Discussion: How the Sox compete in 2017

[witesoxfan]

The Sox are rebuilding. They traded their two best assets away and sold off somewhere around 8-10 wins, which takes an 81 win underachieving team to a 75 win perfectly achieving team.

 

There are a few of you who know though. I won't name names (because I f***ing can't name names anymore, s***, there are too many of you who are new) who just so happened to catch on to the fact that the Sox traded [GASP] clubhouse cancers. Maybe the Sox really do believe they have a chance at competing next year. KW is still Senior VP and still Rick Hahn's boss - they didn't acquire these guys to compete 3 years down the road. They are winning it all this year, buddy.

 

The first part of this exercise is that you can only trade with teams projected for 78 wins or fewer according to the FanGraphs projected standings for 2017 (***excluding the Rockies, including the Rays***, whose projections do not appear to reflect the apparent intentions of the current clubs, given the Rays selling Smyly and the Rockies buying Holland and Desmond).

 

The second part is that these have to be logical offers, and any suggestion you make must be justifiable. I don't care about names unless they are big prospects, because the Sox have lottery tickets within the system that can complete a lot of deals. They also have lottery tickets that can buy salary.

 

The third part is that you can only add one bad contract. As an example, the guy I'm going to use in mine is Joe Mauer, because he's like a 1 WAR player as a 1B, but you move him back to catcher, even 1/3 of the time, and that value increases by probably about 1 full win. A 2 WAR Joe Mauer at $23 million is now slightly justifiable.

 

The fourth part is that you cannot sign a free agent for more than 1 year guaranteed. No player or club options. Vesting options work. The Sox are selling everything for this season, because they know they got it, ala the '97 or '03 Marlins. This will be the year. The product will almost literally be a tire fire beyond 2017. It gets ugly.

 

Finally, we will look past luxury tax penalties so long as you are not bringing in every single player who makes $15 million a year. Assume there is no budget, so long as there is no long-term ramification.

 

(NOTE: Author may or may not be slightly intoxicated)

 

With that said, I'll give it a shot:

 

-Sox trade Yoan Moncada, Reynaldo Lopez, Avisail Garcia, and lottery ticket to Minnesota for Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Ervin Santana, Joe Mauer, and Glen Perkins.

--soooooo much salary (almost $50 million), but, based on Steamer projections, the Sox gain 8.4 WAR, and that could easily be better (or much, much worse). The Sox fill their hole at 2B, RF, and C, even if C is only 60 games of the year. No one on this list is signed beyond 2018, so a small jumpstart to the rebuild is possible. The Twins take this because they are way further away than they realized and get the unquestioned #1 prospect in the game, plus a phenomenal arm, a highly talented player, and a linebacker playing baseball, plus they rid themselves of soooooo much salary.

 

[+1 WAR added to Mauer based on play at C]

 

NET EFFECT: 79.4 WINS

 

-Sox trade Adam Engel and Dane Dunning to San Diego for Carter Capps

--the Sox trade some high upside players for a high leverage reliever. Sox are overpaying to end games sooner and build the bullpen with a highly talented player likely to make his way towards the Bourjos line and a recent pick.

 

NET EFFECT: 80.1 WINS

 

-Sox trade Lucas Giolito, Alex Hansen, and lottery pick for Kevin Kiermaier

--the Sox trade arguably the #1 pitching prospect in the game, plus a super high upside arm and another "player" for an established dominant defensive player who also happens to provide some value on offense.

 

NET EFFECT: 84.5 WINS

 

-Sox sign Chris Carter, 1 year, $8 million

--a homecoming, Carter is projected at 0.4 WAR as a 1B, but he will hardly see the field, which will allow us to take his projected -11 runs defensively into effect according to positional adjustment (DH is -17.5 compared to -12.5 for 1B), and essentially add 0.5 a win. It won't be quite as drastic, as Mauer and Abreu will split time there as well, in an effort to keep said players healthy and rested. We'll say 0.7 WAR

 

NET EFFECT - 85.2 WINS

 

C - Mauer/Soto

1B - Abreu

2B - Dozier

SS - Anderson

3B - Frazier

LF - Cabrera

CF - Kiermaier

RF - Kepler

DH - Carter

 

SP - Quintana, Rodon, Santana, Holland, Gonzalez

RP - Robertson, Jones, Perkins, Capps, Jennings, Petricka, Putnam

 

C - Soto/Narvaez

1B - Soto/Mauer/Abreu/Lawrie

2B - Lawrie/Sanchez

3B - Lawrie/Sanchez

SS - Sanchez/Lawrie

LF - Tilson/Sanchez

CF - Tilson

RF - Tilson/Lawrie

 

-------------------------------

 

Forgetting slight adjustments and all that jazz, that team would currently project at around 84 wins. There are currently only 7 teams in the majors projected to win more than 84 games, though 11 teams are projected to win more than 83 games. This puts the Sox right in the thick of things, so to speak. Figure 0.5 WAR out of a hard throwing Kopech out of the bullpen come July 1st, and they could snag a Wild Card spot.

 

 

 

You may have to move Lawrie for a better fit, but that will be a negligible difference and it works as of now. Tilson seems to be a perfect 4th outfielder for this club. It may not be deep, but I think the talent is there, plus Kopech hasn't even been moved yet, the guy I think the Sox coveted the most.

 

 

 

Anyways, tear me apart, come up with your own. Let's forget about trading Quintana and let's focus on winning a World Series in 2017, and then being f***ing awful for 5 years.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

What. Did. I. Just. Read.

[LittleHurt05]

Slip the Indians' best players PEDs right before their scheduled drug tests. Then you got a chance...

[Panerista]

That plan sets our franchise back another half decade. I get what you're doing, but that's not happening.

[tray]

 

2016 -

The LaRoach fiasco soured Sale and Eaton from day one and impacted team chemistry.

Mat Latos had a few early wins and then fell apart. Danks lost the Home Opener and never won another game.

Matt Albers fell apart after the quick start to the season. Robertson blew some big leads late in games we should have won. Ventura left him out there to get beaten up, which impacted the morale of the players and the fans.

Several players did not work out - Jimmy Rollins at SS, Alex Avila and Navarro catching and Avi Garcia.

Shields was a late addition who proved to be a disaster.

 

2017-

Several lessons have been learned and the mistakes Ventura made will not be made by Renteria. For one example, Renteria handles pitchers more like Tito Francona than Ventura did. I have watched Renteria manage and is I recall he makes changes as soon as he senses trouble rather than waiting for a disastrous inning to happen.

 

While Sale is gone, so are Latos and Danks. There are some pitching reinforcements that may come through. Moncada could inject energy to the team when he is brought up in May. Other trades might happen.

I feel better slightly about the 2017 season than I did before last season. Let's wait to see what they have and how they play in ST before writing them off completely.

 

 

[Panerista]

2016 -

The LaRoach fiasco soured Sale and Eaton from day one and impacted team chemistry.

Mat Latos had a few early wins and then fell apart. Danks lost the Home Opener and never won another game.

Matt Albers fell apart after the quick start to the season. Robertson blew some big leads late in games we should have won. Ventura left him out there to get beaten up, which impacted the morale of the players and the fans.

Several players did not work out - Jimmy Rollins at SS, Alex Avila and Navarro catching and Avi Garcia.

Shields was a late addition who proved to be a disaster.

 

2017-

Several lessons have been learned and the mistakes Ventura made will not be made by Renteria. For one example, Renteria handles pitchers more like Tito Francona than Ventura did. I have watched Renteria manage and is I recall he makes changes as soon as he senses trouble rather than waiting for a disastrous inning to happen.

 

While Sale is gone, so are Latos and Danks. There are some pitching reinforcements that may come through. Moncada could inject energy to the team when he is brought up in May. Other trades might happen.

I feel better slightly about the 2017 season than I did before last season. Let's wait to see what they have and how they play in ST before writing them off completely.

If it gets to this, the rebuild has probably failed and we're right back where we started except without Chris Sale.

 

I'm confident this won't happen and more pieces will be moved.

[Kyyle23]

That plan sets our franchise back another half decade. I get what you're doing, but that's not happening.

 

I dont think you need to tell him that it is not happening. Pretty sure he is aware

[RyanSox]

y tho?

 

[Kyyle23]

y tho?

 

 

 

As the subtitle states.....

 

an exercise in time-killing

[Steve9347]

The Sox are rebuilding. They traded their two best assets away and sold off somewhere around 8-10 wins, which takes an 81 win underachieving team to a 75 win perfectly achieving team.

 

There are a few of you who know though. I won't name names (because I f***ing can't name names anymore, s***, there are too many of you who are new) who just so happened to catch on to the fact that the Sox traded [GASP] clubhouse cancers. Maybe the Sox really do believe they have a chance at competing next year. KW is still Senior VP and still Rick Hahn's boss - they didn't acquire these guys to compete 3 years down the road. They are winning it all this year, buddy.

 

The first part of this exercise is that you can only trade with teams projected for 78 wins or fewer according to the FanGraphs projected standings for 2017 (***excluding the Rockies, including the Rays***, whose projections do not appear to reflect the apparent intentions of the current clubs, given the Rays selling Smyly and the Rockies buying Holland and Desmond).

 

The second part is that these have to be logical offers, and any suggestion you make must be justifiable. I don't care about names unless they are big prospects, because the Sox have lottery tickets within the system that can complete a lot of deals. They also have lottery tickets that can buy salary.

 

The third part is that you can only add one bad contract. As an example, the guy I'm going to use in mine is Joe Mauer, because he's like a 1 WAR player as a 1B, but you move him back to catcher, even 1/3 of the time, and that value increases by probably about 1 full win. A 2 WAR Joe Mauer at $23 million is now slightly justifiable.

 

The fourth part is that you cannot sign a free agent for more than 1 year guaranteed. No player or club options. Vesting options work. The Sox are selling everything for this season, because they know they got it, ala the '97 or '03 Marlins. This will be the year. The product will almost literally be a tire fire beyond 2017. It gets ugly.

 

Finally, we will look past luxury tax penalties so long as you are not bringing in every single player who makes $15 million a year. Assume there is no budget, so long as there is no long-term ramification.

 

(NOTE: Author may or may not be slightly intoxicated)

 

With that said, I'll give it a shot:

 

-Sox trade Yoan Moncada, Reynaldo Lopez, Avisail Garcia, and lottery ticket to Minnesota for Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Ervin Santana, Joe Mauer, and Glen Perkins.

--soooooo much salary (almost $50 million), but, based on Steamer projections, the Sox gain 8.4 WAR, and that could easily be better (or much, much worse). The Sox fill their hole at 2B, RF, and C, even if C is only 60 games of the year. No one on this list is signed beyond 2018, so a small jumpstart to the rebuild is possible. The Twins take this because they are way further away than they realized and get the unquestioned #1 prospect in the game, plus a phenomenal arm, a highly talented player, and a linebacker playing baseball, plus they rid themselves of soooooo much salary.

 

[+1 WAR added to Mauer based on play at C]

 

NET EFFECT: 79.4 WINS

 

-Sox trade Adam Engel and Dane Dunning to San Diego for Carter Capps

--the Sox trade some high upside players for a high leverage reliever. Sox are overpaying to end games sooner and build the bullpen with a highly talented player likely to make his way towards the Bourjos line and a recent pick.

 

NET EFFECT: 80.1 WINS

 

-Sox trade Lucas Giolito, Alex Hansen, and lottery pick for Kevin Kiermaier

--the Sox trade arguably the #1 pitching prospect in the game, plus a super high upside arm and another "player" for an established dominant defensive player who also happens to provide some value on offense.

 

NET EFFECT: 84.5 WINS

 

-Sox sign Chris Carter, 1 year, $8 million

--a homecoming, Carter is projected at 0.4 WAR as a 1B, but he will hardly see the field, which will allow us to take his projected -11 runs defensively into effect according to positional adjustment (DH is -17.5 compared to -12.5 for 1B), and essentially add 0.5 a win. It won't be quite as drastic, as Mauer and Abreu will split time there as well, in an effort to keep said players healthy and rested. We'll say 0.7 WAR

 

NET EFFECT - 85.2 WINS

 

C - Mauer/Soto

1B - Abreu

2B - Dozier

SS - Anderson

3B - Frazier

LF - Cabrera

CF - Kiermaier

RF - Kepler

DH - Carter

 

SP - Quintana, Rodon, Santana, Holland, Gonzalez

RP - Robertson, Jones, Perkins, Capps, Jennings, Petricka, Putnam

 

C - Soto/Narvaez

1B - Soto/Mauer/Abreu/Lawrie

2B - Lawrie/Sanchez

3B - Lawrie/Sanchez

SS - Sanchez/Lawrie

LF - Tilson/Sanchez

CF - Tilson

RF - Tilson/Lawrie

 

-------------------------------

 

Forgetting slight adjustments and all that jazz, that team would currently project at around 84 wins. There are currently only 7 teams in the majors projected to win more than 84 games, though 11 teams are projected to win more than 83 games. This puts the Sox right in the thick of things, so to speak. Figure 0.5 WAR out of a hard throwing Kopech out of the bullpen come July 1st, and they could snag a Wild Card spot.

 

 

 

You may have to move Lawrie for a better fit, but that will be a negligible difference and it works as of now. Tilson seems to be a perfect 4th outfielder for this club. It may not be deep, but I think the talent is there, plus Kopech hasn't even been moved yet, the guy I think the Sox coveted the most.

 

 

 

Anyways, tear me apart, come up with your own. Let's forget about trading Quintana and let's focus on winning a World Series in 2017, and then being f***ing awful for 5 years.

If you need help on finding ways to quit drinking, I'm just a PM away.

[steveno89]

That plan sets our franchise back another half decade. I get what you're doing, but that's not happening.

 

Even talking fantasy those years would big time set our future back. Goes without saying the six aren't dealing moncada or to prospects anytime soon

[witesoxfan]

Even talking fantasy those years would big time set our future back. Goes without saying the six aren't dealing moncada or to prospects anytime soon

 

and let's focus on winning a World Series in 2017, and then being f***ing awful for 5 years.

 

I'm aware. The idea is that they are winning the World Series this year.

[ChiSox59]

You lost me early on, but if the Sox wanted to compete, they would have signed more stopgaps than Derek Holland. I actually liked the idea as I'd much rather cobble together a team that has a chance to compete than watch a team win less than 60 games, but it is pretty crystal clear that's not what is happening.

 

The Sox are going to suck.

[southsider2k5]

If you need help on finding ways to quit drinking, I'm just a PM away.

 

I was just going to call him an Uber, because he is in no condition to be driving.

[Soxbadger]

Unless it's twitter rumors no one wants to talk hypothetical ideas.

 

Haters gonna hate.

[footlongcomiskeydog]

The OP must have been hitting the Jack or Tito hard. That was one hell of a crazy post.

 

I'm not sold that the Sox front office is completely on board with tearing this thing down to the studs. The "bad apples" are gone and that is it so far. KW and Jerry are still running the show and rebuild is not in their vocabulary. They are a lot of desperate mediocre veterans still looking for a contract and time is running out. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the following signings are announced at SoxFest and/or sometime in early February.

 

Kurt Suzuki - 1 year contract-5.5 million ( Will platoon with either Soto/Navarez) Dude is a sox killer and rakes at Sox Park. Has bad defensive metrics but the Sox front office doesn't seem to care much about that if last years catcher signings were any indication.

 

Ryan Howard- 1 year -6 million base with incentives that could push it over 10 million. (will primarily DH and Spell Abreu at first) Total Kenny signing here. He tried to catch lighting in a bottle last year with Rollins why not try again with Howard?

 

Angel Pagan-1 year 8 million- (will start in Center) It doesn't sound like Tilson is gonna be ready for opening day and may never be the same player after that gruesome hamstring injury. Pagan will give a veteran presence in the outfield. Plus, he has never played in the AL before. KW and company like those kind of FA signings.

 

Jason Hammel- 1 year-12 million- (Slots in as #3 starter behind Q and Rodon) Hammel is getting desperate for a contract and settles on a one year deal to build value. Sox need another righty in starting rotation.

 

Travis Wood- 1 year- 7 million (Slots in as a jack of all trades and an insurance policy for if/when Holland & Shields implode) Wood is getting desperate for a deal as well. Sox sign two ex Cubs pitchers hoping some of the good juju from last year rolls over.

 

 

2017 Opening Day Lineup

 

1) Anderson-SS

2) Pagan-CF

3) Abreu-1B

4) Frazier-3B

5) Cabrera-LF

6) Howard-DH

7) Lawrie-2B

8) Garcia-RF

9) Suzuki-C

 

Starting Roation

 

1) Q

2) Rodon

3) Hammel

4) Gonzalez

5) Holland/Shields (one is guaranteed to implode ala Danks/Latos last year)

 

Bullpen

 

DRob

Jones

Putnam

Wood

Petrickia

Jennings

Ynoa

Covey

[Bob Sacamano]

The OP must have been hitting the Jack or Tito hard. That was one hell of a crazy post.

 

I'm not sold that the Sox front office is completely on board with tearing this thing down to the studs. The "bad apples" are gone and that is it so far. KW and Jerry are still running the show and rebuild is not in their vocabulary. They are a lot of desperate mediocre veterans still looking for a contract and time is running out. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the following signings are announced at SoxFest and/or sometime in early February.

 

Kurt Suzuki - 1 year contract-5.5 million ( Will platoon with either Soto/Navarez) Dude is a sox killer and rakes at Sox Park. Has bad defensive metrics but the Sox front office doesn't seem to care much about that if last years catcher signings were any indication.

 

Ryan Howard- 1 year -6 million base with incentives that could push it over 10 million. (will primarily DH and Spell Abreu at first) Total Kenny signing here. He tried to catch lighting in a bottle last year with Rollins why not try again with Howard?

 

Angel Pagan-1 year 8 million- (will start in Center) It doesn't sound like Tilson is gonna be ready for opening day and may never be the same player after that gruesome hamstring injury. Pagan will give a veteran presence in the outfield. Plus, he has never played in the AL before. KW and company like those kind of FA signings.

 

Jason Hammel- 1 year-12 million- (Slots in as #3 starter behind Q and Rodon) Hammel is getting desperate for a contract and settles on a one year deal to build value. Sox need another righty in starting rotation.

 

Travis Wood- 1 year- 7 million (Slots in as a jack of all trades and an insurance policy for if/when Holland & Shields implode) Wood is getting desperate for a deal as well. Sox sign two ex Cubs pitchers hoping some of the good juju from last year rolls over.

 

 

2017 Opening Day Lineup

 

1) Anderson-SS

2) Pagan-CF

3) Abreu-1B

4) Frazier-3B

5) Cabrera-LF

6) Howard-DH

7) Lawrie-2B

8) Garcia-RF

9) Suzuki-C

 

Starting Roation

 

1) Q

2) Rodon

3) Hammel

4) Gonzalez

5) Holland/Shields (one is guaranteed to implode ala Danks/Latos last year)

Bullpen

DRob

Jones

Putnam

Wood

Petrickia

Jennings

Ynoa

Covey

 

I have a feeling Gonzalez will implode (or at the very least, not pitch anywhere as well as he did last year).

[southsider2k5]

I have a feeling Gonzalez will implode (or at the very least, not pitch anywhere as well as he did last year).

 

If there was a player on this roster I would have moved for a minimal price, it would have been him. He has no upside left to improve into, and a pretty good chance at flopping.

[ChiSox59]

If there was a player on this roster I would have moved for a minimal price, it would have been him. He has no upside left to improve into, and a pretty good chance at flopping.

 

Agreed - but someones gotta fill out the rotation. They want Giolito, Lopez and Fulmer in AAA until at least mid June.

[southsider2k5]

Agreed - but someones gotta fill out the rotation. They want Giolito, Lopez and Fulmer in AAA until at least mid June.

 

Also true. I mean they could have done a bit more dumpster diving and I wouldn't have been sad about it.

[Dick Allen]

The OP must have been hitting the Jack or Tito hard. That was one hell of a crazy post.

 

I'm not sold that the Sox front office is completely on board with tearing this thing down to the studs. The "bad apples" are gone and that is it so far. KW and Jerry are still running the show and rebuild is not in their vocabulary. They are a lot of desperate mediocre veterans still looking for a contract and time is running out. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the following signings are announced at SoxFest and/or sometime in early February.

 

Kurt Suzuki - 1 year contract-5.5 million ( Will platoon with either Soto/Navarez) Dude is a sox killer and rakes at Sox Park. Has bad defensive metrics but the Sox front office doesn't seem to care much about that if last years catcher signings were any indication.

 

Ryan Howard- 1 year -6 million base with incentives that could push it over 10 million. (will primarily DH and Spell Abreu at first) Total Kenny signing here. He tried to catch lighting in a bottle last year with Rollins why not try again with Howard?

 

Angel Pagan-1 year 8 million- (will start in Center) It doesn't sound like Tilson is gonna be ready for opening day and may never be the same player after that gruesome hamstring injury. Pagan will give a veteran presence in the outfield. Plus, he has never played in the AL before. KW and company like those kind of FA signings.

 

Jason Hammel- 1 year-12 million- (Slots in as #3 starter behind Q and Rodon) Hammel is getting desperate for a contract and settles on a one year deal to build value. Sox need another righty in starting rotation.

 

Travis Wood- 1 year- 7 million (Slots in as a jack of all trades and an insurance policy for if/when Holland & Shields implode) Wood is getting desperate for a deal as well. Sox sign two ex Cubs pitchers hoping some of the good juju from last year rolls over.

 

 

2017 Opening Day Lineup

 

1) Anderson-SS

2) Pagan-CF

3) Abreu-1B

4) Frazier-3B

5) Cabrera-LF

6) Howard-DH

7) Lawrie-2B

8) Garcia-RF

9) Suzuki-C

 

Starting Roation

 

1) Q

2) Rodon

3) Hammel

4) Gonzalez

5) Holland/Shields (one is guaranteed to implode ala Danks/Latos last year)

 

Bullpen

 

DRob

Jones

Putnam

Wood

Petrickia

Jennings

Ynoa

Covey

 

Like James Shields and Derek Holland, Jason Hammel's style of pitching doesn't translate well at Guaranteed Rate Field.

[Bob Sacamano]

Also true. I mean they could have done a bit more dumpster diving and I wouldn't have been sad about it.

 

I think they likely will sign someone to a minor league deal as depth in case there is an injury early in the season and you don't want to call up Giolito or Lopez yet.

[Bob Sacamano]

Like James Shields and Derek Holland, Jason Hammel's style of pitching doesn't translate well at Guaranteed Rate Field.

 

That's fine...all the losses. Imagine if we were able to deal Q and sign Hammel. We would be replacing Sale and Quintana with Holland and Hammel and people would still think we are going to be good next year lol

Edited January 26, 2017 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

I think they likely will sign someone to a minor league deal as depth in case there is an injury early in the season and you don't want to call up Giolito or Lopez yet.

 

There are definitely a few names that could be of interest in the Sox eyes.

 

For example for a super cheap price, I wouldn't mind a guy like Jake Peavy around to show some of the kids how to compete with intensity.

 

Others of note, Matt Harrison, CJ Wilson, Doug Fister, Henderson Alvarez, Jered Weaver

 

Somebody to suck up some innings and be a warm body.

[coco1997]

Kurt Suzuki - 1 year contract-5.5 million ( Will platoon with either Soto/Navarez) Dude is a sox killer and rakes at Sox Park. Has bad defensive metrics but the Sox front office doesn't seem to care much about that if last years catcher signings were any indication.

 

Kurt Suzuki signed with the Braves a few days ago.