FS: Just a Bit Outside - Prospects who just missed our Top 30

[NorthSideSox72]

This week, FutureSox will be releasing our new Top 30 White Sox Prospects list. For those unfamiliar, we do these lists twice a year, in January/February and July/August. Usually we release in 2 parts - 16-30, then the full list. But this year, because the system is the deepest it's been in over a decade, we added a third layer.

 

Here is a list of 15 prospects we (the writers at FS) discussed for consideration, but who just missed the Top 30. It's kind of amazing to see that these are real prospects. There are a few names here I'm sure some of you assumed would make the T30.

 

Who is on this list that you thought for sure would be in, or should be in, the Top 30? What are your thoughts on these 15 guys?

 

FYI: Tomorrow we post 16-30, and Thursday will be the full list.

 

[steveno89]

This week, FutureSox will be releasing our new Top 30 White Sox Prospects list. For those unfamiliar, we do these lists twice a year, in January/February and July/August. Usually we release in 2 parts - 16-30, then the full list. But this year, because the system is the deepest it's been in over a decade, we added a third layer.

 

Here is a list of 15 prospects we (the writers at FS) discussed for consideration, but who just missed the Top 30. It's kind of amazing to see that these are real prospects. There are a few names here I'm sure some of you assumed would make the T30.

 

Who is on this list that you thought for sure would be in, or should be in, the Top 30? What are your thoughts on these 15 guys?

 

FYI: Tomorrow we post 16-30, and Thursday will be the full list.

 

Nice to have a few decent prospects outside our top 30

 

Our system is improving, but still has a long way to go towards improving its overall depth

[Y2Jimmy0]

This week, FutureSox will be releasing our new Top 30 White Sox Prospects list. For those unfamiliar, we do these lists twice a year, in January/February and July/August. Usually we release in 2 parts - 16-30, then the full list. But this year, because the system is the deepest it's been in over a decade, we added a third layer.

 

Here is a list of 15 prospects we (the writers at FS) discussed for consideration, but who just missed the Top 30. It's kind of amazing to see that these are real prospects. There are a few names here I'm sure some of you assumed would make the T30.

 

Who is on this list that you thought for sure would be in, or should be in, the Top 30? What are your thoughts on these 15 guys?

 

FYI: Tomorrow we post 16-30, and Thursday will be the full list.

 

 

I wouldn't have Eddy Alvarez on there but I expect to see him.

[rowand's rowdies]

Great information. Very informative.

 

My question is how are there 4 guys who have a very good shot at playing on the MLB team this season not in the Top 30?

 

How is having the talent to make the big league club, even for a few games, not enough to get you on a top 30 prospect list for a MLB team?

 

Just an honest question interested in your answer.

 

Even in our rebuilding situation I'd have to think nearly half of the top 30 prospects you're about to name will never play a single MLB game, no? I'd think a very good shot at making the team, this season at some point, should get you automatically into the Top 25 even in a deep system.

 

Maybe you can explain your thought process behind this?

 

I'm not saying Matt Davidson has to be a Top 10 prospect we have because he's going to get a chance, but you are surely going to name some high ceiling kids who haven't even played AA ball over a guy who has a small (very small, I'm not a Davidson fan) chance at becoming a MLB regular this season.

 

I would just think that reaching MLB, even as a 25th man, has more real value than a high ceiling at a very young age.

[Quin]

I'd say a combination of ceiling, expected production and circumstance. Davidson, May and Delmonico all have had their shine diminish, profile as bench players and wouldn't be getting called up if not for the fact that the Sox are rebuilding.

[NorthSideSox72]

Great information. Very informative.

 

My question is how are there 4 guys who have a very good shot at playing on the MLB team this season not in the Top 30?

 

How is having the talent to make the big league club, even for a few games, not enough to get you on a top 30 prospect list for a MLB team?

 

Just an honest question interested in your answer.

 

Even in our rebuilding situation I'd have to think nearly half of the top 30 prospects you're about to name will never play a single MLB game, no? I'd think a very good shot at making the team, this season at some point, should get you automatically into the Top 25 even in a deep system.

 

Maybe you can explain your thought process behind this?

 

I'm not saying Matt Davidson has to be a Top 10 prospect we have because he's going to get a chance, but you are surely going to name some high ceiling kids who haven't even played AA ball over a guy who has a small (very small, I'm not a Davidson fan) chance at becoming a MLB regular this season.

 

I would just think that reaching MLB, even as a 25th man, has more real value than a high ceiling at a very young age.

 

You are hitting on one of the always-debated questions around prospect evaluation - ceiling versus floor. Everyone considers both, but the balance between them is subjective. Davidson broke out in 2016 at AAA, but only after years of showing problematic swing and miss. He's seen as a guy most likely to end up providing only replacement-level value in the majors, though his chances of playing there at all are 90% if healthy. To stick with 3B's in this example, Trey Michalczewski may have only a 60% chance of reaching the majors, and less than that of being productive. But with his tools, if he puts it together enough to make it at all, he likely provides much more value when he gets there.

 

Think of it as an equation. If Matt's likely ceiling is a 0.5 WAR 3B/DH/1B role player but is 90% going to get there, and Trey's ceiling is a 2 WAR starting 3B but 50% to get there:

 

MD: 0.5 * .9 = 0.4

TM: 2.0 * .4 = 0.8

 

Thus Trey has greater "value". Obviously this is overly simplistic (it's comparing 1 year clips likely to occur in different years), but wanted to illustrate.

 

As with all prospect evaluation, I can and will be wrong at times, as will anyone else. Floor has value too.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

I've heard that a few of mine aren't even in the FutureSox top 45. Here we go:

 

1. Yoan Moncada 2B

2. Lucas Giolito RHP

3. Michael Kopech RHP

4. Zack Collins C

5. Reynaldo Lopez RHP

6. Alec Hansen RHP

7. Carson Fulmer RHP

8. Luis Alexander Basabe CF

9. Dane Dunning RHP

10. Zack Burdi RHP

11. Spencer Adams RHP

12. Charlie Tilson CF

13. Jordan Stephens RHP

14. Adam Engel OF

15. Jameson Fisher OF

16. Amado Nunez IF

17. Jordan Guerrero LHP

18. Trey Michalczewski 3B

19. Luis Curbelo IF

20. Alex Call OF

21. Micker Adolfo OF

22. Bernardo Flores LHP

23. Brian Clark LHP

24. Jake Peter Utility

25. Matt Davidson 3B

26. Dylan Covey RHP

27. Ian Hamilton RHP

28. Corey Zangari 1B

29. Victor Diaz RHP

30. Blake Hickman RHP

 

I've seen no mention of Willy Garcia anywhere. Kind of surprising.

[NorthSideSox72]

I've seen no mention of Willy Garcia anywhere. Kind of surprising.

 

This is a good point. He was added as we were making the lists, so he may not have been in scope for everyone as they built lists that became our discussion points as a group. He's definitely a guy worth considering.

 

[bmags]

Does something like Bummer being a non roster ST invite make you guys go hmm at all?

[Y2Jimmy0]

This is a good point. He was added as we were making the lists, so he may not have been in scope for everyone as they built lists that became our discussion points as a group. He's definitely a guy worth considering.

 

 

I'm not sure he's any good but he probably belongs on just missed over Courtney Hawkins lol.

[Y2Jimmy0]

How could you include Hickhman? He didn't make my top 50.

 

 

Will he not be healthy and pitching finally?

[ChiSoxFanMike]

I've heard that a few of mine aren't even in the FutureSox top 45. Here we go:

 

1. Yoan Moncada 2B

2. Lucas Giolito RHP

3. Michael Kopech RHP

4. Zack Collins C

5. Reynaldo Lopez RHP

6. Alec Hansen RHP

7. Carson Fulmer RHP

8. Luis Alexander Basabe CF

9. Dane Dunning RHP

10. Zack Burdi RHP

11. Spencer Adams RHP

12. Charlie Tilson CF

13. Jordan Stephens RHP

14. Adam Engel OF

15. Jameson Fisher OF

16. Amado Nunez IF

17. Jordan Guerrero LHP

18. Trey Michalczewski 3B

19. Luis Curbelo IF

20. Alex Call OF

21. Micker Adolfo OF

22. Bernardo Flores LHP

23. Brian Clark LHP

24. Jake Peter Utility

25. Matt Davidson 3B

26. Dylan Covey RHP

27. Ian Hamilton RHP

28. Corey Zangari 1B

29. Victor Diaz RHP

30. Blake Hickman RHP

 

I've seen no mention of Willy Garcia anywhere. Kind of surprising.

 

Why is Call so low? He had a nice season last year. I'd rate him higher for sure. Probably in the 10-15 range.

[NorthSideSox72]

Does something like Bummer being a non roster ST invite make you guys go hmm at all?

He's an unusual case. Here's what I know on Aaron, including some info he gave me directly...

 

--Drafted 19th round in 2014, but got an out-size bonus

--He's got a cannon, throws as hard as 98 mph, but was raw coming in

--After a strong pro debut in rookie ball

--Had elbow issues, and had a minor surgery to clean out some junk

--As he started recovering from that surgery, he had soreness that turned out to be a torn UCL

--Tommy John surgery - missed all of 2015 and most of 2016, before sprinting through three levels for 16.2 IP

 

So here's a guy going into his fourth season since being drafted, and he has a total of 38 pro innings. And we really don't know how the surgeries have effected him. So yes, that made me "go hmm", but I can't justify putting him even among the top 50 guys in the system right now. That could change quickly based on how he looks this spring.

 

[SoxAce]

Why is Call so low?

 

I'm more shocked Victor Diaz is that low at 29.

[bmags]

He's an unusual case. Here's what I know on Aaron, including some info he gave me directly...

 

--Drafted 19th round in 2014, but got an out-size bonus

--He's got a cannon, throws as hard as 98 mph, but was raw coming in

--After a strong pro debut in rookie ball

--Had elbow issues, and had a minor surgery to clean out some junk

--As he started recovering from that surgery, he had soreness that turned out to be a torn UCL

--Tommy John surgery - missed all of 2015 and most of 2016, before sprinting through three levels for 16.2 IP

 

So here's a guy going into his fourth season since being drafted, and he has a total of 38 pro innings. And we really don't know how the surgeries have effected him. So yes, that made me "go hmm", but I can't justify putting him even among the top 50 guys in the system right now. That could change quickly based on how he looks this spring.

 

That's crazy. Would love to know what sort of info comes in on these guys as they recover to push them back into such close watch as big league st.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I ranked Diaz somewhere 20-25 and still couldn't get him on the list. I'm with you here though.

 

 

I'm probably too low. I literally just wrote down 40 names on my plan period and put a list together. My bottom like 10 isn't researched at all.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm more shocked Victor Diaz is that low at 29.

I didn't rank Diaz in my Top 30. I think he's Robin Leyer with a couple extra ticks. Interesting to be sure, but I can't see him above the other guys I ranked. Hopefully he develops to be more than that, but right now he's on my radar but not a T30 name.

 

[steveno89]

I didn't rank Diaz in my Top 30. I think he's Robin Leyer with a couple extra ticks. Interesting to be sure, but I can't see him above the other guys I ranked. Hopefully he develops to be more than that, but right now he's on my radar but not a T30 name.

 

Diaz is a total lottery ticket

 

Much less of a track record than Leyer, but also better performance in what little track record he has

 

In 2016 Diaz posted a FIP of 3.19...not too shabby

[thxfrthmmrs]

I've heard that a few of mine aren't even in the FutureSox top 45. Here we go:

 

1. Yoan Moncada 2B

2. Lucas Giolito RHP

3. Michael Kopech RHP

4. Zack Collins C

5. Reynaldo Lopez RHP

6. Alec Hansen RHP

7. Carson Fulmer RHP

8. Luis Alexander Basabe CF

9. Dane Dunning RHP

10. Zack Burdi RHP

11. Spencer Adams RHP

12. Charlie Tilson CF

13. Jordan Stephens RHP

14. Adam Engel OF

15. Jameson Fisher OF

16. Amado Nunez IF

17. Jordan Guerrero LHP

18. Trey Michalczewski 3B

19. Luis Curbelo IF

20. Alex Call OF

21. Micker Adolfo OF

22. Bernardo Flores LHP

23. Brian Clark LHP

24. Jake Peter Utility

25. Matt Davidson 3B

26. Dylan Covey RHP

27. Ian Hamilton RHP

28. Corey Zangari 1B

29. Victor Diaz RHP

30. Blake Hickman RHP

 

I've seen no mention of Willy Garcia anywhere. Kind of surprising.

 

Slept on Luis Martinez.

[Two-Gun Pete]

21. Micker Adolfo OF

25. Matt Davidson 3B

28. Corey Zangari 1B

 

I've seen no mention of Willy Garcia anywhere. Kind of surprising.

Hey, thanks for putting together a list. At least we all have something real to discuss, since it seems as though there won't be any more trades until midseason. That said,

 

1. I agree about Willy Garcia, he should be somewhere in these lists, IMHO.

 

2. The three guys above (Adolfo, Davidson, & Zangari) are all strikeout losers who are unlikely to amount to anything. As a Sox fan, I hope that they all have miracle seasons as Trayce Thompson did in 2015, so that Hahn can sucker some other org into giving us real value in exchange for them.

 

3. People keep lauding Marco Paddy who his work, yet 5 years into his tenure, I don't see a lot of his signees in these lists, or in the big club, or doing much of anything. Hell, Adolfo & his pile of Ks & frequent injuries are used to praise Paddy, yet Adolfo sucks out loud. Why does Parry get a pass?

 

[southsider2k5]

Hey, thanks for putting together a list. At least we all have something real to discuss, since it seems as though there won't be any more trades until midseason. That said,

 

1. I agree about Willy Garcia, he should be somewhere in these lists, IMHO.

 

2. The three guys above (Adolfo, Davidson, & Zangari) are all strikeout losers who are unlikely to amount to anything. As a Sox fan, I hope that they all have miracle seasons as Trayce Thompson did in 2015, so that Hahn can sucker some other org into giving us real value in exchange for them.

 

3. People keep lauding Marco Paddy who his work, yet 5 years into his tenure, I don't see a lot of his signees in these lists, or in the big club, or doing much of anything. Hell, Adolfo & his pile of Ks & frequent injuries are used to praise Paddy, yet Adolfo sucks out loud. Why does Parry get a pass?

 

There might even be a valid point here, but when it degrades to calling players names, it loses all credibility.

[Boopa1219]

No love for Franklin Reyes?

[NorthSideSox72]

No love for Franklin Reyes?

He's got a few serious tools, but we've also gotten a number of quite negative reports on him in the past year in terms of a lack of athleticism and other factors.