Jose Abreu's Value

[Jose Abreu]

Disagree. I think he would be pretty close to EE.

Especially given his age

[ChiSox59]

Especially given his age

 

I don't understand why people are here are so down on Jose. The current market is not ripe for trading him, I will agree with that. But the guy is 30, has raked in his three seasons in the big leagues, has a year to year contract with no buy-out, and is set to make a measly $10.825M next year. There is a ton of value in that.

 

Due to the current FA market being saturated with RH hitting sluggers, his trade value today isn't enormous, but if he hits anything like he did in the 2nd half last year in the 1st half of 2017, his value will be enormous. If he were a FA today, I think we would get a pretty nice deal (assuming no QO attached). Let's say 4 years and $70M.

 

Look, the Sox aren't going to give Jose away. He is going to be on the roster next year, and he should be.

[reiks12]

I really hope he rakes going into the trade deadline. He deserves to be on a winner and we deserve more prospects.

[Balta1701]

I don't understand why people are here are so down on Jose. The current market is not ripe for trading him, I will agree with that. But the guy is 30, has raked in his three seasons in the big leagues, has a year to year contract with no buy-out, and is set to make a measly $10.825M next year. There is a ton of value in that.

 

Due to the current FA market being saturated with RH hitting sluggers, his trade value today isn't enormous, but if he hits anything like he did in the 2nd half last year in the 1st half of 2017, his value will be enormous. If he were a FA today, I think we would get a pretty nice deal (assuming no QO attached). Let's say 4 years and $70M.

 

Look, the Sox aren't going to give Jose away. He is going to be on the roster next year, and he should be.

People are down on Jose because Jose Abreu was a strong disappointment last year following a slight disappointment in 2015. He had a strong second half yes but a first half where he was barely a big league player. If that was just weird statistics, then Jose Abreu is a 1b at age 30 who seems to be declining rapidly and was basically an average 1b across the entire league. If that was Abreu having physical issues in the first half of last year, then he seems to be a guy whose body is behaving like it is older than you'd expect at age 30, where physical issues are costing him production for 1/2 a season. Encarnacion's 2016 season was better than Abreu's 2015 season. If he carries forward how he hit in the 2nd half, yes that will boost his value significantly, but as of right now he's a 30 year old who has gotten worse every year and who performed a hair above Mike Napoli last year.

 

If he were a FA today I believe he'd get more than 1 year if there was no QO attached, but I think he's looking at something in the 3/$35-$40 range based on his performance the last 2 seasons. Conveniently, that's about what he'll get paid if he's tendered a contract all 3 years. This is why he'll be on the roster next year for the White Sox - he's one of several guys who we are hoping will rebuild some value with better seasons next year.

[ChiSox59]

People are down on Jose because Jose Abreu was a strong disappointment last year following a slight disappointment in 2015. He had a strong second half yes but a first half where he was barely a big league player. If that was just weird statistics, then Jose Abreu is a 1b at age 30 who seems to be declining rapidly and was basically an average 1b across the entire league. If that was Abreu having physical issues in the first half of last year, then he seems to be a guy whose body is behaving like it is older than you'd expect at age 30, where physical issues are costing him production for 1/2 a season. Encarnacion's 2016 season was better than Abreu's 2015 season. If he carries forward how he hit in the 2nd half, yes that will boost his value significantly, but as of right now he's a 30 year old who has gotten worse every year and who performed a hair above Mike Napoli last year.

 

If he were a FA today I believe he'd get more than 1 year if there was no QO attached, but I think he's looking at something in the 3/$35-$40 range based on his performance the last 2 seasons. Conveniently, that's about what he'll get paid if he's tendered a contract all 3 years. This is why he'll be on the roster next year for the White Sox - he's one of several guys who we are hoping will rebuild some value with better seasons next year.

 

According to OPS+, he was a considerably better hitter than Napoli in 2016. Not to mention, Jose still has incredible upside in his bat, whereas a guy like Napoli may give you another season like 2016 if you're lucky, but more than likely will regress back to a .750 OPS type player because he is 5 whole years older than Jose, and his only year that has approached Abreu's average season over the past three was way back in 2011.

 

Jose Abreu >>>>> Mike Napoli, and I like Mike Napoli.

[Southwest Sider]

With guys like Trumbo and Joey Bats available on the FA market, Abreu's trade value is pretty limited now. But at the deadline, there could be unexpected contenders, a team with an injury, etc., and his value could skyrocket.

 

This is what I'm hoping for. I love Abreu, but if a great market for him ever appears, such as a situation like a trade deadline with no solid 1B-DH types available except Abreu and Abreu has put up All Star numbers, then you definitely let him go because that desperate team will pay to insert his bat into the lineup.

 

Keeping Abreu during a rebuild isn't a horrible thing either. If he's average, it's okay because you're not expecting to win anything and as others have said, he would be a great role model. But if he can finally figure out his batting eye he can be a formidable offensive weapon that any team would love to have. That's what I wish for, even though he's 30 years old I'm hoping he has been going through a MLB learning process that younger players usually go through when it comes to hitting. Alternatively, perhaps the guy has just had nagging injuries that harm his batting, though it's tough to see why an injury would cause him to flail away at offspeed junk time and time again as he did in the first half of 2016.

 

[Balta1701]

According to OPS+, he was a considerably better hitter than Napoli in 2016. Not to mention, Jose still has incredible upside in his bat, whereas a guy like Napoli may give you another season like 2016 if you're lucky, but more than likely will regress back to a .750 OPS type player because he is 5 whole years older than Jose, and his only year that has approached Abreu's average season over the past three was way back in 2011.

 

Jose Abreu >>>>> Mike Napoli, and I like Mike Napoli.

wRC+ is 118 for Abreu, 113 for Napoli. Otherwise their numbers last year were comparable. Hell, their slugging %ages differ by 0.03.

 

Mike Napoli will not get anywhere near the contract I just stated I think Abreu would get. Jose Abreu would not get anywhere near the contract Encarnacion got right now. You can't go and tell me that Jose is going to get better next year when in 3 years of baseball he's gotten worse every year. If I sign him, I'm understanding there's a substantial risk that he's a sub-.800 OPS guy next year based on his trendline.

 

To change that story he needs to reverse that trendline. It's that simple. If he puts up a 2015-like season, then his value goes back into Encarnacion territory - Encarnacion was still a better hitter in 2016 than Abreu in 2015, but Abreu being younger would get a slight premium. If he puts up a 2016 like season, then he's a $10-$12 million a year player who you probably want to shift to DH. If he follows his own trendline then by 2018 he is a "Sunk cost".

[Jose Abreu]

To change that story he needs to reverse that trendline. It's that simple. If he puts up a 2015-like season, then his value goes back into Encarnacion territory - Encarnacion was still a better hitter in 2016 than Abreu in 2015, but Abreu being younger would get a slight premium. If he puts up a 2016 like season, then he's a $10-$12 million a year player who you probably want to shift to DH.

In your analysis of a potential Abreu FA contract vs. that of Encarnacion, I believe you're severely undervaluing the difference in their ages in potential salary. Abreu is 30, Encarnacion turns 34 tomorrow. That alone is a huge factor.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Jose Abreu

[Balta1701]

In your analysis of a potential Abreu FA contract vs. that of Encarnacion, I believe you're severely undervaluing the difference in their ages. Abreu is 30, Encarnacion turns 34 tomorrow. That alone is a huge factor.

And I believe you're severely undervaluing the fact that Encarnacion at age 33 outperformed Age 29 Abreu.

[ChiSox59]

wRC+ is 118 for Abreu, 113 for Napoli. Otherwise their numbers last year were comparable. Hell, their slugging %ages differ by 0.03.

 

Mike Napoli will not get anywhere near the contract I just stated I think Abreu would get. Jose Abreu would not get anywhere near the contract Encarnacion got right now. You can't go and tell me that Jose is going to get better next year when in 3 years of baseball he's gotten worse every year. If I sign him, I'm understanding there's a substantial risk that he's a sub-.800 OPS guy next year based on his trendline.

 

To change that story he needs to reverse that trendline. It's that simple. If he puts up a 2015-like season, then his value goes back into Encarnacion territory - Encarnacion was still a better hitter in 2016 than Abreu in 2015, but Abreu being younger would get a slight premium. If he puts up a 2016 like season, then he's a $10-$12 million a year player who you probably want to shift to DH. If he follows his own trendline then by 2018 he is a "Sunk cost".

 

Wanna make a wager?

[Jose Abreu]

And I believe you're severely undervaluing the fact that Encarnacion at age 33 outperformed Age 29 Abreu.

Sure, but as a GM, I'd feel more comfortable paying less money to a 33 year old Abreu than a 37 year old Encarnacion in 2020.

[Balta1701]

Sure, but as a GM, I'd feel more comfortable paying less money to a 33 year old Abreu than a 37 year old Encarnacion in 2020.

And from my GM chair, I look at a guy who put up a .964 OPS at age 27, a .850 OPS at 28, and a .820 OPS at 29, and say that at the current rate he'll be a .700 OPS hitter by age 33.

 

Right now he's a league average 1b trending rapidly downwards. Every part of his game got weaker last year and every part of his game is trending downwards. You can say all you want about how he's younger, but his numbers make it look like he's aging worse than the much older guy. Turn that trend around and you become correct - his value can shoot back up because he is younger if he were to start performing again. That doesn't change what he has done the last 2 years.

[elrockinMT]

After you read some of these posts, which go to great pains to bash Sox players like Abreu, Frazier, Quintana etc you come away wondering why we even field a team

[ChiSox59]

And from my GM chair, I look at a guy who put up a .964 OPS at age 27, a .850 OPS at 28, and a .820 OPS at 29, and say that at the current rate he'll be a .700 OPS hitter by age 33.

 

Right now he's a league average 1b trending rapidly downwards. Every part of his game got weaker last year and every part of his game is trending downwards. You can say all you want about how he's younger, but his numbers make it look like he's aging worse than the much older guy. Turn that trend around and you become correct - his value can shoot back up because he is younger if he were to start performing again. That doesn't change what he has done the last 2 years.

 

Again - you seem so certain Jose will not improve on his 2016 season. We'll use your preferred stat wRC+ - let's make a wager on next season. I say he improves - you say he doesn't.

[BlackSox13]

After you read some of these posts, which go to great pains to bash Sox players like Abreu, Frazier, Quintana etc you come away wondering why we even field a team

Ive seen no bashing at all. Its quite logical to point out Abreu's numbers are trending downwards because you can bet that any GM calling about Abreu is going to point that out when Abreu's value is discussed. Same with Frazier's low BA and high k-rate that really hurt his value along with the fact there's plenty of power bats in FA and a very small demand for third baseman. As for Q, there has been no bashing in this thread or the Q thread and in fact the high expectations of a return from a Q trade show how highly he is valued by those participating in the threads about Q.

 

The real bashing will start when people see what Abreu and Frazier being back in return.

[southsider2k5]

Ive seen no bashing at all. Its quite logical to point out Abreu's numbers are trending downwards because you can bet that any GM calling about Abreu is going to point that out when Abreu's value is discussed. Same with Frazier's low BA and high k-rate that really hurt his value along with the fact there's plenty of power bats in FA and a very small demand for third baseman. As for Q, there has been no bashing in this thread or the Q thread and in fact the high expectations of a return from a Q trade show how highly he is valued by those participating in the threads about Q.

 

The real bashing will start when people see what Abreu and Frazier being back in return.

 

Declining number combined with a lack of MLB interest in the types of players that Frazier and Abreu are.

[Balta1701]

Again - you seem so certain Jose will not improve on his 2016 season. We'll use your preferred stat wRC+ - let's make a wager on next season. I say he improves - you say he doesn't.

Turn that trend around and you become correct - his value can shoot back up because he is younger if he were to start performing again. That doesn't change what he has done the last 2 years.

You have a very odd definition of certainty. The 2nd quote is in the portion you replied to.

[ChiSox59]

You have a very odd definition of certainty. The 2nd quote is in the portion you replied to.

 

So you don't want to take the bet? I get you like to play devil's advocate, but you often come off as extremely negative towards Sox players.

 

Yes, Jose has had a negative trend in his three years in the big leagues. I'd be willing to bet that his 2017 is closer to his 14/15 than his 16. Your comments would lead one to believe you think he'll continue his decline. Hence, I offered a wager. Happy to take you up on it if you reconsider and want to put a little doe behind your theories.

[oldsox]

So you don't want to take the bet? I get you like to play devil's advocate, but you often come off as extremely negative towards Sox players.

 

Yes, Jose has had a negative trend in his three years in the big leagues. I'd be willing to bet that his 2017 is closer to his 14/15 than his 16. Your comments would lead one to believe you think he'll continue his decline. Hence, I offered a wager. Happy to take you up on it if you reconsider and want to put a little doe behind your theories.

I say he'll improve his 2017 numbers, too. Don't know why he had such a lousy July, unless it was related to the hazy status of his son, now resolved.