Jose Abreu's Value

[kwill]

I've seen rumors around every White Sox big name player except Jose Abreu. I know most on this forum believe the right approach would be to hold onto him until the All Star Break and swap him in another large trade for prospects. What do you believe his value is currently?

 

Abreu's War has decreased all three years from 5.3 WAR-2014,3.0 WAR-2015, and 1.6-2016. Obviously, He had a terrible first half of the year but it did seem like he figured some things out in the later half. There is some good things too like his K% dropped last year by 3 points and his walk rate went up 1.6% from 2015.

 

He is only 30 years old at the beginning of the season so one would think that he would have 4-5 above average years left in his bat. He is under team control for 3 year but still in arbitration so probably something like 3/38.

 

 

It is interesting as you can compare like Edwin Encarcion get a 3/60 million dollar deal with the Indians at the age of 34. To be fair, Encarcion has been a 4 win player for 5 years in a row. One would think though that Abreu has close to the same value as a decrease in production should be expected for Encarcion. To go along with my question, Do you think if Abreu hit the free agent market this year he would have received a higher or lower offer than Encarcion?

 

The second thought I had when reading the New CBA is it could be valuable to have Abreu around as a recruiting source for Cuban players. if I am reading correctly ( please correct if not), each ream will be allowed 5-6 million dollars and will be capped. If this is the case this will prevent teams like the Dodgers and Yankees from hoarding the best international players with money. It could be valuable to have both the best young player( Moncada) and another respected Cuban on the same team.

 

http://www.sbnation.com/2016/12/1/13806488...ment-luxury-tax

 

What would you expect in a trade back for Abreu if traded right now? Mine would be 1-top 50 prospect, 1-Top 150 prospect and 1 lottery ticket.

[Balta1701]

If Jose Abreu had hit the free agent market this year he would not have signed yet. My guess is he'd get something comparable to the money he's likely to get in arbitration these 3 years as a contract - basically I think he'd get paid what he's going to be paid, except with a couple years guaranteed. I do not believe any team will give up any top 100 prospect for Jose Abreu. If he hits the daylights out of the ball in the first half and looks like 2014 Abreu he might become moveable again for a return that isn't "salary dump", but right now given the choice of signing Trumbo or Bautista or any of the other 1b/DH types, Abreu looks like he is at best fairly paid and not worth giving up any additional talent.

[Chicago White Sox]

If Jose Abreu had hit the free agent market this year he would not have signed yet. My guess is he'd get something comparable to the money he's likely to get in arbitration these 3 years as a contract - basically I think he'd get paid what he's going to be paid, except with a couple years guaranteed. I do not believe any team will give up any top 100 prospect for Jose Abreu. If he hits the daylights out of the ball in the first half and looks like 2014 Abreu he might become moveable again for a return that isn't "salary dump", but right now given the choice of signing Trumbo or Bautista or any of the other 1b/DH types, Abreu looks like he is at best fairly paid and not worth giving up any additional talent.

I pretty much disagree with this entire post. His value is surely low, but to suggest a team wouldn't give up a low end top 100 prospect for him implies that no one will ever sign Trumbo or Bautista since they will require a 1st round pick. And to suggest 2014-like Abreu would generate a return described as not a "salary dump" is beyond ridiculous.

[Balta1701]

I pretty much disagree with this entire post. His value is surely low, but to suggest a team wouldn't give up a low end top 100 prospect for him implies that no one will ever sign Trumbo or Bautista since they will require a 1st round pick. And to suggest 2014-like Abreu would generate a return described as not a "salary dump" is beyond ridiculous.

That is not what I said. I said that if he were traded right now, it would basically be a salary dump - the return would be so small as to make trading him pointless. For him to not be that kind of trade, he would have to have a 2014-like first half.

 

Someone will sign Trumbo, but I think there's a good chance Bautista stays in Toronto because no one will give up the draft pick for him given his age. For teams to sign these guys, they're going to get a discount, perhaps substantially below what Abreu is being paid or for a much shorter deal.

[iamshack]

Jeesh, people are down on this guy.

 

I hope scouts don't view the guy the way some folks tend to view him by just looking at his year-end WAR totals. The guy has shown the ability to absolutely mash for extended periods of time, including against elite pitching. The entirety of his body of work has basically included his experience of leaving Cuba and transitioning to life in the US, and to playing professional ball at the highest level. I tend to think he has handled things quite well, all things considered.

 

Jose is absolutely the LAST guy on this team I have a desire to move, considering his skillset, his demeanor, the way he goes about his business, etc. He is a consummate professional and an outstanding role model for our young players, particularly our young spanish-speaking players.

 

That being said, should the guy pick up where he left off in the second half last year, one would think he should absolutely bring back a few top prospects should bats be in demand come July.

[Dick Allen]

Abreu put up a .900 OPS the second half last year, and Fangraphs had him better defensively than Eric Hosmer. If no one wants to give up anything for him keeping him isn't a bad deal.

[Donaldo]

Abreu's value won't ever be much higher than it is right now, and it will likely start dropping in the next several years.

 

He'll be a full time DH sooner rater than later.

[Jose Abreu]

He is criminally underrated/undervalued on this site. He could definitely get a top-50 guy, plus one other top-150 guy.

[ChiSox59]

If Jose Abreu had hit the free agent market this year he would not have signed yet. My guess is he'd get something comparable to the money he's likely to get in arbitration these 3 years as a contract - basically I think he'd get paid what he's going to be paid, except with a couple years guaranteed. I do not believe any team will give up any top 100 prospect for Jose Abreu. If he hits the daylights out of the ball in the first half and looks like 2014 Abreu he might become moveable again for a return that isn't "salary dump", but right now given the choice of signing Trumbo or Bautista or any of the other 1b/DH types, Abreu looks like he is at best fairly paid and not worth giving up any additional talent.

 

As has already been said, I disagree with pretty much this entire post. Abreu would get paid if he were a FA. His surplus value isn't great, and the glut of 1B types on the FA market doesn't help his present value, but the Sox could definitely get some nice prospects for Jose. That said, I don't think they're looking to move him at all.

[Balta1701]

Abreu put up a .900 OPS the second half last year, and Fangraphs had him better defensively than Eric Hosmer. If no one wants to give up anything for him keeping him isn't a bad deal.

That's because Eric Hosmer graded out as the worst 1b in baseball last year. Come on man, that's a terrible way to bury the lede. "Jose Abreu's defense was worse than Hanley Ramirez's" is equally accurate.

 

I am a bit stunned to see Votto that low - he came out worse than Abreu.

[Con te Giolito]

He has a lot of value to the White Sox, I'll tell you that much.

[chitownsportsfan]

He is criminally underrated/undervalued on this site. He could definitely get a top-50 guy, plus one other top-150 guy.

 

Not a chance in hell. He'd get you a B prospect (eg Basabe) and maybe a couple C+ types (eg "A" ball pitchers the Sox maybe have targeted) Jose doesn't have much surplus value and most teams aren't looking for a guy that is probably better as a full time DH assuming you have a halfway decent defensive 1B.

 

His defense isn't "adequate" it's bad, at a fairly easy position to fill. He's projected for about 2.1 WAR by STEAMER and a wRC+ of 119. That's good, that's a solid starter, but the projections reflect his bad 1st half just as much as his hot August and they think overall has trending the wrong way.

 

From the eye test he still has the massive pitch recognition flaws he did his rookie year, except now there's a book on him and nobody will challenge him middle in so he relies more on hitting mistakes.

 

I like Jose, he's a class act, but as a trade asset he's middling. It might be better to hold onto him and see if he gets hot and is worth more in July.

[Jose Abreu]

Not a chance in hell. He'd get you a B prospect (eg Basabe) and maybe a couple C+ types (eg "A" ball pitchers the Sox maybe have targeted) Jose doesn't have much surplus value and most teams aren't looking for a guy that is probably better as a full time DH assuming you have a halfway decent defensive 1B.

 

His defense isn't "adequate" it's bad, at a fairly easy position to fill. He's projected for about 2.1 WAR by STEAMER and a wRC+ of 119. That's good, that's a solid starter, but the projections reflect his bad 1st half just as much as his hot August and they think overall has trending the wrong way.

 

From the eye test he still has the massive pitch recognition flaws he did his rookie year, except now there's a book on him and nobody will challenge him middle in so he relies more on hitting mistakes.

 

I like Jose, he's a class act, but as a trade asset he's middling. It might be better to hold onto him and see if he gets hot and is worth more in July.

I do think his defense is poor and he profiles a DH.

 

But, in my opinion, there is a value that the big time DHs have that no stat can prove- their presence in the middle of the order gives other batters better pitches to hit, as staffs would rather work around the big hitter and attack the worse ones. That in itself has value. Also, WAR is a stat that really dislikes the power-hitting first basemen/DH due to the lack of defensive value. Many execs know that players like Abreu are more valuable than their WAR suggests due to their ability to drive in runs and hit the ball.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Jose Abreu is a very valuable member to this forum.

[caulfield12]

If that was the case, he'd already be on another roster.

 

Good thread though, this is a topic where legit arguments can be made on both sides.

 

Maybe...but they need to have at least one "veteran" offensive player, and he's the natural choice with Moncada one of the most hyped prospects in MILB the last decade and obviously a fellow Cuban.

 

That has more intrinsic value to the Sox organization (as well as their collective ability to "recruit" their countrymen) than the return available on the current trade market (due to the unsigned players).

 

June/July, it will be revisited.

 

At any rate, there has to be a few veteran players to hold down the fort and provide some stability...and unless you're a huge fan of someone like Davidson (or Delmonico/Coats), there's not really any at-bats theoretically being taken away from capable replacements in our current system.

 

With Frazier/Robertson/Cabrera all likely on the way out...you need to have at least one identifiable player, and you can certainly make the argument is he currently has more value to the White Sox than to other teams, with the outside possibility the White Sox could be competitive in 2018 and definitely in 2019, his final contract year.

[Lip Man 1]

I've seen rumors around every White Sox big name player except Jose Abreu. I know most on this forum believe the right approach would be to hold onto him until the All Star Break and swap him in another large trade for prospects. What do you believe his value is currently?

 

Abreu's War has decreased all three years from 5.3 WAR-2014,3.0 WAR-2015, and 1.6-2016. Obviously, He had a terrible first half of the year but it did seem like he figured some things out in the later half. There is some good things too like his K% dropped last year by 3 points and his walk rate went up 1.6% from 2015.

 

He is only 30 years old at the beginning of the season so one would think that he would have 4-5 above average years left in his bat. He is under team control for 3 year but still in arbitration so probably something like 3/38.

 

 

It is interesting as you can compare like Edwin Encarcion get a 3/60 million dollar deal with the Indians at the age of 34. To be fair, Encarcion has been a 4 win player for 5 years in a row. One would think though that Abreu has close to the same value as a decrease in production should be expected for Encarcion. To go along with my question, Do you think if Abreu hit the free agent market this year he would have received a higher or lower offer than Encarcion?

 

The second thought I had when reading the New CBA is it could be valuable to have Abreu around as a recruiting source for Cuban players. if I am reading correctly ( please correct if not), each ream will be allowed 5-6 million dollars and will be capped. If this is the case this will prevent teams like the Dodgers and Yankees from hoarding the best international players with money. It could be valuable to have both the best young player( Moncada) and another respected Cuban on the same team.

 

http://www.sbnation.com/2016/12/1/13806488...ment-luxury-tax

 

What would you expect in a trade back for Abreu if traded right now? Mine would be 1-top 50 prospect, 1-Top 150 prospect and 1 lottery ticket.

 

I think there was reported interest from the Rockies at one time before they signed Desmond.

 

Mark

 

[Lip Man 1]

Jeesh, people are down on this guy.

 

I hope scouts don't view the guy the way some folks tend to view him by just looking at his year-end WAR totals. The guy has shown the ability to absolutely mash for extended periods of time, including against elite pitching. The entirety of his body of work has basically included his experience of leaving Cuba and transitioning to life in the US, and to playing professional ball at the highest level. I tend to think he has handled things quite well, all things considered.

 

Jose is absolutely the LAST guy on this team I have a desire to move, considering his skillset, his demeanor, the way he goes about his business, etc. He is a consummate professional and an outstanding role model for our young players, particularly our young spanish-speaking players.

 

That being said, should the guy pick up where he left off in the second half last year, one would think he should absolutely bring back a few top prospects should bats be in demand come July.

 

Jose has a lot of good things going for him. However he needs to be a fulltime DH (regardless of if he likes it or not) and stay off the field. Guy is an absolute butcher with a glove. However with the Sox rebuilding it doesn't really matter. If he is still around when the Sox become contenders, he needs to make that move.

 

Mark

[Rowand44]

That being said, should the guy pick up where he left off in the second half last year, one would think he should absolutely bring back a few top prospects should bats be in demand come July.

This is the reason I'm more reluctant to trade him right now than any of our other name guys. He's a guy that could really rebuild some of his trade value if he goes off in the 1st half like he did the 2nd half of last season. Obviously, if the right deal comes along right now, please move him but he's a guy that could really be more valuable come the deadline than right now.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Rowand44

[striker]

Abreu isn't under contract for three years, he opted for arbitration. This could be appealing to teams because it reduces their risk if he under performs ( they can not issue him a contract) plus it limits his cost if he does perform.

 

2months of Beltran cost Dillon Tate+, so I'm sure the return on Abreu could be a couple top 10 prospects, including a MLB top 30. I'd be asking for the Eaton return, but minus Giolito, plus a different top 10. If I can't get that now, I keep Abreu and gamble on him improving his performance.

[caulfield12]

Should have said UP to three years of control...now that he opted out of the original deal.

[LittleHurt05]

This is the reason I'm more reluctant to trade him right now than any of our other name guys. He's a guy that could really rebuild some of his trade value if he goes off in the 1st half like he did the 2nd half of last season. Obviously, if the right deal comes along right now, please move him but he's a guy that could really be more valuable come the deadline than right now.

 

With guys like Trumbo and Joey Bats available on the FA market, Abreu's trade value is pretty limited now. But at the deadline, there could be unexpected contenders, a team with an injury, etc., and his value could skyrocket.

[southsider2k5]

He is criminally underrated/undervalued on this site. He could definitely get a top-50 guy, plus one other top-150 guy.

 

 

It isn't this site. Look at the hitters around baseball who have put up similar to better numbers and can't find jobs. Why would someone give up that much for Abreu when they could pick a free agent without giving up any of the future.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Discussing Abreu's trade market is kinda pointless...because there isn't 1. I don't see any team giving up anything of real value for any 1B/DH type of player in a trade with the FA market still the way it is. If he were on the market I think he would have gotten a deal by now though. No where near Encarnacion, but I could see him getting 3 or 4 years at $13-16M per year.

Edited January 6, 2017 by TheFutureIsNear

[Y2Jimmy0]

Discussing Abreu's trade market is kinda pointless...because there isn't 1. I don't see any team giving up anything of real value for any 1B/DH type of player in a trade with the FA market still the way it is. If he were on the market I think he would have gotten a deal by now though. No where near Encarnacion, but I could see him getting 3 or 4 years at $13-16M per year.

 

 

Not really the case I don't think. If Trumbo and Bautista didn't have 1st round picks attached to them, I firmly believe they'd be signed right now.

[ChiSox59]

Discussing Abreu's trade market is kinda pointless...because there isn't 1. I don't see any team giving up anything of real value for any 1B/DH type of player in a trade with the FA market still the way it is. If he were on the market I think he would have gotten a deal by now though. No where near Encarnacion, but I could see him getting 3 or 4 years at $13-16M per year.

 

Disagree. I think he would be pretty close to EE.