guy we have left that can potentially bring in an elite positional prospect in addition to a couple quality secondary pieces. We still have a long ways to go in our rebuild before we should feel even the least bit optimistic that we can be competive by 2019 or 2020. I strong Quintana return with multiple near major league pieces would go a long way towards that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:54 PM) Gotta disagree here. Wasting 2 or 3 years of Quintana's value in hopes he can anchor a competitive team for one or two years (best case scenario) makes no sense IMO. His production over the next two years is 100% useless to us, but it's obviously very valuable to other clubs planning to compete. There is a huge opportunity cost to holding him that you're not acknowledging. We can trade him for a group of prospects that fit much better into our competitive window. That makes much more sense than trying to get one or two years out of Quintana while the team is actually good and then losing him for nothing. Also, we only have a handful of bats in the system that we can project as above average major league regulars. It's going to be difficult to find the talent needed to fill those holes without dealing Quintana. He's the one guy we have left that can potentially bring in an elite positional prospect in addition to a couple quality secondary pieces. We still have a long ways to go in our rebuild before we should feel even the least bit optimistic that we can be competive by 2019 or 2020. I strong Quintana return with multiple near major league pieces would go a long way towards that. But the sox aren't wasting his value if they don't get the appropriate value in return. This is where the difference lies. At what point do the Sox decrease their demands that he is more valuable than the return. They will not "waste" value if thety don't get value in return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveno89 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 QUOTE (JRL @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:46 PM) This is a notion I've been hearing a throughout all the Quintana trade talks and it needs to be put to rest. It's not that it doesn't have some degree of truth to them, but is just one among many considerations. The general sentiment I'm talking about goes something like: "Quintana needs to be traded before the season, because if Sox wait his value goes down because either/some combination of a) there will be too many good pitchers who are going to be free agents next year, so teams can just sign those guys or trade for one of them at the deadline; b) if Sox are not getting the offers they like now for 4 years of Quintana, how can they expect to get better value for 3.5 years of Quintana at the deadline or 3 after next season etc...?; c) If you hold, you risk Quintana getting hurt and losing all value". It is foolish to believe that any of these are more than a consideration, or that they are the overwhelming consideration in why Quintana needs to be traded now, as opposed to the deadline because: a) who are all these pitchers that will be available at the deadline? Remember, that presumably to want to trade a pitcher at the deadline, the team would have to be non-contending. With the 2nd wildcard, a majority of the teams have been buyers or at least not sellers at the deadline over the past few seasons. The best pitchers in the 2017-18 free agent class are Arietta (not getting traded, Cubs will certainly be in playoff contention), Yu Darvish (same as Arietta) Johnny Cueto (no way, Giants are far enough from playoff race to be sellers, and good chance Cueto doesn't exercise his opt-out if he's not sure that he'll get > 4 years, 84 mil as a free agent, so Giants unlikely to treat him as a "pending free agent"), Tanaka (same exact thing as I wrote about Cueto, can be said about Tanaka and Yanks), John Lackey (see Arietta), Danny Duffy (it's feasible Royals sell, but more likely than not they don't). Then you start going down a caliber to guys like Lance Lynn, Marco Estrada, Ian Kennedy and Chris Tillman (all on contenders). So who is this big trade market for pitchers that will be seen by team's as a viable alternative to a pitcher of Quintana's quality? Hellickson, Clay Buchholz, Alex Cobb, Wei Yen Chen, Cashner. Not exactly a scary list. Sure, team's may bank on signing an Arrietta, Darvish or one of the other guys I listed as unlikely to be traded at the deadline in the offseason, so maybe the value of Quintana being under control for 4 years goes down, but 3 years of those guys will cost more than double the $ Quintana does and they will not help those teams who are looking to trade precisely because they find themselves in a playoff race for that year, which is of tremendous value alone. Yes, the 2018-2019 free agent class is fantastic, but to trade one of those guys at the 2017 deadline, a team would have to believe they are out of contention for not only 2017, but also for 2018. That narrows the list of teams even further. The Dodgers are not trading Kershaw. b) There are lots of other factors that go in to what a player will receive in a trade as opposed to just calculating value based on a number of years left. There are a number of factors that can lead to a suitable package being available at a later date even though it is not today. Not counting Sale, the 2 pitchers of similar performance level, age/point in their career, and years remaining on their contract who were traded in recent memory were Greinke and Cole Hamels. It took their teams a long while after their rebuilds began to deal those guys too. Why did they wait? One thing is, that even if Quintana is worth what the Sox are asking, you have to find a team who, not only has the quality and depth of farm system to make that trade, but also who can afford to give it up. For example, the Pirates have a deep enough farm system to afford Quintana and not have their farm system decimated, but the Pirates need to have, not only a good farm system but an elite one if they want to contend. If they Red Sox or Nationals who traded for Sale/Eaton (no coincidence that it was 2 big spending teams that made those deals) aren't turning out quite as many prospects from their farm as they once thought they'd be in 3-4 years, they can compensate for that by going out and getting that talent through free agency. Pirates, not so much. I might know a Ferrari is worth 250k, but it will still gut my resources I need for other things to buy one. In a limited market with only 29 "buyers", that situation can be the case for an overwhelming number of teams, or even all of them. I obviously don't know what team's front offices are thinking (nobody outside the front offices does), but it could very realistically be that teams do feel that 4 years of Quintana for way under market $ is worth what Sox are asking in the abstract, or something close to it, but they can't afford to pay it, so their current offers are only for what they believe 3-3.5 years of Quintana are worth. If the Sox believe that to be the case, it makes sense to hold out on trading Quintana at least until the deadline. Situations change all the time. A team like the Dodgers, for example, who have the prospects and can afford to deal them for Quintana, but have commitments of significant $ to > 5 starting pitchers, all of whom are injury prone, suddenly has a need due to injury; A team who didn't think they could afford it, has some other prospects who are developing better than they expected in 2017 and now can all of a sudden give up the prospects who it previously didn't make sense for them to; In the heat of a playoff race due to fan-base pressure (in the Ferrari analogy, this would be like finding out that a really hot girl will totally sleep with you if you had a Ferrari), or gaining more confidence than they have currently, due to their place in the standings at the deadline, that they can make a playoff/World Serie than they had at the beginning of the season, a front office can feel that it is worth it to pay the Sox asking price even though they don't right now. Worst case scenario, if this is the case, the teams that were only willing to pay what they believed 3-3.5 years of Quintana to be worth for 4 years of Quintana will still be willing to pay the same for 3-3.5 years of Quintana. c) Yes, Quintana might get injured. As any player might. You can't look at it that way, especially with a pitcher who has been particularly durable like Quintana, or a rebuilding team can never gain leverage in trade negotiations. In addition, Quintana and all Sox players are much less likely to get injured than players on any other team, as the White Sox do a fantastic job of keeping their players healthy. In fact, for what seems like forever now, the Sox have consistently kept their players healthy at a far better than the next best teams in the majors. The degree to which the Sox are the best in baseball at this, and the length of time over which this has been the case, are such that it cannot possibly be a coincidence, but has to be a trend, and they are just actually better at it than everyone else. http://www.hardballtimes.com/2015-disabled...-a-little-more/http://www.hardballtimes.com/2015-disabled...-a-little-more/ Quality analysis I feel that the white sox have been underwhelmed by what has been offered so far, and do need to be open to keeping him until the trade deadline if necessary. Everyone would prefer to get a deal done this offseason of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRL Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 05:48 PM) To be fair, I never said there would be a lot of guys available at the deadline and never suggested they'd get less trading him then than now. Sucks you typed all that thinking I did. I said "if they don't trade him by the trade deadline." There was clearly a lot in my post that addressed other common sentiments re the need to trade Quintana now, as opposed to holding until the deadline or through the season, in addition to addressing what you did say. Your contention that Quintana's trade market at the deadline or next offseason is significantly effected by "factoring in next year's free agent market on pitching" could have meant only either/both/some combination of 2 possible things: 1. Teams won't trade as much for him at the deadline , because they can trade for other pending free agent pitchers at the deadline; 2. Teams won't trade as much for him at the deadline or next offseason, because they can sign a pitcher who will be a free agent after 2017 during next offseason. It was unclear which you meant, simply addressed why both of those contentions, don't necessarily hurt Quintana's trade value. You also said that only those teams that have currently been reported with rumored interest in him now would be the only teams possibly interested in him throughout the season and beyond, and that the offers received for Quintana at some point during or after the season would only "be the same at best", so I also addressed why additional teams might become interested in Quintana, and why there is a good possibility that offers received around the deadline, and even possibly next offseason, may well be better than what the Sox are being offered currently, or at least more suitable to the Sox. I am not saying that this will 100% be the case, just that it is a possibility. I have no way of knowing that forsure, and quite frankly, thought they have far more info than we do, neither do the Sox. Their job is to use the far better and more plentiful information that they have compared to us, and do the best they can to determine whether it will or won't likely be the case and determine the best path to take re trading or holding Quintana, and until when, based on that conclusion. But, to claim that "at best" the offers on Quintana will be the same down the road, and therefore it is most likely best to trade him now is not sound. It's certainly one possibility, but it's at best an equally likely possibility as them doing better down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 (edited) QUOTE (JRL @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 05:36 PM) There was clearly a lot in my post that addressed other common sentiments re the need to trade Quintana now, as opposed to holding until the deadline or through the season, in addition to addressing what you did say. Your contention that Quintana's trade market at the deadline or next offseason is significantly effected by "factoring in next year's free agent market on pitching" could have meant only either/both/some combination of 2 possible things: 1. Teams won't trade as much for him at the deadline , because they can trade for other pending free agent pitchers at the deadline; 2. Teams won't trade as much for him at the deadline or next offseason, because they can sign a pitcher who will be a free agent after 2017 during next offseason. It was unclear which you meant, simply addressed why both of those contentions, don't necessarily hurt Quintana's trade value. You also said that only those teams that have currently been reported with rumored interest in him now would be the only teams possibly interested in him throughout the season and beyond, and that the offers received for Quintana at some point during or after the season would only "be the same at best", so I also addressed why additional teams might become interested in Quintana, and why there is a good possibility that offers received around the deadline, and even possibly next offseason, may well be better than what the Sox are being offered currently, or at least more suitable to the Sox. I am not saying that this will 100% be the case, just that it is a possibility. I have no way of knowing that forsure, and quite frankly, thought they have far more info than we do, neither do the Sox. Their job is to use the far better and more plentiful information that they have compared to us, and do the best they can to determine whether it will or won't likely be the case and determine the best path to take re trading or holding Quintana, and until when, based on that conclusion. But, to claim that "at best" the offers on Quintana will be the same down the road, and therefore it is most likely best to trade him now is not sound. It's certainly one possibility, but it's at best an equally likely possibility as them doing better down the road. Fyi, I'm not advocating they trade him now just that we might be looking at the best offers now. Hopefully July brings us some surprise contenders if they end up not trading him now. Granted all the teams can't put together a competitive enough offer to trade for him. Ideally, Yankees are playing well going into July. Edited January 12, 2017 by soxfan2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveno89 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 05:43 PM) Fyi, I'm not advocating they trade him now just that we might be looking at the best offers now. Hopefully July brings us some surprise contenders if they end up not trading him now. If the offers were up to par then Quintana would have been traded already I'm guessing right now the offers stand at: Houston: martes, tucker, paulino Pirates: Glasnow, Newman, Diaz/Hayes/Craig Sox aren't biting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 05:52 PM) If the offers were up to par then Quintana would have been traded already I'm guessing right now the offers stand at: Houston: martes, tucker, paulino Pirates: Glasnow, Newman, Diaz/Hayes/Craig Sox aren't biting I get that. I'm not saying otherwise haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 (edited) I'll keep repeating it until he ends up getting traded but the trade deadline wont help. Your not getting major league or close to major league ready talent from those teams. If your fine with players highly rated down the farm system that's fine. But the market will change after the season starts. If your trading Q trade him now or dont at all. Edited January 13, 2017 by Baron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bananarchy Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 05:59 PM) I'll keep repeating it until he ends up getting traded but the trade deadline wont help. Your not getting major league or close to major league ready talent from those teams. If your fine with players highly rated down the farm system that's fine. But the market will change after the season starts. If your trading Q trade him now or dont at all. Elite Prospects >>>> "Major league ready talent" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 QUOTE (Deadpool @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 06:29 PM) Elite Prospects >>>> "Major league ready talent" In some farm systems those arent mutually exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 QUOTE (Deadpool @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 06:29 PM) Elite Prospects >>>> "Major league ready talent" Elite prospects are major league ready at somepoint so in a lot of cases, samr thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Con te Giolito Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 (edited) a) who are all these pitchers that will be available at the deadline? Remember, that presumably to want to trade a pitcher at the deadline, the team would have to be non-contending. With the 2nd wildcard, a majority of the teams have been buyers or at least not sellers at the deadline over the past few seasons. The best pitchers in the 2017-18 free agent class are Arietta (not getting traded, Cubs will certainly be in playoff contention), Yu Darvish (same as Arietta) Johnny Cueto (no way, Giants are far enough from playoff race to be sellers, and good chance Cueto doesn't exercise his opt-out if he's not sure that he'll get > 4 years, 84 mil as a free agent, so Giants unlikely to treat him as a "pending free agent"), Tanaka (same exact thing as I wrote about Cueto, can be said about Tanaka and Yanks), John Lackey (see Arietta), Danny Duffy (it's feasible Royals sell, but more likely than not they don't). Then you start going down a caliber to guys like Lance Lynn, Marco Estrada, Ian Kennedy and Chris Tillman (all on contenders). So who is this big trade market for pitchers that will be seen by team's as a viable alternative to a pitcher of Quintana's quality? Hellickson, Clay Buchholz, Alex Cobb, Wei Yen Chen, Cashner. Not exactly a scary list. Sure, team's may bank on signing an Arrietta, Darvish or one of the other guys I listed as unlikely to be traded at the deadline in the offseason, so maybe the value of Quintana being under control for 4 years goes down, but 3 years of those guys will cost more than double the $ Quintana does and they will not help those teams who are looking to trade precisely because they find themselves in a playoff race for that year, which is of tremendous value alone. Yes, the 2018-2019 free agent class is fantastic, but to trade one of those guys at the 2017 deadline, a team would have to believe they are out of contention for not only 2017, but also for 2018. That narrows the list of teams even further. The Dodgers are not trading Kershaw. Tanaka could easily find himself on the market even if the Yankees are doing well. They were in contention last year when they sold Miller and Chapman and those two deals were universally lauded. I expect a few copycats as more and more teams that may be on the fringe of wild card contention make honest appraisals about themselves and their world series chances. Even if the Cubs are doing well they may think what they can get for Arrieta could extend their window and roll into the playoffs with Lester-Hendricks leading their rotation. The AL west is a meatgrinder Darvish could definitely be put up for sale. If the Giants are getting pasted by the Dodgers they will definitely put Cueto on the block. Btw, these guys are going to exercise their opt outs unless they are injured or put up 5+ ERA's and everyone knows it. What if Sonny Gray puts rebounds on a last place Oakland team? Or Tampa lowers their asking price for Archer to something more realistic? Contrast that to now, right now Quintana is the only option. He's all there is available unless you want to pay even more for a worse pitcher in Archer. I cant remember the last time the market was as barren for starters as it was this year, it was basically the White Sox firesale and Rich Hill out there to start with. This argument that the current market for pitchers will last more than a couple months is completely ludicrous. Even if you are president of the Trade Q at the Deadline Fanclub you must concede this point. Edited January 13, 2017 by Con te Giolito Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tray Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 01:33 PM) Did you just compare Josh Bell to Dayan Viciedo? Holy f*** is that a terrible comparison. It'd actually a decent comparison if you make that comparison at the same age and weight. Josh Bell is actually worse in the outfield and cannot play first base. Neither one are major league level players. Bell is Tank II. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 QUOTE (miracleon35th @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 07:06 PM) It'd actually a decent comparison if you make that comparison at the same age and weight. Josh Bell is actually worse in the outfield and cannot play first base. Neither one are major league level players. Bell is Tank II. No thanks. Lol...sure, they are the same if you completely ignore their offensive abilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reiks12 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Real shame more teams dont have the prospects for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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