Ken Rosenthal: Trade Deadline Will be Insane

[Bob Sacamano]

Sox dream scenario: Robertson bounces back in first half and they sell him off in July at a premium. Jones assumes the closer role and goes 14/16 in the second half with lots of strikeouts. Then they trade Jones and his 2004 contract for three good young prospects in the offseason.

 

Yeah I'd love to see all that happen.

[Con te Giolito]

He helps them win some games, but the offense and starting rotation being worse will be reasons why he won't pitch ahead often and get saves. Comparing a 2016 Indians to a 2017 White Sox team is a joke.

Why will the offense be worse? Eaton? You know Eaton wasn't even the best hitting outfielder the Sox had last year, right?

[southsider2k5]

I think he could be given away right now thus avoiding his 2018 salary. That's the problem, I dont want to pay him to stink up that team with his losing.

 

The Sox aren't in a position where they need to care about salaries.

[Bob Sacamano]

Why will the offense be worse? Eaton? You know Eaton wasn't even the best hitting outfielder the Sox had last year, right?

 

You realize whoever they replace him with makes the lineup overall worse correct? Along with the defense in RF?

 

They aren't going to be better than 2016 after dealing Sale and Eaton and likely 2-3 guys by July.

Edited January 26, 2017 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

How to Talk Baseball in 2017:

1) Pull up Fangraphs leaderboards

2) Regurgitate

 

Allen definitely isn't an elite closer, but he's also definitely better than Robertson and no WAR figure calibrated to evaluate starting pitchers will convince me otherwise.

 

Fangraphs>Feelings

[southsider2k5]

Looking at the game log from last season, he had 4 games where he gave up more than one run. I see a command trend to this. Before the first game, he hadn't pitched in 5 days. The second time, a week. The third time, 12 days.

 

The fourth and final bad game came after he had pitched the day before though so that's an outlier I suppose.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...p&year=2016

 

Edit: if he doesn't pitch that one game against KC when it was a blowout, who knows what happens. Also, 16 of his 24 earned runs on the season came in 4 those outings.

I want to say that one of those stretches he was coming off of a sore knee...

[Knackattack]

After seeing the slew of prospects traded at the 2016 deadline for relief pitching, wanting to sell low on Robertson (in a non contending year) is a little silly, especially if the reasoning is based upon his salary. We aren't signing any free agents and none of us are paying him... let the guy pitch and see if he can still be a solid closer.

[southsider2k5]

He caves under pressure and doesn't have the right makeup to be a closer. When he unravels he completely unravels and now that he's going to walk everyone in sight that means more innings will start off poorly for him which will lead to him becoming unglued more often. When he's on he's on, but the problem with those guys is consistency. Once his confidence in his stuff is even questioned he goes completely in the tank and he hasn't been elite in 5 years so its not like he's going to get it back.

What he did in Kansas City was the last nail in the coffin last season. I've honestly never seen anything like it and it soured me on him permanently.

 

 

If you only look at the AB's where Jose Abreu got a hit he bat a perfect .1000 on the year! Incredible!

 

Robertson is a case where I am 100% comfortable waiting until June to say I told you so. I hope to god its on a different team, even if they want to compete in 2017 (stupid, but whatever) they are better off shipping him out so hopefully that's what happens. I wonder what Rizzo would've added to the Eaton deal if the Sox would've included Robertson and not stuck to the silly "only sell one a piece at a time" mentality that really doesn't make too much sense.

 

At this point you could literally just debate yourself.

[southsider2k5]

I agree with raBBit. I'd much rather trade Jones for a haul now and let Robertson rebuild his value than the other way around.

 

In a rebuild it is all about maximizing your assets. Dumping everyone on their low points is a waste of potential assets.

[southsider2k5]

This is true but I do have some doubts that ownership allows the front office to operate with that luxury in mind.

 

I think if that were the case here we would have seen more aggressive dumping of salaries for nothing.

[Dick Allen]

Robertson had a hip issue and a knee issue last year. Let's all hope at least one of those was the reason for the drop off in command. If he gets that back, he will be fine. He's unhittable at times. The only pitcher in MLB history to average more than 10k/9 innings each of his first 8 years.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

In a rebuild it is all about maximizing your assets. Dumping everyone on their low points is a waste of potential assets.

That's exactly what I said. Let Robertson rebuild his value so he can be maximized at the deadline.

 

Jones' value certainly isn't low right now and I worry that ineffectiveness/injury next season could hurt his market. I'd trade him now if at all possible, though the deadline seems more realistic.

[Con te Giolito]

In a rebuild it is all about maximizing your assets. Dumping everyone on their low points is a waste of potential assets.

How do you know this is Robertson's low point?

[southsider2k5]

How do you know this is Robertson's low point?

 

It is just as easy to say how do you know it isn't. I have his career numbers on my side.

[Dick Allen]

How do you know this is Robertson's low point?

What are the offers? That he's still here speaks volumes.

 

It wouldn't take much for the Sox to punt on the money they owe him for 2 years of rebuilding.

 

 

[Con te Giolito]

It is just as easy to say how do you know it isn't.

Oh that's pretty easy. He's been getting worse every year the last three years and last year he ran hot/cold all season falling apart at the most inopportune times. And his stuff doesn't look half as good evidenced by his exploding walk rates and near doubling of the line drive rate off his fastball.

 

You can tell me all you want about his terrific 2011 season, but I dont think it has much bearing on what he'll do in the midst of a clear decline at age 32 with mounting injuries exacerbating his problems.

[footlongcomiskeydog]

That's exactly what I said. Let Robertson rebuild his value so he can be maximized at the deadline.

 

Jones' value certainly isn't low right now and I worry that ineffectiveness/injury next season could hurt his market. I'd trade him now if at all possible, though the deadline seems more realistic.

 

 

Holding onto Robertson is a logical move. Holding onto Jones is playing with fire in my opinion. Jones needs to be traded this off-season. The Mets need relief pitching and have a pretty decent farm. Get something done, Mr. Hahn.

 

 

[ptatc]

Robertson is honestly one of the more interesting players we have.

 

My gut feel would be to say that Robertson fatigues easily, when you watch him start off dominantly in April then wear down.

 

But Dick Allen posted that his worst games were all on 3-4 days rest.

Not uncommon for pitchers used to pitching frequently especially those that are "feel" pitchers not velocity pitchers.

[OmarComing25]

How do you know this is Robertson's low point?

But you've already said that we couldn't get anything more than a salary dump for Robertson right now. So worst case scenario is we have to eat the money if he ends up being really bad, which really isn't that big of a deal. If all we're risking is the money, then it's a risk worth taking.

[steveno89]

If you only look at the AB's where Jose Abreu got a hit he bat a perfect .1000 on the year! Incredible!

 

Robertson is a case where I am 100% comfortable waiting until June to say I told you so. I hope to god its on a different team, even if they want to compete in 2017 (stupid, but whatever) they are better off shipping him out so hopefully that's what happens. I wonder what Rizzo would've added to the Eaton deal if the Sox would've included Robertson and not stuck to the silly "only sell one a piece at a time" mentality that really doesn't make too much sense.

 

Pretty sure on behalf of all of SoxTalk, we are happy you are not the White Sox GM

 

Hanging onto Robertson and not tossing him into the Eaton deal has been deemed a really good move because he can have nice deadline value on his own

[steveno89]

Oh that's pretty easy. He's been getting worse every year the last three years and last year he ran hot/cold all season falling apart at the most inopportune times. And his stuff doesn't look half as good evidenced by his exploding walk rates and near doubling of the line drive rate off his fastball.

 

You can tell me all you want about his terrific 2011 season, but I dont think it has much bearing on what he'll do in the midst of a clear decline at age 32 with mounting injuries exacerbating his problems.

 

How do you explain Robertson's strong finish to the season after August 12th? He only gave up 2 runs over his final 16 innings

 

16 ip , 11 hits, 7 walks, 22 k's, only 2 ER to finish the season

 

That is rock solid production

[southsider2k5]

Oh that's pretty easy. He's been getting worse every year the last three years and last year he ran hot/cold all season falling apart at the most inopportune times. And his stuff doesn't look half as good evidenced by his exploding walk rates and near doubling of the line drive rate off his fastball.

 

You can tell me all you want about his terrific 2011 season, but I dont think it has much bearing on what he'll do in the midst of a clear decline at age 32 with mounting injuries exacerbating his problems.

 

I know you don't like numbers, but they don't really support what you are selling. He had a great 2015 statisically, that included his career best k/BB ratio, a career low BB/9, and his second lowest FIP. Really the only number that really jumped out in 2016 is his walk total. Nothing else was that far out of line when you give some slack for smaller sample sizes for relievers.

[southsider2k5]

How do you explain Robertson's strong finish to the season after August 12th? He only gave up 2 runs over his final 16 innings

 

16 ip , 11 hits, 7 walks, 22 k's, only 2 ER to finish the season

 

That is rock solid production

 

This is also worth mentioning. If he really were in a final burn decline, why would he improve that much over the last two months of the season? The answer in my eyes is that he got healthy back to himself.

[bmags]

Why will the offense be worse? Eaton? You know Eaton wasn't even the best hitting outfielder the Sox had last year, right?

 

Well, he was virtually the same to Cabrera, but regardless, you are comparing Eaton to Garcia/LIriano, not Cabrera. Our offense was really bad last year, including getting on base. We lost a .360 obp guy. We are replacing him with Avi garcia.

[ChiSox59]

Yikes. All I will say.