Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week

[caulfield12]

It doesn't seem to make sense that the Sox are in a particular position to take the risk of trading a hugely valuable asset for less projectable high-upside players that also have a good chance of not panning out altogether. If anything, the fact that the Sox are in full rebuild mode for at least next 2-3 years, and selling off their valuable major assets makes them less well-positioned to take such a risk. A team with a plethora of young players who are eminently projectable would be the one better positioned to take a risk. You know you have the core of a succesful team going forward anyway, and if a high-upside guy pans out, it's all gravy. For the Sox who are trying to rebuil, when they don't really yet have a ton of young players further toward the "sure thing" end of the projectability continuum, you really want to make sure you acquire critical number of players you can count on to form the core of a succesful team down the road when you're ready to contend, and you certainly don't want to trade hugely valuable major league assets for packages with stronger chances of amounting to absolutely nothing, even if they have higher upside. This is likely why the rumors were that the Sox were trying really hard to get major league ready guys/guys who even have some level of major league experience (Bregman, Benintendi, Turner, Swanson, Dahl etc...) in spite of the fact that those guys would be lingering in the majors for 2-3 years with their service time clocks running while the Sox have zero chance of contending. Yes, the ship on getting a guy as far along on the projectability continuum as one of the aforementioned players has long ago sailed, but it's really not an all or nothing strategy. The reasoning still holds, even if the Bregmans and Swansons of the world are not happening that you want to make sure you add pieces that they can have a greater degree of confidence will be able to contribute at a major league level, even if their top-end upside may not be as quite as high as a toolsy A-ball outfielder from Houston.

 

 

Therein lies the conundrum.

 

You have to get at least TWO 3-4 WAR guys for it to make any sense, or you're better not trading him.

 

The odds aren't great that you can put all your eggs in one basket if it's closer to a one for one trade. For every Seager, there's a 10-20 Joc Pederson's who's very solid but won't give you Q's numbers.

 

If you were to put Turner, Benintendi, Swanson, Moncada, Torres, Gary Sanchez, Bregman, Meadows, Rodgers/Dahl, etc., into a time machine, how many of those guys are going to beat Q's WAR over the next four years in 6-7 years? 1/3rd of them? 25%?

 

 

Like you said, if you extend it out over 4-5 players instead of going for 2-3 REALLY solid ones, there's no doubt there are two sides to both approaches. The best all-time version of this trade is something between Colon for Cliff Lee/Sizemore/B. Phillips and Greinke (much less control at the time of trade, but an unquestioned ace) for Cain/Escobar. The Hamels to the Rangers trade would be another to look at, moreso than Shelby Miller to the DBacks (because it's now one of the barriers to another "steal" of a trade like Eaton to the DBacks is perceived to be in the industry).

 

At any rate, it feels like the best strategy is to make a mixture of these deals and pray your scouting is spot on. Kopech/Basabe and starting pitching always is going to have a high bust rate, so position players SEEM like safer bets.

 

The problem the White Sox are in right now as it almost feels like they HAVE to get position prospects back for Q, and that's eliminating a number of possible trades, along with this "untouchables" prevailing storyline about the players listed above. There's no doubt the White Sox have been terrible developing hitters, there's also no doubt "offense sells at USCF over defense/pitching" (if both result in .500ish teams) and that this team has BEEN DYING for a young hitting star. For fifteen years, we've only produced Rowand/Crede....and I won't list the flameouts because we all know them forwards and backwards.

 

So maybe taking a step back would be the best thing for all parties at the moment....rather than "forcing" a trade to happen because of arbitrary deadlines like Sox Fest, the start of the WBC, Spring Training report dates, etc.

[tray]

Q has been as consistently good as any pitcher in the league the last few years. Zero reasons to take a less package for him, especially whatever garbage package of sub-standard prospects the Astros want to throw at us. Q is an all star TOR with probably the best contract in baseball. We need an A headliner positional prospect, not just a bunch of b level prospects.

Hold onto him if the package isn't there. He will do what he does and some team at the deadline who is desperate for an arm will give in.

 

Exactly. The bushels of prospects reportedly wheeled up by interested teams have been a waste of everyone's time. The trade for Q has to be considered almost as a one-for-one deal with some minor league talent going one way or the other.

 

 

[caulfield12]

I tend to agree. This is certainly a very real possibility. It's a possibility most people have ignored, by just repeating the refrain that "his value will never be higher", so we must trade Quintana right now. I've spelled out a ton of reasons at length why his value could very realistically increase, and even more likely that it certainly won't decrease, if Sox hold on to him. There is no deadline to trade him or anyone else. The Sox should make the move when they think the return is likely to be at it's optimal point period.

 

One thing none of the "Code-Red, trade Quintana in the next 10 seconds!" camp seems to have thought about is that if it is absolutely undeniable that once the season begins Quintana's value cannot possibly ever get any higher than it is at this very second, because of an imagined glut of impending FA pitchers available at the deadline this year, and is most likely to decrease, how is it possible that his value will increase over the course of the current offseason, from now until the start of the season? Why would it be that Quintana could net a better return in a week than he did a week ago? You can phrase it differently, as there being more available pitchers at the deadline or whatever, but the bottom line is that the sentiment that we have to trade Quintana now, lies in the assumption that as time goes on, the only thing that can change re Quintana, is that potential suitors will have moved on to other options (e.g. pending FAs available at the deadline). It may not be quite the furious swap market that it will be at the deadline, but still, over the course of the offseason the same should hold true, if you believe that. That is, the only thing that can happen re Quintana's value as the offseason moves from today to tomorrow to next week, is that teams could pursue other options and the Sox are left holding Quintana and trading him for even less than they turned down a week ago. I'm not saying Quintana's value certainly has increased over the course of the offseason and/or that it will continue to increase, but if the Sox didn't think was the strongest possibility they obviously would have dealt him a week ago. Obviously, they could end up having made the wrong decision. That's a possibility. But, even if we think they are a bad front office, they wouldn't hold him as long as they have if it were so in your face obvious as everyone likes to make it seem that every day he's held his value can only go down and will not possibly go up. Obviously, there are very real reasons why the Sox have decided that his value was likely to increase even as they have held on to him or they wouldn't have done so. Again, they may end up being wrong, but to paint it as so obvious a decision in disregard of that fact, is a bit ignorant.

 

 

Not to mention "adding that key impact player" would provide a huge boost (despite it being after Christmas) to a lot of team's season ticket marketing plans...

 

How many seats he would sell, hard to say, but it's not an insignificant consideration for teams thinking about striking now instead of waiting to see what their own internal prospects can produce in the first 2-3 months of the season.

[BlackSox13]

This is a silly "all or nothing" way of looking at it. If the only choices are either a) keeping Quintana for 4 more years or b) 4-5 wide range of outcome (high high upside/low low downside) prospects, sure, it would probably make more sense to jettison Quintana for those guys. Of course, (a) is not really an option at all. I think 99.9% of Sox fans and interested baseball observers agree that Quintana will not finish out the entirety of his current contract with the Sox. It's just a matter of when he is traded, and the type of package he is traded for. That's really the question. This hypothetical Astros package vs other potential packages for Quintana. Of course that's hard to do, since it's pretty much entirely speculation as to what is currently on the table for Quintana, be it this conjured 4-5 wide range of outcome (high high upside/low low downside) prospect package from Houston or any alternatives.

I don't know what else to say in all honesty. I've already explained in my last two or three posts where I was coming from and why I actually like the package of Tucker/Reed/Fisher/Stubbs +.

[Con te Giolito]

The only reason Hahn hasn't been burned by refusing to back off what are surely ridiculous demands is because there are no other options out there. Trust me, if Houston or Pittsburgh could find a good lefty elsewhere they would've done that by now. They know they need to shore up their rotations if they want to seriously compete this year and they need to go after Q unless they are willing to deal with an even more ridiculously stubborn Rays front office.

 

It was fine that Hahn started with a really high ask for Quintana but now its time to back off a little and meet these teams halfway. I dont understand the enthusiasm for waiting. That above dynamic that has bailed Hahn out will be gone soon, I really dont know what else to say to those who refuse to believe that. How long have you guys followed baseball? Have you ever seen a pitching market as barren as this one? It wont last, and if you think it will you are letting stubborness cloud your judgment.

[caulfield12]

Unless it's Bellinger, almost everyone seems to be totally against the idea of acquiring anyone who will end up at 1B/DH/corner outfield.

 

Whether it's Josh Bell, AJ Reed, Gallo, Judge...the pendulum has almost swung back too far the other way and needs to correct a bit again.

 

 

 

Of course, when you look at DH/LF/RF results for much of the last decade, the White Sox have been bottom feeders. It's not THAT easy to find elite or even very good hitters, even if they are relatively one-dimensional.

Edited January 18, 2017 by caulfield12

[Baron]

I think the point that is missing from the rebuttal of people like me who dont support waiting is Hahn would be deliberately reducing who he could acquire at the deadline.

 

Lets say the Pirates say screw you White Sox we're going with what we have. They bring up Meadows and Glasnow who are both contributing to a team fighting for a playoff spot. You think they are going to be traded now? Nope.

 

Same goes for Houston. They bring up Martes and Tucker moves up a few levels as he's almost ready. You think they are going to get traded? No.

 

White Sox have acquired guys so far that arent far away. Your reducing these teams assets that they need to go fight for a playoff spot. They are going to probably offer you prospects in the lower levels of the farm system.

 

What are the chances another team fighting for that spot sacrifices major league ready talent in the middle of the season?

 

If the answer to that question is unlikely then you have a problem. That's where I'm at...I just dont see a good outcome if he's still on the roster by Spring Training other than him contributing to the team.

Edited January 18, 2017 by Baron

[Chicago White Sox]

The only reason Hahn hasn't been burned by refusing to back off what are surely ridiculous demands is because there are no other options out there. Trust me, if Houston or Pittsburgh could find a good lefty elsewhere they would've done that by now. They know they need to shore up their rotations if they want to seriously compete this year and they need to go after Q unless they are willing to deal with an even more ridiculously stubborn Rays front office.

 

It was fine that Hahn started with a really high ask for Quintana but now its time to back off a little and meet these teams halfway. I dont understand the enthusiasm for waiting. That above dynamic that has bailed Hahn out will be gone soon, I really dont know what else to say to those who refuse to believe that. How long have you guys followed baseball? Have you ever seen a pitching market as barren as this one? It wont last, and if you think it will you are letting stubborness cloud your judgment.

100% agree with this.

[iamshack]

I think the point that is missing from the rebuttal of people like me who dont support waiting is Hahn would be deliberately reducing who he could acquire at the deadline.

 

Lets say the Pirates say screw you White Sox we're going with what we have. They bring up Meadows and Glasnow who are both contributing to a team fighting for a playoff spot. You think they are going to be traded now? Nope.

 

Same goes for Houston. They bring up Martes and Tucker moves up a few levels as he's almost ready. You think they are going to get traded? No.

 

White Sox have acquired guys so far that arent far away. Your reducing these teams assets that they need to go fight for a playoff spot. They are going to probably offer you prospects in the lower levels of the farm system.

 

What are the chances another team fighting for that spot sacrifices major league ready talent in the middle of the season?

 

If the answer to that question is unlikely then you have a problem. That's where I'm at...I just dont see a good outcome if he's still on the roster by Spring Training other than him contributing to the team.

Don't you think there will be other guys that make a move between now and the deadline that we will want?

[Chicago White Sox]

I think the point that is missing from the rebuttal of people like me who dont support waiting is Hahn would be deliberately reducing who he could acquire at the deadline.

 

Lets say the Pirates say screw you White Sox we're going with what we have. They bring up Meadows and Glasnow who are both contributing to a team fighting for a playoff spot. You think they are going to be traded now? Nope.

 

Same goes for Houston. They bring up Martes and Tucker moves up a few levels as he's almost ready. You think they are going to get traded? No.

 

White Sox have acquired guys so far that arent far away. Your reducing these teams assets that they need to go fight for a playoff spot. They are going to probably offer you prospects in the lower levels of the farm system.

 

What are the chances another team fighting for that spot sacrifices major league ready talent in the middle of the season?

 

If the answer to that question is unlikely then you have a problem. That's where I'm at...I just dont see a good outcome if he's still on the roster by Spring Training other than him contributing to the team.

Agree with this as well.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

The only reason Hahn hasn't been burned by refusing to back off what are surely ridiculous demands is because there are no other options out there. Trust me, if Houston or Pittsburgh could find a good lefty elsewhere they would've done that by now. They know they need to shore up their rotations if they want to seriously compete this year and they need to go after Q unless they are willing to deal with an even more ridiculously stubborn Rays front office.

 

It was fine that Hahn started with a really high ask for Quintana but now its time to back off a little and meet these teams halfway. I dont understand the enthusiasm for waiting. That above dynamic that has bailed Hahn out will be gone soon, I really dont know what else to say to those who refuse to believe that. How long have you guys followed baseball? Have you ever seen a pitching market as barren as this one? It wont last, and if you think it will you are letting stubborness cloud your judgment.

I agree. By no means should Hahn trade Q for anything less than he's worth, but I think it's time to stop asking for Meadows, Bell, and Glasnow (just a theoretical example) and meet somewhere in the middle with one of these interested teams.

 

I really don't see any positive coming out of Q staying on this team after Spring Training starts.

[BlackSox13]

Unless it's Bellinger, almost everyone seems to be totally against the idea of acquiring anyone who will end up at 1B/DH/corner outfield.

 

Whether it's Josh Bell, AJ Reed, Gallo, Judge...the pendulum has almost swung back too far the other way and needs to correct a bit again.

 

 

 

Of course, when you look at DH/LF/RF results for much of the last decade, the White Sox have been bottom feeders. It's not THAT easy to find elite or even very good hitters, even if they are relatively one-dimensional.

I don't get the objections to Reed and Bell. Look at the production the Sox have been getting from the DH spot and most of us would agree that Abreu should be a DH so getting a 1B as part of a package for Q is fine with me. Not like the Sox have better options for 1B in the minors.

[Chicago White Sox]

And I don't think we should ignore the threat of Archer & Gray on Quintana's potential value at the trade deadline. With strong rebounds, those two guys become very attractive alternatives and create even more competition on the seller side. Right now, we are only with a cost-controlled TOR starter available that doesn't have question marks on top of an extremely high price tag. That could easily change in the next six months.

Edited January 18, 2017 by Chicago White Sox

[iamshack]

The only reason Hahn hasn't been burned by refusing to back off what are surely ridiculous demands is because there are no other options out there. Trust me, if Houston or Pittsburgh could find a good lefty elsewhere they would've done that by now. They know they need to shore up their rotations if they want to seriously compete this year and they need to go after Q unless they are willing to deal with an even more ridiculously stubborn Rays front office.

 

It was fine that Hahn started with a really high ask for Quintana but now its time to back off a little and meet these teams halfway. I dont understand the enthusiasm for waiting. That above dynamic that has bailed Hahn out will be gone soon, I really dont know what else to say to those who refuse to believe that. How long have you guys followed baseball? Have you ever seen a pitching market as barren as this one? It wont last, and if you think it will you are letting stubborness cloud your judgment.

Why?

 

Explain to me why Hahn's perception of Quintana's value is wrong and Luhnow or Huntington's perception of Quintana's value is right?

 

Why should we compromise?

 

In regards to a barren pitching market, how many assets have you seen become available like Q before? Irregardless of how many other SP's might come on the market in the next 6-18 months, how many do you suppose will provide the surplus value that Quintana does, especially if teams aren't showing a willingness to liquidate their prospects for such assets? This notion that some influx of other reasonable arms coming on the market is somehow going to water down Quintana's market is pure horses***. You don't think those pitchers are truly available today, as potential tradeable assets rather than free agents? You don't think the Tigers would trade Verlander? It's not a question of a barren market, it's question of an asset being so valuable that teams are hesitant to liquidate assets for them.

 

That shouldn't cause us to lower our price. What that requires is patience. Finding the "right" buyer isn't always a fast process, but that buyer does exist. Hahn will find them.

[Baron]

Don't you think there will be other guys that make a move between now and the deadline that we will want?

 

I think if your discussing anybody in AAA or in the Majors that's going to fall on deaf ears with alot of these teams. Even though the prospect rankings will change.

 

 

 

I mean is it impossible to think Hahn's demands are completely asinine for Q? Also as stupid as it is to think Q isnt a top of the line pitcher maybe these teams have a different view of him. Then what? I think baseball has shown over the years that there are plenty of old farts stupid enough to dismiss what the data is showing them.

Edited January 18, 2017 by Baron

[iamshack]

I think if your discussing anybody in AAA or in the Majors that's going to fall on deaf ears with alot of these teams. Even though the prospect rankings will change.

There will be A and AA players that take significant steps forward in the next 6 months.

[Con te Giolito]

Why?

 

Explain to me why Hahn's perception of Quintana's value is wrong and Luhnow or Huntington's perception of Quintana's value is right?

 

Why should we compromise?

Jose Quintana the pitcher is a commodity and like any commodity he is worth what the market will pay. If Coppopela, Luhnow, Huntington and Cashman are all not willing to meet Hahn's price then Hahn's price is too high. That is how a market works. I dont know how much more this has to be explained.

 

Compromise is an essential part of doing business and it is not shameful for the White Sox to meet a potential buyer somewhere in the middle for Quintana. Right now appears clear that Hahn is refusing to budge from outrageous demands, demands that wont be met now nor at the deadline nor next offseason. The risk of keeping Quintana for even spring training far outweighs any benefit. The deadline is not magic. It will not miraculously boost Quintana's value.

 

Its time for the Sox to quit dipping their toes in the pool and get on with the rebuild. Hahn has gone through his salesmanship and assembled interested parties, take the best offer and move on to dealing Frazier, Robertson and (if possible) Melky. That is what is best for the White Sox now.

[Baron]

There will be A and AA players that take significant steps forward in the next 6 months.

 

 

Right and if those teams think they are near the Majors why would they trade them at the deadline? Tucker isnt at AAA or Double A. But he's not so far away that you cant even dream about the team he would be playing for. These teams love their prospects especially Houston. It's a risk that I dont think is going to pan out well because after the deadline the offseason market for Q will probably be at a snails pace.

 

I mean if your waiting until the deadline your atleast crossing Pittsburgh off.

Edited January 18, 2017 by Baron

[Chicago White Sox]

Why?

 

Explain to me why Hahn's perception of Quintana's value is wrong and Luhnow or Huntington's perception of Quintana's value is right?

 

Why should we compromise?

 

In regards to a barren pitching market, how many assets have you seen become available like Q before? Irregardless of how many other SP's might come on the market in the next 6-18 months, how many do you suppose will provide the surplus value that Quintana does, especially if teams aren't showing a willingness to liquidate their prospects for such assets? This notion that some influx of other reasonable arms coming on the market is somehow going to water down Quintana's market is pure horses***. You don't think those pitchers are truly available today, as potential tradeable assets rather than free agents? You don't think the Tigers would trade Verlander? It's not a question of a barren market, it's question of an asset being so valuable that teams are hesitant to liquidate assets for them.

 

That shouldn't cause us to lower our price. What that requires is patience. Finding the "right" buyer isn't always a fast process, but that buyer does exist. Hahn will find them.

I don't think Hahn perceives his current ask to be fair value. I think he's simply testing how desperate teams are in the off chance someone will do a Shelby Miller 2.0 trade. Right now, he's the only seller in town and he can take his time without worrying too much about teams moving on to other alternatives. But the reality is at some point he needs to come off these purposely exaggerated demands and try to get a deal done. There is no doubt in my mind he's sitting on some pretty nice offers. And honestly, the best way for him to improve those offers is being prepared to accept one and force another team to top it or lose out of Quintana for good.

[fathom]

The rumored package that Hahn wanted initially from the Astros was bad. If he has to accept even less than that, then shame on him. I feel like going over a month without a move has made a lot of people too anxious.

[Baron]

The rumored package that Hahn wanted initially from the Astros was bad. If he has to accept even less than that, then shame on him. I feel like going over a month without a move has made a lot of people too anxious.

 

 

The Musgrove one? I thought that was bad for Houston.

Edited January 18, 2017 by Baron

[iamshack]

Jose Quintana the pitcher is a commodity and like any commodity he is worth what the market will pay. If Coppopela, Luhnow, Huntington and Cashman are all not willing to meet Hahn's price then Hahn's price is too high. That is how a market works. I dont know how much more this has to be explained.

 

Compromise is an essential part of doing business and it is not shameful for the White Sox to meet a potential buyer somewhere in the middle for Quintana. Right now appears clear that Hahn is refusing to budge from outrageous demands, demands that wont be met now nor at the deadline nor next offseason. The risk of keeping Quintana for even spring training far outweighs any benefit. The deadline is not magic. It will not miraculously boost Quintana's value.

 

Its time for the Sox to quit dipping their toes in the pool and get on with the rebuild. Hahn has gone through his salesmanship and assembled interested parties, take the best offer and move on to dealing Frazier, Robertson and (if possible) Melky. That is what is best for the White Sox now.

I hate to break it to you, but that is not how a market works. Jose Quintana is not a fungible good or a widget. He is not a barrel of oil or a bail of hay or a megawatt of electricity or a british thermal unit of natural gas. He is a unique and rare asset and sometimes such assets require time to find the right buyer. Such an asset necessarily is expensive and thus the number of buyers is lower than less expensive assets.

 

There is no rush here. There is only impatience.

[fathom]

The Musgrove one? I thought that was bad for Houston.

 

Thought it was underwhelming for the Sox

[iamshack]

I don't think Hahn perceives his current ask to be fair value. I think he's simply testing how desperate teams are in the off chance someone will do a Shelby Miller 2.0 trade. Right now, he's the only seller in town and he can take his time without worrying too much about teams moving on to other alternatives. But the reality is at some point he needs to come off these purposely exaggerated demands and try to get a deal done. There is no doubt in my mind he's sitting on some pretty nice offers. And honestly, the best way for him to improve those offers is being prepared to accept one and force another team to top it or lose out of Quintana for good.

I generally love your insight, but lately you seem to be allowing impatience to cloud your judgment.

 

This post is entirely speculation (albeit perhaps informed).

[heirdog]

The only reason Hahn hasn't been burned by refusing to back off what are surely ridiculous demands is because there are no other options out there. Trust me, if Houston or Pittsburgh could find a good lefty elsewhere they would've done that by now. They know they need to shore up their rotations if they want to seriously compete this year and they need to go after Q unless they are willing to deal with an even more ridiculously stubborn Rays front office.

 

It was fine that Hahn started with a really high ask for Quintana but now its time to back off a little and meet these teams halfway. I dont understand the enthusiasm for waiting. That above dynamic that has bailed Hahn out will be gone soon, I really dont know what else to say to those who refuse to believe that. How long have you guys followed baseball? Have you ever seen a pitching market as barren as this one? It wont last, and if you think it will you are letting stubborness cloud your judgment.

 

Outside of the conjecture of "ridiculous demands" what you say would be plausible except that these teams are not so turned off by said ridiculous demands that they remain "engaged" in "daily talks." That is all we know and the fact remains that since a deal has yet to be completed, the offers are below asking and will remain so in 6 months. So there is less risk for the Sox then one of the teams bidding because if one team blinks and gets Q, the remaining have no recourse as the asset they were haggling over is gone. Sellers market and really not up against any deadline so be patient.