2017 International Signings

[Chisoxfn]

This is far and I was with you until I saw 2 separate things. 1. Ben Badler linking the White Sox is a very big deal. 2. The Sox have no rumored agreements for 2017/2018 in a year in which many in the organization publicly stated that they'd be spending internationally. Go back and look at my posts. I was leading the charge on saying there was no way Sox would get him in this current period. I was assuming that they had agreements in place with guys though which clearly isn't the case.

Rick Hahn has also been pretty vocal to say that just because history has said we won't do something, not to assume that means we won't in the future. He certainly seemed to be hinting at the fact that the Sox are potentially going to take a different path at the international front this year.

[bmags]

I do think it will come down to costs, however. Signing Robert in the 2016-17 signing period means going to Jerry asking him to take on a certain amount of tax.

 

I think Robert salary will be depressed a bit due to the constraints of when he's signing and the all you can eat buffet so many of those teams went on.

 

If it's close to 10-12 mill, that's 19-23 million total for the Sox. That seems reasonable.

 

But obviously much beyond that it becomes untenable. No, I can't see the sox paying $30 million total with $14 mill in tax for Robert.

[harfman77]

The other piece to this equation is Otani. If he does end up coming over this winter as he has said he is going to do, and MLB sticks to its guns that there is no exception for him, someone is going to get him for a steal. The teams that are not making a splash on J2 will have a the best shot (Sox and Orioles for instance). So even if the Sox go all out for Robert in the 2017/18 J2 period and miss, they could have a really nice consolation prize in Otani.

[steveno89]

The other piece to this equation is Otani. If he does end up coming over this winter as he has said he is going to do, and MLB sticks to its guns that there is no exception for him, someone is going to get him for a steal. The teams that are not making a splash on J2 will have a the best shot (Sox and Orioles for instance). So even if the Sox go all out for Robert in the 2017/18 J2 period and miss, they could have a really nice consolation prize in Otani.

 

I fully expect the Sox to open up the checkbook in coming seasons to add to the farm and roster

 

We should have a great deal of payroll flexibility in the next few seasons, especially after guys like Frazier, Shields and Cabrera come off the books

[Y2Jimmy0]

The other piece to this equation is Otani. If he does end up coming over this winter as he has said he is going to do, and MLB sticks to its guns that there is no exception for him, someone is going to get him for a steal. The teams that are not making a splash on J2 will have a the best shot (Sox and Orioles for instance). So even if the Sox go all out for Robert in the 2017/18 J2 period and miss, they could have a really nice consolation prize in Otani.

 

 

I still doubt Otani comes over. He'll either wait until he's 25 or they'll try to make an exception for him. He's not coming over for a $8.3 million bonus.

[southsider2k5]

White Sox once set a record when they signed Joe Borchard.

 

Did anyone really expect the White Sox to give Jose Abreu the biggest contract in team history?

 

They flew to Japan and were negotiating with Tanaka.

 

 

I don't think anyone is assuming the White Sox will sign Robert. I think we are assuming that if he is eligible before the next signing period, the White Sox are still very interested and would be willing to do something they have never done. Obviously it depends on the ultimate price, but a lot of stars are aligning just like with the Abreu signing.

 

And if the White Sox had done what they had never done and had already blown through their pool by $30 million, do you really think that would make them more likely to sign Robert?

 

Absolutely. I think the teams who are already out for the next two years realize that Robert is quite literally their last chance at a quality signing for the next two years. I think that factor makes a team who is out as of July 2 much more likely to push the bidding higher knowing that this is their last chance for two years.

[southsider2k5]

By some accounts, the Sox did make the strongest offer to Tanaka in the international free agent market. They would not give him the opt out after three years the Yankees gave him though which was the differentiator.

 

The Sox have shown the willingness in the past to make a big splash internationally (Tanaka, Abreu, Soler) when they felt it made sense. They haven't always gotten their guy, but thats not all because of the money they have offered.

 

So, its not completely out of character for this org to spend big internationally. I think they are going to be a big player for Otani when he comes over.

 

I want so say the Sox were eight figures under the Yankees offer IIRC. Seems like by a year and maybe $20-30 million? I do remember the Yankees destroying our offer quite clearly.

[southsider2k5]

The other piece to this equation is Otani. If he does end up coming over this winter as he has said he is going to do, and MLB sticks to its guns that there is no exception for him, someone is going to get him for a steal. The teams that are not making a splash on J2 will have a the best shot (Sox and Orioles for instance). So even if the Sox go all out for Robert in the 2017/18 J2 period and miss, they could have a really nice consolation prize in Otani.

 

I hadn't given any thought to him. Has their been any talk of when he is expected to try to come over with the new rules?

[Dick Allen]

Absolutely. I think the teams who are already out for the next two years realize that Robert is quite literally their last chance at a quality signing for the next two years. I think that factor makes a team who is out as of July 2 much more likely to push the bidding higher knowing that this is their last chance for two years.

Answering that absolutely goes back on your theory. Since when did money not matter to the White Sox, and since when would spending $60 million make them more likely to spend another $40-50 million? At some point the Padres would be tapped.

And you can still sign guys to $300k contracts. Not bad cash to a 16 year old. And these 16 year olds are so far away anyway. It's not like 4 years from now they are staples in your line up. a 19 year old, as well regarded as Robert, is far more attractive. The Sox spent a lot on Adolfo. It's going to be a while before he pays off.

 

I don't think the 2 year penalty is a hindrance to any team. It's the final dollars.

Edited March 27, 2017 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

Answering that absolutely goes back on your theory. Since when did money not matter to the White Sox, and since when would spending $60 million make them more likely to spend another $40-50 million?

And you can still sign guys to $300k contracts. Not bad cash to a 16 year old. And these 16 year olds are so far away anyway. It's not like 4 years from now they are staples in your line up. a 19 year old, as well regarded as Robert, is far more attractive.

 

I don't think the 2 year penalty is a hindrance to any team. It's the final dollars.

 

In your made-up imaginary argumentative hypothetical the White Sox history isn't the same as it is today. My theory doesn't change at all, the circumstances do.

[bmags]

The Otani thing is hard to figure. It is almost irresponsible given what he could earn at age 25 to come over 2 (3?) years earlier and get 5-6 million.

 

BUT - he wants to play in MLB and he will primarily be a pitcher. I do wonder if cases like Kenta Maeda are what is driving this. The usage of pitchers in Japan has been heavy, and has hurt their physical outlook.

 

I wonder if that is why he wants to get over more quickly.

[Dick Allen]

In your made-up imaginary argumentative hypothetical the White Sox history isn't the same as it is today. My theory doesn't change at all, the circumstances do.

The circumstances have changed for the White Sox, so everything they did it the past is up for review.

 

 

If Robert is declared before the next signing period and they don't make a decent effort to get him, I personally will very dissappointed. Signing him depends on the dollars. Like I wrote before, I won't blame them if his price was the same as Moncada's. $60 million is a lot of money, and $30 million of that to the league right away kind of sucks. If it's half that and they weren't in the ballpark, pitchforks should be out.

[southsider2k5]

The circumstances have changed for the White Sox, so everything they did it the past is up for review.

 

 

If Robert is declared before the next signing period and they don't make a decent effort to get him, I personally will very dissappointed. Signing him depends on the dollars. Like I wrote before, I won't blame them if his price was the same as Moncada's. $60 million is a lot of money, and $30 million of that to the league right away kind of sucks. If it's half that and they weren't in the ballpark, pitchforks should be out.

 

Expectations have gotten out of control for this franchise.

[harfman77]

The Otani thing is hard to figure. It is almost irresponsible given what he could earn at age 25 to come over 2 (3?) years earlier and get 5-6 million.

 

BUT - he wants to play in MLB and he will primarily be a pitcher. I do wonder if cases like Kenta Maeda are what is driving this. The usage of pitchers in Japan has been heavy, and has hurt their physical outlook.

 

I wonder if that is why he wants to get over more quickly.

 

The other question for Otani is if he doesn't come over next season, will his team refuse to post him until his next contract is up? That could put him in the MLB at closer to 29. Otani is making $2.37M this season. He could make more here through the signing bonus/arbitration process than he will staying in Japan for another 4 years. He can be a free agent at 28 if he comes over now or at 26 if he waits to come over. The earning potential of the second contract is much higher if he can come over and demonstrate success over the next six years.

 

The other thing that teams are going to try and do is to sign him and then extend him in the way the Sox just extended Tim Anderson to try to circumvent the international signing rules. That means he would likely be signed for a one year $5.75M deal and then be "extended" following the first season to something ~$18-$20M/year for six years with one option year included.

[southsider2k5]

The other question for Otani is if he doesn't come over next season, will his team refuse to post him until his next contract is up? That could put him in the MLB at closer to 29. Otani is making $2.37M this season. He could make more here through the signing bonus/arbitration process than he will staying in Japan for another 4 years. He can be a free agent at 28 if he comes over now or at 26 if he waits to come over. The earning potential of the second contract is much higher if he can come over and demonstrate success over the next six years.

 

The other thing that teams are going to try and do is to sign him and then extend him in the way the Sox just extended Tim Anderson to try to circumvent the international signing rules. That means he would likely be signed for a one year $5.75M deal and then be "extended" following the first season to something ~$18-$20M/year for six years with one option year included.

 

Another interesting way around things would be to find him some sponsorship money

[Dick Allen]

Expectations have gotten out of control for this franchise.

Yes. It's crazy to expect a team that is slashing payroll, going into a total rebuild to bid on what many consider the second best international prospect in the world because it might cost them a 16 year old or 2 the next couple of years.

 

Out of control expectation.

[harfman77]

Another interesting way around things would be to find him some sponsorship money

 

Thats the other thing, he is going to do really well with sponsorships when he gets over here and will still be getting them from Japan as well, a piece of the total income equation that is often forgotten.

[southsider2k5]

Yes. It's crazy to expect a team that is slashing payroll, going into a total rebuild to bid on what many consider the second best international prospect in the world because it might cost them a 16 year old or 2 the next couple of years.

 

Out of control expectation.

 

Just because your 400 pound girlfriend lost 20 pounds you shouldn't expect her to be Kate Upton. The White Sox have a nearly 40 year history of this ownership group. Expecting a wide variance of that is the definition of out of control expectations. JR has ever handed out free beer either, should I expect that soon? Maybe paying for a brand new stadium of his own pocket?

[Dick Allen]

Just because your 400 pound girlfriend lost 20 pounds you shouldn't expect her to be Kate Upton. The White Sox have a nearly 40 year history of this ownership group. Expecting a wide variance of that is the definition of out of control expectations. JR has ever handed out free beer either, should I expect that soon? Maybe paying for a brand new stadium of his own pocket?

Oh like the United Center?

 

They don't spend money on draft picks yet they gave Joe Borchard a then record bonus which continued to be a record for a few years.

 

It's happened. If he's declared early, I don't expect the White Sox to sign him. But sitting out is inexcusable.

[southsider2k5]

Oh like the United Center?

 

They don't spend money on draft picks yet they gave Joe Borchard a then record bonus which continued to be a record for a few years.

 

It's happened. If he's declared early, I don't expect the White Sox to sign him. But sitting out is inexcusable.

 

Excellent, when are we breaking ground?

[Dick Allen]

Excellent, when are we breaking ground?

 

After the lease expires at the earliest.

 

But he's done it so I guess that means it will probably keep happening. If he had never of done it, it means it will never happen.

Edited March 27, 2017 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

After the lease expires at the earliest.

 

But everything is different now, no?

[Dick Allen]

But everything is different now, no?

But you used a stadium as an example of something he would never do, probably forgetting it was something he did.

 

But they don't need a stadium. They could use a 19 year old top of the line prospect CF.

 

 

You should occassionally try some new things. You might not be so bitter.

Edited March 27, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Chicago White Sox]

Yes. It's crazy to expect a team that is slashing payroll, going into a total rebuild to bid on what many consider the second best international prospect in the world because it might cost them a 16 year old or 2 the next couple of years.

 

Out of control expectation.

I actually think it's lunacy to just expect the same old White Sox. We've gone in a completely direction and the way our front office operates will be different as a result. We literally just traded two cost-controlled stars in one offseason, something that our organization has never done before. Now that our short-term goal is talent accumulation and not winning, it's crazy to think they won't change their ways. And that may mean going over their international budget for the first time, which Hahn has clearly stated is something they are considering.

[southsider2k5]

But you used a stadium as an example of something he would never do, probably forgetting it was something he did.

 

But they don't need a stadium. They could use a 19 year old top of the line prospect CF.

 

 

You should occassionally try some new things. You might not be so bitter.

 

And there it is. Thanks.