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Keith Law Farm System and Player rankings


ChiliIrishHammock24

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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 02:41 AM)
Yeeeeah, but he could have just have easily dropped him in at #97 instead of #47 if he was really blowing Tatis Jr up to get people to read his list. Unless you are inferring that Law is purposefully making some of his rankings wildly different from other rankings to draw a buzz. I can see him (or anyone) doing that for a #1 prospect (Everyone else has Moncada as the #1 prospect, Law has Gleyber Torres!), but I feel like you also want to be right to build credibility and if Law sees Tatis as #47, I would imagine the other rankers would have them in their top 100s as well.

 

And if not, then I would agree with you about the shock-and-awe tactic, although I still think that plays up at lot more at #1 than #47.

 

No, I really don't care if Tatis Jr is that highly ranked. If nothing else, it means that, even if poorly evaluated within the Sox own system, they are identifying the proper players they need to develop the minor league system. And you lose ones like that all the time. At least the White Sox get some "value" out of it - both the Astros and Marlins lost Johan Santana to the Twins, who was only the best pitcher in the majors for a stretch of about 5 years.

 

But yes, having read what raBBit has indicated, I think his rankings focus so, so, so much more on projection and potential than they do actual realistic production. Robert Stephenson going from #31 to #99 in one year did it for me. There was so little that changed that I find it hard to take him seriously anymore as anything other than a "Top 100 Ceiling" sort of guy. Tatis has reasonable height, good athleticism, and decent numbers - of course his ceiling is that of a 3-5 WAR player. His floor is also that of a player who never succeeds in AAA.

 

Trading Tatis Jr. to San Diego will never, ever bother me. Getting James Shields will bother me. That they traded Tatis Jr for Shields is irrelevant.

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Wow, I expected the bulk of our prospects to be in this #40-21 range for Law and NONE of them came up. That either means he thinks Moncada, Giolito, Kopech, and Lopez are all top 20 guys, or he really hates Lopez and doesn't even think he's top 100.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6270

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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 02:46 PM)
Wow, I expected the bulk of our prospects to be in this #40-21 range for Law and NONE of them came up. That either means he thinks Moncada, Giolito, Kopech, and Lopez are all top 20 guys, or he really hates Lopez and doesn't even think he's top 100.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6270

 

Lopez will not be in his top 100 because he believes him to be a reliever.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 02:50 PM)
Lopez will not be in his top 100 because he believes him to be a reliever.

 

He thought Sale was a reliever too, and ranked him #67.

 

He says 71. Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers has about a 40-50% chance of starting, even though he has thought it was a 0% chance in the past.

 

 

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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 03:02 PM)
He thought Sale was a reliever too, and ranked him #67.

 

He says 71. Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers has about a 40-50% chance of starting, even though he has thought it was a 0% chance in the past.

 

These prospect rankings seem to overreact big time to small sample sizes of recent performance

 

Torres is a good prospect, but how does he go from a 55 FV grade to a 65 FV grade in the span of a couple months? Scouting grades: Hit: 65 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 65 . A 65 FV hit tool coupled with 22 grade power would make him a .290 - 300 hitter with 20-22 homers per season and elite defense. Not saying that is impossible, but Yankees prospects seem to be perpetually overrated.

 

I think you could make the case that Brendan Rodgers at 55 FV is possibly underrated and Torres at 65 FV is a bit overrated

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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 03:02 PM)
He thought Sale was a reliever too, and ranked him #67.

 

He says 71. Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers has about a 40-50% chance of starting, even though he has thought it was a 0% chance in the past.

 

These prospect rankings seem to overreact big time to small sample sizes of recent performance

 

Torres is a good prospect, but how does he go from a 55 FV grade to a 65 FV grade in the span of a couple months? Scouting grades: Hit: 65 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 65 . A 65 FV hit tool coupled with 22 grade power would make him a .290 - 300 hitter with 20-22 homers per season and elite defense. Not saying that is impossible, but Yankees prospects seem to be perpetually overrated.

 

I think you could make the case that Brendan Rodgers at 55 FV is possibly underrated and Torres at 65 FV is a bit overrated

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I think he'll have Rey Lopez in his top 20. Guy is so talented and he flashed his potential as a starter in a big way last fall. He can call him a relieved all he wants but that's just not a name you can leave off a top 100 list if your a national media guy beholden to a certain degree of reason from your readers.

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QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 08:43 PM)
I think he'll have Rey Lopez in his top 20. Guy is so talented and he flashed his potential as a starter in a big way last fall. He can call him a relieved all he wants but that's just not a name you can leave off a top 100 list if your a national media guy beholden to a certain degree of reason from your readers.

 

Wanna bet? :P

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QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 08:43 PM)
I think he'll have Rey Lopez in his top 20. Guy is so talented and he flashed his potential as a starter in a big way last fall. He can call him a relieved all he wants but that's just not a name you can leave off a top 100 list if your a national media guy beholden to a certain degree of reason from your readers.

 

If Law really thinks Lopez is a reliever with a CHANCE to start, I would have figured Lopez in the 60's. If he thinks he's reliever only, then he won't be on his top 100, if he thinks he will actually start, then he will be in his top 20.

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QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 09:14 AM)
Moncada at #17? LOL. Maybe he does hate the White Sox...

 

How many of us have actually seen Moncada play. My guess not many.

My question is...How does an organization give up on a #1 Prospect they signed less than 2 years ago for a 31.5 million dollar bonus?

 

We all believe Chris Sale is awesome. but did we actually get value for this trade? Hope so, but time will tell.

 

Also, would we, as Sox fans, be up in arms if we traded away on a 21 year old #1 Prospect?

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QUOTE (southside guru @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 09:32 AM)
How many of us have actually seen Moncada play. My guess not many.

My question is...How does an organization give up on a #1 Prospect they signed less than 2 years ago for a 31.5 million dollar bonus?

 

We all believe Chris Sale is awesome. but did we actually get value for this trade? Hope so, but time will tell.

 

Also, would we, as Sox fans, be up in arms if we traded away on a 21 year old #1 Prospect?

 

Current state of the team? Yes

 

If the team was built strong at the MLB level and was trading for a top 5 pitcher in baseball with 3 cheap years of control left and had minor league depth? No

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Wow, shocked he is so low (and always has been, apparently) on Moncada. I expected to see someone put him closer to 10, but I didn't expect 17, yeeeesh.

 

He's down on Giolito, but I kind of expect that to some degree from other pubs as well. Very shocked to see him so high on Kopech. I expected Kopech around #19-20 when he wasn't on his list yet.

 

 

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While I don't agree with his ranking, I think Law having Moncada at 17 is sobering. And something that fans need to year, so we can be reminded that not all prospects pan out.

 

A lot of Sox fans have been Moncada the savior of the franchise but let's not forget that he's a 21 old kid. Who knows where is development will take him.

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