Sox taking it slow with Rodon during ST

[Thad Bosley]

2.0 fWAR in 2015 to 2.7 fWAR in 2016 isn't really a quantum leap.

 

And he's hurt. Again.

 

Set aside his draft position, & consider what he is, not what we hope him to be. He was, by one metric, equal to Miguel Gonzalez last year, even with him padding his stats in garbage time late last year.

 

And his agent is dying for him to sign elsewhere.

 

Why is he a core player? He may not be good, & even if he will be, he probably won't be a part of the next good Sox team.

That depends. Possible new owner at that time = Possible new attitude with dealing with the agent who routinely represents the premium talent around baseball

[Two-Gun Pete]

While I don't agree with your premise, I'll play along.

 

What if he isn't considered part of the core then? What does that change over the next three years during his time here? If he's bad, as you say, the Sox aren't going to get a ton of value for him. If he continues to improve like many in the industry project, his value increases and the Sox have a number of different routes to take with him.

First of all, I've never said Rodon is "bad," but rather "mediocre."

 

Given his talent, Id consider that a bit of a disappointment. Given his slider that he has, one would anticipate him being better than he has been so far.

 

I suppose Id consider a "core player" to be essential to a team's fortunes. I don't see that at all in this player.

 

So, convince me. (And again, I never called him "bad.")

[Two-Gun Pete]

poor pitch framing costing Rodon 14 runs last season, which isn't baked into his fWAR, ERA, etc.

 

He's already established that his baseline is a mid-rotation SP,

 

projects as a ~3+WAR pitcher would earn close to 20M per year on the FA market. Guys like that don't exactly grow on trees.

Agreed that craptacular framing has hurt him to a degree.

 

But a 3 WAR player/mid-rotation guy doesn't = a "core player" to me. A team needs the 2WAR & 3 WAR guys in a roster. But those guys aren't essential to a team the way a stud like Sale or Quintana can be.

 

So far, I can agree that Rodon is just "a guy," but not much else than that. (When he's healthy, that is...)

[Two-Gun Pete]

That depends. Possible new owner at that time = Possible new attitude with dealing with the agent who routinely represents the premium talent around baseball

We all dream of this. But, I'm not counting on that happening.

 

Assuming that ownership & the Front Officr are as they are now, Rodon's as good as gone, IMO.

[maxjusttyped]

We all dream of this. But, I'm not counting on that happening.

 

Assuming that ownership & the Front Officr are as they are now, Rodon's as good as gone, IMO.

If the Sox didn't expect to be competitive in offering Boras clients their 2nd contract, I highly doubt they would have taken Rodon #3 or targeted Giolitto via trade. Just because they won't be able to sign Rodon to a ludicrously friendly team contract doesn't mean it's a given he'll never sign an extension or leave in free agency if/when he gets the opportunity to do so.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Rodon might be traded down the line, but for now, I think he's an essential part of the team. Keep in mind that he was rushed to the big leagues without a doubt. In hindsight, he probably should've spent all of 2015 in the minors. Just because he isn't improving at a Sale-like pace doesn't mean he won't be good. He also suffered from a terrible defense and pitch framing last year. It takes time for some of these guys to find their stride and hopefully 2017 is the year he takes a big step forward.

 

If we're having this discussion at this time next year, then I'll be slightly worried. Right now, I'm not.

[Two-Gun Pete]

You are arguing with yourself.

 

For some reason, you have created a scenario where the Sox have to identify Rodon as a "core player" this instance, or everything goes up in smoke.

Not at all.

 

I'm speaking more to the perception among this fanbase.

 

Look, he's on the banner here, and we routinely have posters regarding Rodon as untradeable, as he's part of this team's core.

 

Never did I call him "bad."

 

Never did I state that the Sox have to identify him as anything, despite your post to the contrary.

 

I'm asking posters to convince me that a mediocre SP, whose once again hurt, and repped by Boras is a "core player."

[Two-Gun Pete]

If the Sox didn't expect to be competitive in offering Boras clients their 2nd contract, I highly doubt they would have taken Rodon #3 or targeted Giolitto via trade. Just because they won't be able to sign Rodon to a ludicrously friendly team contract doesn't mean it's a given he'll never sign an extension or leave in free agency if/when he gets the opportunity to do so.

 

I put zero stock into a front office that stupidly traded for James Shields, & hired Robin Ventura, & tried to keep Cris Sale as a reliever.

 

This is a group not well-regarded for their foresight, so until they actually extend a Boras client, I have history on my side. And because of this long-standing history, we should reserve the right to doubt the guys that drafted Mitchell instead of Trout.

 

To assume otherwise with respect to this Front office and that agent would be foolish, IMO.

 

[Thad Bosley]

We all dream of this. But, I'm not counting on that happening.

 

Assuming that ownership & the Front Officr are as they are now, Rodon's as good as gone, IMO.

Do the math. When will Rodon be up for free agency?

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

Help me understand something:

 

Rodon's been pretty mediocre so far in his career; where some see promise in his Sept/Oct results last year, I see a "garbage time hero."

 

He's been a bit of a China Doll so far in his career, with injuries in every season sidelining him, and now whatever this latest issue may be...

 

He's represented by Greed Incarnate, who will never ever agree to a contract extension here.

 

 

Why is Rodon considered to be a part of this team's core again?

 

Thanks in advance.

 

Is Carlos Rodon an ace currently, no? Does he have the potential to be one, you bet. He just turned 24.

 

Player A

 

Age 21 Pitched in College

Age 22 109 2/3 IP between A+/AA/AAA, 14 IP in MLB as a reliever.

Age 23 34 1/3 IP in AAA, 128 1/3 IP in MLB as a starter. 4.42 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 1.3 fWAR, 7.15 K/9, 3.79 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9. 1.35 WHIP.

Age 24 208 2/3 IP in MLB as a starter. 2.72 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 4.2 fWAR, 8.11 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9. 1.19 WHIP.

 

Player B

 

Age 21 Pitched in College, then 24 2/3 IP between R/A+/AAA.

Age 22 10 IP in AAA. 139 1/3 IP in MLB as a starter. 3.75 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 2.0 fWAR, 8.98 K/9, 4.59 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9. 1.44 WHIP.

Age 23 165 IP in MLB as a starter. 4.04 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 2.7 fWAR, 9.16 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9. 1.39 WHIP.

Age 24 will start this season

 

Both of these pitchers were highly drafted LHP out of college with great sliders. One of them got a total of 144 IP in the minors before he was up for good, with 109 1/3 of those above A+. The other got 34 2/3 IP with 22 of those above A+. Yet the one who was rushed to the Majors quicker had as good, if not better MLB stats before they hit their age 24 season.

 

Player A is David Price.

Player B is Carlos Rodon.

 

Will we see Rodon make a huge jump this year? Not sure. If he keeps improving, he will be a solid 2 at worst with the potential to be an ace. As noted by others in the 2nd half in 2016, Rodon went 73 IP, 3.45 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 9.49 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9. If he can pitch near 200 innings, and maintain what he did in the 2nd half last year he will be around a 4+ fWAR pitcher at age 24, with 4 years of team control remaining. He would be insanely valuable.

 

If he has an awesome season this or next, and the Sox don't see him as part of the rebuild, then he is another piece to flip for more prospects. His 1st season in the majors he was 78th among pitchers in fWAR, last year, at the age of 23, he was 56th. David Price was 132nd in fWAR among pitchers in his age 23 season, his 1st in the majors.

 

I just don't get some of the disdain for Rodon. He was rushed to the majors very quickly, and has shown improvement along the way.

[southsider2k5]

You are arguing with yourself.

 

Over the next three years, if Rodon puts up these same numbers, no one will consider him a core piece to this franchise.

 

As Rodon enters age 24 and his 3rd full season, progression is expected.

 

For some reason, you have created a scenario where the Sox have to identify Rodon as a "core player" this instance, or everything goes up in smoke. Chris Sale and Adam Eaton were core pieces for this team the last two years. They aren't anymore. Things change.

 

Even I recognize that you are going to have to give these kids time. Let me put it this way. Giolitto was drafted two years before Rodon was. Is anyone ready to declare him not important? Didn't think so.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Is Carlos Rodon an ace currently, no? Does he have the potential to be one, you bet.

 

Will we see Rodon make a huge jump this year? Not sure. If he keeps improving, he will be a solid 2 at worst with the potential to be an ace. As noted by others in the 2nd half in 2016, Rodon went 73 IP, 3.45 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 9.49 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9. If he can pitch near 200 innings, and maintain what he did in the 2nd half last year he will be around a 4+ fWAR pitcher at age 24, with 4 years of team control remaining. He would be insanely valuable.

 

If he has an awesome season this or next, and the Sox don't see him as part of the rebuild, then he is another piece to flip for more prospects.

 

I just don't get some of the disdain for Rodon. He was rushed to the majors very quickly, and has shown improvement along the way.

Here's the rub:

 

Was it actual "improvement" in the 2nd half of last season, or was it stat padding in garbage time last season? We will see. Any Sox fan whose been around long enough has seen the fools hold of previous garbage time heroes of seasons past; accordingly, I'm suspicious of a player that was "meh" for most of last season, got injured, then got fat in garbage time.

 

Like David Price, if he does end up being good, he won't re-sign with the team that drafted him.

 

And like David Price, he's injured. Again. This can't be understated.

 

If, at the tender age of 24, he can't even get through spring training, how will he ever provide 200IP, like an actual core member of a starting rotation?

Edited March 4, 2017 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

Even I recognize that you are going to have to give these kids time. Let me put it this way. Giolitto was drafted two years before Rodon was. Is anyone ready to declare him not important? Didn't think so.

But there's a difference in how we as Sox fans see the two SPs:

 

The oft-injured, 2-ish fWAR, Boras client is on the banner here, and many here regard him as untradeable.

 

The shiny-new prospect is viewed as part of the future of the rotation.

 

I hope that both are the future, but (at present) neither are irreplaceable.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Not at all.

 

I'm speaking more to the perception among this fanbase.

 

Look, he's on the banner here, and we routinely have posters regarding Rodon as untradeable, as he's part of this team's core.

 

Never did I call him "bad."

 

Never did I state that the Sox have to identify him as anything, despite your post to the contrary.

 

I'm asking posters to convince me that a mediocre SP, whose once again hurt, and repped by Boras is a "core player."

So what's the big deal with Rodon being gone or with any player being gone for that matter. I don't understand your point. He was a high draft pick and he has shown steady progression. Rarely do pitchers just dominate from the beginning of their careers. A number 2 or 3 starter is always very valuable to the team unless his stats show ineptitude. He's the Sox Number 2 starting pitcher and will be No. 1 as soon as Quintana gets traded.

 

Also you called him oft injured. I don't view that as accurate. He did have a DL stint when he tripped on the dugout stairs but can you name others times ?

 

Maybe your definition and others of a core piece differ. It's usually a good young player who you keep through his peak value years . If he is going to be a very good pitcher it should happen during the time the Sox have him . He will be at or near 30 when he becomes a free agent.

 

What do you think a core piece is ? Is it someone putting up 4 and 5 WAR seasons for how long ? Free agency is a fact of life in baseball and not many pass it up and a player or his agent is not greedy for doing it. You seem to have a problem with the system. He will get payed what he is worth some day. That's not a terrible thing for the Sox since if he becomes very good I doubt it happens any time after he turns 30. Not many players put up very good seasons for very long.

 

If you get 6-12 WAR for a 3 year period that is a very valuable player and I consider it a core piece. It's nearly impossible for most but the richest teams to keep core pieces together for very long. The Yankees did it with a few guys Jeter, Posada, Pettitte and Rivera but also surrounded them with highly paid talent that came and went.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1. Also you called him oft injured. I don't view that as accurate. He did have a DL stint when he tripped on the dugout stairs but can you name others times ?

 

2. He will be at or near 30 when he becomes a free agent.

 

3. If you get 6-12 WAR for a 3 year period that is a very valuable player and I consider it a core piece.

1. He's injured right now. He can't even get through Spring Training, because of an arm issue, or a tummy ache, or God knows whatever is causing him to have to "go slow" at the tender age of 24.

 

2. He actually will be 28 when Boras has him sign elsewhere.

 

3. 6-12 WAR over 3 years is a wide spread. 2 WAR/year is "just a guy," or an average starting MLB player, or roughly what Rodon has been hereto fore. 4 WAR/year is very much a difference maker, a stud, or slightly less than early Chris Sale as a SP or slightly less than what Quintana is now.

 

Clumping the Gavin Floyds & Carlos Rodons together with the Chis Sales and Jose Quintanas over rates our now-injured SP, IMO. YMMV.

 

And, I have to re-state that I was very much a fan when he was drafted, & I very much want him (and ALL Sox players) to do well. I simply don't get why he's considered by fans to be a core player.

Edited March 4, 2017 by Two-Gun Pete

[mataipaepae]

First of all, I've never said Rodon is "bad," but rather "mediocre."

 

Given his talent, Id consider that a bit of a disappointment. Given his slider that he has, one would anticipate him being better than he has been so far.

 

I suppose Id consider a "core player" to be essential to a team's fortunes. I don't see that at all in this player.

 

So, convince me. (And again, I never called him "bad.")

Come on you guys. ...convince him.

 

It is vitally important that he is convinced. Rodon will forever be average if he isn't convinced.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1. He's injured right now. He can't even get through Spring Training, because of an arm issue, or a tummy ache, or God knows whatever is causing him to have to "go slow" at the tender age of 24.

 

2. He actually will be 28 when Boras has him sign elsewhere.

 

3. 6-12 WAR over 3 years is a wide spread. 2 WAR/year is "just a guy," or an average starting MLB player, or roughly what Rodon has been hereto fore. 4 WAR/year is very much a difference maker, a stud, or slightly less than early Chris Sale as a SP or slightly less than what Quintana is now.

 

Clumping the Gavin Floyds & Carlos Rodons together with the Chis Sales and Jose Quintanas over rates our now-injured SP, IMO. YMMV.

 

And, I have to re-state that I was very much a fan when he was drafted, & I very much want him (and ALL Sox players) to do well. I simply don't get why he's considered by fans to be a core player.

 

It's hard to convince you of anything when you believe in your own narrative that isn't as accurate as you'd like to think.

 

You said he is "oft" injured , I told you he had one disabled list trip that was non pitching related and offered you a chance to prove he was oft injured and all you did was cite his current status which has not been confirned as any type of injury.

 

Rodon is a free agent in 2022 and while I said he will be at or near 30 and you said he will be 28 when Boras has him sign elsewhere technically you are closer to correct. However 2022 will be his age 29 season since his 29th birthday is in December of 2021. 2017 (24) 2018 (25) 2019 (26) 2020 (27) 2021 (28) 2022 (29). SO he will be 29 for the entire season but if he signs with someone else before Dec. !0 he would still be 28 when another team signs him but for all intends and purposes in 2022 he will be 29 .

 

For the last 2 season he has flashed his upper abilities late in the season which you have called "garbage time" but I would wager that you have not looked up the box scores for those games to see which teams he faced or if the lineups were full of prospects .

 

in 2015 his last 8 starts he had a 1.81 ERA.

 

After his DL stint in 5 starts in August he had a 1.47 ERA. Now you might say big deal 5 starts but here is a link to a Fangraphs article that might give you some hope that he will become the ace we all hope he will. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/carlos-rodo...a-step-forward/

[ptatc]

1. He's injured right now. He can't even get through Spring Training, because of an arm issue, or a tummy ache, or God knows whatever is causing him to have to "go slow" at the tender age of 24.

 

2. He actually will be 28 when Boras has him sign elsewhere.

 

3. 6-12 WAR over 3 years is a wide spread. 2 WAR/year is "just a guy," or an average starting MLB player, or roughly what Rodon has been hereto fore. 4 WAR/year is very much a difference maker, a stud, or slightly less than early Chris Sale as a SP or slightly less than what Quintana is now.

 

Clumping the Gavin Floyds & Carlos Rodons together with the Chis Sales and Jose Quintanas over rates our now-injured SP, IMO. YMMV.

 

And, I have to re-state that I was very much a fan when he was drafted, & I very much want him (and ALL Sox players) to do well. I simply don't get why he's considered by fans to be a core player.

No he's not. They are delying his start of spring training so that he doesn't get over worked now. They expect more innings this season so they are easing him into the season. He will still make his start in the first week of the season, just not the first game. They did similar schedules with sale when he had arm issues the previous year.

 

Proactively trying to prevent injuries is not the same as being injured.

[southsider2k5]

Bruce Levine‏ @MLBBruceLevine 9m9 minutes ago Rodon 33 pitch side session today . Two days off and than he will throw BP on Wednesday . Don Cooper said he has not thrown full out yet .

 

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Bruce Levine‏ @MLBBruceLevine 9m9 minutes ago Rodon 33 pitch side session today . Two days off and than he will throw BP on Wednesday . Don Cooper said he has not thrown full out yet .

 

 

Levine said on radio today that he may only throw like 180 innings this year. If they are terrible, there's no reason to run him into the ground on a 100 loss team.

[SCCWS]

 

 

I saw where Chris Sale is making his first start tomorrow. Some guys do not go full throttle the first few weeks of ST.

[ptatc]

Levine said on radio today that he may only throw like 180 innings this year. If they are terrible, there's no reason to run him into the ground on a 100 loss team.

This makes sense. Not only do they slowly increase his workload but it also allows one of the younger pitchers to get some turns in the rotation.

[southsider2k5]

CSN Chicago‏Verified account @CSNChicago 34m34 minutes ago #WhiteSox eyeing fifth or sixth game of season for Carlos Rodon's first start: http://bit.ly/2mHxl6f (@JJStankevitz) #WhiteSoxTalk

 

 

[steveno89]

CSN Chicago‏Verified account @CSNChicago 34m34 minutes ago #WhiteSox eyeing fifth or sixth game of season for Carlos Rodon's first start: http://bit.ly/2mHxl6f (@JJStankevitz) #WhiteSoxTalk

 

Sox have done an outstanding job at keeping players healthy. Trust them to do the same moving forward.

 

Why ride Riding hard in a rebuilt year? If much rather limit his innings to Dave good seem for when we are competitive again

[Dick Allen]

Sox have done an outstanding job at keeping players healthy. Trust them to do the same moving forward.

 

Why ride Riding hard in a rebuilt year? If much rather limit his innings to Dave good seem for when we are competitive again

I agree with this. There is no reason for him to throw 220 innings for the White Sox in 2017.