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PECOTA predicts Sox finish 4th in AL Central


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QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 8, 2017 -> 12:08 PM)
In one time around the league, he will learn and understand the tendencies of the entire pitching staff and get comfortable in all the different ballparks? most hitters will tell it takes the first year before getting comfortable with the change. This usually shows for most hitters.

I think that was truer in the past, but with interleague play there's less mystery in changing leagues. He's talking about a fundamental change in his approach which may not even be warranted. Didn't he have the worst BABIP last year, suggesting he was horribly unlucky?

However he does it I hope he has a great year, because he seems to be a great guy. And of course a candidate to be flipped mid season.

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QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Feb 8, 2017 -> 06:32 PM)
In 1970 the Sox went 56-106, most losses ever in a season and they drew 495,000 fans for it. Had three managers that season.

 

Mark

 

I attended some of those games, a couple of them with less than 5K in attendance at that huge old Comiskey Park. They were pitiful. Chuck Tanner etal would soon be on their way.

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QUOTE (Al Lopez's Ghost @ Feb 8, 2017 -> 12:16 PM)
I think that was truer in the past, but with interleague play there's less mystery in changing leagues. He's talking about a fundamental change in his approach which may not even be warranted. Didn't he have the worst BABIP last year, suggesting he was horribly unlucky?

However he does it I hope he has a great year, because he seems to be a great guy. And of course a candidate to be flipped mid season.

Very true. but I still think there are just too many different pitchers and team with different approaches that it take the majority of the first year to adjust.

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QUOTE (miracleon35th @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 08:27 PM)
That wasn't my assertion. I said it will be better in some respects.

 

I think Moncada will be up before the AllStar break and possibly before that.

I also think that a catching tandem of Soto and Narvaez will not be much worse than what we had last season.

 

I didn't mention Center Field but Austin Jackson was injured early so we might be better off with Charlie Tilson and Bourjous or whoever else makes the roster as a 4th outfielder.

 

The other thing to look at it the competition in the Central. Cleveland is still heavily favored but KC might not be as good (with the notable loss a lock-down Closer) and Minnesota is not looking very strong. Detroit looks like they don't know which way they are going and may start trading off some of their star players.

 

It's all just too early to predict right now, only to guess. So Shields fails. I doubt the Sox keep throwing him out there. They will make a move for another starter or bring someone up for his spot. Renteria is a better Manager than Ventura and that will make a huge difference. Many of these guys were asleep last season.

 

This is why we are done trading. Add another arm, get Moncada to go north from ST and we can compete for a wildcard. Hurry and get a bet down because Vegas odds will soon reflect our optimism.

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I expect Frazier and Abreu to have a bit of a bounceback to get closer to their career averages, Cabrera will be solid as well. Garcia will at least duplicate if not surpass his production from last year. Second base should be at least as good if not better. RF and C will be worse. The rotation will be worse, but not as significant of a drop off as Rodon should improve and Shields has to be at least a little better. This team could realistically duplicate last years win total if the players play to their career averages. The problem last year is that so many played below that level for the last half of the season that it is tough to predict them to rebound.

 

Without moving Abreu, Q, and Frazier, I don't see this team being bad enough to contend for a top draft pick. Even if they are moved, there are so many bad teams that it the Sox could finish with the same record with a much worse team.

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QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Feb 8, 2017 -> 12:32 PM)
In 1970 the Sox went 56-106, most losses ever in a season and they drew 495,000 fans for it. Had three managers that season.

 

Mark

 

This is why I think they will never COMPLETELY tear down again. Jerry would never sign off on a full season of no one paying for tickets to see the team play. Getting the #1 pick in the draft next year is not as important to them as it is to still have fan turnout. If they have to punt on Seth Beer so be it, but they will stagger the process to make sure there's always a few reasons to buy a ticket. Do we really think the franchise can withstand a 60 win season and what that would mean financially? They have a hard enough time drawing people to see a 75 win team.

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QUOTE (FT35 @ Feb 10, 2017 -> 12:31 PM)
This is why I think they will never COMPLETELY tear down again. Jerry would never sign off on a full season of no one paying for tickets to see the team play. Getting the #1 pick in the draft next year is not as important to them as it is to still have fan turnout. If they have to punt on Seth Beer so be it, but they will stagger the process to make sure there's always a few reasons to buy a ticket. Do we really think the franchise can withstand a 60 win season and what that would mean financially? They have a hard enough time drawing people to see a 75 win team.

 

Yes I think they can withstand that. All MLB teams make a ton from TV revenues. They will still profit. There's a reason why the Marlins are selling for 1.6 billion dollars now.

 

That said, that doesn't mean they won't want to make more money right now. I just hope they aren't shortsighted about this. If you get a Seth Beer or some other potential superstar here, the number of tickets he will help sell will eventually dwarf what you lose in 2017 and 2018.

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