Keith Law Top 100

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

No one wants them. They have zero trade value.

This simply isn't true.

[JRL]

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6248

 

No White Sox in Law's 41-60. I'm expecting just Moncada, Kopech, and Giolito. He has Fernando Tatis Jr at #47. Yes, that Fernando Tatis Jr.

 

I wouldn't worry about this any more or less than than anyone may/may not have at the time of the trade. Law's rankings are always much more based on "tools" than on actual achievements. Not saying it's bad or good. All prospect rankings are a combination of these 2 considerations. Some tend to lean more to one side or the other though, and Law's are definitely toward the "tools" side. Most other publications do not regard Tatis even reasonably close to as highly as Law. For example, while most other publications haven't released their overall prospect rankings, Baseball America didn't even have him in the Padres Top 10, and noted that he was "not all that close" to making it. MLB Pipeline hasn't come out with their overall prospect rankings or their team rankings yet, but didn't have Tatis on either their new top 10 SS or Top 10 3b rankings, both of which are littered with guys Law had ranked ahead of Tatis. Baseball Prospectus ranks Tatis as the 6th best Padres prospect, but again well below many guys in that system Law has already ranked below Tatis. The best guess would be that Tatis would be a borderline Top 100 guy when Baseball Prospectus comes out with their rankings, and most likely left off.

 

Ultimately, this is an 18 year old who has an absolute ton of raw tools, but has not played much pro ball at all (237 PA total), and what he has played was mostly at Rookie Ball (188 PA) and only a bit at Low A (49 PA), where it's not as if he tore the cover off the ball. I get that much more than that can't be expected since he was 17 last season, but it also means there isn't really sufficient info to reasonably project the degree of his future big league contributions or even whether he'll make any at all, to even nearly the degree we can with other top propsects (which itself really isn't that great, http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/de...-mckinneys.html).

 

Of course, in hindsight, it is painful to give up a prospect of any value whatsoever (which Tatis undoubtedly is) for James Shields, but just like there is risk on the prospect side of any deal (like the significant chance that Tatis, or even much more accomplished minor league prospects w/ similar tools may not ever contribute at the major league level, or at least not much), there is also risk on the MLB player side of a deal, especially when you're dealing with a lesser level pool of MLB players available to you via trade, due to the organization's severe lack of the quality and quantity of minor leaguers it would take to acquire MLB players from a better talent pool of trade candidates, at that time. Even at the time of the acquisition, the Sox knew they weren't acquiring the 2011-2014 version of Shields. They were playing really well, thought they could contend (however ill-conceived that proposition may now seem in hindsight), saw a gaping hole on the big league roster, had no internal options to improve it, and acquired the player who they reasonably believed gave them the best chance to address that hole, even if they knew it was far from a sure thing that he ultimately would do so, for a uber-talented 17 year old whom neither they, nor anyone else, has anything close to any idea whether he will ever be an everyday major league player. Shields didn't work out, as was a distinct possibility at the time of the deal, and Tatis is still and uber-talented 18 year old whom, to the same degree as was the case at the time the Sox traded him, neither the Sox nor anyone else has anything close to any idea whether he will ever be an every day major league player.

[Special K]

No one wants them. They have zero trade value.

 

Melky had a good year last year. Frazier hit 40 hrs. They could be traded for some flyer prospects.

[Bob Sacamano]

Melky had a good year last year. Frazier hit 40 hrs. They could be traded for some flyer prospects.

 

They have to decide in July if "some flyer prospects" or the potential compensation pick is going to be the route to go with Frazier.

Edited January 25, 2017 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

Melky had a good year last year. Frazier hit 40 hrs. They could be traded for some flyer prospects.

 

And they both have salaries that make them not worth their production plus a prospect in order to get them. I mean sure we could get the next Colton Turner, and if that is what you are talking about, sure. But in terms of someone that will show up on a prospect list? No. Not even in the pre-rebuild days.

[NCsoxfan]

Law ranks Tatis Jr 47 on his list...

 

47. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS/3B, San Diego Padres

 

.....Within a few weeks, it became evident that the Padres had landed an outstanding prospect in the least-known part of the deal, as Tatis blew scouts in the AZL away and held his own at 17 in the advanced short-season Northwest League.

 

Tatis is an advanced hitter already at 17, with great feel for the game on both sides of the ball, including a good hitting approach for that age and a strong frame (he has his father’s square shoulders) that should produce at least average power but probably more......... His hands are loose, and he has a quick transfer in the field with a plus arm, so if the body moves him to third base in time -- as is about 80 percent likely -- he has the arm for it and will be at least a 60-grade defender there.....

 

......... There’s risk, given his age, but we might look back on this deal in a few years and call it the Fernando Tatis trade.

[Quin]

Already discussed.

[flavum]

MLB Network will have their Top 100 Prospects, Saturday at 7pm.

[OmarComing25]

Does it look like they are trading everyone still?

 

Also it was more like a month ago that I said that. If they do still unload everyone I'll go back to thinking they could have a high 2018 draft pick, but right now this is probably a 75+ win team.

I'm just confused as to how you think Frazier/Quintana by themselves are the difference between 75 wins and a potential 120 loss season. Even with Quintana projections have the Sox as the 3rd worst team in baseball at the moment. That might be a bit low considering the impact Moncada/Lopez/Giolito could have when they come up, but I don't think it's far off. This team is bad, and as things stand I'm not sure any other AL team should be considered below us, even the Twins. In the NL I think the Padres, Reds and Brewers are the only teams I'd really put us above right now, but with the relative weakness of the NL I'm not even that confident about it.

[Con te Giolito]

I'm just confused as to how you think Frazier/Quintana by themselves are the difference between 75 wins and a potential 120 loss season. Even with Quintana projections have the Sox as the 3rd worst team in baseball at the moment. That might be a bit low considering the impact Moncada/Lopez/Giolito could have when they come up, but I don't think it's far off. This team is bad, and as things stand I'm not sure any other AL team should be considered below us, even the Twins. In the NL I think the Padres, Reds and Brewers are the only teams I'd really put us above right now, but with the relative weakness of the NL I'm not even that confident about it.

Losing Frazier changes their ability to compete on a game-by-game basis and replacing Quintana with somelike Dylan Covey could result in a massive swing.

[Bob Sacamano]

I'm just confused as to how you think Frazier/Quintana by themselves are the difference between 75 wins and a potential 120 loss season. Even with Quintana projections have the Sox as the 3rd worst team in baseball at the moment. That might be a bit low considering the impact Moncada/Lopez/Giolito could have when they come up, but I don't think it's far off. This team is bad, and as things stand I'm not sure any other AL team should be considered below us, even the Twins. In the NL I think the Padres, Reds and Brewers are the only teams I'd really put us above right now, but with the relative weakness of the NL I'm not even that confident about it.

 

Oakland has to be below us.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Oakland has to be below us.

 

 

Do they though? Their lineup is probably than the Sox.

 

Vogt/Phegley, Khris Davis, Rajai Davis, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Semien, Plouffe, Healy is better than Sox lineup I think.

 

Pitching staff has Gray/Graveman/Manaea.

 

They aren't good. Not "definitely" worse than Sox though

[Boopa1219]

Who would you guys comp Collins to?

[bmags]

Do they though? Their lineup is probably than the Sox.

 

Vogt/Phegley, Khris Davis, Rajai Davis, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Semien, Plouffe, Healy is better than Sox lineup I think.

 

Pitching staff has Gray/Graveman/Manaea.

 

They aren't good. Not "definitely" worse than Sox though

 

Plus I feel like oakland will pick up a few more FAs searching for teams.

[steveno89]

Who would you guys comp Collins to?

 

Mike Napoli I think is a reasonable comparison to make for Zack Collins

[Y2Jimmy0]

Who would you guys comp Collins to?

 

 

Brian McCann

[ptatc]

Outfield is somewhere between substandard and brutal

Catching mediocre, second base meh

Four and five spots in the rotation would have to improve to be called question marks.

That's before inevitable injuries.

With or without Q, this is a train wreck.

 

 

You could even argue that injuries could result in more talented players being called up.

I would disagree a little.

 

OF: Cabrera should be at least average, They should hope tilson will be pretty good, garcia yuck

3B above average with HR and defense

SS: hopefully anderson is pretty good.

2B: Lawrie should be pretty good

1B: Abreu should be good

C: who knows

 

The lineup will not be will not be at the bottom of the league in scoring. They were 20th in OPS and runs scored last year. Should be about the same.

[fathom]

Guessing Moncada 7, Giolito 9 and Kopech 22

[Chicago White Sox]

I would disagree a little.

 

OF: Cabrera should be at least average, They should hope tilson will be pretty good, garcia yuck

3B above average with HR and defense

SS: hopefully anderson is pretty good.

2B: Lawrie should be pretty good

1B: Abreu should be good

C: who knows

 

The lineup will not be will not be at the bottom of the league in scoring. They were 20th in OPS and runs scored last year. Should be about the same.

20th in OPS & runs scored is pretty brutal when you play 81 games at the Rate.

[Chicago White Sox]

Guessing Moncada 7, Giolito 9 and Kopech 22

Where did Law rank Moncada last year? No way he should drop much (if at all) based on his 2016 results.

[ptatc]

20th in OPS & runs scored is pretty brutal when you play 81 games at the Rate.

I'm not saying it's good. i'm just saying it won't rival for the worst in the MLB as some were saying. There will be more than a few teams with a worse offense than the Sox.

[fathom]

Where did Law rank Moncada last year? No way he should drop much (if at all) based on his 2016 results.

 

Know for sure he has Devers higher. Would bet Torres is also.0

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

I would disagree a little.

 

OF: Cabrera should be at least average, They should hope tilson will be pretty good, garcia yuck

3B above average with HR and defense

SS: hopefully anderson is pretty good.

2B: Lawrie should be pretty good

1B: Abreu should be good

C: who knows

 

The lineup will not be will not be at the bottom of the league in scoring. They were 20th in OPS and runs scored last year. Should be about the same.

In effect we're replacing Eaton with Tilson, or worse if Tilson's injury hampers his speed. We thought Lawrie would be pretty good last year. I certainly agree about Anderson and Frazier although we now hear he has an injury to his left hand, but overall it's tough to be optimistic

[Balta1701]

In effect we're replacing Eaton with Tilson, or worse if Tilson's injury hampers his speed. We thought Lawrie would be pretty good last year. I certainly agree about Anderson and Frazier although we now hear he has an injury to his left hand, but overall it's tough to be optimistic

If you see predictions based on the idea that here's a list of 6 players and all of them will do better than last year...you are looking at predictions that have a serious flaw. Timmy has a good shot at outperforming our SS production from last year because he'll be in his 2nd year and hopefully a full year + improvement for him helps. But all the other guys...yes some of them will likely be better than last year, but it's equally likely that some of them will be worse, and no one else from that group is young enough that you'd expect a major breakout year.

 

[fathom]

It will be hard to get worse production in CF and catcher than last year