Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week

[southsider2k5]

You've completely ignored the seller side of the equation. Four months from now Archer & Gray may be more attractive and/or more readily available. There also may be some rental options available that don't require a team gutting the top end of their system.

 

There is way too much history of teams moving heaven and earth to get 1/2 starters, both at the deadline and in the off season for me to believe that.

[Con te Giolito]

They are going to play awful defense.

You understand what it will do to Jose Quintana's performance if the Sox defense behind him actually manages to get worse? I think that change alone almost eliminates any reasonable hope that Quintana could raise his stock by turning in an epic 2017 performance.

[southsider2k5]

You understand what it will do to Jose Quintana's performance if the Sox defense behind him actually manages to get worse? I think that change alone almost eliminates any reasonable hope that Quintana could raise his stock by turning in an epic 2017 performance.

 

Advanced statistics exist for a reason.

[Soha]

It doesn't really slow anything down that much. This team is going to suck this year. They are going to play awful defense. Most of the players we got aren't even going to contribute this year anyway.

 

It might not take much. If the 2012 Cubs had won 3 more games, Kris Bryant would be a Colorado Rockie. Who knows if they still win the World Series.

[Con te Giolito]

Advanced statistics exist for a reason.

If Quintana turns in a 4+ ERA it will still do serious damage to his stock no matter what his FIP or WAR winds up being.

[southsider2k5]

If Quintana turns in a 4+ ERA it will still do serious damage to his stock no matter what his FIP or WAR winds up being.

 

What is a bigger if, Q having a bad enough year to significantly impact his trade value, or a subpar basket of prospects not making an impact in the future?

 

Even after a really bad year with an era near 5, Jeff Samardjiza signed a contract for double what Q is owed.

 

If I am betting on an outcome, I am much more willing to bet that Q is the same pitcher that he has always been, versus a basket of prospects without a top notch position player helping us in the future to a significant extent.

[Chicago White Sox]

One thing you don't seem to be accounting for - is that maybe the market is tapped of teams with high-end prospects who are willing to move them for pitching? Since the summer the Cubs, Indians, Nationals and Red Sox have all given up a ton for pitching. That market might be tapped right now. So even if the ideal circumstances to trade Q is better now than a year from now (which I agree with you on), you very well might have an easier time moving him them. New prospects develop, different teams have different needs...the deck gets shuffled and new players emerge. And yeah there's risk. There's also risk that prospects you acquire can be lost to injuries as well.

That's a fair point, but one I'm not willing to bank on it. If anything, I'm concerned the new international free agency rules will cause the big market teams to be even more conservative in trading prospects. In the past, they could simply go out and spend their way to replace any prospects traded. With that option gone, I think we see more teams act like the Dodgers and go into hoard mode.

[iamshack]

There are literally no other cost-controlled TOR starters available right now without serious question marks. We 100% control the market. To expect the same or better market conditions a year from now is crazy. There's a non-zero chance that someone gets desperate at the deadline and you potentially get a better offer, but you must value that incremental return on a probability-adjusted basis against your downside risk. For some reason, many posters here seem to think that as long as Hahn waits, someone will eventually meet his price, which is absolutely bonkers to me. What happens if Hahn holds his ground for another year or two before realizing he overplayed his hand? He will then have to cave and accept a much lesser return than he could have originally got this offseason because Quintana is now a less valuable asset due to less control.

 

And a player's value can change significantly in a year. Look at what's happened to Sonny Gray. He'll need another four to six months of strong performance before teams consider paying a TOR starter price tag for him. God forbid Quintana gets injured and the amount of time it takes to re-establish his value is even longer. And let's not ignore that Quintana's value is directly tied to his years of control. Once he gets under three years IMO, he radically starts losing value. Again, assuming the Sox receive a strong offer, they'd be crazy not to accept in hopes of getting a perfect offer at the deadline or following offseason.

The problem is there are also no games being played today, or tomorrow, or this week. Or the last three months.

 

I really believe if the upcoming season doesn't put enough pressure on teams than the external pressures of the season progressing may.

[Con te Giolito]

What is a bigger if, Q having a bad enough year to significantly impact his trade value, or a subpar basket of prospects not making an impact in the future?

 

Even after a really bad year with an era near 5, Jeff Samardjiza signed a contract for double what Q is owed.

 

If I am betting on an outcome, I am much more willing to bet that Q is the same pitcher that he has always been, versus a basket of prospects without a top notch position player helping us in the future to a significant extent.

I would almost guarantee you that the offers currently on the table and offered by Houston, Atlanta and possibly New York are not subpar. Pittsburgh its harder to tell, they really need to include Bell or Meadows. The Astros offered Tucker, Paulino, Martes and two additional prospects for Chris Archer, you dont think there is a similar deal for Quintana? Is that return really "subpar"?

 

From all the reporting and speculation from people who seem to know these types of things the issue does not appear to be other teams lowballing the Sox, its that Hahn's asking price is unrealistic.

[bmags]

The only team that I'd really like to be more hot for Q and could be more of a player if we wait is the Yankees.

 

If Q keeps being Q and the Yankees start off hot, then we will see a team with a great match for us looking to trade (moreso than now)

 

But just as easily the Yanks could be completely out of it in June against a stacked division and re-commit to waiting on Torres/Frazier etc to bring them back.

 

That is the only team with the prospect cache that makes less sense now. Teams like Padres, Brewers, Phillies etc are not going to be suddenly there with us in six months. Whereas the Rockies are so insane there is no need to ever wait.

 

Our current group of Bucs, Braves, Houston are 3 great systems with a need. And frankly, I have no doubt we get a deal as good as that Samardjiza/Hammel deal. Most of us are proposing deals that are better than that, without a sweetener like Hammel.

[steveno89]

If Quintana turns in a 4+ ERA it will still do serious damage to his stock no matter what his FIP or WAR winds up being.

 

Be patient. Trust in the work that Hahn and Co. have done so far this offseason ti improve the club's future

 

If the right deal is offered, take it. If not, then hold onto Quintana and reevaluate at the deadline. Taking a lesser offer could really damage the rebuild, we need to sell as high as possible on our final blue chip trade piece. The Sox need a return of potential franchise players for it to work.

 

For all we know the White Sox rebuild plan could very well include other factors such as keeping Quintana for the time being. Yes, we will take a significant step back in 2017, but the team could bounce back sooner, rather than later with the right moves.

 

 

 

[bmags]

The problem is there are also no games being played today, or tomorrow, or this week. Or the last three months.

 

I really believe if the upcoming season doesn't put enough pressure on teams than the external pressures of the season progressing may.

 

It would be great if there were analysis on actual returns for pre-deadline vs offseason. I think the one position that I'd bet money would be more valuable at deadline would be middle relief. There just doesn't seem to be the motivation to go after Jones that I thought there would be, as bullpen is so volatile I think many teams squint and see it working at this point.

[southsider2k5]

I would almost guarantee you that the offers currently on the table and offered by Houston, Atlanta and possibly New York are not subpar. Pittsburgh its harder to tell, they really need to include Bell or Meadows. The Astros offered Tucker, Paulino, Martes and two additional prospects for Chris Archer, you dont think there is a similar deal for Quintana? Is that return really "subpar"?

 

From all the reporting and speculation from people who seem to know these types of things the issue does not appear to be other teams lowballing the Sox, its that Hahn's asking price is unrealistic.

 

There is no indication at all that we got that offer for Q. In fact the only report was that the Astros had turned down a MUCH small offer for Q.

 

All indications are that Pittsburgh has been unwilling to include both Bell and Meadows.

 

I have not seen any report at all on what Atlanta would be willing to offer.

 

The only thing I have seen from the Yankees is that they don't want to offer Frazier or Torres.

[steveno89]

The only team that I'd really like to be more hot for Q and could be more of a player if we wait is the Yankees.

 

If Q keeps being Q and the Yankees start off hot, then we will see a team with a great match for us looking to trade (moreso than now)

 

But just as easily the Yanks could be completely out of it in June against a stacked division and re-commit to waiting on Torres/Frazier etc to bring them back.

 

That is the only team with the prospect cache that makes less sense now. Teams like Padres, Brewers, Phillies etc are not going to be suddenly there with us in six months. Whereas the Rockies are so insane there is no need to ever wait.

 

Our current group of Bucs, Braves, Houston are 3 great systems with a need. And frankly, I have no doubt we get a deal as good as that Samardjiza/Hammel deal. Most of us are proposing deals that are better than that, without a sweetener like Hammel.

 

I'd love to see the Rockies make a play for Q and offer up Rodgers/Dahl, Hoffman/Pint, Murphy, Freeland, Tapia, Marquez (some combination of)

 

Rodgers and Dahl are going to be studs

[Con te Giolito]

The only team that I'd really like to be more hot for Q and could be more of a player if we wait is the Yankees.

 

If Q keeps being Q and the Yankees start off hot, then we will see a team with a great match for us looking to trade (moreso than now)

 

But just as easily the Yanks could be completely out of it in June against a stacked division and re-commit to waiting on Torres/Frazier etc to bring them back.

 

That is the only team with the prospect cache that makes less sense now. Teams like Padres, Brewers, Phillies etc are not going to be suddenly there with us in six months. Whereas the Rockies are so insane there is no need to ever wait.

 

Our current group of Bucs, Braves, Houston are 3 great systems with a need. And frankly, I have no doubt we get a deal as good as that Samardjiza/Hammel deal. Most of us are proposing deals that are better than that, without a sweetener like Hammel.

The Samardzija deal wasn't really that great of a trade at the time. I guess Samardzija being bad has kind of made it a no brainer but even at the time it felt like a 2 for 1 swap just to get Russell. Theo probably overplayed his hand in trade talks and/or spent a little too much time trying to hammer out an extension with Shark. Worked out well anyways for them, sometimes that's just how it plays out.

[Con te Giolito]

There is no indication at all that we got that offer for Q. In fact the only report was that the Astros had turned down a MUCH small offer for Q.

The offer that got turned down is perhaps two top 30ish players and another guy who would be probably top 20 if he were still rookie eligble. If Hahn woud've gotten that deal it would have been a coup.

[Bob Sacamano]

I'd love to see the Rockies make a play for Q and offer up Rodgers/Dahl, Hoffman/Pint, Murphy, Freeland, Tapia, Marquez (some combination of)

 

Rodgers and Dahl are going to be studs

 

Heck, give me Rodgers, Dahl plus one more guy (even a lottery ticket) and I'll take that deal. They get to keep most of their prospect depth with a strong front package.

Edited January 18, 2017 by soxfan2014

[CyAcosta41]

Fellow Sox fans! Ladies and Gentlemen! Relax. Take that chill pill.

 

Just checked the calendar. Yep. It's still 18-January.

 

Seems to me that most of the sparring here breaks down into people falling into two major factions -- (1) those who want Ranger Rick to be strong, studly, and resolute, bringing home mega value for this hugely valuable trade chip, no matter how long it takes; and (2) those who also want max value of course, but who for one reason or another have this nagging feeling that Hahn is being unrealistic and overplaying his hand (despite absolutely zero hard evidence that support this nagging feeling) and therefore he's going to botch this golden opportunity. I don't believe that there is really anyone here advocating trade for trade's sake; instead, I think those getting that tag are simply the most conservative sub-faction of Faction #2.

 

What do we actually know today? Just one thing -- Hahn is almost certainly willing to trade Jose Quintana if he likes the deal. That's it. Everything else -- EVERYTHING -- is simply rumor and supposition (including rumor and supposition almost certainly leaked/planted by the actors involved in our little drama).

 

Thing is ...

the reason it pays for everyone to relax ...

because it's 18-January, and whether you fall into Faction #1 or Faction #2, all hard evidence should make you feel comfortable.

 

If you fall into Faction #1, then it's 18-January, there is infinitely more pressure on the potential purchasers than on us, and all signs point to Rick being strong (as he was in both the Sale and Eaton deals), demanding the proper quid pro quo for his supremely valuable trade chip.

 

If you fall into Faction #2, then it's still 18-January, the season opens Sunday, 2-April (Sox open at home on Monday, 3-April), and there are roughly 75 days left before the season opens, 75 days where the pressure ratchets up on the prospective purchasers, and NOT at all on us, with Rick being able to consummate a pre-season deal at the time of his choosing that allays all of your nagging feelings (sure, weirdness can happen and Jose's arm can fall off pitching in the World Games, but Q's track record demonstrates that's a risk worth taking).

 

Seems to me that it's healthier to worry about things when it's time to worry. We're far away from the time to worry on 18-January!

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I'd love to see the Rockies make a play for Q and offer up Rodgers/Dahl, Hoffman/Pint, Murphy, Freeland, Tapia, Marquez (some combination of)

 

Rodgers and Dahl are going to be studs

It would be so Q-like for him to end up in that hitters paradise.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Mark this date on your calendars: March 10 . The World Baseball Classic , Colombia vs. the U.S. It's possible Quintana will face Bregman.

Edited January 18, 2017 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

Arguing on a message board is always healthy.

[steveno89]

Heck, give me Rodgers, Dahl plus one more guy (even a lottery ticket) and I'll take that deal. They get to keep most of their prospect depth with a strong front package.

 

A Rodgers + Dahl package would have the White Sox listening very closely

 

I don't see the Rockies offering that much, but Rodgers + Dahl + lottery arm would be a great trade

[flavum]

The country of Colombia is spelled without a U.

 

Back to the discussion...

[Baron]

So lets just say a year passes and we're in this exact same spot with Q. The guys who are on board with waiting arent going to complain if his value drops right? You'll just say it was a risk worth taking?

[CyAcosta41]

Arguing on a message board is always healthy.

 

Touche. I don't disagree.

 

There is a difference between arguing (sparring, jousting, call it what you will) and true worrying. My post was intended for those unfortunate few who are truly "worrying."

Edited January 18, 2017 by CyAcosta41