Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week

[ChiSox59]

No one on here is arguing for that last part. I get sick of hearing it.

 

Ehhhh, slightly debatable.

[bmags]

We are probably incorrectly lumping in all prospects together when we shouldn't. And I don't think "close to bigs" is the actual reason teams are holding on to prospects we had expected they'd part with.

 

The actual disappointment so far is that teams are not trading top hitting prospects as easily as pitching prospects. Nationals gave a haul for eaton, but that haul was not going to include Robles.

 

The pirates hang ups aren't over top prospect glasnow or Keller, it's including Meadows or Bell. The yankees should be willing to trade their glut of position prospects! Except they aren't giving many in a package, because the value is above what we expect.

 

And this probably is not irrational and likely is not going away. The FA market for hitters has been big on no position power guys and weak on regular position players for a few seasons now, and the "meh" hitting good fielding guys are getting paid.

 

So what exactly is changing from the above dynamic in six months?

 

 

 

[Baron]

Ehhhh, slightly debatable.

 

No it isnt. No one on here is asking just make a trade because I want a trade. There's been in depth conversation as to why it may not be prudent to wait sure. But that doesnt equate to that last remark. It's just lazy.

[ChiSox59]

No it isnt. No one on here is asking just make a trade because I want a trade. There's been in depth conversation as to why it may not be prudent to wait sure. But that doesnt equate to that last remark. It's just lazy.

 

Its sort of irrelevant, so I won't take the take to debate it, but there are definitely people here who's comments would lead you to believe they think the best plan of action right now is to accept the best offer on the table right now, whether or not it is up to par with with what Hahn wants. That is pretty much making a trade to make a trade. The Sox have nothing but time with Q. Settling for a trade at this juncture is asinine, IMO.

[Baron]

Its sort of irrelevant, so I won't take the take to debate it, but there are definitely people here who's comments would lead you to believe they think the best plan of action right now is to accept the best offer on the table right now, whether or not it is up to par with with what Hahn wants. That is pretty much making a trade to make a trade. The Sox have nothing but time with Q. Settling for a trade at this juncture is asinine, IMO.

 

That doesnt equate to the comment above. That's part of the overall discussion we are having. Personally and I have no proof of this but I bet Hahn is asking for a ridiculous return for Q. I think it's going to backfire if he's not traded by the start of the season.

[southsider2k5]

No one on here is arguing for that last part. I get sick of hearing it.

 

If the argument is that a deal has to be made right now, no matter what, you are saying that the team has to accept the best offer on the table, no matter what. That means taking potentially less than if you were able to wait out a better offer. So even if the statement isn't there, the idea is implicit in saying the trade has to get done NOW.

[FT35]

That doesnt equate to the comment above. That's part of the overall discussion we are having. Personally and I have no proof of this but I bet Hahn is asking for a ridiculous return for Q. I think it's going to backfire if he's not traded by the start of the season.

 

I think you're right. Obviously the return should be high...but one thing has restored a little of my faith. He's shown his ability to negotiate and complete a trade in which maximizes his return for a top asset. He's done it twice already with Sale and Eaton so my gut tells me that he at least knows what he's doing and will be OK. He is the judge of his own tolerance level at this point--he earned that position by turning many heads with the deals he's completed thus far.

[harfman77]

That doesnt equate to the comment above. That's part of the overall discussion we are having. Personally and I have no proof of this but I bet Hahn is asking for a ridiculous return for Q. I think it's going to backfire if he's not traded by the start of the season.

 

I am sure he is asking for a ridiculous return for Q, just as he did for Eaton and Sale, but that is the price the market has set. The hauls the Yankees received this summer, even the Hamels trade from a year ago have all driven the market to its current condition. If Hahn gives someone a discount on the current market price he is hurting the Sox long term.

 

The market is too strapped for cost controlled quality pitching for Q's value to diminish in the next six months. If anything holding Q until the trade deadline may serve to increase the market for Q as other pitchers go down with injury or teams find themselves in contention when they did not expect to be. The Astros and Pirates face the risk of other suitors jumping into the mix and driving the price higher if they are unwilling to meet the price now.

 

Sure, there is a risk of Q getting injured and reducing his value, but given his mechanics and pitching style the risk is low. Short of that, his trade value is not going down. Yes he will have less control, but is contract will be an even better deal relative to the open market.

 

 

[flavum]

They can take their chances and hold on to him, but I think he gets traded a week from today.

 

Wednesday, January 25.

[Chicago White Sox]

If the argument is that a deal has to be made right now, no matter what, you are saying that the team has to accept the best offer on the table, no matter what. That means taking potentially less than if you were able to wait out a better offer. So even if the statement isn't there, the idea is implicit in saying the trade has to get done NOW.

There's no guarantee that waiting results in a better offer though. In fact, many posters here have detailed why it's unlikely to expect better offer in the future than right now. That's not to say it's impossible to get a better offer by waiting, but the question quickly becomes how much is the potential upside worth relative to the potential downside of holding him into next season. I just can't put together a rational scenario where the market dynamics play out in such a way that the projected reward exceeds the incremental risks. Without knowing specific offers this obviously is just speculation, but passing on a strong offer now in hopes of a perfect offer later is a fool's bet. Quintana is too valuable to this rebuild to take that gamble.

[southsider2k5]

There's no guarantee that waiting results in a better offer though. In fact, many posters here have detailed why it's unlikely to expect better offer in the future than right now. That's not to say it's impossible to get a better offer by waiting, but the question quickly becomes how much is the potential upside worth relative to the potential downside of holding him into next season. I just can't put together a rational scenario where the market dynamics play out in such a way that the projected reward exceeds the incremental risks. Without knowing specific offers this obviously is just speculation, but passing on a strong offer now in hopes of a perfect offer later is a fool's bet. Quintana is too valuable to this rebuild to take that gamble.

 

Seeing as Q is still signed for 4 more years, losing a year isn't going to hurt his value that much. This isn't a guy hitting free agency in 1 or 2 years.

 

I think Q is the last big chip we have. Losing him for an inferior return will hurt this rebuild way worse than holding on to him for another year would.

[steveno89]

There's no guarantee that waiting results in a better offer though. In fact, many posters here have detailed why it's unlikely to expect better offer in the future than right now. That's not to say it's impossible to get a better offer by waiting, but the question quickly becomes how much is the potential upside worth relative to the potential downside of holding him into next season. I just can't put together a rational scenario where the market dynamics play out in such a way that the projected reward exceeds the incremental risks. Without knowing specific offers this obviously is just speculation, but passing on a strong offer now in hopes of a perfect offer later is a fool's bet. Quintana is too valuable to this rebuild to take that gamble.

 

It's so hard to speculate when we really do not know what has or has not been offered for Quintana

 

It's easy to sit back and criticize Hahn for being too picky, but he is the one in actual negotiations and has a sense of what his value really is.

 

Sometimes it's about squeezing that additional player in a deal vs. getting exactly the headliner who you want

[Dick Allen]

Seeing as Q is still signed for 4 more years, losing a year isn't going to hurt his value that much. This isn't a guy hitting free agency in 1 or 2 years.

 

I think Q is the last big chip we have. Losing him for an inferior return will hurt this rebuild way worse than holding on to him for another year would.

I totally agree with this. And "value" is also something where the needle moves daily. You never know what will happen. In a year, they may trade him for guys ranked lower than what they could trade him for today, and they may all be better ballplayers.

 

It's nice to win the trade the day the trade is made. It's more important to win it in the future. They can't screw this one up.

 

If the guys they traded for Q today wind up sucking, no one here will remember they loved prospect xxx. It will be Rick and Kenny and Jerry are total idiots, they should have traded for xxx, who they easily could have received because they weren't ranked as high.

[Baron]

If the argument is that a deal has to be made right now, no matter what, you are saying that the team has to accept the best offer on the table, no matter what. That means taking potentially less than if you were able to wait out a better offer. So even if the statement isn't there, the idea is implicit in saying the trade has to get done NOW.

 

Except no one is saying that. There's alot of unknown factors which I prefaced my statement with. My first assumption is I think Hahn's asking price is ridiculous and it doesnt correlated potentially with what other teams view Q as which is what Rabbit was alluding to.

 

So they need to decide if that last part is especially the case do they gain anything from waiting? Does his value go up? My answer is no. I dont see a point in which if the answer to that last part being no there would be a positive outcome.

Edited January 18, 2017 by Baron

[Bob Sacamano]

If we hold onto him, we just need teams like the Rockies, Astros, Pirates, Dodgers, and even the Yankees to play good the first 3-4 months and all of a sudden, his value is higher due to more teams being competitive and needing another starter (competitive teams are always looking for a starter). Heck, you might be able to get some of their rivals in discussions. The teams I listed are the teams I want to trade with the most.

Edited January 18, 2017 by soxfan2014

[tray]

I think it is useful to revisit the Cubs trade to the A's" for 3 prospects in July 2014.

 

"Samardzija, 29, is 2-7 with a 2.83 ERA this season. Hammel, 31, is 7-5 with a 2.98 ERA .

Hammel is set to become a free agent after this season, while Samardzija has one more year of arbitration before becoming a free agent.

 

Russell, 20, is ranked third among all prospects on ESPN Insider Keith Law's top 100 list.

Russell has appeared in only 18 games this season due to a hamstring strain, hitting .333 in 58 at-bats at Double-A Midland.

McKinney, 19, has a .241 batting average with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs in 75 games for Class A Stockton this year.

Straily, 25, is 1-2 with a 4.93 ERA in seven starts for the A's. The right-hander is 13-11 in 41 starts for Oakland over the past three seasons.

 

I believe Billy Beane thought this would let them make a run.

Lessons can be learned from history, even recent history. One of the biggest lessons is patience. I am hoping Hahn has enough of it to wait this thing out until the time is right to win on a trade.

 

I don't buy the no-balls. fold'em instead of hold 'em, school of thought which claims that Q must be traded before ST lest he be injured, his performance drops, the market for pitchers weakens...

This is our biggest trade chip. Hahn has to be The Gambler.

Bluff, posture, look confident, and win at baseball's version of poker.

 

 

[Soha]

If we hold onto him, we just need teams like the Rockies, Astros, Pirates, Dodgers, and even the Yankees to play good the first 3-4 months and all of a sudden, his value is higher due to more teams being competitive and needing another starter (competitive teams are always looking for a starter). Heck, you might be able to get some of their rivals in discussions. The teams I listed are the teams I want to trade with the most.

 

Not only those teams you mentioned. What if Lester or Arrieta throw out their arm in the 2nd start in April? Suddenly the Cubs are in desperation mode for a starter and might be willing to move Jimenez & Happ for Quintana. I'm all for waiting for the right deal....but if the right deal is here and now, pounce on it.

[Chicago White Sox]

Seeing as Q is still signed for 4 more years, losing a year isn't going to hurt his value that much. This isn't a guy hitting free agency in 1 or 2 years.

 

I think Q is the last big chip we have. Losing him for an inferior return will hurt this rebuild way worse than holding on to him for another year would.

There are literally no other cost-controlled TOR starters available right now without serious question marks. We 100% control the market. To expect the same or better market conditions a year from now is crazy. There's a non-zero chance that someone gets desperate at the deadline and you potentially get a better offer, but you must value that incremental return on a probability-adjusted basis against your downside risk. For some reason, many posters here seem to think that as long as Hahn waits, someone will eventually meet his price, which is absolutely bonkers to me. What happens if Hahn holds his ground for another year or two before realizing he overplayed his hand? He will then have to cave and accept a much lesser return than he could have originally got this offseason because Quintana is now a less valuable asset due to less control.

 

And a player's value can change significantly in a year. Look at what's happened to Sonny Gray. He'll need another four to six months of strong performance before teams consider paying a TOR starter price tag for him. God forbid Quintana gets injured and the amount of time it takes to re-establish his value is even longer. And let's not ignore that Quintana's value is directly tied to his years of control. Once he gets under three years IMO, he radically starts losing value. Again, assuming the Sox receive a strong offer, they'd be crazy not to accept in hopes of getting a perfect offer at the deadline or following offseason.

[Con te Giolito]

Seeing as Q is still signed for 4 more years, losing a year isn't going to hurt his value that much. This isn't a guy hitting free agency in 1 or 2 years.

 

I think Q is the last big chip we have. Losing him for an inferior return will hurt this rebuild way worse than holding on to him for another year would.

Definitely slows down the rebuild by hurting draft position in 2018 and delaying the arrival of prospects to the organization. I guess there's a slim possibility Sox get better value for Quintana next year, basically you're betting that Quintana turns in a ~2.50ish ERA with his usual workload and finishes in the year in the Cy Young race. Sounds like a silly bet to me, especially with all that can go wrong and preexisting disadvantages to waiting to deal Quintana.

[southsider2k5]

Except no one is saying that. There's alot of unknown factors which I prefaced my statement with. My first assumption is I think Hahn's asking price is ridiculous and it doesnt correlated potentially with what other teams view Q as which is what Rabbit was alluding to.

 

So they need to decide if that last part is especially the case do they gain anything from waiting? Does his value go up? My answer is no. I dont see a point in which if the answer to that last part being no there would be a positive outcome.

 

It takes one team to give in and push in their top guy. Waiting could well be the difference between getting a pile of prospects, and getting a top 10 prospect, plus other prospects. Guys like Meadows, Torres, Bregman, etc are worth waiting out to try to get. Seeing the offers that are talked about now, I don't see them really being significantly less in six months or even a year. No one has offered a top 10 guy. There are offers of top 50 guys, plus other end of the top 100 guys, plus maybe others.

 

Let me throw this back the other way. Look at what Cole Hamels went for at the 2015 deadline, and that was with about $100 million left on his deal. Q should be in that ballpark, and I have no reason to think he won't get that even if it is at this deadline or next winter.

[Chicago White Sox]

If we hold onto him, we just need teams like the Rockies, Astros, Pirates, Dodgers, and even the Yankees to play good the first 3-4 months and all of a sudden, his value is higher due to more teams being competitive and needing another starter (competitive teams are always looking for a starter). Heck, you might be able to get some of their rivals in discussions. The teams I listed are the teams I want to trade with the most.

You've completely ignored the seller side of the equation. Four months from now Archer & Gray may be more attractive and/or more readily available. There also may be some rental options available that don't require a team gutting the top end of their system.

Edited January 18, 2017 by Chicago White Sox

[southsider2k5]

I think it is useful to revisit the Cubs trade to the A's" for 3 prospects in July 2014.

 

"Samardzija, 29, is 2-7 with a 2.83 ERA this season. Hammel, 31, is 7-5 with a 2.98 ERA .

Hammel is set to become a free agent after this season, while Samardzija has one more year of arbitration before becoming a free agent.

 

Russell, 20, is ranked third among all prospects on ESPN Insider Keith Law's top 100 list.

Russell has appeared in only 18 games this season due to a hamstring strain, hitting .333 in 58 at-bats at Double-A Midland.

McKinney, 19, has a .241 batting average with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs in 75 games for Class A Stockton this year.

Straily, 25, is 1-2 with a 4.93 ERA in seven starts for the A's. The right-hander is 13-11 in 41 starts for Oakland over the past three seasons.

 

I believe Billy Beane thought this would let them make a run.

Lessons can be learned from history, even recent history. One of the biggest lessons is patience. I am hoping Hahn has enough of it to wait this thing out until the time is right to win on a trade.

 

I don't buy the no-balls. fold'em instead of hold 'em, school of thought which claims that Q must be traded before ST lest he be injured, his performance drops, the market for pitchers weakens...

This is our biggest trade chip. Hahn has to be The Gambler.

Bluff, posture, look confident, and win at baseball's version of poker.

 

Samardjiza is another great deadline example.

[Soha]

There are literally no other cost-controlled TOR starters available right now without serious question marks. We 100% control the market. To expect the same or better market conditions a year from now is crazy. There's a non-zero chance that someone gets desperate at the deadline and you potentially get a better offer, but you must value that incremental return on a probability-adjusted basis against your downside risk. For some reason, many posters here seem to think that as long as Hahn waits, someone will eventually meet his price, which is absolutely bonkers to me. What happens if Hahn holds his ground for another year or two before realizing he overplayed his hand? He will then have to cave and accept a much lesser return than he could have originally got this offseason because Quintana is now a less valuable asset due to less control.

 

And a player's value can change significantly in a year. Look at what's happened to Sonny Gray. He'll need another four to six months of strong performance before teams consider paying a TOR starter price tag for him. God forbid Quintana gets injured and the amount of time it takes to re-establish his value is even longer. And let's not ignore that Quintana's value is directly tied to his years of control. Once he gets under three years IMO, he radically starts losing value. Again, assuming the Sox receive a strong offer, they'd be crazy not to accept in hopes of getting a perfect offer at the deadline or following offseason.

 

One thing you don't seem to be accounting for - is that maybe the market is tapped of teams with high-end prospects who are willing to move them for pitching? Since the summer the Cubs, Indians, Nationals and Red Sox have all given up a ton for pitching. That market might be tapped right now. So even if the ideal circumstances to trade Q is better now than a year from now (which I agree with you on), you very well might have an easier time moving him them. New prospects develop, different teams have different needs...the deck gets shuffled and new players emerge. And yeah there's risk. There's also risk that prospects you acquire can be lost to injuries as well.

[southsider2k5]

Definitely slows down the rebuild by hurting draft position in 2018 and delaying the arrival of prospects to the organization. I guess there's a slim possibility Sox get better value for Quintana next year, basically you're betting that Quintana turns in a ~2.50ish ERA with his usual workload and finishes in the year in the Cy Young race. Sounds like a silly bet to me, especially with all that can go wrong and preexisting disadvantages to waiting to deal Quintana.

 

It doesn't really slow anything down that much. This team is going to suck this year. They are going to play awful defense. Most of the players we got aren't even going to contribute this year anyway.

[Con te Giolito]

A deal doesn't have to made RIGHT NOW TODAY but the longer this drags on the more the prospect of him breaking camp with the Sox rises. I'm not desperate to see him go, but I am getting apprehensive about Rick Hahn's handling of this situation.

 

No panic, no freaking out...but definitely starting to worry.

 

Johan Santana was traded on January 30th (well, really January 28th. The deal was contingent on the Mets hammering out an extension with him and that took a couple days whatever...), it was about this time that Max Scherzer signed a few years ago...deals can still be made in mid-to-late January. But if he's on the Sox come February it'll be time to start sounding some alarms.