Sox holding talks "daily" on Q

[steveno89]

If you believe Reed is a legit bounce-back candidate, this trade sets up our lineup nicely.

 

1B: Reed

2B: Moncada

SS: Anderson

3B: Donaldson (more realistic than Machado)

LF: Fisher/Call

CF: Basabe/Call

RF: Tucker

DH: Abreu

C: Collins

 

Even with the addition of a guy like Donaldson, we'd still have plenty of money to work with to plug other holes, most likely in the OF or at DH.

 

And we'd add two more promising young starters to an organization that already includes Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Kopech, Adams, Stephens, Hansen, & Dunning. Throw in Burdi and that's a f***ton of pitching talent.

 

That lineup could be very good at its ceiling with a blend of speed, defense and sluggers.

 

Of the two somewhat realistic deals of martes, tucker, reed, Perez

 

And Glasnow, Keller, Newman, Diaz

 

Which would sox talk rather have? Tough call

[Eminor3rd]

Arietta is in the last year of his contract, Lackey is 36, Lester is not young. You could make a case that Quintana is a fit for the Cubs.

 

Why buy him at peak price a year before you really need him? They could get him next year when Arietta is gone and give up less. Or they could sign one of the millions of high-end free agents.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Why buy him at peak price a year before you really need him? They could get him next year when Arietta is gone and give up less. Or they could sign one of the millions of high-end free agents.

Salary difference there is substantial.

[steveno89]

Salary difference there is substantial.

 

Exactly. His contract is so inexpensive compared to what high end free agents would command. Quintana would certainly be looking at a 100 plus million contract

[Bob Sacamano]

Why buy him at peak price a year before you really need him? They could get him next year when Arietta is gone and give up less. Or they could sign one of the millions of high-end free agents.

 

Yeah they can wait until next off-season to deal for him plus sign a free agent starter

[witesoxfan]

Salary difference there is substantial.

 

How much does the salary affect the Cubs though?

[Dick Allen]

How much does the salary affect the Cubs though?

Eventually it will. They were taxed in 2016. I think they can get under this year. If they keep their core together, and they are half as good as advertised, they will have an enormous payroll eventually. With just Hayward, Rizzo, Lester, and Zobrist signed, they have $68 million guaranteed in 2018.

[BlackSox13]

Eventually it will. They were taxed in 2016. I think they can get under this year. If they keep their core together, and they are half as good as advertised, they will have an enormous payroll eventually. With just Hayward, Rizzo, Lester, and Zobrist signed, they have $68 million guaranteed in 2018.

Wait until Russell, Schwarber, Bryant,. Baez get to their arbitration years and become more and more expensive. That Heyward contract is already an albatross but is hidden, for now, by the cubs winning but as players become more expensive that Heyward contract will come back to bite them in the ass.

 

Back to Q. It would be a wise move by the cubs to check in on Q and especially for a team that that's likely to lose two starters to FA after the '17 season, does not develop pitching well, have said they draft hitter heavy to trade for pitching later and don't have any room for the foreseeable future for the minor leaguers the Sox would likely desire (Happ/Jimenez/Candelario) so it does make sense. Another aspect of this is kind of a pendulum effect in that if the Pirates trade for Q they conceivably gain ground on the division leading cubs but if the cubs trade for Q they get stronger and pull further away from Pitt. Would be a slick move by Theo to jump into the mix and steal Q from the Pirates or to at least try to drive the price up on them.

 

I'm not saying the Sox/cubs will actually make a trade but they do fit very well as trade partners and makes for interesting discussions while we're bored.

Edited January 14, 2017 by BlackSox13

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Wait until Russell, Schwarber, Bryant,. Baez get to their arbitration years and become more and more expensive. That Heyward contract is already an albatross but is hidden, for now, by the cubs winning but as players become more expensive that Heyward contract will come back to bite them in the ass.

 

Back to Q. It would be a wise move by the cubs to check in on Q and especially for a team that that's likely to lose two starters to FA after the '17 season, does not develop pitching well, have said they draft hitter heavy to trade for pitching later and don't have any room for the foreseeable future for the minor leaguers the Sox would likely desire (Happ/Jimenez/Candelario) so it does make sense. Another aspect of this is kind of a pendulum effect in that if the Pirates trade for Q they conceivably gain ground on the division leading cubs but if the cubs trade for Q they get stronger and pull further away from Pitt. Would be a slick move by Theo to jump into the mix and steal Q from the Pirates or to at least try to drive the price up on them.

 

I'm not saying the Sox/cubs will actually make a trade but they do fit very well as trade partners and makes for interesting discussions while we're bored.

Agree 100%

 

[Baron]

But Quintana's value will be lower then - haven't you read the 1,800 posts proclaiming so?

 

 

I bet you if he's not traded now he wont be traded at the deadline

[Eminor3rd]

Salary difference there is substantial.

 

Exactly. His contract is so inexpensive compared to what high end free agents would command. Quintana would certainly be looking at a 100 plus million contract

 

Even if you operate under the assumption that the Cubs are cost-conscious enough to avoid a market in which abundant supply is likely to bring costs down, they'll still be able to give up far less for Quintana in a flooded market and they won't simply be upgrading their 5 slot.

Edited January 14, 2017 by Eminor3rd

[Balta1701]

Even if you operate under the assumption that the Cubs are cost-conscious enough to avoid a market in which abundant supply is likely to bring costs down, they'll still be able to give up far less for Quintana in a flooded market and they won't simply be upgrading their 5 slot.

Don't forget there may also be some value in winning the 2017 world series.

[iamshack]

Even if you operate under the assumption that the Cubs are cost-conscious enough to avoid a market in which abundant supply is likely to bring costs down, they'll still be able to give up far less for Quintana in a flooded market and they won't simply be upgrading their 5 slot.

I'm losing faith in this argument.

 

First of all, part of the reason that the market is thin is because a lot of SPs are under contract with other teams. That lessens demand. I just want to make that clear.

 

Secondly, I challenge the notion that Quintana would bring back "far less" in a flooded market. Nonsense.

[Dick Allen]

Besides Arrietta and maybe Duffy, who are the top of the rotation free agent starters available next year? Looks like a bunch of junk to me.

[Chicago White Sox]

Besides Arrietta and maybe Duffy, who are the top of the rotation free agent starters available next year? Looks like a bunch of junk to me.

I know Tanaka & Cueto can opt out of their contracts and they would be foolish not to if they have strong seasons next year.

[caulfield12]

If you believe Reed is a legit bounce-back candidate, this trade sets up our lineup nicely.

 

1B: Reed

2B: Moncada

SS: Anderson

3B: Donaldson (more realistic than Machado)

LF: Fisher/Call

CF: Basabe/Call

RF: Tucker

DH: Abreu

C: Collins

 

Even with the addition of a guy like Donaldson, we'd still have plenty of money to work with to plug other holes, most likely in the OF or at DH.

 

And we'd add two more promising young starters to an organization that already includes Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Kopech, Adams, Stephens, Hansen, & Dunning. Throw in Burdi and that's a f***ton of pitching talent.

 

 

Other than Fisher/Call most likely being fourth OFers on a playoff roster, we're looking pretty good.

Obviously, we've got the draft, more trades, FA's, international players, etc., to address those holes, too. Jones, Frazier, Jennings and Robertson all have varying degrees of value and can hopefully put up solid numbers in the first half.

 

How old would Donaldson be again upon signing a multi-year deal?

[Chicago White Sox]

Other than Fisher/Call most likely being fourth OFers on a playoff roster, we're looking pretty good.

Obviously, we've got the draft, more trades, FA's, international players, etc., to address those holes, too. Jones, Frazier, Jennings and Robertson all have varying degrees of value and can hopefully put up solid numbers in the first half.

 

How old would Donaldson be again upon signing a multi-year deal?

Donaldson would be 33 I believe, so obviously older than you'd ideally like. But he's so damn good right now that I'd expect him to remain a very good player throughout his mid 30s.

 

And I think it's way too early to write off Fisher or Call as 4th OFs. Fisher's bat could very much play in LF and it remains to be seen if Call is given a chance to stick in CF. 2017 will be a big year for both of them as they'll finally start facing some more advanced pitching.

Edited January 14, 2017 by Chicago White Sox

[Dick Allen]

I know Tanaka & Cueto can opt out of their contracts and they would be foolish not to if they have strong seasons next year.

Cueto will be 33 and will be passing on about $85 million. Tanaka looks like he will do well, but I would Imagine he stays with the Yankees, and the Yankees have him and still want Q. And Q has been a better pitcher than him anyways I just don't think the market will be as flooded as believed, and Q's contract makes teams that can't or won't pay $150 million for free agents players in his services.

 

I don't think it will come down to it, but if they held him another year, assuming he is still the same pitcher, there will be plenty of interest

Edited January 14, 2017 by Dick Allen

[SCCWS]

Other than Fisher/Call most likely being fourth OFers on a playoff roster, we're looking pretty good.

Obviously, we've got the draft, more trades, FA's, international players, etc., to address those holes, too. Jones, Frazier, Jennings and Robertson all have varying degrees of value and can hopefully put up solid numbers in the first half.

 

How old would Donaldson be again upon signing a multi-year deal?

 

I don't see Moncada getting recalled until September. I think he needs a full year in AAA to work on both sides of his game.

 

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

I don't see Moncada getting recalled until September. I think he needs a full year in AAA to work on both sides of his game.

I think that projected lineup was not for 2017.

[Eminor3rd]

Don't forget there may also be some value in winning the 2017 world series.

 

Again, they need a 5th starter. They're still the best team in baseball. Next year they'll need a 3rd starter, and it'll make sense to pony up then.

 

First of all, part of the reason that the market is thin is because a lot of SPs are under contract with other teams. That lessens demand. I just want to make that clear.

 

Yes, as a general rule -- except it turns out we have four serious suitors anyway. We are not suffering from a lack of demand.

 

Secondly, I challenge the notion that Quintana would bring back "far less" in a flooded market. Nonsense.

 

Ok, challenge it. But you'll need to provide evidence against the universal economic adage that "price sits where supply meets demand."

[Dick Allen]

Again, they need a 5th starter. They're still the best team in baseball. Next year they'll need a 3rd starter, and it'll make sense to pony up then.

 

 

 

Yes, as a general rule -- except it turns out we have four serious suitors anyway. We are not suffering from a lack of demand.

 

 

 

Ok, challenge it. But you'll need to provide evidence against the universal economic adage that "price sits where supply meets demand."

Supposedly they may use a 6 man rotation at least initially to try to offset any postseason fatigue.

[iamshack]

Yes, as a general rule -- except it turns out we have four serious suitors anyway. We are not suffering from a lack of demand.

 

 

 

Ok, challenge it. But you'll need to provide evidence against the universal economic adage that "price sits where supply meets demand."

 

I am not challenging the laws of supply and demand. I am, however, challenging your qualification of the return as "far less."

 

The supply of SPs who provide the type of surplus value that Quintana does will simply never be significantly more than it is now. Instead of 1-2, maybe there will be 2-3? That will not have a significant impact on demand.

 

I suppose the return could be SLIGHTLY less, however it won't be significantly less.

[Balta1701]

Donaldson would be 33 I believe, so obviously older than you'd ideally like. But he's so damn good right now that I'd expect him to remain a very good player throughout his mid 30s.

 

And I think it's way too early to write off Fisher or Call as 4th OFs. Fisher's bat could very much play in LF and it remains to be seen if Call is given a chance to stick in CF. 2017 will be a big year for both of them as they'll finally start facing some more advanced pitching.

One thing worth thinking about - with the White Sox's projected 2019 roster, there would likely be some substantial benefit to signing a guy who has been in the league for a number of years, been in pennant races, and been in the playoffs. I wouldn't go into a playoff race with all 24 and 25 year olds, give me someone who has been there before so that they have someone to hear from.

[steveno89]

One thing worth thinking about - with the White Sox's projected 2019 roster, there would likely be some substantial benefit to signing a guy who has been in the league for a number of years, been in pennant races, and been in the playoffs. I wouldn't go into a playoff race with all 24 and 25 year olds, give me someone who has been there before so that they have someone to hear from.

 

Sox will look to make some veteran signings to fill in what our farm system cannot. We have a solid core to build around moving forward