2017 International Signings

[NorthSideSox72]

They paid him something like $5 million last year. LaRoche was $12.5 million. There's some cash in the kitty.

And this front office has changed a fair amount in personnel and approach around amateur talent in the last few years. I wouldn't dismiss the idea just because it is the Sox, in this case. It's the perfect year to do it if they ever will.

 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

I really hope the Sox sign him. He's supposedly a premier talent and would definitely be a 1st round pick if he was draft eligible.

 

All it will cost the Sox is money, they need to pull the trigger at whatever price.

[Boopa1219]

I really hope the Sox sign him. He's supposedly a premier talent and would definitely be a 1st round pick if he was draft eligible.

 

All it will cost the Sox is money, they need to pull the trigger at whatever price.

 

I'd take him #1 over Hunter Greene

[bmags]

Is he capped at $10 million regardless of when he's cleared? (i.e. is the cap in effect immediately)

[southsider2k5]

Why wouldn't they do that? If they don't have other plans for the money wouldn't this be the best use of it?

 

This means they have zero agreements with anyone over $300k in 2017's class. I find that super hard to believe.

 

I also can't see the team punting on two years worth of international signings for one guy at the time they need quantity more than ever.

 

None of this sounds like the White Sox. Even if they aren't signing the top guys, they are bring guys in within the $500k to million dollar group on an annual basis.

[southsider2k5]

Normally you would be 100% correct here, but I'm thinking there may be something to this. They didn't spend much of the LaRoche money.

 

It isn't just money. It is two years worth of players, including anyone they already have a deal with over $300k for July 2, 2017.

[southsider2k5]

I thought about this possibility and mentioned it. I thought they had agreements with guys though from the way that Paddy, Hostetler, and Hahn were talking and that gave me pause.

 

Paddy made reference to a top flight pitcher earlier in the winter.

[southsider2k5]

Sox payroll has had second biggest decrease in the league from last year. There is no way money should be an issue for a transaction of this magnitude.

 

If Robert is cleared by 6/15 and the Sox dive in they get back in the international game sooner. In this scenario the Sox would have a tougher path to signing Robert but the opportunity cost for the Sox is less.

 

If Robert is cleared after 6/15, the Sox will not have to compete with teams who spent over the bonus in '16-'17 nor will they have to compete with the teams that have commitments in place for '17-'18. In this scenario, the path to signing Robert is far easier and there's reason to believe he could be cheaper, but the years of penalty extend further.

 

This is the best Latin amateur player in the world and there will be plenty of interest from most all teams allowed to vie for his services but if Vegas put odds on this there's no way the Sox can't be on the short list all things considered. This should be very interesting to watch moving forward.

 

If Robert is in the next July 2 class, the Sox have a chance. In this group? No way. Why wouldn't a team that is already over the caps just blow away the Sox offer?

[southsider2k5]

I really hope the Sox sign him. He's supposedly a premier talent and would definitely be a 1st round pick if he was draft eligible.

 

All it will cost the Sox is money, they need to pull the trigger at whatever price.

 

Again, this is not true.

[Thad Bosley]

Luis Robert just two years younger than Yoan Moncada. Best case scenario is the Sox would have one heck of a monster cornerstone heading into the Roarin' 20s!!

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Again, this is not true.

Would you rather sign a potential superstar or 10 mediocre prospects for the same amount of money?

 

For me the answer is clear.

[bmags]

I think the fact that Luis Robert is 19 makes it more likely they'd blow two classes on them. To date they have not seem swayed by the quantity argument (or quality but whatever)

[witesoxfan]

Would you rather sign a potential superstar or 10 mediocre prospects for the same amount of money?

 

For me the answer is clear.

 

Dayan Viciedo was a potential superstar with the bat too. If those are my only two options, and knowing nothing else, I'm going to spread my risk and take the 10 mediocre prospects in hopes that one or two of them can be coached up to be good or star prospects or players.

[fathom]

Give me the chance at the superstar

[witesoxfan]

Dayan Viciedo is nowhere near the prospect Robert is. Robert is the absolute best prospect coming out of Cuba. You bring up Viciedo's bat making him a potential superstar and yeah, that was all he had past a great arm wasted in LF. Robert is physically blessed. He has tools of all sorts that can make him a very productive player even if he has contact issues coming stateside.

 

Yoan Moncada is a far more comparable player to Robert. Both 19-years-old at defecting, both incredibly gifted athletes with in game results. Moncada was signed two years ago this month. He is now, by some accounts, the number 1 prospect in baseball and on the short list of the White Sox most valuable assets.

 

At the same time, while Moncada's ceiling is that of a superstar, I think a more realistic expectation is that of a very good player who flashes greatness but almost seems disappointing despite his actual value. I saw a comparison to BJ Upton (or Melvin Upton Jr, whatever).

 

This isn't to say I wouldn't want the Sox to sign Robert, nor is it to say that the Sox absolutely have to choose between 10 mediocre prospects and 1 superstar prospect. Just that, gun to my head, I'm going to spread risk opposed to putting all the eggs into one basket.

[Dick Allen]

Even if they blow through, they can still sign 10 guys for $300k each both this year and next, correct?

 

How many do they usually sign for more than that? I am thinking with the new rules, th guys getting 500k may start getting 300k. It will be interesting and if he clears quickly the Sox would still have to win a bidding war which seems unlikely. But he is 19 not 16. There is at least a little more to go on.

Edited March 1, 2017 by Dick Allen

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Dayan Viciedo is nowhere near the prospect Robert is. Robert is the absolute best prospect coming out of Cuba. You bring up Viciedo's bat making him a potential superstar and yeah, that was all he had past a great arm wasted in LF. Robert is physically blessed. He has tools of all sorts that can make him a very productive player even if he has contact issues coming stateside.

 

Yoan Moncada is a far more comparable player to Robert. Both 19-years-old at defecting, both incredibly gifted athletes with in game results. Moncada was signed two years ago this month. He is now, by some accounts, the number 1 prospect in baseball and on the short list of the White Sox most valuable assets.

Well said. Even if Robert only becomes a 2-3 WAR player at the big league level, it's still a worthwhile investment IMO, but he has the potential to be an absolute superstar.

[southsider2k5]

Would you rather sign a potential superstar or 10 mediocre prospects for the same amount of money?

 

For me the answer is clear.

 

Look up the list of guys who have signed for pennies on the dollar out of Latin America. Signing for a lot of money at age 16 isn't nearly as clear of an indicator as signing at 21 or even 18. I mean how you would like to spend $4.25 million on Michael Ynoa, so that you missed out on other guys who go on to be stars for a fraction of that price?

[southsider2k5]

I think the Sox have a better chance if he gets cleared after 6/15 but they certainly have a chance if he does get cleared prior to 6/15.

 

The Sox, or any team that has gone past the pool in the current period, have the same financial burden of signing this guy. The Sox may have a slight financial advantage given they haven't used all of their pool but that's immaterial in the grand scheme of things. The cost, as you have alluded to, is the penalty of being unable to sign significant players in future classes. Any singings that have happened in this class already are sunk costs. Regardless if a team is over and under the cap.

 

The downside of Robert being cleared in this current class is A.) for more competition with more teams involved and B.) far bigger an expenditure without a hard cap and the 100% penalty. Would it be beneficial for the Sox for Robert to be cleared after 6/15? Yes, it seems so. Would the alternative rule them out as a destination for him? Not at all.

 

If the team has agreed to any deals over $300k for July 2, 2017, they would have to go back and tell that player they aren't signing them now (assuming they sign Robert in this signing period) and risk future relationships with that trainer by reneging on the deal. That is in addition to missing out in the next class as well. For all of the debate over Tatis Jr, don't forget he signed for 800k.

[Thad Bosley]

Badler said the Sox are the team that comes up the most in discussions about where he might land. He says Sox haven't really been linked to any of the big names for 17-18 period and would have more bonus pool $$ available than everyone else. He also said that if he's cleared prior to June 15, the Sox may just sign Robert anyway and blow through their 2016-2017 pool since it wouldn't affect their 17/18 plans. Very interesting.

So I loved this article and am personally excited about the possibility obtaining yet another potential position player superstar, but the one little area in the article where the reader is left hanging a little is in the bolded above: what "discussions"? Certainly not in anything we've seen or read that's available out there. Obviously he's referring to MLB insider talks that may be going on out there, but at least in this article, this reference to "discussions" is so vague, but happy to entertain the rumor nonetheless.

[Y2Jimmy0]

If the team has agreed to any deals over $300k for July 2, 2017, they would have to go back and tell that player they aren't signing them now (assuming they sign Robert in this signing period) and risk future relationships with that trainer by reneging on the deal. That is in addition to missing out in the next class as well. For all of the debate over Tatis Jr, don't forget he signed for 800k.

 

 

For sure. Badler made it sound like they don't have commitments and are lying in the weeds. Lets say they plan on offering pretty much their entire pool to Robert after J2. He would be their only large expenditure. What people are saying is, if they agreed to a deal with him in the current period, he'd still be their top expenditure. It's the same thing. Their biggest expenditures have been Adolfo for $1.6 million and Josue Guerrero for like $1.2 million. They've had many for over $500K though. They could still sign 10 guys for $300K each if they wanted. Give me the chance at the potential superstar.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Look up the list of guys who have signed for pennies on the dollar out of Latin America. Signing for a lot of money at age 16 isn't nearly as clear of an indicator as signing at 21 or even 18. I mean how you would like to spend $4.25 million on Michael Ynoa, so that you missed out on other guys who go on to be stars for a fraction of that price?

 

You can cherrypick individual players all you want to prove your point, but it's like comparing apples to oranges. Ynoa was nowhere as highly rated as Robert and they don't play the same position either. They're not comparable.

 

It's not like signing Robert would prevent these pennies on the dollar signings anyway, so I'm not sure what your point is.

Edited March 1, 2017 by ChiSoxFanMike

[bmags]

For sure. Badler made it sound like they don't have commitments and are lying in the weeds. Lets say they plan on offering pretty much their entire pool to Robert after J2. He would be their only large expenditure. What people are saying is, if they agreed to a deal with him in the current period, he'd still be their top expenditure. It's the same thing. Their biggest expenditures have been Adolfo for $1.6 million and Josue Guerrero for like $1.2 million. They've had many for over $500K though. They could still sign 10 guys for $300K each if they wanted. Give me the chance at the potential superstar.

 

If they sign him pre 6/15, he would affect next years J2 as well. If he's posted after, it would not be possible to go over slot and be penalized.

[southsider2k5]

For sure. Badler made it sound like they don't have commitments and are lying in the weeds. Lets say they plan on offering pretty much their entire pool to Robert after J2. He would be their only large expenditure. What people are saying is, if they agreed to a deal with him in the current period, he'd still be their top expenditure. It's the same thing. Their biggest expenditures have been Adolfo for $1.6 million and Josue Guerrero for like $1.2 million. They've had many for over $500K though. They could still sign 10 guys for $300K each if they wanted. Give me the chance at the potential superstar.

 

Just because they aren't on the list for the biggest ones doesn't mean they don't have guys down the list already committed to.

[caulfield12]

You can cherrypick individual players all you want to prove your point, but it's like comparing apples to oranges. Ynoa was nowhere as highly rated as Robert and they don't play the same position either. They're not comparable.

 

It's not like signing Robert would prevent these pennies on the dollar signings anyway, so I'm not sure what your point is.

 

Fwiw, Miguel SAño was the second most hyped that year, at 16, after coming into the signing season first but sliding due to collusion with the buscones, as a rumored appeared that he was overage and lying. The mom was furious. There was an agent who wanted to push him to a team for a lesser overall price where he would have received an appreciable kickback in return. Shady stuff.

 

One example of the scouts being right, although his defensive value undercuts him.

Edited March 2, 2017 by caulfield12