Chicago White Sox Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 (edited) QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 07:23 AM) I think something like Tucker, Martes, 3rd piece, 75th pick is fair. I'm not sure Rick Hahn agrees or this would probably be done. I agree that would be fair, but the newest rumor suggests Martes is off the table. Just not sure what to believe anymore with Luhnow, because he seems like the type of GM who would likely overvalue his prospects. But to your point, I would hope Hahn would have taken that deal already as long as the 3rd piece was pretty solid. Edited January 31, 2017 by Chicago White Sox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 07:36 AM) I agree that would be fair, but the newest rumor suggests Martes is off the table. Just not sure what to believe anymore with Luhnow, because he seems like the type of GM who would likely overvalue his prospects. But to your point, I would hope Hahn would have taken that deal already as long as the 3rd piece was pretty solid. There's no way Martes is off the table. That's a load of crap. He was offered for Archer. I talked to some Astros fans and they think that Archer thing was a leak and Astros prefer Quintana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 07:23 AM) I think something like Tucker, Martes, 3rd piece, 75th pick is fair. I'm not sure Rick Hahn agrees or this would probably be done. Unless the 3rd piece is good, I'm not too fond of this offer. I think the Sox could do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 07:59 AM) Unless the 3rd piece is good, I'm not too fond of this offer. I think the Sox could do better. Yeah that's fair. It probably requires waiting until the trade deadline though. It also depends what the Sox actually think of Tucker and Martes. They may think Tucker never develops the power others think he can. They may not love Martes for some reason. We really have no idea. Those are clearly the Astros top 2 chips though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveno89 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 (edited) QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 07:59 AM) Unless the 3rd piece is good, I'm not too fond of this offer. I think the Sox could do better. The 75th overall pick is a complete crapshoot and nowhere near as valuable as a competitive balance pick right after the first round I would decline a Martes, Tucker + 75th overall pick in a heartbeat on a surplus argument alone How do the Sox go from reportedly asking for Musgrove + Martes + Tucker to accepting the 75th overall pick instead of Musgrove?? Massive value difference there Edited January 31, 2017 by steveno89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:09 AM) The 75th overall pick is a complete crapshoot and nowhere near as valuable as a competitive balance pick right after the first round I would decline a Martes, Tucker + 75th overall pick in a heartbeat on a surplus argument alone How do the Sox go from reportedly asking for Musgrove + Martes + Tucker to accepting the 75th overall pick instead of Musgrove?? Massive value difference there Agreed. There is absolutely no way the Sox can count on that pick as being a big part of the return. There's no guarantee they would get who they'd want in that spot. If the pick is a throw-in or deal sweetener? Then sure. But it can't be such a crucial part of the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:09 AM) The 75th overall pick is a complete crapshoot and nowhere near as valuable as a competitive balance pick right after the first round I would decline a Martes, Tucker + 75th overall pick in a heartbeat on a surplus argument alone How do the Sox go from reportedly asking for Musgrove + Martes + Tucker to accepting the 75th overall pick instead of Musgrove?? Massive value difference there I never said the Sox should trade Q for Martes, Tucker, and the 75th pick. Reading is hard though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Could the Astros theoretically trade the 56th pick they just got as well if they wanted to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:16 AM) Agreed. There is absolutely no way the Sox can count on that pick as being a big part of the return. There's no guarantee they would get who they'd want in that spot. If the pick is a throw-in or deal sweetener? Then sure. But it can't be such a crucial part of the deal. It absolutely can be the 4th piece. I'd rather give Hostetler the extra pick and the $800k to play with in the draft than a 4th piece equivalent to a Victor Diaz or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:18 AM) Could the Astros theoretically trade the 56th pick they just got as well if they wanted to? No. That's the Cardinals actual 2nd rounder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveno89 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:19 AM) No. That's the Cardinals actual 2nd rounder. From a surplus value standpoint, Quintana is worth roughly $133 million over the next 4 seasons Using fangraphs prospect surplus value as one way (not the only for sure) to evaluate prospect values Martes comes in at $39.00 million and Tucker comes in at $38.2 million for a total of $77 million. We are short easily 62 million in surplus value to make a deal happen I'd propose Martes + Tucker + Reed + Perez. Astros probably wouldn't do it, but it allows them to keep Paulino/Musgrove/Whitley/Fisher in their system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 07:51 AM) There's no way Martes is off the table. That's a load of crap. He was offered for Archer. I talked to some Astros fans and they think that Archer thing was a leak and Astros prefer Quintana. Well I hope you're right and honestly thought Luhnow would be high on Quintana given his focus on analytics. Having said that, I really thought a Quintana trade to the Astros would ultimately happen if no one else jumped in with substantial offers and I'm pretty surprised it's January 31st and Q is still on our roster. You would think if Luhnow was willing to give up Martes & Tucker he would have offered them by now and a deal would already be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:31 AM) From a surplus value standpoint, Quintana is worth roughly $133 million over the next 4 seasons Using fangraphs prospect surplus value as one way (not the only for sure) to evaluate prospect values Martes comes in at $39.00 million and Tucker comes in at $38.2 million for a total of $77 million. We are short easily 62 million in surplus value to make a deal happen I'd propose Martes + Tucker + Reed + Perez. Astros probably wouldn't do it, but it allows them to keep Paulino/Musgrove/Whitley/Fisher in their system That's 3 top 100 guys and Reed who was like a consensus top 30 last year. No chance they trade that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Would you guys do Martes, Tucker, Reed or Laureano, and the 75th pick in the draft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:33 AM) Well I hope you're right and honestly thought Luhnow would be high on Quintana given his focus on analytics. Having said that, I really thought a Quintana trade to the Astros would ultimately happen if no one else jumped in with substantial offers and I'm pretty surprised it's January 31st and Q is still on our roster. You would think if Luhnow was willing to give up Martes & Tucker he would have offered them by now and a deal would already be done. That's why I fear that Hahn is asking for more than that which is kind of nuts if actually wants to move Q. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoxfan Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 09:34 AM) That's 3 top 100 guys and Reed who was like a consensus top 30 last year. No chance they trade that much. Yeah three in the top 100, but no top 10-15 players like Moncada/Kopech. 3 guys in the 30-100 range is very different than 1 in the top 5, 1 in the top 15, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:31 AM) From a surplus value standpoint, Quintana is worth roughly $133 million over the next 4 seasons Using fangraphs prospect surplus value as one way (not the only for sure) to evaluate prospect values Martes comes in at $39.00 million and Tucker comes in at $38.2 million for a total of $77 million. We are short easily 62 million in surplus value to make a deal happen I'd propose Martes + Tucker + Reed + Perez. Astros probably wouldn't do it, but it allows them to keep Paulino/Musgrove/Whitley/Fisher in their system How did you calculate that surplus value? And how much of that is coming in 2017 & 2018 when's Quintanta's production will be completely worthless for us? We don't have break even in projected surplus value to come out and ahead here. Also, I think Jimmy's deal makes a lot of sense if you get a quality 3rd piece like Paulino, Reed, Fisher, etc. plus that compensation pick. That's a lot of talent and I am very skeptical you will ever do significantly better than that. I have a strong feeling that the international free agency rule changes will result in big market teams hoarding prospects moreso than they do currently. Prospect values will likely only increase from this point forward IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:36 AM) That's why I fear that Hahn is asking for more than that which is kind of nuts if actually wants to move Q. That's been my assumption all season. My concern is that he's asking for a Sale level headliner and that's just never going to happen IMO. Something between the Sale & Eaton packages should be the goal. And I think Martes & Tucker is about even with Giolito & Lopez in terms of headliners. Reed (if the Sox believe in him) + a compensation pick is better than Dunning as the secondary pieces. I honestly think that's a pretty fair deal for both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:35 AM) Would you guys do Martes, Tucker, Reed or Laureano, and the 75th pick in the draft? Yes. In a perfect world I'd like both Reed and Laureano but that probably won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:48 AM) Yeah three in the top 100, but no top 10-15 players like Moncada/Kopech. 3 guys in the 30-100 range is very different than 1 in the top 5, 1 in the top 15, etc You can't expect the Sale package for Quintana. Martes is ranked #20 & Tucker is ranked #35 by mlbpipeline. That's pretty close in value to Giolito (#12) & Lopez (#46), maybe even a little bit better. Reed was a highly regarded prospect just a year ago. If you believe in him, you're potentially getting middle of the lineup, left-handed hitter at a huge discount. The fact that he's major league ready is a huge plus, because we can actually give him a couple seasons to develop without putting undue pressure on him. The compensation pick is simply a bonus, but one that gives us more flexibility in the draft. And honestly, given how promising the early returns look from Nick Hostetler's first full draft, I'm willing to go ahead and invest in him with more picks whenever possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveno89 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:34 AM) That's 3 top 100 guys and Reed who was like a consensus top 30 last year. No chance they trade that much. I think the Sox should get somewhere between what Sale and Eaton returned, and neither Martes or Tucker are anywhere near the prospect Moncada is Kopech is roughly equal to the prospect value of Martes, possibly slightly more valuable at this point Moncada + Kopech > Martes + Tucker considerably. That means a third piece would have to be a significant prospect along the lines of Reed or Perez A 4th piece could be a lower level flyer Martes + Tucker + Reed/Perez + lower level flyer starts to move towards a deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I might be in the minority but I really like Ramon Laureano and hope he would be a piece in any Astros trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 10:30 AM) I think the Sox should get somewhere between what Sale and Eaton returned, and neither Martes or Tucker are anywhere near the prospect Moncada is Kopech is roughly equal to the prospect value of Martes, possibly slightly more valuable at this point Moncada + Kopech > Martes + Tucker considerably. That means a third piece would have to be a significant prospect along the lines of Reed or Perez A 4th piece could be a lower level flyer Martes + Tucker + Reed/Perez + lower level flyer starts to move towards a deal So after all that you agree with what I posted initially. Martes + Tucker + 3rd piece + 75th pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveno89 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 10:37 AM) So after all that you agree with what I posted initially. Martes + Tucker + 3rd piece + 75th pick. Only if the 3rd piece is of the AJ Reed or Franklin Perez caliber The draft pick does not do all that much for me. The chances a player pans out a #75 overall are probably about 5-10% chance at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I am not a big fan of the Astros top guys. I think Martes ends up in the pen, Paulino has too many injury concerns, and Tucker is just too far away to value at the level he is being valued. Fisher has too many holes in his game for his age with pitch recognition issues. I am much more interested in a depth based trade with Laureano, Perez, Reed, Cionel Perez, MiguealAngel Sierra, 75th pick. The pick really is more of a way to manipulate pool money for the Sox to give a guy who slips out of the first round equivalent money in the second round. Its a complete depth deal, with a ton of upside balanced with proximity in Reed and Laureano. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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