Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week

[fredmanrique]

I would be fine meeting in the middle on a deal both sides could pick apart.

 

Meadows, Keller, Newman, Diaz for Q and Jones

 

They keep Glasnow and Bell, we dont get full value for Jones but we do get Meadows

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Will anyone going to SoxFest go to a Q&A with RH and grill him? Beat him up a bit and see what he says about Quintana? The lack of rumors and disagreement over what to do with Quintana now and at the deadline is driving me crazy.

 

Why? Because of impatience? Seriously, this is going to be a long 5 years for you.

[southsider2k5]

Has it been discussed that it is possible Hahn has received an offer he is willing to accept but he just wants to wait out the offseason to see if anyone can match or beat the offer?

 

If he had an offer, he might give a short time period to other teams, but I can't see it being more than 24 to 48 hours.

[Dunt]

The point was that there is a wider range of players available in January than there is in June/July and that's true. Certainly there's a full spectrum of outcomes that could happen with the players in consideration now and that's worth noting. However, the underlying point that is indisputable in my opinion is the fact that the Sox have a wider pool of players to choose from than they will in July. There are players that could "potentially" help an MLB team in 2017 that are available now like Glasnow. If Glasnow sticks with Pittsburg and becomes a #3 type this year, he's out. Sox aren't getting him anymore. Same could be said with Martes, Albies and potential other headliners.

 

This isn't even considering the risk of Quintana getting hurt, underperforming or having his value flogged down with bad luck in a small sample size (high BABIP, unsustainable HR/FB%, bad defense, etc.). If you're Chris Sale or Kershaw your value won't be touched by a three months of a say, 4.2 ERA, but if you're Jose Quintana...who knows how that affects things. He's not the sexy American with a 98 MPH who's been under baseball fans' microscope for ten years. He's the minor league free agent from Columbia who you're pleasantly surprised hits 93 MPH. He takes the ball every fifth days and uses everything in his repertoire to get people out. At this point, despite his contract and track record, his value is far from fungible. He's more susceptible to a value regression than most of his value equivalents.

 

It's hard to say what the Sox should do without seeing the actual offers, but to me, his value is likely higher than it ever will be and the returns are not going to have the inclusiveness they have now until next November.

 

[steveno89]

I would be fine meeting in the middle on a deal both sides could pick apart.

 

Meadows, Keller, Newman, Diaz for Q and Jones

 

They keep Glasnow and Bell, we dont get full value for Jones but we do get Meadows

 

Why would we have to toss Jones into the picture to make that deal come together?

 

Jones has significant value on his own after an excellent 2016 and the cheap contract he is signed to.

 

I would be very upset if we essentially traded Jones for Diaz

[southsider2k5]

For the next 3 weeks, Rick Hahn has just as little pressure to get this done as the teams out there have to make the deal. How exactly are these teams going to fall out of the market for Q? The Astros are going to find someone better? They're going to get Sonny Gray and tell themselves that solves the problem of their rotation being inconsistent?

 

For the next 3 years, Rick Hahn has less pressure than any GM looking to compete. All he has to do is show "progress". It doesn't matter a lick if the team on the field absolutely sucks. Can the Pirates, Astros, Yankees, etc say the same? Uh, no.

[southsider2k5]

Don't you see Jose Quintana demanding $150 million from the white sox.

 

If that was what he demanded from his next deal, you give it to him in a heartbeat. Luckily we don't have to worry about that until next decade.

[southsider2k5]

The point was that there is a wider range of players available in January than there is in June/July and that's true. Certainly there's a full spectrum of outcomes that could happen with the players in consideration now and that's worth noting. However, the underlying point that is indisputable in my opinion is the fact that the Sox have a wider pool of players to choose from than they will in July. There are players that could "potentially" help an MLB team in 2017 that are available now like Glasnow. If Glasnow sticks with Pittsburg and becomes a #3 type this year, he's out. Sox aren't getting him anymore. Same could be said with Martes, Albies and potential other headliners.

 

This isn't even considering the risk of Quintana getting hurt, underperforming or having his value flogged down with bad luck in a small sample size (high BABIP, unsustainable HR/FB%, bad defense, etc.). If you're Chris Sale or Kershaw your value won't be touched by a three months of a say, 4.2 ERA, but if you're Jose Quintana...who knows how that affects things. He's not the sexy American with a 98 MPH who's been under baseball fans' microscope for ten years. He's the minor league free agent from Columbia who you're pleasantly surprised hits 93 MPH. He takes the ball every fifth days and uses everything in his repertoire to get people out. At this point, despite his contract and track record, his value is far from fungible. He's more susceptible to a value regression than most of his value equivalents.

 

It's hard to say what the Sox should do without seeing the actual offers, but to me, his value is likely higher than it ever will be and the returns are not going to have the inclusiveness they have now until next November.

 

I also fully believe that neither Moncada or Giolitto are available without their problems at the major league level last year. If they had a Gary Sanchez type of debut, they aren't White Sox today.

[Chicago White Sox]

The point was that there is a wider range of players available in January than there is in June/July and that's true. Certainly there's a full spectrum of outcomes that could happen with the players in consideration now and that's worth noting. However, the underlying point that is indisputable in my opinion is the fact that the Sox have a wider pool of players to choose from than they will in July. There are players that could "potentially" help an MLB team in 2017 that are available now like Glasnow. If Glasnow sticks with Pittsburg and becomes a #3 type this year, he's out. Sox aren't getting him anymore. Same could be said with Martes, Albies and potential other headliners.

 

This isn't even considering the risk of Quintana getting hurt, underperforming or having his value flogged down with bad luck in a small sample size (high BABIP, unsustainable HR/FB%, bad defense, etc.). If you're Chris Sale or Kershaw your value won't be touched by a three months of a say, 4.2 ERA, but if you're Jose Quintana...who knows how that affects things. He's not the sexy American with a 98 MPH who's been under baseball fans' microscope for ten years. He's the minor league free agent from Columbia who you're pleasantly surprised hits 93 MPH. He takes the ball every fifth days and uses everything in his repertoire to get people out. At this point, despite his contract and track record, his value is far from fungible. He's more susceptible to a value regression than most of his value equivalents.

 

It's hard to say what the Sox should do without seeing the actual offers, but to me, his value is likely higher than it ever will be and the returns are not going to have the inclusiveness they have now until next November.

Great post...agree 100%.

[steveno89]

I also fully believe that neither Moncada or Giolitto are available without their problems at the major league level last year. If they had a Gary Sanchez type of debut, they aren't White Sox today.

 

Had Bregman, Swanson or Turner struggled I bet he would be in play as well

 

I feel AJ Reed is very much in play for the Sox due to mlb struggles

 

Giolito would never be traded if he went out there and looked dominant. Same goes with Glasnow.

 

Moncada was brought up far too soon, and never played above AA ball. He needs time in AAA to work on some things before getting called up later in the season if he is ready. Ideally I would wait until next season to call him up and prevent his service clock from starting to tick.

[peavy44]

No, because he is currently in the midst of a lengthy contract. I think when he gets to free agency, he'll have his agent ask for a very large sum of money.

 

 

Ya the White Sox won't pay that.

[southsider2k5]

Had Bregman, Swanson or Turner struggled I bet he would be in play as well

 

I feel AJ Reed is very much in play for the Sox due to mlb struggles

 

Giolito would never be traded if he went out there and looked dominant. Same goes with Glasnow.

 

Moncada was brought up far too soon, and never played above AA ball. He needs time in AAA to work on some things before getting called up later in the season if he is ready. Ideally I would wait until next season to call him up and prevent his service clock from starting to tick.

 

I am perfectly OK with Moncada playing a full minor league season. If his MLB debut showed anything at all, it is that he needs reps, and he needs ABs. Maybe he dominates Charlotte and forces a call up, but I am plenty fine with him forcing that, versus us calling him just because his deadlines pass.

[peavy44]

If that was what he demanded from his next deal, you give it to him in a heartbeat. Luckily we don't have to worry about that until next decade.

 

Sox never gave a player 100 million so it won't happen.

 

[southsider2k5]

Sox never gave a player 100 million so it won't happen.

 

On the bright side, since you know everything already, there is literally no reason for you to watch or talk about baseball now.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Ya the White Sox won't pay that.

Jose Quintana's NEXT contract is not even close to being on the White Sox worry list, or on the worry list of most of the fans. It's not gonna be our concern.

[peavy44]

Jose Quintana's NEXT contract is not even close to being on the White Sox worry list, or on the worry list of most of the fans. It's not gonna be our concern.

 

You Wouldn't sign Jose Q in 4 years from now I would.

 

[steveno89]

You Wouldn't sign Jose Q in 4 years from now I would.

 

Quintana's next contract is not even worth discussing at this point. 4 years is an eternity in baseball

[BlackSox13]

No, but my idea is something I definitely would have used on Williams back in the day since he's the kind of guy who allows things to get to him. I would like to see how Hahn responds to questions about the rebuild though, because we are at the point in the offseason where there's nothing going on and we patiently have to wait for spring training to start.

Hahn has already said due to market demand or lack thereof, trading away assets for the rebuild could take the rest of this year. I think Frazier is gone by the deadline and if Melky hits like Melky he might be too. That leaves Robertson which if he pitches well could be gone by the deadline or next winter. Bottom line is Hahn can't force teams to trade for the players he wants to trade.

 

I agree with on KW. If he was running the rebuild there probably would be a bit more out there but Hahn is extremsly quiet when it comes to leaking info.

[iamshack]

The point was that there is a wider range of players available in January than there is in June/July and that's true. Certainly there's a full spectrum of outcomes that could happen with the players in consideration now and that's worth noting. However, the underlying point that is indisputable in my opinion is the fact that the Sox have a wider pool of players to choose from than they will in July. There are players that could "potentially" help an MLB team in 2017 that are available now like Glasnow. If Glasnow sticks with Pittsburg and becomes a #3 type this year, he's out. Sox aren't getting him anymore. Same could be said with Martes, Albies and potential other headliners.

 

This isn't even considering the risk of Quintana getting hurt, underperforming or having his value flogged down with bad luck in a small sample size (high BABIP, unsustainable HR/FB%, bad defense, etc.). If you're Chris Sale or Kershaw your value won't be touched by a three months of a say, 4.2 ERA, but if you're Jose Quintana...who knows how that affects things. He's not the sexy American with a 98 MPH who's been under baseball fans' microscope for ten years. He's the minor league free agent from Columbia who you're pleasantly surprised hits 93 MPH. He takes the ball every fifth days and uses everything in his repertoire to get people out. At this point, despite his contract and track record, his value is far from fungible. He's more susceptible to a value regression than most of his value equivalents.

 

It's hard to say what the Sox should do without seeing the actual offers, but to me, his value is likely higher than it ever will be and the returns are not going to have the inclusiveness they have now until next November.

But is there really? We're hearing/reading that teams have expanded this trade deadline concept of "not moving players from the MLB roster" to the offseason in the form of "this prospect could play a significant role on our team this year."

 

Ultimately, it seems like the market has evolved to only be willing to move prospects with no prospective role on the MLB roster for the remaining balance of the upcoming season.

 

What that means is buyers ultimately taking on more risk, due to the prospects being further away, but it really shouldn't impact the quantity or depth of attractive assets but rather the risk involved in taking on those assets. Essentially, project -ability takes a hit but there isn't a liquidity problem by any means.

 

I thought ss2k's point was valid as well. Even prospects that are close to the majors carry risk with them, and some of these packages we're hearing about contain prospects whose values will have taken a hit between today and July.

[BlackSox13]

Don't you see Jose Quintana demanding $150 million from the white sox.

By the time Q is a FA he will be just about 32 years old. I think only Dave Stewart would be dumb enough to pay 150M for Q. Besides, Q will be replaced long before he gets to FA.

[striker]

The uncertainty of performance works both ways. To act as if some new market development changes the fact that more players will be available now as opposed to July is something I can't take on.

This. The Quintana trade is a very key piece to our upgrade process and not worth the game of holding onto him. Quintana's value can go down (performance or injury) just as easily as any of the prospects we get in return. I can take that risk with trading Frazier, Abreu or Cabrera, and Robertson, but I wouldn't with Quintana or Jones.

[iamshack]

The Sox just got two top 35 pitching prospects who pitched in the MLB in 2016 and will pitch in the MLB in 2017 in one trade for Adam Eaton. That kind of flies in the face of the idea that the market is evolving towards teams holding "prospects who are close."

 

As far as the bolded, yes, packages can take hits. They can also get better. What if Sox leave an offer on the table the Pittsburgh for Newman and Keller. Come July, Newman shows legit power and Keller is dominating A+ ball. Completely possible scenario. The uncertainty of performance works both ways. To act as if some new market development changes the fact that more players will be available now as opposed to July is something I can't take on.

The point I'm trying to make is this:

 

The offseason was typically viewed as a time when teams were more willing to turnover their roster a bit more because there was a period available to make adjustments to that turnover without impacting in-season chemistry, etc. This offseason, we're hearing that teams top prospects are not available because the teams view them as critical pieces of their 2017 rosters.

 

Essentially that has the same impact on us as the phenomenon you described which happens at the trade deadline - you have to settle for players that are further away. But that doesn't create a lack of liquidity by any means. It shifts the project-ability axis further down however.

 

An example is Benintendi. Let's say we couldn't get him this offseason because he was too good at the end of last season. It has been speculated that he could have been had at the deadline last year, however. I'm pretty damn sure he could have been had during the offseason last year. But you didn't value him during last year's offseason the way you did at the deadline, because he hadn't yet done some more things that created that value or opinion of his value until after the offseason.

 

There will be more Benintendi's at the deadline this year, we may just not have identified them yet.

[southsider2k5]

This. The Quintana trade is a very key piece to our upgrade process and not worth the game of holding onto him. Quintana's value can go down (performance or injury) just as easily as any of the prospects we get in return. I can take that risk with trading Frazier, Abreu or Cabrera, and Robertson, but I wouldn't with Quintana or Jones.

 

Which is why we need to be sure that what we get back has the high potential to be an upgrade, and not just a move to make the move.

[harfman77]

There will be A and AA players that take significant steps forward in the next 6 months.

 

And quite a few of these top prospects will take steps back that will diminish their value as well.

[Baron]

Which is why we need to be sure that what we get back has the high potential to be an upgrade, and not just a move to make the move.

 

No one on here is arguing for that last part. I get sick of hearing it.