Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week

[reiks12]

I would take that deal. Depending on who is doing the evaluation, Glasnow's stock has taken quite a bit of a hit as he has not been able to develop command of the strike zone. Giolito has the same concerns which caused him to slip from being the #1 pitching prospect in baseball. Keller has #2 or three upside and has just started blowing up a lot safer bet than Glasnow to make it as a starter.

 

Rodon had a 4.6 BB/9 as a 22 year old.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Exactly

 

No way the Pirates offer up 5 top 15 prospects for one player

 

3 or 4 tops

 

The Pirates would be destroying their future with that proposal

 

 

If the Pirates aren't willing to include Meadows or Bell, I don't think Hahn would do it for less than Glasnow, Keller, Newman and something else. I'd take Glasnow, Keller, Newman, and Hayes instantly. That's 4 top 100 prospects.

[Quin]

Q would be in Pittsburgh if this offer was on the table.

 

That is the Pirates #2, #3, #4, #5 and Diaz is somewhere from #8-#12. This trade would make a top ten farm system a bottom third farm system.

 

This is where people saying they wouldn't take this are out of their mind.

[Chicago White Sox]

I really think if it came to it I'd be content telling Pirates they need to go depth if they're not including Meadows or Bell.

 

Something like Glasnow/Newman/Hayes/Diaz with the possibility of Keller would be a phenomenal deal.

 

Which tells me I'm looking at a deal that wouldn't be offered.

I'd do Glasnow/Keller/Newman/Hayes in a heartbeat, but it seems like a ridiculous ask IMO.

 

 

 

[steveno89]

Rodon had a 4.6 BB/9 as a 22 year old.

 

At the mlb level...not minors

 

Rodon was thrown into the fire quickly without much minor league development. Glasnow has spent far more time in the minors and the control regressed last season to over 5.2 BB/9 in the minors

 

While Glasnow posted an impressive 1.87 ERA in the minors, his FIP was 2.93 in 2016. Still very good, but over a full run higher than his ERA.

 

I like him alot as a prospect, but the free passes will burn him big time at the MLB level

[Bob Sacamano]

This thread needs a new tweet...either teams are close to a deal or teams are backing off and waiting to discuss a deal at a later date.

 

Edit: I predicted that there will possibly be a deal done by Wednesday/Thursday using Soxfest as an unofficial deadline.

Edited January 24, 2017 by soxfan2014

[steveno89]

I'd do Glasnow/Keller/Newman/Hayes in a heartbeat, but it seems like a ridiculous ask IMO.

 

I'd take that as well, Diaz is not even necessary

 

Most I can see them offering (unless they cave on Meadows and/or Bell) is Glasnow + Keller + Newman or Hayes + one lower level prospect

[Bob Sacamano]

Like someone mentioned yesterday, if they don't offer Meadows or Bell, I would counter-offer with 4 of their best prospects excluding the 2 mentioned plus their competitive balance pick.

Edited January 24, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Chicago White Sox]

That is exactly what the Pirates are hoping for

 

Get the Sox to move off of the true top tier guys in their system like Bell and Meadows, and onto lesser prospects

 

Hahn needs to see through this and hold strong by insisting on Meadows + Glasnow/Keller + Newman/Bell/Hayes

I'm not sure how you can call Bell a "true top tier guy" but not include Glasnow. You may not be high on Glasnow, but a recent poll of GMs ranked him the 2nd best pitching prospect in the game. He may not fit our needs, but he'd almost universally be considered a top tier guy by most experts and held in higher regard than Bell. Also, I think your asks above are completely unrealistic. I'd expect much lesser secondary pieces if Meadows was the headliner.

[steveno89]

I'm not sure how you can call Bell a "true top tier guy" but not include Glasnow. You may not be high on Glasnow, but a recent poll of GMs ranked him the 2nd best pitching prospect in the game. He may not fit our needs, but he'd almost universally be considered a top tier guy by most experts and held in higher regard than Bell. Also, I think your asks above are completely unrealistic. I'd expect much lesser secondary pieces if Meadows was the headliner.

 

Acquiring Quintana is one thing, getting value in return for his extremely valuable contract is another

 

The cost to sign a free agent starter like Quintana on the open market is likely +$25 million per year

 

Glasnow is top tier, albeit with a considerable amount of risk due to contol issues. He could be a really good reliever, but will be given the opportunity to start.

 

The fact that the Pirates seem to want to include him big time vs. Bell and Meadows should really tell you something. If they were that confident that he would pan out there is no way they would trade him when he could be under cheap control for years.

 

I'd love to add Glasnow to our system as a high ceiling starter, but even moreso as the second piece along with Meadows

 

Meadows + Glasnow + one to two more pieces would be a great deal for the Sox and allow for the Pirates to keep guys like Bell/Newman/Keller/etc

[steveno89]

I'm not sure how you can call Bell a "true top tier guy" but not include Glasnow. You may not be high on Glasnow, but a recent poll of GMs ranked him the 2nd best pitching prospect in the game. He may not fit our needs, but he'd almost universally be considered a top tier guy by most experts and held in higher regard than Bell. Also, I think your asks above are completely unrealistic. I'd expect much lesser secondary pieces if Meadows was the headliner.

 

Bell from the standpoint of his bat is legit

 

He can flat out hit for average and draw walks. The power is coming along as well. He should be a middle of the order bat for the foreseeable future for the Pirates.

 

The Sox could use a guy like that at 1B or DH, but doubtful Pittsburgh would include him as they need him to start at 1B this season

[steveno89]

I'm not sure how you can call Bell a "true top tier guy" but not include Glasnow. You may not be high on Glasnow, but a recent poll of GMs ranked him the 2nd best pitching prospect in the game. He may not fit our needs, but he'd almost universally be considered a top tier guy by most experts and held in higher regard than Bell. Also, I think your asks above are completely unrealistic. I'd expect much lesser secondary pieces if Meadows was the headliner.

 

Dooduh: Let’s try this again…. why would Glasnow + Bell + 3rd prospect not be enough for the ChiSox to pull the trigger for Quintana? That is a strong package and there’s little reason to believe they are getting any more than that… and holding him accepts risk of poor performance impairing his value. They are not going to get Meadows by holding out any longer. This has to be just a matter of time, no..?

 

 

Dave Cameron: I think Pirates fans are a lot higher on Glasnow than non-Pirates fans. The command is terrible and the stuff isn’t that special. He’s not good enough to be the primary piece in a Quintana trade.

 

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs explains why Glasnow is not good enough to be the main headliner in a Quintana deal here

[bighurt574]

The fact that the Pirates seem to want to include him big time vs. Bell and Meadows should really tell you something. If they were that confident that he would pan out there is no way they would trade him when he could be under cheap control for years.

 

That's really the problem with any prospect trade. Teams generally know their own prospects pretty well. I forget where, but there was a column a month or two back (probably right after the Sale/Eaton deals) comparing top prospects who were traded and those who weren't. The former didn't fair nearly as well in the long run, as you'd probably expect. There are obviously exceptions. Teams can certainly give up a young guy they really like if the return is worth it.

[steveno89]

That's really the problem with any prospect trade. Teams generally know their own prospects pretty well. I forget where, but there was a column a month or two back (probably right after the Sale/Eaton deals) comparing top prospects who were traded and those who weren't. The former didn't fair nearly as well in the long run, as you'd probably expect. There are obviously exceptions. Teams can certainly give up a young guy they really like if the return is worth it.

 

http://piratesbreakdown.com/2017/01/19/pit...lasnow-bullpen/

 

That is concerning to see as well^

 

Glasnow's changeup is currently below average and the control is a big concern. Dave Cameron suggests his stuff is not that special and the control is terrible.

 

If the Sox liked him that much a deal would already be worked out for Quintana.

[southsider2k5]

Rodon had a 4.6 BB/9 as a 22 year old.

 

So his BB/9 was about half a walk less, and that was at the major league level, and not the minors.

[steveno89]

So his BB/9 was about half a walk less, and that was at the major league level, and not the minors.

 

Rodon's scouting report has always been 50 grade control, which he really improved upon in 2016...Glasnow is nearly the same age and regressed in 2016

 

Whereas Glasnow is 40/45 grade at best control

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Rodon's scouting report has always been 50 grade control, which he really improved upon in 2016...Glasnow is nearly the same age and regressed in 2016

 

Whereas Glasnow is 40/45 grade at best control

 

And that is with Rodon getting shoved through the minors in about an hour and a half. If Rodon had taken the typical tour de minors, he would have put up some disgusting numbers against true minor league talent.

[Harry Chappas]

And that is with Rodon getting shoved through the minors in about an hour and a half. If Rodon had taken the typical tour de minors, he would have put up some disgusting numbers against true minor league talent.

 

I wish they would have been slower with Rodon and Anderson.

[steveno89]

I wish they would have been slower with Rodon and Anderson.

 

Rodon would not have needed much time in the minors before he would clearly be ready to take his lumps at the mlb level

 

I really think this is the season that Carlos breaks out and establishes himself

 

 

[Con te Giolito]

Rodon was drafted and signed because of an agreement between the Sox and Boras to get Rodon to the majors ASAP.

[reiks12]

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs explains why Glasnow is not good enough to be the main headliner in a Quintana deal here

 

Dave Cameron also stated that Quintana would be a minor inprovement to the Astros rotation.

[steveno89]

Rodon was drafted and signed because of an agreement between the Sox and Boras to get Rodon to the majors ASAP.

 

Touching on Quintana, and then Rodon:

 

The more I look at Quintana's stats and contract, the more I completely understand his lofty pricetag.

 

Undoubtedly he is a top 20 mlb starting pitcher, which rarely get traded. Couple that with such a team friendly contract, anything less than an overwhelming prospect return should be turned down. Obvious? Yes, but we need to be patient and insist on the high pricetag.

 

We all want this rebuild to move along quickly, but we have to recognize that tossing us a few top 100 prospects (while keeping the cream of the crop off the table) plus some lottery tickets is not fair value for Quintana.

 

On Rodon:

 

Second half stat splits do not always carry over, but in a young pitcher those splits can be more instructive. Rodon pitched 73 innings in the second half posting a 3.45 ERA, 9.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. Unsurprisingly, his home run rate (0.99) and BABIP against (.303) normalized. If that was the beginning of what kind of pitcher Rodon is going to be now, we are looking at No. 2 starter ceiling.

[Eminor3rd]

Dave Cameron also stated that Quintana would be a minor inprovement to the Astros rotation.

 

No, he didn't.

 

He said that, relative to cost (specifically referencing the glut of FA corner OF bats that was sitill available at the time), the Astros may benefit more from a high-end corner outfielder than they would a high-end SP, especially since he was able to dig up some peripherals that made a McHugh bounceback look promising.

 

This site LOVES to hate writers.

[Rowand44]

This site LOVES to hate writers.

It's not a Soxtalk thing, it's a sports fan thing.

[Quin]

It's not a Soxtalk thing, it's a sports fan thing.

 

It's an everyone thing.