Keith Law Top 100

[Balta1701]

It will be hard to get worse production in CF and catcher than last year

CF, true. Catcher? Avila gave that team 200 non-terrible at bats. Navarro's handling of the staff was rotten but those basically balance out. The catcher's spot could absolutely be substantially worse than last year. If I had to guess I'd guess it'll be about the same - replacement level with Soto and Narvaez taking up most of the time, it could be slightly better, it could be substantially worse.

[fathom]

CF, true. Catcher? Avila gave that team 200 non-terrible at bats. Navarro's handling of the staff was rotten but those basically balance out. The catcher's spot could absolutely be substantially worse than last year. If I had to guess I'd guess it'll be about the same - replacement level with Soto and Narvaez taking up most of the time, it could be slightly better, it could be substantially worse.

 

Wasn't the combo easily the worst at framing?

[Con te Giolito]

I dont think it gets worse than Dioner Navarro last year. The catchers spot will improve because it has to.

[Special K]

And they both have salaries that make them not worth their production plus a prospect in order to get them. I mean sure we could get the next Colton Turner, and if that is what you are talking about, sure. But in terms of someone that will show up on a prospect list? No. Not even in the pre-rebuild days.

 

I know this is unorthodox for Sox and I'm not in charge of finances, but if it were me I'd try to eat salary if it meant moving those guys for something of value. Especially given the fact that they're both on contracts that expire.

[soxforlife05]

I wouldn't worry about this any more or less than than anyone may/may not have at the time of the trade. Law's rankings are always much more based on "tools" than on actual achievements. Not saying it's bad or good. All prospect rankings are a combination of these 2 considerations. Some tend to lean more to one side or the other though, and Law's are definitely toward the "tools" side. Most other publications do not regard Tatis even reasonably close to as highly as Law. For example, while most other publications haven't released their overall prospect rankings, Baseball America didn't even have him in the Padres Top 10, and noted that he was "not all that close" to making it. MLB Pipeline hasn't come out with their overall prospect rankings or their team rankings yet, but didn't have Tatis on either their new top 10 SS or Top 10 3b rankings, both of which are littered with guys Law had ranked ahead of Tatis. Baseball Prospectus ranks Tatis as the 6th best Padres prospect, but again well below many guys in that system Law has already ranked below Tatis. The best guess would be that Tatis would be a borderline Top 100 guy when Baseball Prospectus comes out with their rankings, and most likely left off.

 

Ultimately, this is an 18 year old who has an absolute ton of raw tools, but has not played much pro ball at all (237 PA total), and what he has played was mostly at Rookie Ball (188 PA) and only a bit at Low A (49 PA), where it's not as if he tore the cover off the ball. I get that much more than that can't be expected since he was 17 last season, but it also means there isn't really sufficient info to reasonably project the degree of his future big league contributions or even whether he'll make any at all, to even nearly the degree we can with other top propsects (which itself really isn't that great, http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/de...-mckinneys.html).

 

Of course, in hindsight, it is painful to give up a prospect of any value whatsoever (which Tatis undoubtedly is) for James Shields, but just like there is risk on the prospect side of any deal (like the significant chance that Tatis, or even much more accomplished minor league prospects w/ similar tools may not ever contribute at the major league level, or at least not much), there is also risk on the MLB player side of a deal, especially when you're dealing with a lesser level pool of MLB players available to you via trade, due to the organization's severe lack of the quality and quantity of minor leaguers it would take to acquire MLB players from a better talent pool of trade candidates, at that time. Even at the time of the acquisition, the Sox knew they weren't acquiring the 2011-2014 version of Shields. They were playing really well, thought they could contend (however ill-conceived that proposition may now seem in hindsight), saw a gaping hole on the big league roster, had no internal options to improve it, and acquired the player who they reasonably believed gave them the best chance to address that hole, even if they knew it was far from a sure thing that he ultimately would do so, for a uber-talented 17 year old whom neither they, nor anyone else, has anything close to any idea whether he will ever be an everyday major league player. Shields didn't work out, as was a distinct possibility at the time of the deal, and Tatis is still and uber-talented 18 year old whom, to the same degree as was the case at the time the Sox traded him, neither the Sox nor anyone else has anything close to any idea whether he will ever be an every day major league player.

 

I don't care how you try to rationalize it. It was a horrible deal. It was at the time and it still is now. Plenty of people hated it when announced. I was one.

[Con te Giolito]

There's being a front office apologist and then there's defending the Shields trade. Even Rick Hahn's dog knew that was a bad trade the instant they made it, let alone now.

[Panerista]

There's being a front office apologist and then there's defending the Shields trade. Even Rick Hahn's dog knew that was a bad trade the instant they made it, let alone now.

[soxforlife05]

There's being a front office apologist and then there's defending the Shields trade. Even Rick Hahn's dog knew that was a bad trade the instant they made it, let alone now.

 

You might want to go on record with your opinions before claiming everyone felt that way, because that definitely wasn't the case. Go back and read the Shields thread.

 

Going on record helps get rid of the Carpe Diem types awful fast.

Edited January 26, 2017 by soxforlife05

[witesoxfan]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-...s-shields-deal/

 

Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 40/50, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 50/45, Field: 40/45, Throw: 60/60, FV: 40

 

I will be the first to tell you how much I respect Law's opinion, but to suggest that he doesn't have any sort of agenda is BS.

[QuickJones81]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-...s-shields-deal/

 

 

 

I will be the first to tell you how much I respect Law's opinion, but to suggest that he doesn't have any sort of agenda is BS.

 

Explain his motivation here? If he changes his evaluations for an agenda he will be less accurate. Poor accuracy over time puts his job in jeopardy. Furthermore, no one he may have an axe to grind with in the white Sox organization pays attention to his list. They are reliant on their own scouts and lists. So wheres the payoff for Law? Just to aggravate Sox fans? Please. I think in reality he tends to swing pessimistic on prospects he's not in love with. We as fans want these prospects to be stars, so we swing optimistic. So we won't agree with him often. That doesn't mean he has an agenda. More likely he is far less biased than you are and making a fair assessment based on the things he believes are significant to projecting success supported by a history of feedback. Sorry it doesn't fit with your fantasy of future greatness.

 

[Jake]

Honestly I've never gotten the impression that there's a bunch of pressure on the prospect pundits to be accurate. I think that would be especially true at ESPN, whose reputation is not at all at stake. Part of it is that I don't think anybody is really going back and checking all that often, not to mention that there aren't necessarily clear criteria for retroactively grading someone's prospect rankings.

[Y2Jimmy0]

60. Thomas Szapicki LHP NYM

59. Kevin Maitan SS Atlanta

58. Raimel Tapia OF Colorado

57. Kyle Tucker OF Houston

56. Franklin Barreto SS Oakland

55. Anthony Alford OF Toronto

54. Brent Honeywell RHP Tampa Bay

53. Nick Gordon SS Minnesota

52. Ian Anderson RHP Atlanta

51. Carson Kelly C St. Louis

50. Max Fried LHP Atlanta

49. Jesse Winker OF Cincinnati

48. Vladimir Guerrero Jr 3B Toronto

47. Fernando Tatis Jr 3B San Diego

46. Yadier Alvarez RHP LAD

45. Jorge Alfaro C Philadelphia

44. Aaron Judge OF NYY

43. Willy Adames 2B Tampa Bay

42. Braxton Garrett LHP Miami

41. Isan Diaz 2B Milwaukee

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6270

 

40. Walker Buehler RHP LAD

39. Amir Garrett LHP Cincinnati

38. Lewis Brinson OF Milwaukee

37. Francis Martes RHP Houston

36. Ronald Acuna OF Atlanta

35. Leody Taveras OF Texas

34. Corey Ray OF Milwaukee

33. Kevin Newman SS Pittsburgh

32. Kolby Allard LHP Atlanta

31. Alex Verdugo OF LAD

30. Mickey Moniak OF Philadelphia

29. Dominic Smith 1B NYM

28. James Kapreilian RHP NYY

27. Clint Frazier OF NYY

26. Ozhiano Albies SS Atlanta

25. Tyler Glasnow RHP Pittsburgh

24. Manuel Margot OF San Diego

23. Cal Quantrill RHP Stanford

22. Blake Rutherford OF NYY

21. Anderson Espinosa RHP San Diego

[Dick Allen]

Explain his motivation here? If he changes his evaluations for an agenda he will be less accurate. Poor accuracy over time puts his job in jeopardy. Furthermore, no one he may have an axe to grind with in the white Sox organization pays attention to his list. They are reliant on their own scouts and lists. So wheres the payoff for Law? Just to aggravate Sox fans? Please. I think in reality he tends to swing pessimistic on prospects he's not in love with. We as fans want these prospects to be stars, so we swing optimistic. So we won't agree with him often. That doesn't mean he has an agenda. More likely he is far less biased than you are and making a fair assessment based on the things he believes are significant to projecting success supported by a history of feedback. Sorry it doesn't fit with your fantasy of future greatness.

When you are a GM or scouting director, you are held to what you get wrong, and expected to get everything right. When you are making prospect lists for ESPN or fangraphs or BA or BP, you are praised for what you eventually get right, and not held to what you get wrong. Outside of the top maybe 20 guys if that, most of the top 200 prospects if you are including 17 years olds, are pretty interchangeable. There have been eventual stars never ranked, and busts in the top 10. How many times has Law seen each of the guys he has ranked actually play? He can throw Tatis Jr. out there because he did fine for a 17 year old, and has some pedigree. If he's right, he ranked him higher than anyone else. If he's wrong? Who cares?

 

 

Tatis Jr. just turned 18, if he makes it, he's a long ways off. He is still ranked a lot lower than Law ranked Joey Gallo a couple of years ago, when Gallo was even more developed. Anytime anyone mentions his name in a trade with Texas, it isn't met with a lot of enthusiam.

 

In the end, it's far more likely we will forget Fernando Tatis Jr. even exists in several years than we will be whining how could the Sox have given up on this guy.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Dick Allen

[SoxAce]

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6270

 

40. Walker Buehler RHP LAD

39. Amir Garrett LHP Cincinnati

38. Lewis Brinson OF Milwaukee

37. Francis Martes RHP Houston

36. Ronald Acuna OF Atlanta

35. Leody Taveras OF Texas

34. Corey Ray OF Milwaukee

33. Kevin Newman SS Pittsburgh

32. Kolby Allard LHP Atlanta

31. Alex Verdugo OF LAD

30. Mickey Moniak OF Philadelphia

29. Dominic Smith 1B NYM

28. James Kapreilian RHP NYY

27. Clint Frazier OF NYY

26. Ozhiano Albies SS Atlanta

25. Tyler Glasnow RHP Pittsburgh

24. Manuel Margot OF San Diego

23. Cal Quantrill RHP Stanford

22. Blake Rutherford OF NYY

21. Anderson Espinosa RHP San Diego

 

Wow..

[joejoedairy]

Wow..

 

So, this means Law has Keller higher than Glasnow. I wonder if that is how the Pirates rank them.

[OmarComing25]

There's being a front office apologist and then there's defending the Shields trade. Even Rick Hahn's dog knew that was a bad trade the instant they made it, let alone now.

You guys just aren't thinking long-term enough, the Shields trade will end up being one of Hahn's best moves.

 

Hahn knew that Shields is set to have the worst season of all-time in 2017, where he'll give up at least 4 runs in every start (with the lone exception of him inexplicably dominating the Cubs again and striking out Bryant 4 times, but thankfully we still lose due to a badly misplayed flyball by Avi) and the Sox will lose every single game he starts. On the back of Shields' historic awfulness, the Sox and Padres will be tied going into the last game of the season. Moncada goes 5-5 and hits for the cycle but Big Game James comes through in the clutch again with a 4 HR performance. Despite being so young, Tatis Jr. has surprisingly tore up the minors and has earned a September call-up. The Padres enter the 9th inning down a run but start a rally with 2 outs. Tatis Jr. becomes a White Sox hero when he knocks in two runs with the game winning single, securing the #1 overall pick for the White Sox. He goes on to become a solid regular but Sox fans quickly forget about him when Seth Beer becomes the first non-Trout AL player to lead the league in WAR in nearly a decade in his rookie year, leading the Sox to the playoffs.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

You guys just aren't thinking long-term enough, the Shields trade will end up being one of Hahn's best moves.

 

Hahn knew that Shields is set to have the worst season of all-time in 2017, where he'll give up at least 4 runs in every start (with the lone exception of him inexplicably dominating the Cubs again and striking out Bryant 4 times, but thankfully we still lose due to a badly misplayed flyball by Avi) and the Sox will lose every single game he starts. On the back of Shields' historic awfulness, the Sox and Padres will be tied going into the last game of the season. Moncada goes 5-5 and hits for the cycle but Big Game James comes through in the clutch again with a 4 HR performance. Despite being so young, Tatis Jr. has surprisingly tore up the minors and has earned a September call-up. The Padres enter the 9th inning down a run but start a rally with 2 outs. Tatis Jr. becomes a White Sox hero when he knocks in two runs with the game winning single, securing the #1 overall pick for the White Sox. He goes on to become a solid regular but Sox fans quickly forget about him when Seth Beer becomes the first non-Trout AL player to lead the league in WAR in nearly a decade in his rookie year, leading the Sox to the playoffs.

 

This is great.

[Y2Jimmy0]

So, this means Law has Keller higher than Glasnow. I wonder if that is how the Pirates rank them.

 

 

He might not have Keller in the top 20....I'm thinking for sure he has: Moncada, Giolito, Kopech, Swanson, Benintendi, Reyes, Rodgers, Meadows, Robles, Crawford, Rosario, Devers, Torres, Jimenez, Groome, Bellinger, and Senzel. That leaves 3 spots for: Josh Bell, Tyler, Jay, Nick Williams, and Brady Aiken probably.

[southsider2k5]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-...s-shields-deal/

 

 

 

I will be the first to tell you how much I respect Law's opinion, but to suggest that he doesn't have any sort of agenda is BS.

 

Future Value 40. That is below average.

[Con te Giolito]

He might not have Keller in the top 20....I'm thinking for sure he has: Moncada, Giolito, Kopech, Swanson, Benintendi, Reyes, Rodgers, Meadows, Robles, Crawford, Rosario, Devers, Torres, Jimenez, Groome, Bellinger, and Senzel. That leaves 3 spots for: Josh Bell, Tyler, Jay, Nick Williams, and Brady Aiken probably.

He may not rank Swanson because all Swanson has to do is lace up opening day to lose eligibility. Brady Aiken is not in the top 20 unless Law has some fascination with him I wasn't aware of.

[southsider2k5]

Honestly I've never gotten the impression that there's a bunch of pressure on the prospect pundits to be accurate. I think that would be especially true at ESPN, whose reputation is not at all at stake. Part of it is that I don't think anybody is really going back and checking all that often, not to mention that there aren't necessarily clear criteria for retroactively grading someone's prospect rankings.

 

This is a really good point. Outside of a very few instances, I can't recall prospect hypers being taken to the mat over their ratings and rankings years down the road. I mean the one thing that comes to mind is the whole Chris Sale is a reliever thing, but in general? I can't recall anything substantively ever being done.

[Y2Jimmy0]

He may not rank Swanson because all Swanson has to do is lace up opening day to lose eligibility. Brady Aiken is not in the top 20 unless Law has some fascination with him I wasn't aware of.

 

 

He loved Aiken and Tyler Jay in the past

[Con te Giolito]

He loved Aiken and Tyler Jay in the past

I love my dog. I'm not putting my dog in the top 20.

 

Aiken has a lot, lot, lot working against him right now and to rank him ahead of some of those guys already put in the 21-40 range would be crazy.

[Southwest Sider]

As I suspected, our farm is very very top heavy to a guy like Law. We gotta hope Hahn can come through for us with successful trades of our secondary pieces in the time leading up to the trade deadline to fill in the depth of our farm.

 

It's not easy pulling off a rebuild, but you could argue that the hardest part is getting the top of your farm in order. This is why Hahn isn't messing around with the Quintana deal. He wants to add 1-2 more top pieces and then go for the best-available pieces for guys like Jones, Robertson, Frazier, Melky, Lawrie, Gonzalez etc.

 

Hopefully in one years time there will be more White Sox on this top 100 list.

[ChiSox59]

As I suspected, our farm is very very top heavy to a guy like Law. We gotta hope Hahn can come through for us with successful trades of our secondary pieces in the time leading up to the trade deadline to fill in the depth of our farm.

 

It's not easy pulling off a rebuild, but you could argue that the hardest part is getting the top of your farm in order. This is why Hahn isn't messing around with the Quintana deal. He wants to add 1-2 more top pieces and then go for the best-available pieces for guys like Jones, Robertson, Frazier, Melky, Lawrie, Gonzalez etc.

 

Hopefully in one years time there will be more White Sox on this top 100 list.

 

There will probably be less as Moncada, Giolito, Lopez and Fulmer will have all graduated.