Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week

[ptatc]

Jose Quintana the pitcher is a commodity and like any commodity he is worth what the market will pay. If Coppopela, Luhnow, Huntington and Cashman are all not willing to meet Hahn's price then Hahn's price is too high. That is how a market works. I dont know how much more this has to be explained.

 

Compromise is an essential part of doing business and it is not shameful for the White Sox to meet a potential buyer somewhere in the middle for Quintana. Right now appears clear that Hahn is refusing to budge from outrageous demands, demands that wont be met now nor at the deadline nor next offseason. The risk of keeping Quintana for even spring training far outweighs any benefit. The deadline is not magic. It will not miraculously boost Quintana's value.

 

Its time for the Sox to quit dipping their toes in the pool and get on with the rebuild. Hahn has gone through his salesmanship and assembled interested parties, take the best offer and move on to dealing Frazier, Robertson and (if possible) Melky. That is what is best for the White Sox now.

The first part is exactly right.

 

i disagree with the second part. Q will still be under contract when the team is good again. If he is still around, the Sox will have a variety of pitchers to try to build a great pitching staff, then they can buy hitters because all of the pitchers will be at a very low cost.

[Con te Giolito]

The rumored package that Hahn wanted initially from the Astros was bad. If he has to accept even less than that, then shame on him. I feel like going over a month without a move has made a lot of people too anxious.

Musgrove, Tucker and Martes is an outstanding deal and I am not a Martes fan. If Musgrove were a prospect he would be right there with Lopez, Kopech and Giolito....he has such outstanding command on a good fastball, good slider and improving changeup. Tucker is a fantastic second piece and even if you dont like Martes he is a pretty killer way to round out a deal.

[hi8is]

PLEASE GOD MAKE IT STOP!!!!!!

[tray]

Why?

 

Explain to me why Hahn's perception of Quintana's value is wrong and Luhnow or Huntington's perception of Quintana's value is right?

 

Why should we compromise?

 

In regards to a barren pitching market, how many assets have you seen become available like Q before? Irregardless of how many other SP's might come on the market in the next 6-18 months, how many do you suppose will provide the surplus value that Quintana does, especially if teams aren't showing a willingness to liquidate their prospects for such assets? This notion that some influx of other reasonable arms coming on the market is somehow going to water down Quintana's market is pure horses***. You don't think those pitchers are truly available today, as potential tradeable assets rather than free agents? You don't think the Tigers would trade Verlander? It's not a question of a barren market, it's question of an asset being so valuable that teams are hesitant to liquidate assets for them.

 

That shouldn't cause us to lower our price. What that requires is patience. Finding the "right" buyer isn't always a fast process, but that buyer does exist. Hahn will find them.

 

Yes, you are right on the money. I get the thirst for trade rumors or trade news but this is a rebuild that is supposed to take 2-3 years, not 2-3 months. The Q trade is absolutely critical to this rebuild. I don't care if it takes until next off-season and I would take the risk of Q having a bad season given his proven durability. I don't see Detroit unloading Verlander for a basketful of prospects.

Remember, Theo got Addison Russell for Shark, a premier elite position player for a middle of rotation pitcher. Hahn has to win this trade and that requires patience.

Edited January 18, 2017 by miracleon35th

[Con te Giolito]

I hate to break it to you, but that is not how a market works. Jose Quintana is not a fungible good or a widget. He is not a barrel of oil or a bail of hay or a megawatt of electricity or a british thermal unit of natural gas. He is a unique and rare asset and sometimes such assets require time to find the right buyer. Such an asset necessarily is expensive and thus the number of buyers is lower than less expensive assets.

 

There is no rush here. There is only impatience.

Jose Quintana is 200 very solid, occasionally brilliant, left-handed innings. His WAR slightly overrates him, though he is obviously not an overrated player around the league.

 

He is not Chris Sale. He is not a potential hall of famer nor generational talent. He is not particularly unique or rare, there are Jose Quintana's in the league every year going back forever. Maybe not a giant pile of them, but there have always been guys pitching as well as Jose Quintana has pitched for the White Sox. This isn't meant to disparage or belittle how good Q has been, its just an honest appraisal of him. He's still a fantastic pitcher who just turned 28 and figures to keep doing what he's been doing. Jose Quintana's are the locomotives that drive a team to a division championship.

 

The contract is not as important as people make it out to be. Its nice, it definitely helps more than it hurts, but really its only a deal breaker to the real cheap franchises like Pittsburgh and you've seen how incredibly frustrating their cowardice to step up and make a move for fear of being wrong they can be. The teams willing to give up prospects for Quintana are giving up prospects for Quintana so he can help them win their divisions this year and next year*. If he comes cheaper that's great.

 

*this also hampers his deadline value because teams are going to want the 120 IP he'll have accumulated by the team the deadline rolls around.

[caulfield12]

Yes, you are right on the money. I get the thirst for trade rumors or trade news but this is a rebuild that is supposed to take 2-3 years, not 2-3 months. The Q trade is absolutely critical to this rebuild. I don't care if it takes until next off-season and I would take the risk of Q having a bad season given his proven durability. I don't see Detroit unloading Verlander for a basketful of prospects.

Remember, Theo got Addison Russell for Shark, a premier elite position player for a middle of rotation pitcher. Hahn has to win this trade and that requires patience.

 

Except holding onto him for 2017 probably pushes our 1st round draft pick in 2018 to #6-8 from #3-5.

 

Not a deal breaker, but the closer you get to the Top 5 and especially Top 3, the better off you TRADITIONALLY are (waits as everyone throws out the names Aiken/Kolek/Appel, etc.) from a future WAR standpoint.

 

Plus, the odds are pretty darned high we're going after a collegiate hitter again...so the odds of a complete miss there are noticeably lower.

[iamshack]

Jose Quintana is 200 very solid, occasionally brilliant, left-handed innings. His WAR slightly overrates him, though he is obviously not an overrated player around the league.

 

He is not Chris Sale. He is not a potential hall of famer nor generational talent. He is not particularly unique or rare, there are Jose Quintana's in the league every year going back forever. Maybe not a giant pile of them, but there have always been guys pitching as well as Jose Quintana has pitched for the White Sox. This isn't meant to disparage or belittle how good Q has been, its just an honest appraisal of him. He's still a fantastic pitcher who just turned 28 and figures to keep doing what he's been doing. Jose Quintana's are the locomotives that drive a team to a division championship.

 

The contract is not as important as people make it out to be. Its nice, it definitely helps more than it hurts, but really its only a deal breaker to the real cheap franchises like Pittsburgh and you've seen how incredibly frustrating their cowardice to step up and make a move for fear of being wrong they can be. The teams willing to give up prospects for Quintana are giving up prospects for Quintana so he can help them win their divisions this year and next year*. If he comes cheaper that's great.

 

*this also hampers his deadline value because teams are going to want the 120 IP he'll have accumulated by the team the deadline rolls around.

Jose suffers from knowing how to pitch so well that he makes it look ordinary and effortless. He convinces you that anyone can do what he does. The reality is there are maybe 15 guys in all of baseball who pitch as many innings he does every year with the kind of results that he does. You are right in saying he is a locomotive that drives a team to a division championship. How many of those locomotives hit the market? How many of them hit the market with 4 years of control for less than $10 million/year?

 

You are selling Jose Quintana short, and you're selling him short because he isn't flashy. No, he isn't Chris Sale. But he produces results like Chris Sale without looking like he's trying nearly as hard.

 

I believe it was the Braves' GM who mentioned he's not Chris Sale as well.

 

This is the trap these teams would like us to fall into. To be convinced that the outs Quintana records are somehow less valuable than the outs Chris Sale records because they don't come via 96 mph fastballs or 91 mph sliders. But the bottom line is, an out is an out is an out, and Quintana has shown he can record outs with just about the same effectiveness as a man with a vastly more impressive to the eye repertoire.

 

Guess what? I give zero f***s what it looks like to my eye. I care about what the results are.

 

Hahn is correctly not falling victim to this line of bulls*** and is holding out to get appropriate value for an extremely rare asset because there simply is no reason to rush.

Edited January 18, 2017 by iamshack

[The Beast]

Will anyone going to SoxFest go to a Q&A with RH and grill him? Beat him up a bit and see what he says about Quintana? The lack of rumors and disagreement over what to do with Quintana now and at the deadline is driving me crazy.

[iamshack]

Will anyone going to SoxFest go to a Q&A with RH and grill him? Beat him up a bit and see what he says about Quintana? The lack of rumors and disagreement over what to do with Quintana now and at the deadline is driving me crazy.

For the love of god, no.

[caulfield12]

Jose suffers from knowing how to pitch so well that he makes it look ordinary and effortless. He convinces you that anyone can do what he does. The reality is there are maybe 15 guys in all of baseball who pitch as many innings he does every year with the kind of results that he does. You are right in saying he is a locomotive that drives a team to a division championship. How many of those locomotives hit the market? How many of them hit the market with 4 years of control for less than $10 million/year?

 

You are selling Jose Quintana short, and you're selling him short because he isn't flashy. No, he isn't Chris Sale. But he produces results like Chris Sale without looking like he's trying nearly as hard.

 

I believe it was the Braves' GM who mentioned he's not Chris Sale as well.

 

This is the trap these teams would like us to fall into. To be convinced that somehow the outs Quintana records are somehow less valuable than the outs Chris Sale records because they don't come via 96 mph fastballs or 91 mph sliders. But the bottom line is, an out is an out is an out, and Quintana has shown he can record outs with just about the same effectiveness as a man with a vastly more impressive to the eye repertoire.

 

Guess what? I give zero f***s what it looks like to my eye. I care about what the results are.

 

Hahn is correctly not falling victim to this line of bulls*** and is holding out to get appropriate value for an extremely rare asset because there simply is no reason to rush.

 

Not to mention the Q comparisons to Lester/Buehrle/Glavine...all pitchers that had LONG and HOF-ish careers.

 

Sale might last longer than Q without a major surgery, sure, anything's possible, but anyone who throws 94-98 and has so much torque on his sliders would seemingly have a higher likelihood of going down to injury.

 

And with 4 years of control, even a Q injury gives him 2 1/2 years to rebound, versus the 1 1/2 years in Sale's deal (assuming a 1 1/2 year time frame before the pitcher would be back to 100%).

[reiks12]

Has it been discussed that it is possible Hahn has received an offer he is willing to accept but he just wants to wait out the offseason to see if anyone can match or beat the offer?

[BlackSox13]

Will anyone going to SoxFest go to a Q&A with RH and grill him? Beat him up a bit and see what he says about Quintana? The lack of rumors and disagreement over what to do with Quintana now and at the deadline is driving me crazy.

If Hahn was willing to speak more on his trade negotiations for Q, it would already be out there. Hahn is not going to give in to fan peer pressure, nor should he.

Edited January 18, 2017 by BlackSox13

[iamshack]

Has it been discussed that it is possible Hahn has received an offer he is willing to accept but he just wants to wait out the offseason to see if anyone can match or beat the offer?

There seems to be some speculation that that may be the case, but I doubt it.

 

Hahn doesn't strike me as the type of guy to dick around like that.

[heirdog]

Has it been discussed that it is possible Hahn has received an offer he is willing to accept but he just wants to wait out the offseason to see if anyone can match or beat the offer?

 

He has likely taken that hypothetical offer to the other teams and given them a day or less to match. No sense waiting any longer than that as he would risk the acceptable offer being pulled. So unless that happened in the last 24 hours, it likely hasn't happened

[hi8is]

Can I please write a script that injects a post after everyone else's post that says: "PLEASE GOD MAKE IT STOP".

 

I'd only leave it on until he's traded.

 

Pretty please?

[steveno89]

Jose Quintana is 200 very solid, occasionally brilliant, left-handed innings. His WAR slightly overrates him, though he is obviously not an overrated player around the league.

 

He is not Chris Sale. He is not a potential hall of famer nor generational talent. He is not particularly unique or rare, there are Jose Quintana's in the league every year going back forever. Maybe not a giant pile of them, but there have always been guys pitching as well as Jose Quintana has pitched for the White Sox. This isn't meant to disparage or belittle how good Q has been, its just an honest appraisal of him. He's still a fantastic pitcher who just turned 28 and figures to keep doing what he's been doing. Jose Quintana's are the locomotives that drive a team to a division championship.

 

The contract is not as important as people make it out to be. Its nice, it definitely helps more than it hurts, but really its only a deal breaker to the real cheap franchises like Pittsburgh and you've seen how incredibly frustrating their cowardice to step up and make a move for fear of being wrong they can be. The teams willing to give up prospects for Quintana are giving up prospects for Quintana so he can help them win their divisions this year and next year*. If he comes cheaper that's great.

 

*this also hampers his deadline value because teams are going to want the 120 IP he'll have accumulated by the team the deadline rolls around.

 

You're big time selling Quintana short here

 

He might not be as sexy as a Kershaw or sale, but he is one of the very best starters in the game. Coupled with a contract that is incredibly reasonable over the next four seasons, his value is massive.

 

The sox are not forced to trade him. Don't give in to being impatient. Hahn has asked sox fans for their patience in a rebuilding process that will take years, not months. Hahn has scored two excellent trades so far this off-season that sox fans seem to be unanimously in favor of. Lets put our trust in him to do the same with Quintana, on the timeline that he feels is best for the organization.

[CyAcosta41]

I hate to break it to you, but that is not how a market works. Jose Quintana is not a fungible good or a widget. He is not a barrel of oil or a bail of hay or a megawatt of electricity or a british thermal unit of natural gas. He is a unique and rare asset and sometimes such assets require time to find the right buyer. Such an asset necessarily is expensive and thus the number of buyers is lower than less expensive assets.

 

There is no rush here. There is only impatience.

 

You go, Shack! I've been tempted to say almost exactly this over and over again the past few weeks, but never got around to it.

 

Perhaps a different analogy may persuade some of the naysayers. Let's talk real estate. So many starters are little more than interchangeable houses in a cookie-cutter subdivision -- there are always plenty available in any given market, many buyers looking at most of them, and comps that any realtor can produce that ultimately demonstrate a narrow range of offer and acceptance pricing.

 

Jose Quintana ain't no subdivision. He's custom-built, all the upgrades, built-to-last, and sitting on a premium lot with a one-of-a-kind view. There is little in the way of true comps and a deal is ultimately struck when the buyer who must have that particular house ultimately ponies up enough so that the current owner is willing to let it go.

 

Back to baseball -- depending on the metrics you choose to emphasize, Q is a top 10-20 starter in ALL OF BASEBALL, he's likely a surer bet for 200 IP with outstanding traditional and advanced metric numbers as anyone, he's seemingly a pitching machine with as little risk of injury as anyone, and he's locked up for another 4 years under a contract that provides the kind of surplus value that happens a couple of times a decade! Perhaps Rick won't get the Sale or Eaton deal, but he's looking to get darned close to that. And he should. No way do we sell the Q with a view dream home without getting back a couple of top prospects who we are going to feel real good about (I'm talking Meadows/Keller ... or Frazier/Mateo/Rutherford).

 

If posters don't accept that Jose Quintana is EASILY the best starter available this offseason, then we're not talking the same language. For once, we're holding the cards. You play it hard; you play it strong; you extract maximum value. Rick Hahn has had a masterful offseason to date -- a strong Sale deal, followed by a near brilliant Eaton deal. I see it as a good sign that our own posters are getting antsy. There's a good chance the same is happening with many of our potential trading partners, whether the known suspects like the Astros, Pirates, Yanks, Braves, and Rangers, or with some other potential partners who are feigning disinterest, but are ready to swoop in at the last minute to avoid bidding against themselves (I'm thinking Rockies, Dodgers, and maybe even Red Sox / Nats here).

 

It's only the middle of January. Why in the world should be worrying NOW that Hahn is "overplaying" his hand and needs to ratchet down his demands? Why in the world would he do that now? Instead, it's exactly the time where a frustrated potential partner may have his Tom Cruise in Risky Business moment -- sometimes, you just gotta say "what the f*ck," and maybe we have a third great deal in this offseason.

 

If we're May/June and Q is still here and we start hearing about teams starting to auction off TOR-type pitchers to the 2017 crop of contenders, then hit me with all of the Hahn overplayed his hand arguments. But we're a long way from then. In fact, for the next couple of weeks we're arguably exactly at the time when our suddenly astute (or perhaps, suddenly "freed") GM can generate max value.

 

Can I quote you?

There is no rush here. There is only impatience.

You are spot-on!

[BlackSox13]

Can I please write a script that injects a post after everyone else's post that says: "PLEASE GOD MAKE IT STOP".

 

I'd only leave it on until he's traded.

 

Pretty please?

Too much fruit and fiber in your diet? Try eating more bread, rice and crackers.

[hi8is]

Some good conversation here.

So ambiguous. Only grows my angst.

[caulfield12]

You go, Shack! I've been tempted to say almost exactly this over and over again the past few weeks, but never got around to it.

 

Perhaps a different analogy may persuade some of the naysayers. Let's talk real estate. So many starters are little more than interchangeable houses in a cookie-cutter subdivision -- there are always plenty available in any given market, many buyers looking at most of them, and comps that any realtor can produce that ultimately demonstrate a narrow range of offer and acceptance pricing.

 

Jose Quintana ain't no subdivision. He's custom-built, all the upgrades, built-to-last, and sitting on a premium lot with a one-of-a-kind view. There is little in the way of true comps and a deal is ultimately struck when the buyer who must have that particular house ultimately ponies up enough so that the current owner is willing to let it go.

 

Back to baseball -- depending on the metrics you choose to emphasize, Q is a top 10-20 starter in ALL OF BASEBALL, he's likely a surer bet for 200 IP with outstanding traditional and advanced metric numbers as anyone, he's seemingly a pitching machine with as little risk of injury as anyone, and he's locked up for another 4 years under a contract that provides the kind of surplus value that happens a couple of times a decade! Perhaps Rick won't get the Sale or Eaton deal, but he's looking to get darned close to that. And he should. No way do we sell the Q with a view dream home without getting back a couple of top prospects who we are going to feel real good about (I'm talking Meadows/Keller ... or Frazier/Mateo/Rutherford).

 

If posters don't accept that Jose Quintana is EASILY the best starter available this offseason, then we're not talking the same language. For once, we're holding the cards. You play it hard; you play it strong; you extract maximum value. Rick Hahn has had a masterful offseason to date -- a strong Sale deal, followed by a near brilliant Eaton deal. I see it as a good sign that our own posters are getting antsy. There's a good chance the same is happening with many of our potential trading partners, whether the known suspects like the Astros, Pirates, Yanks, Braves, and Rangers, or with some other potential partners who are feigning disinterest, but are ready to swoop in at the last minute to avoid bidding against themselves (I'm thinking Rockies, Dodgers, and maybe even Red Sox / Nats here).

 

It's only the middle of January. Why in the world should be worrying NOW that Hahn is "overplaying" his hand and needs to ratchet down his demands? Why in the world would he do that now? Instead, it's exactly the time where a frustrated potential partner may have his Tom Cruise in Risky Business moment -- sometimes, you just gotta say "what the f*ck," and maybe we have a third great deal in this offseason.

 

If we're May/June and Q is still here and we start hearing about teams starting to auction off TOR-type pitchers to the 2017 crop of contenders, then hit me with all of the Hahn overplayed his hand arguments. But we're a long way from then. In fact, for the next couple of weeks we're arguably exactly at the time when our suddenly astute (or perhaps, suddenly "freed") GM can generate max value.

 

Can I quote you?

There is no rush here. There is only impatience.

You are spot-on!

 

 

Spot on.

 

It's even riskier for teams to provide the same package (or even more than they're currently willing to offer for Q) for either Gray or Archer.

 

Those are the types (I know better than every GM!!) of moves that either work out spectacularly and get epic books like Moneyball II written about you or end up (the more likely scenario) similar to the LaRussa/Dave Stewart saga in Arizona.

 

One of the reasons Luhnow MIGHT be hesitating is he already feels burned by the Ken Giles deal...and is fearful of committing the same mistake, hoping he can "slog" through the first half with that rotation sprinkled in with 2-3 youngsters and stay close enough in the playoff race to reassess at the trade deadline.

Edited January 18, 2017 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

I generally love your insight, but lately you seem to be allowing impatience to cloud your judgment.

 

This post is entirely speculation (albeit perhaps informed).

It's definitely speculation, but based on the variety of rumors we've heard. And Merkin made it seem pretty clear last night in an interview that Hahn would likely need to come down from his very high ask to get a deal done. His example was something along the lines, "Would you be willing to take Meadows, but maybe accept three prospects back instead of four or take lesser secondary pieces". It really came off that Hahn is still asking for the moon, like say Glasnow & Bell in addition to Meadows. No way is that a realistic ask, but we saw Hahn do this with the Red Sox at the trade deadline for Sale.

 

And this approach works fine for now. We don't technically have to move Quintana this offseason (although I think we should) and can wait it out a bit longer to see if a team gets desperate as spring training nears. At the bare minimum, it's probably forced teams to move past the typical bulls*** starting offers and put something with some actual substance on the table. Again, this is all speculation, but I find it hard to believe the Astros offered their top three prospects plus two others for Archer, but wouldn't come close to that for Quintana. I really think we're sitting on a strong offer from the Astros. If I had to guess, Hahn likes what the Yankees & Pirates could potentially offer better (Torres/Frazier & Meadows) and is simply waiting them out. That's fine for now when we're the only seller on the market and have all the leverage, but I don't think you can go into the season with the hope either team changes their tune.

 

Ultimately, I think Hahn will happily take a Martes/Tucker headlined package for Quintana if that's the best he can do this offseason. I think there is far too much risk in waiting until the deadline to make a move when you consider the likelihood of an improved outcome. And I truly believe Hahn feels the same exact way. He's obviously not going to settle for garbage, but he's also not going to pass on a strong collection of prospects right now in hopes of getting a perfect offer down the road.

[Chicago White Sox]

The first part is exactly right.

 

i disagree with the second part. Q will still be under contract when the team is good again. If he is still around, the Sox will have a variety of pitchers to try to build a great pitching staff, then they can buy hitters because all of the pitchers will be at a very low cost.

When will the team be good again if we don't move Quintana? How much control will we have over him at that time?

[Soha]

The only reason I'd want to push for a trade within the next few weeks is the 2018 draft. If the Sox go in to the season with Rodon as our #1 and huge question marks after that, they will have a chance at 100 losses. A chance at 100 losses gives them a crack at Seth Beer. I don't think this should be discounted, and even if you take very slightly less in a deal to get this ball rolling - it might be worth it in the longterm.

[hi8is]

...Merkin made it seem pretty clear last night in an interview that Hahn would likely need to come down from his very high ask to get a deal done...

Do you have a link to this interview? I'd love to hear it.

[Chicago White Sox]

Do you have a link to this interview? I'd love to hear it.

It was on WSCR last year, someone filling in for Lawrence Holmes interviewed him.