Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week

[BlackSox13]

Well Reed was pretty hopeless, there's definitely reason to be down on him.

Reed hit well in AAA before his callup and was the top 1B prospect going into the 2016 season. I see no reason to be down on a 23 year old with roughly 150 major league atbats. Plenty of players struggle when they move up.

 

Just my opinion but I think Reed would benefit playing on the rebuilding White Sox since there's no pressure to contend.

[Con te Giolito]

First of all - Martes+Tucker+Reed+Fischer does not equal Martes+Tucker+Paulino+ 2 absolute question marks. Paulino + 2 lottery ticket types doesn't equal Reed and Fischer.

 

Second of all - how in god's green earth do you know how the Astros value Archer vs. Q? Archer, by the way, is controlled for an additional year at ~$2M less on AAV basis. I personally like Q more than Archer, but I am not an unbiased bystander, and until 2017, their numbers were pretty similar in the previous 3 seasons. I don't think it is too wildly farfetched to think that the Astros value Archer higher than Q, and maybe my a sizable margin. Let's not forget that Archer was the AL start in the ASG in 2015, and to that point was widely considered one of the top RHP in the game.

 

You throw around way too many things like they're fact when you're just speculating. It is beyond annoying. Maybe RH is still trying to Bregman - who knows? You certainly don't. So stop acting like its gospel. I think that a Martes, Tucker, Reed and Fischer package hasn't been offeed, because if it had, those dude would be White Sox. And why do I think that? Because on a player for player basis, that trade rivals the Sale deal and bests the Eaton deal, which are actual fact.

OK dont get mad were talking about baseball. Calm.

 

I would say Paulino + 2 (not necessarily lottery tickets btw) is about equal to Reed and Fisher. Paulino is the Astros consensus third best prospect, him plus two guys is probably worth about what Reed after a down year and lower-ranked Fisher are combined. Fair comparison I think, no too off base.

 

Quintana has (a) better numbers (b) throws left handed © better injury history and (d) never had a major league ERA over 4. All of that is not outdone by Archer's sexier fastball or chump-change $2m AAV or year of extra control in 2022.

 

And when specific packages get reported by the media yes I can take some liberties with what I assume is on the table. If the Astros were willing to give up what they apparently offered Tampa they are likely coming to the White Sox with similar offers, that makes sense. There's nothing controversial about that.

 

Quintana is probably worth more than Adam Eaton also and no way does Tucker, Reed, Martes and Fisher beat the Sale deal.

 

Moncada >>> Tucker

Kopech >> Martes

Basabe =< Reed (razor close, Reed's stock is way down)

Diaz <<< Fisher

[ChiSox59]

OK dont get mad were talking about baseball. Calm.

 

1. I would say Paulino + 2 (not necessarily lottery tickets btw) is about equal to Reed and Fisher. Paulino is the Astros consensus third best prospect, him plus two guys is probably worth about what Reed after a down year and lower-ranked Fisher are combined. Fair comparison I think, no too off base.

 

2. Quintana has (a) better numbers (b) throws left handed © better injury history and (d) never had a major league ERA over 4. All of that is not outdone by Archer's sexier fastball or chump-change $2m AAV or year of extra control in 2022.

 

And when specific packages get reported by the media yes I can take some liberties with what I assume is on the table. If the Astros were willing to give up what they apparently offered Tampa they are likely coming to the White Sox with similar offers, that makes sense. There's nothing controversial about that.

 

3. Quintana is probably worth more than Adam Eaton also and no way does Tucker, Reed, Martes and Fisher beat the Sale deal.

 

4. Moncada >>> Tucker

Kopech >> Martes

Basabe =

Diaz

 

I am plenty calm. Just sick of reading your same BS over and over and over again.

 

#1) This is complete and total conjecture. Reed is no longer a prospect, but if he were, he would be in their top 3. This guy was the #2 prospect behind Bregman 12 months ago and a top 20 guy in the whole game. Sure, he had a brutal cup of coffee in the majors, but his value is not nearly as far in the s***ter as you make it out to be. And again - you're making the giant leaps of assumption. "Paulino + 2 is about equal to Reed and Fischer". How can you make that determination when you have zero clue what the +2 is? They could be 19 year old rookie ballers for all we know, and since the names weren't reported, it is far safer to assume they are closer to a throw in then a top 100 prospect.

 

#2) An extra year of control is a pretty big deal. A year ago, someone would have laughed at you had you said Q was more valuable that Archer. Archer is cheaper, controlled longer, and a far more dominating pitcher (career K/9 of 9.3 vs. 7.4). These are meaningful facts.

 

#3) I never said Tucker, Reed, Fischer, and Martes beats the Sale deal. I said it "rivals" the Sale deal, and beats the Eaton deal.

 

#4) LOL. Moncada is a far better prospect than Tucker, but the rest of the deal after the centerpieces, I like this made up Astros package far better. Kopech is maybe a tad better prospect that Martes, but certainly not ">>". These guys were just ranked #4 and #5 respectively on the updated RHP top 10. Its close to a wash, and while Kopech maybe has a higher upside, Martes is a safer bet and closer to the bigs. After that, the Astros deal is far better on the last 2 pieces. Your Basabe = Reed comparison made me laugh. Thanks for that. And Fischer is a legitimate OF prospect and Diaz is a complete and utter lottery ticket.

Edited January 20, 2017 by ChiSox59

[bmags]

I am plenty calm. Just sick of reading your same BS over and over and over again.

 

#1) This is complete and total conjecture. Reed is no longer a prospect, but if he were, he would be in their top 3. This guy was the #2 prospect behind Bregman 12 months ago and a top 20 guy in the whole game. Sure, he had a brutal cup of coffee in the majors, but his value is not nearly as far in the s***ter as you make it out to be. And again - you're making the giant leaps of assumption. "Paulino + 2 is about equal to Reed and Fischer". How can you make that determination when you have zero clue what the +2 is? They could be 19 year old rookie ballers for all we know, and since the names weren't reported, it is far safer to assume they are closer to a throw in then a top 100 prospect.

 

#2) An extra year of control is a pretty big deal. A year ago, someone would have laughed at you had you said Q was more valuable that Archer. Archer is 5 years younger, he is cheaper, and controlled longer. These are meaningful facts.

 

#3) I never said Tucker, Reed, Fischer, and Martes beats the Sale deal. I said it "rivals" the Sale deal, and beats the Eaton deal.

 

#4) LOL. Moncada is a far better prospect than Tucker, but the rest of the deal after those two this made up Astros package is far better. Kopech is maybe a tad better prospect that Martes, but certainyl not ">>". These guys were just ranked #4 and #5 respectively on the updated RHP top 10. ITs close to a wash, and while Kopech maybe has a higher upside, Martes is a safer bet and closer to the bigs. And you Basabe = Reed comparison made me laugh. Thanks for that.

 

?

[ChiSox59]

?

 

Yah, I misspoke there on the age. But the point still remains.

[harfman77]

Reed hit well in AAA before his callup and was the top 1B prospect going into the 2016 season. I see no reason to be down on a 23 year old with roughly 150 major league atbats. Plenty of players struggle when they move up.

 

Just my opinion but I think Reed would benefit playing on the rebuilding White Sox since there's no pressure to contend.

 

I have a lot of interest in Reed as a buy low candidate in a Q package. I think he still has a chance to be at least an everyday guy with the All-Star upside.

 

Martes - Tucker - Reed - Laureano would be the package I would shoot for, three close to MLB pieces with at least second division starter floors and a high upside guy in Tucker. It doesn't touch the Astros roster this year or affect their ability to compete over the next couple seasons and gives the Sox another good arm to add to the death star.

[Con te Giolito]

Yea I dont know if that was "misspeaking".

[ChiSox59]

Yea I dont know if that was "misspeaking".

 

Great response.

[SCCWS]

Changing the topic for just a minute, I feel like if the Sox were going to go the bolded route, they would have actually signed some guys. They've let some pretty decent bats go off the market for dirt cheap. Colby Rasmus would have been nice on this team at $5M + incentives if they were planning to try to compete this year. The Sox would be mentioned more with the DH types on the market. They wouldn't be going into the season with Avi/Liriano at the top of the RF depth chart. They'd be looking at a guy like Hammel.

 

At this point, I think its pretty obvious that the Sox are planning to let Melky and Frazier have a couple months to rake, move them for what they can, and then field a down to the studs starting lineup. That to me doesn't scream a team doing a half assed rebuild. Not trading Quintana prior to Feb 1 doesn't change that.

 

Melky had a very good year last year. I am not sure why he didn't get moved yet, but I think there is a decent chance his value drops. Hopefully he puts up good numbers the first half and has value at the deadline but he is 32 and we could also see a decline as well.

 

[ChiSox59]

Melky had a very good year last year. I am not sure why he didn't get moved yet, but I think there is a decent chance his value drops. Hopefully he puts up good numbers the first half and has value at the deadline but he is 32 and we could also see a decline as well.

 

He is due $15M. That's the problem. He'll be much easier to move next summer.

[steveno89]

I am plenty calm. Just sick of reading your same BS over and over and over again.

 

#1) This is complete and total conjecture. Reed is no longer a prospect, but if he were, he would be in their top 3. This guy was the #2 prospect behind Bregman 12 months ago and a top 20 guy in the whole game. Sure, he had a brutal cup of coffee in the majors, but his value is not nearly as far in the s***ter as you make it out to be. And again - you're making the giant leaps of assumption. "Paulino + 2 is about equal to Reed and Fischer". How can you make that determination when you have zero clue what the +2 is? They could be 19 year old rookie ballers for all we know, and since the names weren't reported, it is far safer to assume they are closer to a throw in then a top 100 prospect.

 

#2) An extra year of control is a pretty big deal. A year ago, someone would have laughed at you had you said Q was more valuable that Archer. Archer is cheaper, controlled longer, and a far more dominating pitcher (career K/9 of 9.3 vs. 7.4). These are meaningful facts.

 

#3) I never said Tucker, Reed, Fischer, and Martes beats the Sale deal. I said it "rivals" the Sale deal, and beats the Eaton deal.

 

#4) LOL. Moncada is a far better prospect than Tucker, but the rest of the deal after the centerpieces, I like this made up Astros package far better. Kopech is maybe a tad better prospect that Martes, but certainly not ">>". These guys were just ranked #4 and #5 respectively on the updated RHP top 10. Its close to a wash, and while Kopech maybe has a higher upside, Martes is a safer bet and closer to the bigs. After that, the Astros deal is far better on the last 2 pieces. Your Basabe = Reed comparison made me laugh. Thanks for that. And Fischer is a legitimate OF prospect and Diaz is a complete and utter lottery ticket.

 

Seems like there is a 1% chance of Archer getting traded

 

I think the Rays would require a Turner / Bregman / Swanson / Benintendi / Moncada level prospect to even go beyond initial discussions

[Eminor3rd]

He is due $15M. That's the problem. He'll be much easier to move next summer.

 

And he gives a ton of his offensive value back on defense. OF defense appears to be valued highly this offseason.

[ChiSox59]

Seems like there is a 1% chance of Archer getting traded

 

I think the Rays would require a Turner / Bregman / Swanson / Benintendi / Moncada level prospect to even go beyond initial discussions

 

Ageeed completely. Was debating the rumored Astros package for Archer does not mean they'll turn and off that for Quintana, Plus's add Reed and Fischer as the +2.

[Con te Giolito]

Seems like there is a 1% chance of Archer getting traded

 

I think the Rays would require a Turner / Bregman / Swanson / Benintendi / Moncada level prospect to even go beyond initial discussions

I don't know why they turned down that offer from the Astros.

 

[fathom]

I don't know why they turned down that offer from the Astros.

 

Because Tucker is not nearly as good as you think he is

[Con te Giolito]

Because Tucker is not nearly as good as you think he is

Nor is Archer

[Bob Sacamano]

I don't know why they turned down that offer from the Astros.

 

They have him for 5 more years and they're not looking to trade him yet. They're not rebuilding.

Edited January 20, 2017 by soxfan2014

[fathom]

Nor is Archer

 

Based off last year? Same year he had a better xFIP than Sale?

[fathom]

To me, the biggest reason Hahn is in no rush to trade Q is the org loves his attitude and they think his stuff will age well. Basically he's the anti-Sale

[Con te Giolito]

They have him for 5 more years and they're not looking to trade him yet. They're not rebuilding.

Archer could very easily already be declining this five years thing that everyone makes such a fuss over is really not that important. It'd be one thing if Archer was coming off his best season yet as a 24 year old but he's 28 and coming off his worst season. He's not bad, but a TOR starter he is not.

 

Whatever I'm glad the Rays are doing whatever it is they are doing because it preserves the market for Quintana. Astros took their best shot at Archer and came up short, let the Rays loss be the Sox gain.

Edited January 20, 2017 by Con te Giolito

[BlackSox13]

Melky had a very good year last year. I am not sure why he didn't get moved yet, but I think there is a decent chance his value drops. Hopefully he puts up good numbers the first half and has value at the deadline but he is 32 and we could also see a decline as well.

Better and cheaper options are available than Melky. The Yanks, Astros and Rockies have a gluttony of out fielders available.

[steveno89]

I don't know why they turned down that offer from the Astros.

 

If I am the Rays, there is no way I deal 5 seasons of Archer for Martes + Tucker + Paulino ++

 

None of those prospects are truly elite in my eyes

 

Archer is dirt cheap for the next 5 seasons. He is not the type of player you trade for anything less than a Moncada/Swanson/Benintendi/Bregman/Turner level headliner plus alot more

[BlackSox13]

I have a lot of interest in Reed as a buy low candidate in a Q package. I think he still has a chance to be at least an everyday guy with the All-Star upside.

 

Martes - Tucker - Reed - Laureano would be the package I would shoot for, three close to MLB pieces with at least second division starter floors and a high upside guy in Tucker. It doesn't touch the Astros roster this year or affect their ability to compete over the next couple seasons and gives the Sox another good arm to add to the death star.

With Houston I'm thinking along the lines of 1) Martes/Tucker/Reed/Fisher 2) Martes/Tucker/Reed/Stubbs and Laureano or Martin 3) Tucker/Whitley/Reed/Fisher/Stubbs.

 

Those are the packages that interest me most but admittedly have no clue iany of those are close or if the Sox Astros would be interested in such proposals. More me thinking out loud more than anything.

[FT35]

Archer could very easily already be declining this five years thing that everyone makes such a fuss over is really not that important. It'd be one thing if Archer was coming off his best season yet as a 24 year old but he's 28 and coming off his worst season. He's not bad, but a TOR starter he is not.

 

Whatever I'm glad the Rays are doing whatever it is they are doing because it preserves the market for Quintana. Astros took their best shot at Archer and came up short, let the Rays loss be the Sox gain.

 

Hmmm...I may disagree with you that Archer isn't a TOR starter. Maybe not for Boston, but he would be for most teams. Can see him as a #1 in some cases, a solid 2 in most cases, no lower than a 3.

[caulfield12]

Let's go back to 2004. Nobody in baseball expected Jose Contreras to become the best pitcher in baseball over a 4-5 month span in 2005-06, least of all Brian Cashman.

 

Values are always changing or realigning on a yearly basis.

 

But Chris Archer has the repertoire that checks off all the boxes for scouts, with the right pitching coach, a shot of confidence or just a few small tweaks, there's no reason to assume he will never be be a TOR pitcher again.

Edited January 20, 2017 by caulfield12