Ken Rosenthal: Trade Deadline Will be Insane

[Con te Giolito]

This is also worth mentioning. If he really were in a final burn decline, why would he improve that much over the last two months of the season? The answer in my eyes is that he got healthy back to himself.

Well it was only 17 innings and he still managed to walk 10 guys in those innings (not good) so lets not get too carried away about his Aug/Sept splits.

[southsider2k5]

Well it was only 17 innings and he still managed to walk 10 guys in those innings (not good) so lets not get too carried away about his Aug/Sept splits.

 

Sure, if you include the disaster. But after that, it got cleaned up.

[Con te Giolito]

Well, he was virtually the same to Cabrera, but regardless, you are comparing Eaton to Garcia/LIriano, not Cabrera. Our offense was really bad last year, including getting on base. We lost a .360 obp guy. We are replacing him with Avi garcia.

I'm just saying the idea that our offense has been completely neutered by firesale trades is wrong. The Sox infield of Frazier-Anderson-Lawrie/Saladino (inevitable injury)-Abreu is probably going to score a lot of runs this year. If Tilson has so much as a pulse at the plate he'll give Jewel-brand Eaton production with his bat. If Melky does what he did last year as a DH that wont be too bad.

 

Eaton is so ridiculously overrated by a couple nice throws from RF its sick. Good on Hahn getting the deal he got for him, still cant believe it.

 

I agree with whoever said in another thread that the Sox lost about 8 wins with the trades. I dont think any of those are coming from the offensive side though, more the obvious rotation downgrade from Sale to Holland and the looming disaster in RF.

 

 

[BlackSox13]

Yikes. All I will say.

Lol, ST can not get here soon enough!

 

I do agree with Rosenthal that the deadline could be insane. There should be rumors galore leading to the deadline. Should be alot of fun.

[southsider2k5]

I'm just saying the idea that our offense has been completely neutered by firesale trades is wrong. The Sox infield of Frazier-Anderson-Lawrie/Saladino (inevitable injury)-Abreu is probably going to score a lot of runs this year. If Tilson has so much as a pulse at the plate he'll give Jewel-brand Eaton production with his bat. If Melky does what he did last year as a DH that wont be too bad.

 

Eaton is so ridiculously overrated by a couple nice throws from RF its sick. Good on Hahn getting the deal he got for him, still cant believe it.

 

I agree with whoever said in another thread that the Sox lost about 8 wins with the trades. I dont think any of those are coming from the offensive side though, more the obvious rotation downgrade from Sale to Holland and the looming disaster in RF.

 

Read this sentence again. Nothing about Tilson shows that he will be anywhere close to Eaton.

[bmags]

I'm just saying the idea that our offense has been completely neutered by firesale trades is wrong. The Sox infield of Frazier-Anderson-Lawrie/Saladino (inevitable injury)-Abreu is probably going to score a lot of runs this year. If Tilson has so much as a pulse at the plate he'll give Jewel-brand Eaton production with his bat. If Melky does what he did last year as a DH that wont be too bad.

 

Eaton is so ridiculously overrated by a couple nice throws from RF its sick. Good on Hahn getting the deal he got for him, still cant believe it.

 

I agree with whoever said in another thread that the Sox lost about 8 wins with the trades. I dont think any of those are coming from the offensive side though, more the obvious rotation downgrade from Sale to Holland and the looming disaster in RF.

 

The white sox offense was 22nd (off memory, maybe 21st) last year in runs scored. They weren't good last year and they won't be good this year with a worse lineup. Maybe catcher is better offensively. Tilson also may have less speed this year which could effect what his BABIP can be. I hope he's better than Shuck, but we aren't talking about a significant driver in quality of offensive production there.

[Bob Sacamano]

Read this sentence again. Nothing about Tilson shows that he will be anywhere close to Eaton.

 

Yeah he has posted quite a few head-scratchers the past few days.

[Con te Giolito]

Sure, if you include the disaster. But after that, it got cleaned up.

Well I'm the kind of guy that includes the disasters. And even if I wasn't I'd still be looking at the 5 walks in 7.2 IP in Sept. as an indication his control never really improved even in the absence of Navarro. But whatever I'm not going to get this far in depth over 8 inning sample sizes to make my broader point that Robertson is either about to completely fall apart or already has and we dont (well I do) know it yet.

[Con te Giolito]

Read this sentence again. Nothing about Tilson shows that he will be anywhere close to Eaton.

I think Tilson can provide .300-.320 obp with a complete dearth of power and a couple legged out XBH. Maybe he cant I dont know, it has less to do with Tilson being good and more to do with Eaton being insanely overrated.

[southsider2k5]

The white sox offense was 22nd (off memory, maybe 21st) last year in runs scored. They weren't good last year and they won't be good this year with a worse lineup. Maybe catcher is better offensively. Tilson also may have less speed this year which could effect what his BABIP can be. I hope he's better than Shuck, but we aren't talking about a significant driver in quality of offensive production there.

 

Offensively Tilson is going to be much closer to JB Shuck than Adam Eaton. What I hope is that defensively he is closer to a real CF than Eaton or Shuck.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I'm just saying the idea that our offense has been completely neutered by firesale trades is wrong. The Sox infield of Frazier-Anderson-Lawrie/Saladino (inevitable injury)-Abreu is probably going to score a lot of runs this year. If Tilson has so much as a pulse at the plate he'll give Jewel-brand Eaton production with his bat. If Melky does what he did last year as a DH that wont be too bad.

 

Eaton is so ridiculously overrated by a couple nice throws from RF its sick. Good on Hahn getting the deal he got for him, still cant believe it.

 

I agree with whoever said in another thread that the Sox lost about 8 wins with the trades. I dont think any of those are coming from the offensive side though, more the obvious rotation downgrade from Sale to Holland and the looming disaster in RF.

 

 

They have a bottom 5 offense in baseball.

[Bob Sacamano]

Well I'm the kind of guy that includes the disasters. And even if I wasn't I'd still be looking at the 5 walks in 7.2 IP in Sept. as an indication his control never really improved even in the absence of Navarro. But whatever I'm not going to get this far in depth over 8 inning sample sizes to make my broader point that Robertson is either about to completely fall apart or already has and we dont (well I do) know it yet.

 

What do you expect to get for Robertson right now? It's entirely possible that no teams want him or are willing to give up any kind of piece even with the Sox eating some salary. Apparently holding onto a player to try to rebuild value is a tough concept to understand.

Edited January 26, 2017 by soxfan2014

[GGajewski18]

I'm just saying the idea that our offense has been completely neutered by firesale trades is wrong. The Sox infield of Frazier-Anderson-Lawrie/Saladino (inevitable injury)-Abreu is probably going to score a lot of runs this year. If Tilson has so much as a pulse at the plate he'll give Jewel-brand Eaton production with his bat. If Melky does what he did last year as a DH that wont be too bad.

 

Eaton is so ridiculously overrated by a couple nice throws from RF its sick. Good on Hahn getting the deal he got for him, still cant believe it.

 

I agree with whoever said in another thread that the Sox lost about 8 wins with the trades. I dont think any of those are coming from the offensive side though, more the obvious rotation downgrade from Sale to Holland and the looming disaster in RF.

 

Wow. *throws papers and walks away*

[southsider2k5]

I think Tilson can provide .300-.320 obp with a complete dearth of power and a couple legged out XBH. Maybe he cant I dont know, it has less to do with Tilson being good and more to do with Eaton being insanely overrated.

 

Eaton's OBP has been over .360 for each of his 3 full seasons in MLB. He has also put up a SLG of .414 over his career, while Tilson has only been able to manage a .392 in the minors. That is already somewhere between 50 and 75 OPS points we are talking about.

[bmags]

Offensively Tilson is going to be much closer to JB Shuck than Adam Eaton. What I hope is that defensively he is closer to a real CF than Eaton or Shuck.

 

I hope to hell that he can be 2015 jb shuck offensively and not 2016 shuck. No defense can save that kind of production.

[Con te Giolito]

Offensively Tilson is going to be much closer to JB Shuck than Adam Eaton. What I hope is that defensively he is closer to a real CF than Eaton or Shuck.

Well in 2015 Shuck had a .340 obp in limited PA's, so if Tilson can match that you'll barely notice Eaton is gone until you see Avi tripping over his shoelaces in RF. I dont think Tilson will, but I think he can BABIP and draw enough walks to keep himself above .300 obp. I think you guys overrated Eaton's contributions at the plate.

 

Speaking of Shuck I saw what I think was him at Midway a couple days ago. Departures lane but he's still got the Sox plates flying proud on his (IIRC) Jeep.

[southsider2k5]

They have a bottom 5 offense in baseball.

 

At best.

[Con te Giolito]

They have a bottom 5 offense in baseball.

They were 20th in RS, I doubt just losing Eaton moves them down 10 spots. Especially if the rebound from Abreu (seems to be board consensus) materializes. If you really think the Sox will be a bottom 5 offense you better be willing to donate Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie, Melky Cabrera or anything else not nailed down for whatever you can get because that kind of team prediction would require some absolutely abysmal individual performances.

[Panerista]

Wow. *throws papers and walks away*

CTG Alternative Facts: If you subtract from something, it grows.

[southsider2k5]

Well in 2015 Shuck had a .340 obp in limited PA's, so if Tilson can match that you'll barely notice Eaton is gone until you see Avi tripping over his shoelaces in RF. I dont think Tilson will, but I think he can BABIP and draw enough walks to keep himself above .300 obp. I think you guys overrated Eaton's contributions at the plate.

 

Speaking of Shuck I saw what I think was him at Midway a couple days ago. Departures lane but he's still got the Sox plates flying proud on his (IIRC) Jeep.

 

Adam Eaton hit 14 homers last season in about 700 PAs. Tilson has managed 19 HR in over 2000 MiLB ABs. Eaton also put up 29 doubles in that stretch. Tilson has put up 59 in over 2000 PA's. There is going to be a large loss in both ISO and OBP. Again, we are talking at least 50 to 75 OPS points, and that is if Tilson doesn't suffer any loss of speed from the Hammy tear last year.

 

Tilson is a 4th OF in a starters clothing.

[OmarComing25]

If you include baserunning value Eaton was 46th in offensive value in baseball in 2016, that's pretty good. No one is saying Eaton was an elite offensive force but he was a solid hitter who can get on base and a great baserunner and those guys aren't easy to find, as we all know from the last decade of offensive ineptitude. To say Tilson could come close to matching that is utter nonsense.

Edited January 26, 2017 by OmarComing25

[Dick Allen]

Adam Eaton hit 14 homers last season in about 700 PAs. Tilson has managed 19 HR in over 2000 MiLB ABs. Eaton also put up 29 doubles in that stretch. Tilson has put up 59 in over 2000 PA's. There is going to be a large loss in both ISO and OBP. Again, we are talking at least 50 to 75 OPS points, and that is if Tilson doesn't suffer any loss of speed from the Hammy tear last year.

 

Tilson is a 4th OF in a starters clothing.

No he's just as good as Adam Eaton, well almost as good. Just because he gets on base, runs the bases well, is a good fielder with a good arm, has a little pop with the bat, people think he's a good player. LMAO. His 6.0 WAR last year is easily replaced.

[Con te Giolito]

Adam Eaton hit 14 homers last season in about 700 PAs. Tilson has managed 19 HR in over 2000 MiLB ABs. Eaton also put up 29 doubles in that stretch. Tilson has put up 59 in over 2000 PA's. There is going to be a large loss in both ISO and OBP. Again, we are talking at least 50 to 75 OPS points, and that is if Tilson doesn't suffer any loss of speed from the Hammy tear last year.

 

Tilson is a 4th OF in a starters clothing.

I didn't say there wouldn't be a loss, I just said it wont be that massive because Eaton was never that great at the plate.

 

If the Sox are really going to fall from 20th to bottom 5 in run scored it will take more than just replacing Eaton with Tilson. Need a couple complete meltdowns from guys who contributed last year, these are predictions nobody seems willing to make though. "Hold them til deadline, they'll accrue more value" is incompatible with pessimistic team outlooks.

[Con te Giolito]

No one is saying Eaton was an elite offensive force

That is exactly what people are saying when they think the loss of Adam Eaton will cause them to tumble in RS standings in 2017.

[Y2Jimmy0]

They were 20th in RS, I doubt just losing Eaton moves them down 10 spots. Especially if the rebound from Abreu (seems to be board consensus) materializes. If you really think the Sox will be a bottom 5 offense you better be willing to donate Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie, Melky Cabrera or anything else not nailed down for whatever you can get because that kind of team prediction would require some absolutely abysmal individual performances.

 

 

I laid all this out for you in detail yesterday. They are going to be terrible. Rick Hahn knows this. Rick Renteria knows this. Come on, man. People are all entitled to their opinion, especially on a message board but this is getting out of hand.