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Keith Law Top 100


Y2Jimmy0

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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 10:56 AM)
Law is high on younger players it seems. I'm no expert, but I would tend to favor prospects further along in their development in the top 100 until they have proven more in the minor leagues

 

Delvin Perez has talent, but #61 based on his play in rookie ball (admittedly impressive for an 18 year old) is high

 

Law's rankings look smart for picking players that could rise up, but also I'll bet alot of these deep dives are out of the top 100 by mid season due to over projection

 

I think Law was very high on Perez pre draft, so it may be he has no reason to reexamine his priors after a decent performance at that age. STill, top 60 nearly, very high on him.

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Huh, based on Law's writeup of the Pirates' Ke'Bryan Hayes, he seems like a pretty solid 3B prospect. "... is an elite defensive third baseman right now...Hayes is going to post OBPs that are at least in the mid-.300s, maybe with 35 doubles and 10-12 homers, though the Pirates hope for a little more than that...."

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QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 12:12 PM)
Huh, based on Law's writeup of the Pirates' Ke'Bryan Hayes, he seems like a pretty solid 3B prospect. "... is an elite defensive third baseman right now...Hayes is going to post OBPs that are at least in the mid-.300s, maybe with 35 doubles and 10-12 homers, though the Pirates hope for a little more than that...."

 

I get Hayes is young for low A ball, but a 5.5% walk rate does not scream "future mid .300's OBP player"

 

Law is referring purely to ceiling on Hayes. He still has a long way to go to prove a top 75 prospect ranking.

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re: Happ "needs to work on improving his contact rate and repeating his right-handed swing...... he ends up a multi-position guy or everyday second baseman with solid OBPs and 20 homers a year......but probably enough strikeouts to keep his average down in the .260-270 range."

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 12:25 PM)
The Sox prospects have sucked, but Law was dead wrong about Sale in more ways than one, and it wasn't that he was just a reliever.

 

I'm not trying to say that Law isn't wrong about stuff, just that there is no systemic bias against the White Sox.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 08:41 AM)
http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6172

 

Keith started with 81-100 today. He had Zack Collins at 95

 

Zack Collins, C, Chicago White Sox

 

Age: 22 (2/6/95) | B/T: L/R

 

Height: 6-3 | Weight: 220

 

Top level: High-A | 2016: NE

 

The White Sox think Zack Collins can catch, and sent him out as a catcher right to the High-A Carolina League after drafting him out of the University of Miami with the 10th overall pick, making him one of only two college bats from last year's draft to go straight to High-A.

 

I don't think Collins, already big for the position and not that agile, will make it to the majors as a catcher, but I do think he can really hit, and do so with power and some on-base ability, so it might not matter in the end. When Collins keeps his swing controlled, he's short to the zone and explodes quickly from where he loads, with plenty of natural angle in his finish to hit for power, but he does get a little homer-happy and then his swing becomes unnecessarily long.

 

His pro debut went better than anyone could have expected, with a lot of strikeouts but a .258/.418/.467 line that would have placed him among the league leaders in OBP and slugging. There is absolutely some extra value in having this kind of bat behind the plate, but if Collins' bat is as advanced as I think it is, he might hit his way off the position this year.

 

Hey guys, I'm new here, guy from germany who follows the sox.

 

I think the sox should try everything to keep him at C. 10 years ago guys who can strike out, walk and hit for power were valued very highly (OBP,OPS era of sabermetrics) but in the last couple years that type of 1b/DH good OBP/power slugger has lost a lot of value on the market and you can get solid 1B guys with power on the cheap. of course he still has value there, especially at the league minimum salary but unless he hits like jim thome the value for a good but not great hitting 1B (120 OPS+) with mediocre D is limited if you go by WAR (often under 2 which is around league average for a full time starter).

 

So in the current market I don't think collins can really hit himself out of catching just with his power and patience, unless he drastically reduces his Ks and suddenly his 315 with the same kind of power because you can always buy a chris carter (or equivalent) to do the same quite cheap.

 

collins value as a DH/1b is not zero and it is a fall back plan but if you can get him to not suck at C that would be great. especially the new framing data make that interesting for not so athletic catchers. athleticism might limit blocking and throwing but even a non athlete could still become a good framer if you have the right personell to teach it (and inherent talent of the player). so if they could teach collins to frame well he could be an OK catcher even with so so blocking and throwing skills. of course not every non athlete can become a good framer and it is still not quite clear how to teach framing. it could also be that collins becomes a bad framer on top of bad blocking and throwing and in that case he indeed would be unplayable at C and needs to go back to plan B but you should give him all the time to learn framing (and get his throwing and blocking to non terrible).

 

I would definitely give him all the time he needs because a 260 bat with walks and power but no baserunning or defensive value still plays at the MLB level but is not as valuable as it used to be.

Edited by GermanSock
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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 10:56 AM)
Law is high on younger players it seems. I'm no expert, but I would tend to favor prospects further along in their development in the top 100 until they have proven more in the minor leagues

 

Delvin Perez has talent, but #61 based on his play in rookie ball (admittedly impressive for an 18 year old) is high

 

Law's rankings look smart for picking players that could rise up, but also I'll bet alot of these deep dives are out of the top 100 by mid season due to over projection

 

Law is a guy who values ceiling and projection over floor (sickels is a bit of the opposite). that is probably why he loves the big pitchers like giolito and is kinda down on guys like De leon who have excelled at every level but don't have quite the projection.

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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 09:16 AM)
Yeesh that's quite the...something on Tatis. Not surprised to see Lopez not on his list though. He had the Sox system as a whole ranked 10th so he's clearly not as high on some of our guys as most.

 

I kept hearing things like Tatis would be a top 10 pick this year if he was drafted.

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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 09:16 AM)
Yeesh that's quite the...something on Tatis. Not surprised to see Lopez not on his list though. He had the Sox system as a whole ranked 10th so he's clearly not as high on some of our guys as most.

 

 

Exactly. They have 4 top 100 guys from Law. I bet Hansen is on his just missed list because he said a couple months back that Hansen would be top 100. I think mob pipeline with have 7 Sox in the top 100 (Moncada, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Collins, Fulmer, and Basabe). If they stretched to 150, probably Burdi and Hansen as well.

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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 09:24 AM)
Look, you have to give up something to get a stud like big game James.

 

Their immediate gratification way of running development really bit them here. Regardless of if he makes it, would be a nice piece to have for selling later.

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QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 09:24 AM)
Literally the worst starting pitcher in baseball. IN HAHN WE TRUST /yawn

 

While Tatis was always an interesting guy, to be fair, Law is the only guy who is going to have him in his top 100, let alone top 50. I think we'd all like to have Tatis back, but I'm not ready to crown him a legit prospect yet.

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