Ken Rosenthal: Trade Deadline Will be Insane

[southsider2k5]

I didn't say there wouldn't be a loss, I just said it wont be that massive because Eaton was never that great at the plate.

 

If the Sox are really going to fall from 20th to bottom 5 in run scored it will take more than just replacing Eaton with Tilson. Need a couple complete meltdowns from guys who contributed last year, these are predictions nobody seems willing to make though. "Hold them til deadline, they'll accrue more value" is incompatible with pessimistic team outlooks.

 

You deserve a spot on a political campaign the way you are taking things out of context and spinning the into something else completely different that isn't being said. So much of this post is just flat out wrong, as are every other post where you try to apply a few posts into full encompassing expectations, and then on top of that assign them some sort of value to reality.

 

I am not sure why you keep lashing out at everyone who disagrees with you, and then posting lies to try to make it valid.

[Bob Sacamano]

I didn't say there wouldn't be a loss, I just said it wont be that massive because Eaton was never that great at the plate.

 

If the Sox are really going to fall from 20th to bottom 5 in run scored it will take more than just replacing Eaton with Tilson. Need a couple complete meltdowns from guys who contributed last year, these are predictions nobody seems willing to make though. "Hold them til deadline, they'll accrue more value" is incompatible with pessimistic team outlooks.

 

Half seasons from Frazier, Melky and whoever they deal should do the trick.

[Sleepy Harold]

You deserve a spot on a political campaign the way you are taking things out of context and spinning the into something else completely different that isn't being said. So much of this post is just flat out wrong, as are every other post where you try to apply a few posts into full encompassing expectations, and then on top of that assign them some sort of value to reality.

 

I am not sure why you keep lashing out at everyone who disagrees with you, and then posting lies to try to make it valid.

If it's true to politics I believe they are called "alternative facts".

[OmarComing25]

That is exactly what people are saying when they think the loss of Adam Eaton will cause them to tumble in RS standings in 2017.

Not really. People are saying that the gap in offensive ability between Eaton and Tilson is significant. You seem to think Tilson will be a league-average hitter, but it's likely that he'll be much worse.

Edited January 26, 2017 by OmarComing25

[Con te Giolito]

I laid all this out for you in detail yesterday. They are going to be terrible. Rick Hahn knows this. Rick Renteria knows this. Come on, man. People are all entitled to their opinion, especially on a message board but this is getting out of hand.

How are they going to be terrible if Robertson, Frazier and Abreu all rebound? Seriously that's like 4 wins if those guys "raise their value by the deadline", if Tilson can do anything positive in CF that probably makes up for losing Eaton by itself. Yea they'll get worse losing Sale no doubt but they wont completely fall to being one of the worst three teams in baseball. For them to win fewer than 70 games not only will Frazier, Abreu and Robertson not rebound, it'll probably means they got worse. Or worse yet Rodon and Anderson fall apart. Or nightmare scenario Q gets hurt. That's just as a team managing to """achieve""" a win total.

 

If you want to talk about the offense falling into the woeful Philles/Brewers/Padres nightmare tier, especially with the great Minnesota Twins rotation serving up meat for 19 games, we are talking a cataclysm on offense. Like an absolute bloodbath where nobody is hitting anything. If that happens then you can bet there wont be much value getting improved for the deadline.

 

Nobody seems willing to rectify this at all. Everyone just seems convinced that all the players they want traded will have MAGICAL years of resurgence and value raising, and that Rodon will have a massive season and that all their losses will become of the GRR VILLIANS like Avi and Tilson. Its all fantasy, its trying to convince yourself that what you want to happen for the Sox will happen.

[Bob Sacamano]

How are they going to be terrible if Robertson, Frazier and Abreu all rebound? Seriously that's like 4 wins if those guys "raise their value by the deadline", if Tilson can do anything positive in CF that probably makes up for losing Eaton by itself. Yea they'll get worse losing Sale no doubt but they wont completely fall to being one of the worst three teams in baseball. For them to win fewer than 70 games not only will Frazier, Abreu and Robertson not rebound, it'll probably means they got worse. Or worse yet Rodon and Anderson fall apart. Or nightmare scenario Q gets hurt. That's just as a team managing to """achieve""" a win total.

 

If you want to talk about the offense falling into the woeful Philles/Brewers/Padres nightmare tier, especially with the great Minnesota Twins rotation serving up meat for 19 games, we are talking a cataclysm on offense. Like an absolute bloodbath where nobody is hitting anything. If that happens then you can bet there wont be much value getting improved for the deadline.

 

Nobody seems willing to rectify this at all. Everyone just seems convinced that all the players they want traded will have MAGICAL years of resurgence and value raising, and that Rodon will have a massive season and that all their losses will become of the GRR VILLIANS like Avi and Tilson. Its all fantasy, its trying to convince yourself that what you want to happen for the Sox will happen.

 

It's not a slam dunk that everyone will rebound yet you keep working off the assumption they are. It's possible guys like Shields and Holland don't bounce back, that Gonzalez implodes. It's possible that Anderson takes a step back and whoever we plug in at DH, C, 2B with injuries, the 2 OF spots do terrible.

Edited January 26, 2017 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

How are they going to be terrible if Robertson, Frazier and Abreu all rebound? Seriously that's like 4 wins if those guys "raise their value by the deadline", if Tilson can do anything positive in CF that probably makes up for losing Eaton by itself. Yea they'll get worse losing Sale no doubt but they wont completely fall to being one of the worst three teams in baseball. For them to win fewer than 70 games not only will Frazier, Abreu and Robertson not rebound, it'll probably means they got worse. Or worse yet Rodon and Anderson fall apart. Or nightmare scenario Q gets hurt. That's just as a team managing to """achieve""" a win total.

 

If you want to talk about the offense falling into the woeful Philles/Brewers/Padres nightmare tier, especially with the great Minnesota Twins rotation serving up meat for 19 games, we are talking a cataclysm on offense. Like an absolute bloodbath where nobody is hitting anything. If that happens then you can bet there wont be much value getting improved for the deadline.

 

Nobody seems willing to rectify this at all. Everyone just seems convinced that all the players they want traded will have MAGICAL years of resurgence and value raising, and that Rodon will have a massive season and that all their losses will become of the GRR VILLIANS like Avi and Tilson. Its all fantasy, its trying to convince yourself that what you want to happen for the Sox will happen.

 

Again, literally NO ONE has said this. A lot of individuals have made picks of one or two specific players that they think will rebound. Literally no one has said they ALL will rebound. Stop saying this. This is a flat out lie.

[elrockinMT]

That is one massive assumption for a pitcher who is very bad.

 

 

Robertson is actually is a very good pitcher. Don't undervalue a player like him, or others we have. A rebuild, a re-tooling or whatever we are doing takes time and we don't need to make trades out of deperation

[OmarComing25]

How are they going to be terrible if Robertson, Frazier and Abreu all rebound? Seriously that's like 4 wins if those guys "raise their value by the deadline", if Tilson can do anything positive in CF that probably makes up for losing Eaton by itself. Yea they'll get worse losing Sale no doubt but they wont completely fall to being one of the worst three teams in baseball. For them to win fewer than 70 games not only will Frazier, Abreu and Robertson not rebound, it'll probably means they got worse. Or worse yet Rodon and Anderson fall apart. Or nightmare scenario Q gets hurt. That's just as a team managing to """achieve""" a win total.

 

If you want to talk about the offense falling into the woeful Philles/Brewers/Padres nightmare tier, especially with the great Minnesota Twins rotation serving up meat for 19 games, we are talking a cataclysm on offense. Like an absolute bloodbath where nobody is hitting anything. If that happens then you can bet there wont be much value getting improved for the deadline.

 

Nobody seems willing to rectify this at all. Everyone just seems convinced that all the players they want traded will have MAGICAL years of resurgence and value raising, and that Rodon will have a massive season and that all their losses will become of the GRR VILLIANS like Avi and Tilson. Its all fantasy, its trying to convince yourself that what you want to happen for the Sox will happen.

It's really hard to take you seriously when you continue to say things like this. C'mon man.

 

And you're way overestimating the amount that Frazier/Robertson/Abreu need to rebound to improve their value. You're the only one saying they need to have "magical" years to raise their value, when in reality they only need mild improvements. Even if all of them rebound the way we hope, it won't add more than a couple of wins, because we'll also be trading them at the deadline in this scenario and then replacing them with garbage for the rest of the season.

[steveno89]

How are they going to be terrible if Robertson, Frazier and Abreu all rebound? Seriously that's like 4 wins if those guys "raise their value by the deadline", if Tilson can do anything positive in CF that probably makes up for losing Eaton by itself. Yea they'll get worse losing Sale no doubt but they wont completely fall to being one of the worst three teams in baseball. For them to win fewer than 70 games not only will Frazier, Abreu and Robertson not rebound, it'll probably means they got worse. Or worse yet Rodon and Anderson fall apart. Or nightmare scenario Q gets hurt. That's just as a team managing to """achieve""" a win total.

 

If you want to talk about the offense falling into the woeful Philles/Brewers/Padres nightmare tier, especially with the great Minnesota Twins rotation serving up meat for 19 games, we are talking a cataclysm on offense. Like an absolute bloodbath where nobody is hitting anything. If that happens then you can bet there wont be much value getting improved for the deadline.

 

Nobody seems willing to rectify this at all. Everyone just seems convinced that all the players they want traded will have MAGICAL years of resurgence and value raising, and that Rodon will have a massive season and that all their losses will become of the GRR VILLIANS like Avi and Tilson. Its all fantasy, its trying to convince yourself that what you want to happen for the Sox will happen.

 

As other posters have said, nobody is talking magical or enormous seasons from Robertson, Frazier, Melky, etc.

 

Even modest improvement or solid performance would help their values at the deadline

 

The Sox are pretty clearly going to be willing sellers at the deadline barring a miracle performance in the first half, and it is not a given that you will have tons of other sellers willing to deal mlb pieces. Abreu could be a big bat at 1B or DH, especially if he is playing like he did in the second half of 2016

 

Modest improvement in batting average and OBP from Frazier, combined with the power could make him a valuable deadline piece. He brings a veteran presence and could play 3B, 1B or DH.

 

Melky could play LF or DH and provide .280 - .340 numbers with a little pop for a contender

 

Willing to rectify this how? Trade everyone for scraps right now and then do what? The Sox are fortunate you aren't making rash decisions for them

[southsider2k5]

That wasn't the point I was trying to make. For one thing, other than Shields and possibly Robertson (if he sucks this year) the Sox don't have any bad contracts.

 

We've seen teams like Milwaukee and Atlanta basically buy prospects. The idea is take on someone who sucks who has some money on the contract and receive a better prospect or greater package. Or alternatively, eat money on someone you trade. If there is a team that needs a veteran bat in LF who has no payroll room, let's use Pittsburgh as an example, the Sox eat some of the contract. Melky is owed ~7M from June on and the Sox eat 4 million of it to get a B prospect they like instead of a C prospect.

 

It's obviously a strategy that is easy for a fan to get behind, "Hey let's let ownership spend more money so we can get more young players" but innovative executives are employing these tactics. The Braves got Touki Toussaint out of this and the Brewers got Isan Diaz out of this. Every bit counts.

 

Ah. Now that I have no problem with. I would like to see the Sox involved in this. They really have no payroll needs until next decade, so why not.

[Bob Sacamano]

That wasn't the point I was trying to make. For one thing, other than Shields and possibly Robertson (if he sucks this year) the Sox don't have any bad contracts.

 

We've seen teams like Milwaukee and Atlanta basically buy prospects. The idea is take on someone who sucks who has some money on the contract and receive a better prospect or greater package. Or alternatively, eat money on someone you trade. If there is a team that needs a veteran bat in LF who has no payroll room, let's use Pittsburgh as an example, the Sox eat some of the contract. Melky is owed ~7M from June on and the Sox eat 4 million of it to get a B prospect they like instead of a C prospect.

 

It's obviously a strategy that is easy for a fan to get behind, "Hey let's let ownership spend more money so we can get more young players" but innovative executives are employing these tactics. The Braves got Touki Toussaint out of this and the Brewers got Isan Diaz out of this. Every bit counts.

 

While Jay Bruce is better than the type of guy who gets moved with a prospect to just go away, it makes sense. The Mets only picked up his option due to uncertainty with Cespedes in the OF. If Bruce is doing terrible a month into the season, I would hope Rick is free enough to offer a deal where the Sox acquire Bruce and an interesting at worst prospect and Bruce's entire contract for cash considerations type of move seeing as though his contract expires this year.

 

Heck, I'm pretty sure the Dodgers have even done similar to facilitate trades and then just dfa'd the player with the bad contract. My idea really only works if Bruce is doing like Dunn or LaRoche type bad though otherwise they could look to move him for something if he is at least decent.

Edited January 26, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Chicago White Sox]

I think Tilson can provide .300-.320 obp with a complete dearth of power and a couple legged out XBH. Maybe he cant I dont know, it has less to do with Tilson being good and more to do with Eaton being insanely overrated.

Good god man, get out of here with this garbage. Eaton has put .360 OBPs three straight years and has hit 14 HRs two straight years. Have you ever even looked at Adam's stats?? Tilson will never come close to providing those numbers.

[Dominikk85]

It doesn't really matter if Q. Is traded now or at the deadline, more important is get good value back. I think it is about a wash. At the deadline a need might appear if an ace of a contender get hurt and you might get a little extra. On the flipside other sellers might appear so I think all in all Qsorts value will be similar.

 

Overall obviously trading him now would be better because there always is a risk of injury or underperformance but if you don't get a good enough offer now you can likely get similar value at the deadline.it doesn't have to be that Uber deal, just a very good one is OK.

Edited January 26, 2017 by GermanSock

[bmags]

It's still crazy to me that they aren't just eating it with Bruce and benching him for Conforto but instead they are jerking Conforto around again. Would love if that were a possibility but I know that's just thinking too much about how Collins doesn't like him, not an organizational dislike.

[Harry Chappas]

That wasn't the point I was trying to make. For one thing, other than Shields and possibly Robertson (if he sucks this year) the Sox don't have any bad contracts.

 

We've seen teams like Milwaukee and Atlanta basically buy prospects. The idea is take on someone who sucks who has some money on the contract and receive a better prospect or greater package. Or alternatively, eat money on someone you trade. If there is a team that needs a veteran bat in LF who has no payroll room, let's use Pittsburgh as an example, the Sox eat some of the contract. Melky is owed ~7M from June on and the Sox eat 4 million of it to get a B prospect they like instead of a C prospect.

 

It's obviously a strategy that is easy for a fan to get behind, "Hey let's let ownership spend more money so we can get more young players" but innovative executives are employing these tactics. The Braves got Touki Toussaint out of this and the Brewers got Isan Diaz out of this. Every bit counts.

 

and the Padres did in the james shields trade

[Bob Sacamano]

It's still crazy to me that they aren't just eating it with Bruce and benching him for Conforto but instead they are jerking Conforto around again. Would love if that were a possibility but I know that's just thinking too much about how Collins doesn't like him, not an organizational dislike.

 

Jones for Conforto...get it done Rick!...or you know, whatever additional pieces on both sides makes it fair.

Edited January 26, 2017 by soxfan2014

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Jones for Conforto actually wouldn't be too far off. I've proposed that deal before and gotten mixed reactions. It's risky for both sides but I'd probably do it.

[steveno89]

Good god man, get out of here with this garbage. Eaton has put .360 OBPs three straight years and has hit 14 HRs two straight years. Have you ever even looked at Adam's stats?? Tilson will never come close to providing those numbers.

 

Saying that Tilsen is only a minor downgrade from Eaton is bogus, agreed

 

Eaton was outstanding in right field defensively, a plus runner on the bases, hit for solid average and drew walks, as well as developed into a guy who could hit 15 homers a year

 

Tilsen deserves a chance to prove himself, but he will never have over a .350 OBP or hit 15 home runs

 

Charlie Tilsen's ceiling is realistically a quality fourth outfielder and/or spot starter on a competitive team. He will be given an opportunity to show he can play this year, but I see him topping out as a reserve

 

 

[steveno89]

Jones for Conforto actually wouldn't be too far off. I've proposed that deal before and gotten mixed reactions. It's risky for both sides but I'd probably do it.

 

Jones for Conforto straight up?

 

Would be interesting, but I'd be curious to see what a quality season from Jones could get us at the deadline

[bmags]

I would be totally stoked about Jones for Conforto. Sox have had really good success on trades like that.

[Bob Sacamano]

I would be totally stoked about Jones for Conforto. Sox have had really good success on trades like that.

 

I feel like regardless of the situation of Cespedes, they probably should have declined his option. You already have 2 corner OF in Conforto and Granderson and if you failed to re-sign Cespedes, you could try to get a true CF or try to re-sign Bruce to a cheaper deal (I bet he'd still be on the market) or another option.

Edited January 26, 2017 by soxfan2014

[bmags]

I feel like regardless of the situation of Cespedes, they probably should have declined his option. You already have 2 corner OF in Conforto and Granderson and if you failed to re-sign Cespedes, you could try to get a true CF or try to re-sign Bruce to a cheaper deal (I bet he'd still be on the market) or another option.

 

Granderson Bruce Conforto Cespedes - 4 corner OF. Roster construction, but I guess anything works with that staff when healthy.

[steveno89]

I would be totally stoked about Jones for Conforto. Sox have had really good success on trades like that.

 

We could use a potential starting outfielder more than a setup man for sure

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Granderson Bruce Conforto Cespedes - 4 corner OF. Roster construction, but I guess anything works with that staff when healthy.

 

I was referring to if they didn't have all 4. They picked up his option because of the uncertainty of Cespedes. I'm saying they should have just declined Bruce's option and if it didn't work out with Cespedes, they could have aimed for a real CF since whoever is going to play there is out of position. And then if they failed to get a "true CF" (or stick Lagares out there), then attempt to re-sign Bruce or one of the other options (Moss, Saunders, trade for corner OF, etc.).

Edited January 26, 2017 by soxfan2014