Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week

[bmags]

Touche. I don't disagree.

 

There is a difference between arguing (sparring, jousting, call it what you will) and true worrying. My post was intended for those unfortunate few who are truly "worrying."

 

I'm not worried. I do think that the package we can get this offseason is worth pulling the trigger on.

 

Not worried about it being late in offseason, as recent offseasons seem to be getting resolved later and later (Ian Desmond/Fowler last year)

[southsider2k5]

So lets just say a year passes and we're in this exact same spot with Q. The guys who are on board with waiting arent going to complain if his value drops right? You'll just say it was a risk worth taking?

 

I will. Just because something doesn't come to fruition doesn't mean it wasn't the right thing to do.

[ChiSox59]

So lets just say a year passes and we're in this exact same spot with Q. The guys who are on board with waiting arent going to complain if his value drops right? You'll just say it was a risk worth taking?

 

Thing is, you'll have absolutely zero clue if his value actually dropped, unless he has a catastrophic injury, or turns into a little league pitching machine next season.

 

Teams are only willing to give up so much. Just look at the Sale trade. If the Sox traded him last winter, I doubt they do any better than they did in December. Assuming Q goes out and does his thing (lets remember that he has historically gotten some of the worst run support in the league and poor defense - really cant get much worse in that regard), his value is going nowhere. That is a much safer bet than acquiring Martes, Tucker and Paulino and hoping like hell one or more of those guys actually turn into a meaningful asset. Plus, you have to also recognize that the Sox really need an infusion of position player talent, and to this point, it seems like the available packages are pitching focused. I tend to agree that you take the best package available and sort it out later, but in this case, acquiring hitting is obviously hte priority.

 

Those of us in the patience crowd are all about trading Q if the price is right - I assure you of that. But the aforementioned package, or even then the supposedly rumored package of Martes, Tucker and Musgrove doesn't exactly get me all warm and fuzzy. I think the assumption is that if the Astros really turned that down, they're offering something significantly less, that is going to be very underwhelming.

Edited January 18, 2017 by ChiSox59

[Dick Allen]

Thing is, you'll have absolutely zero clue if his value actually dropped, unless he has a catastrophic injury, or turns into a little league pitching machine next season.

 

Teams are only willing to give up so much. Just look at the Sale trade. If the Sox traded him last winter, I doubt they do any better than they did in December. Assuming Q goes out and does his thing (lets remember that he has historically gotten some of the worst run support in the league and poor defense - really cant get much worse in that regard), his value is going nowhere. That is a much safer bet than acquiring Martes, Tucker and Paulino and hoping like hell one or more of those guys actually turn into a meaningful asset. Plus, you have to also recognize that the Sox really need an infusion of position player talent, and to this point, it seems like the available packages are pitching focused. I tend to agree that you take the best package available and sort it out later, but in this case, acquiring hitting is obviously hte priority.

 

Those of us in the patience crowd are all about trading Q if the price is right - I assure you of that. But the aforementioned package, or even then the supposedly rumored package of Martes, Tucker and Musgrove doesn't exactly get me all warm and fuzzy. I think the assumption is that if the Astros really turned that down, they're offering something significantly less, that is going to be very underwhelming.

That's a good question to ask for all those so worried Q won't be worth anything if the Sox don't trade him in the next 24 hours.

How much ddi the ultimate package for Sale and/or Eaton deteriorate by the White Sox not trading either of them a year sooner?

 

I am with you, Sale's, I am not guessing much if anything at all, and Eaton's certainly went up. There is a limit on what teams will give up. TOR guys with 4 years or even 3 years of cheap control are hardly ever traded. One reason is because either teams don't have the prospects, or they have to give up so many. Q is in that boat. He will be at just about max price if they wait another year as long as he performs and is healthy.

[Jerksticks]

That's a good question to ask for all those so worried Q won't be worth anything if the Sox don't trade him in the next 24 hours.

How much ddi the ultimate package for Sale and/or Eaton deteriorate by the White Sox not trading either of them a year sooner?

 

I am with you, Sale's, I am not guessing much if anything at all, and Eaton's certainly went up. There is a limit on what teams will give up. TOR guys with 4 years or even 3 years of cheap control are hardly ever traded. One reason is because either teams don't have the prospects, or they have to give up so many. Q is in that boat. He will be at just about max price if they wait another year as long as he performs and is healthy.

Yep. Agreed.

 

Look at the hauls for Miller & Chapman. And those guys aren't exactly cheap by any means.

[Jerksticks]

I totally sympathize with the get it done crowd. We all want to rip the bandaid off and start over with all the prospects ASAP. It sucks waiting for Christmas when you're a kid too.

 

Trust in Santa Hahn- he's been marvelous.

[bighurt574]

That's a good question to ask for all those so worried Q won't be worth anything if the Sox don't trade him in the next 24 hours.

How much ddi the ultimate package for Sale and/or Eaton deteriorate by the White Sox not trading either of them a year sooner?

 

I am with you, Sale's, I am not guessing much if anything at all, and Eaton's certainly went up. There is a limit on what teams will give up. TOR guys with 4 years or even 3 years of cheap control are hardly ever traded. One reason is because either teams don't have the prospects, or they have to give up so many. Q is in that boat. He will be at just about max price if they wait another year as long as he performs and is healthy.

 

Yep. Diminishing returns with all those years of control. That fourth year should in theory be worth something extra, but if you don't like the packages on the table, it's sort of a moot point.

 

Hahn has done a good job so far with the Sale/Eaton trades. Really no reason not to trust him at this point.

[striker]

If you want to scout the Astros more...

https://twitter.com/BaseballAmerica/status/...813247561109504

 

@BaseballAmerica

#Top10Prospects Podcast: @jjcoop36 and @johnmanuelba wrap up the AL by talking @astros ? bba.am/9GUpWl

 

[The Beast]

Why? Because of impatience? Seriously, this is going to be a long 5 years for you.

Because I hope someone has the guts to ask actual questions instead of the typical BS. He won't spill anything but at least we could see what he says about the reports we have. Or we can just continue to sit and speculate as we have in the last four threads...I am patient with losing but I do want to see moves continue to be made.

[FT35]

Yep. Agreed.

 

Look at the hauls for Miller & Chapman. And those guys aren't exactly cheap by any means.

 

Yes! And it's crazy to think that a half season of Chapman (on an expiring contract) netted a player like Torres and the Yankees balk at including him in a deal for Q--an all-star TOR starter with 4 years of CHEAP control. Seriously...kudos to Cashman on that deal. That's some great GM work no matter what you think about the Yankees organization. However, I would think that forwarding Torres on as a part of a deal to get Q would be a genius move as well--essentially turning a half season of Chapman, on an expiring contract, into Quintana for 4 years. Pretty brilliant. Because of this...I'll call it now...Cashman knows this and ultimately wins the Quintana sweepstakes with Torres as the headliner.

 

[The Beast]

Hahn has already said due to market demand or lack thereof, trading away assets for the rebuild could take the rest of this year. I think Frazier is gone by the deadline and if Melky hits like Melky he might be too. That leaves Robertson which if he pitches well could be gone by the deadline or next winter. Bottom line is Hahn can't force teams to trade for the players he wants to trade.

 

I agree with on KW. If he was running the rebuild there probably would be a bit more out there but Hahn is extremsly quiet when it comes to leaking info.

Fair enough, where was RH quoted saying the first thing you said? (I trust that he said it.)

[bmags]

That's a good question to ask for all those so worried Q won't be worth anything if the Sox don't trade him in the next 24 hours.

How much ddi the ultimate package for Sale and/or Eaton deteriorate by the White Sox not trading either of them a year sooner?

 

I am with you, Sale's, I am not guessing much if anything at all, and Eaton's certainly went up. There is a limit on what teams will give up. TOR guys with 4 years or even 3 years of cheap control are hardly ever traded. One reason is because either teams don't have the prospects, or they have to give up so many. Q is in that boat. He will be at just about max price if they wait another year as long as he performs and is healthy.

 

So I think there is a reasonable counterfactual that Sale's return may have diminished if you factor in knowledge of continued elevated performance of Turner/Bregman/Benintendi/Swanson and a wild card like Gary Sanchez.

 

The great timing about last year included the 2015 draft featuring teams like the Astros and Red Sox in the top ten selecting good college hitters when they both expected playoff contention the next year.

 

We got Moncada, and that's amazing. You don't see 70 scored prospects moved much. So I'm happy as hell. For instance, Dave Cameron yesterday said if Otani came over today he'd still be rated behind Moncada.

 

But I do think packages like Giolito/Turner or Moncada/Benintendi would have been more likely than this offseason when those players had played their way in.

 

The Astros, of course, may have always valued Bregman this high.

 

So I guess if you really like some of these headliners like Albies/Tucker/Meadows/etc, then you should get them while they may be attainable. But if you think this crop isn't crazy and would rather follow a fast riser in July, I guess go do that.

 

But a lot of top ten prospects happened to be on contending teams as surplus, it was an interesting time that probably closed for a bit.

[OmarComing25]

So I think there is a reasonable counterfactual that Sale's return may have diminished if you factor in knowledge of continued elevated performance of Turner/Bregman/Benintendi/Swanson and a wild card like Gary Sanchez.

 

The great timing about last year included the 2015 draft featuring teams like the Astros and Red Sox in the top ten selecting good college hitters when they both expected playoff contention the next year.

 

We got Moncada, and that's amazing. You don't see 70 scored prospects moved much. So I'm happy as hell. For instance, Dave Cameron yesterday said if Otani came over today he'd still be rated behind Moncada.

 

But I do think packages like Giolito/Turner or Moncada/Benintendi would have been more likely than this offseason when those players had played their way in.

 

The Astros, of course, may have always valued Bregman this high.

 

So I guess if you really like some of these headliners like Albies/Tucker/Meadows/etc, then you should get them while they may be attainable. But if you think this crop isn't crazy and would rather follow a fast riser in July, I guess go do that.

 

But a lot of top ten prospects happened to be on contending teams as surplus, it was an interesting time that probably closed for a bit.

I think it was Eric Longenhagen who said that, and he is Fangraphs main prospect guy, so coming from him that makes it even better.

[BlackSox13]

Fair enough, where was RH quoted saying the first thing you said? (I trust that he said it.)

Sure, here ya go.

 

“There may not be anything else until after the holidays or through the trade deadline or into next offseason. We’re taking a longer-term view, and we’re going to do this deliberately and with reason and logic and react accordingly with the market.”

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-white-so...ing-force-thing

[bmags]

I think it was Eric Longenhagen who said that, and he is Fangraphs main prospect guy, so coming from him that makes it even better.

 

You are right, it was him. I was pretty pumped to read that.

[beck72]

I'm in the faction that the Sox shouldn't trade Q for less than his value. That sours the market for future deals. Hahn should stick with his guns and get the players that he has targeted. If teams don't meet that price now, it doesn't mean they won't at the deadline or next offseason. Q would still have 3 years left. But making a deal just to make one would probably net prospects that wouldn't pan out. I want the headliner to be a blue chip, can't miss guy, with other pieces that may also be big contributors. Q is worth that. Right now, no team seems to want to include one.

[beck72]

Holding onto Q and having him the Sox #1 starter actually may increase his value. It won't help his W-L record. But it might be more palatable to teams to explain to their fan base he's closer to a #1 than a mid rotation guy that many fans from other teams are talking up Q as.

[Panerista]

Holding onto Q and having him the Sox #1 starter actually may increase his value. It won't help his W-L record. But it might be more palatable to teams to explain to their fan base he's closer to a #1 than a mid rotation guy that many fans from other teams are talking up Q as.

No one cares about the W-L stat for pitchers, but the rest I agree with.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

No one cares about the W-L stat for pitchers, but the rest I agree with.

While I feel the same way as you, this is simply not true. There will always be someone who faults a pitcher because their win/loss record.

[Panerista]

While I feel the same way as you, this is simply not true. There will always be someone who faults a pitcher because their win/loss record.

That's a fair assessment. I doubt many of the better GMs and teams are among the people who worry about pitching wins, but you're certainly right that some people do care.

[Special K]

If the market is not there, just hold on to him. I actually wouldn't mind holding on to him and letting him be the anchor of our rotation for years to come and focusing on offense from here forward.

 

He's 27 right now. He will be good when he's 29 - when we expect to compete. He's not a FA until 31 (if his options are purchased) and when we will still be competing. He can still very well be very good during those years. Given his style of pitching, he may be very good from years 31-34.

 

Having him anchor our rotation for the future is a much more ideal situation than dealing him for a ton of B level prospects and hoping 2 of those B level prospects become above average everyday MLB players such that we "win" the trade.

 

Can't trade him out of fear he declines, especially when he's shown no indication.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

If the market is not there, just hold on to him. I actually wouldn't mind holding on to him and letting him be the anchor of our rotation for years to come and focusing on offense from here forward.

 

He's 27 right now. He will be good when he's 29 - when we expect to compete. He's not a FA until 31 (if his options are purchased) and when we will still be competing. He can still very well be very good during those years. Given his style of pitching, he may be very good from years 31-34.

 

Having him anchor our rotation for the future is a much more ideal situation than dealing him for a ton of B level prospects and hoping 2 of those B level prospects become above average everyday MLB players such that we "win" the trade.

 

Can't trade him out of fear he declines, especially when he's shown no indication.

 

Unless you have a crystal ball, you cannot say with absolute certainty he will be a good pitcher when he's 29. John Danks is a prime example. Hell, Giolito, Kopeck, and/or Lopez could all blow their arms out over the course of the next 2 years.

 

Keeping Quintana to be an anchor in the rotation in anticipation for *if* the Sox can compete come 2019-20 is just a bad idea. Sox need to be focusing on acquiring as much talent as they can either by trade or draft. You can't keep players on the off-chance they might help you compete before their contract runs out. The only players I would say have an exception regarding this is Anderson and Rodon because both are under team control for a very long time.

[Saufley]

If the market is not there, just hold on to him. I actually wouldn't mind holding on to him and letting him be the anchor of our rotation for years to come and focusing on offense from here forward.

 

He's 27 right now. He will be good when he's 29 - when we expect to compete. He's not a FA until 31 (if his options are purchased) and when we will still be competing. He can still very well be very good during those years. Given his style of pitching, he may be very good from years 31-34.

 

Having him anchor our rotation for the future is a much more ideal situation than dealing him for a ton of B level prospects and hoping 2 of those B level prospects become above average everyday MLB players such that we "win" the trade.

 

Can't trade him out of fear he declines, especially when he's shown no indication.

 

You nailed it! All Hahn has to do now is say to the press what you just said and watch the Astros, Pirates, etc. come a calling.

 

[ptatc]

Unless you have a crystal ball, you cannot say with absolute certainty he will be a good pitcher when he's 29. John Danks is a prime example. Hell, Giolito, Kopeck, and/or Lopez could all blow their arms out over the course of the next 2 years.

 

Keeping Quintana to be an anchor in the rotation in anticipation for *if* the Sox can compete come 2019-20 is just a bad idea. Sox need to be focusing on acquiring as much talent as they can either by trade or draft. You can't keep players on the off-chance they might help you compete before their contract runs out. The only players I would say have an exception regarding this is Anderson and Rodon because both are under team control for a very long time.

If this is the case, then all the more reason to keep Q. If the others blow out their arms the sox will need Q if they are going to be any good in 2 years.

[pablo]

If this is the case, then all the more reason to keep Q. If the others blow out their arms the sox will need Q if they are going to be any good in 2 years.

 

Definitely have to disagree with you. Like ptatc was saying, there is no reason for the Sox to have a firm "we have to be good again by X date". Rebuilds do not have a timetable, rather you acquire as many good assets as you can and hope they come together at a certain point. Keeping Q just in case Sox are good in 2019 is probably the wrong mindset. There is simply no way to expect when they could contend again, especially so early in the rebuild