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Updated teams interested in Q


harfman77

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QUOTE (iamshack @ May 24, 2017 -> 07:46 PM)
Abreu and Q would be great veterans to usher in the next era of White Sox baseball.

 

We could do much worse...

 

It's too bad Rodon was abducted by aliens, as he could have been a great trade chip

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QUOTE (fathom @ May 24, 2017 -> 01:45 PM)
It's too bad Rodon was abducted by aliens, as he could have been a great trade chip

If he comes back ok, I don't really mind...preserving service time for more important times...

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QUOTE (iamshack @ May 24, 2017 -> 03:59 PM)
Ugh, for real?

 

Absolutely.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/115853014/ev...t-service-time/

 

On the flip side, players receive service time when they are on the Major League disabled list, which means that Zack Wheeler will move closer to free agency even though he won't pitch this year.
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QUOTE (Real @ May 24, 2017 -> 04:45 PM)
You can kiss the value Q had in the off-season goodbye. 4.82 ERA atm. lol

 

Yup. A lot of us were saying that the potential increase in return wasn't even close to being worth the risk of running him out there this season. His value was at its peak the day after his WBC start. He shouldn't have started a single game for the Sox this year.

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QUOTE (Footlongcomiskeydog @ May 24, 2017 -> 04:09 PM)
How are the Sox gonna move along the rebuild if they don't move Q? Also, the Sox will most likely be pretty terrible over the remainder of Q's contract. Keeping him here during the rebuild doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

 

They just have to adjust what they expect in return. I agree it doesn't make sense to keep him around, but they have to give him another season to rebuild value, like with Robertson. Maybe he gets hot at the end of this year and finishes with nearly normal Q numbers. In that case, they will get less, but not a lot less. If he doesn't rebound before the deadline next year, they are in real trouble, and the rebuild could lengthen considerably.

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QUOTE (daggins @ May 24, 2017 -> 05:25 PM)
They just have to adjust what they expect in return. I agree it doesn't make sense to keep him around, but they have to give him another season to rebuild value, like with Robertson. Maybe he gets hot at the end of this year and finishes with nearly normal Q numbers. In that case, they will get less, but not a lot less. If he doesn't rebound before the deadline next year, they are in real trouble, and the rebuild could lengthen considerably.

 

No. If you don't get full price, you sit on him.

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"Full price" doesn't exist. His value decreases every day he is on this team. Which is why his poor start is doubly unfortunate - even if he has a terrific ROS, his value this winter is much less than it was last winter, and will be even less at the deadline next year. The Sox won't be inclined to trade him if he isn't pitching well, so they will just keep decreasing his value.

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We better hope he returns to form by the deadline and they can move him for something to move the rebuild forward. Otherwise we need a solid year the rest of the season and they need to trade him in the offseason. Sonny Gray kicked ass and looks like the better value right now. Darkish too.

 

I hope they do deal Robertson though. As far as I am concerned, they need a 3B, C, and OF in some transactions over the next year or so.

Edited by New Era on South Side
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Rangers have a tough decision on Darvish. Cole Hamels, too. Astros are running away from everyone.

 

Same with the Royals on Duffy and Perez....if Gordon and Soler are going to be worthless forever. They already lost Yordano Ventura. Herrera's definitely going to be dealt as his stuff has degraded slightly from 2-3 years ago.

 

You've also got Gray and Archer with increasing value compared to last year. Gerrit Cole. Etc.

 

Rentals like Holland, Vargas and Hector Santiago (unless the Twins stay close to first). Twins could fall out of it and get a ton for Erwin Santana this season, for example. Giants can move Cueto...not looking good for a Q haul.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (daggins @ May 24, 2017 -> 05:57 PM)
"Full price" doesn't exist. His value decreases every day he is on this team. Which is why his poor start is doubly unfortunate - even if he has a terrific ROS, his value this winter is much less than it was last winter, and will be even less at the deadline next year. The Sox won't be inclined to trade him if he isn't pitching well, so they will just keep decreasing his value.

 

Instead you get his production.

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There was no reason to keep Q after we traded Sale. Deal shoulda been struck in the offseason if they were planning on trading him at all. You never take a chance on a guy having a stellar year when you are planning to trade him. Now if we want to keep Q, never mind.

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I was in the camp that Q should have been traded before the season started. That being said, the underlying numbers this year are not nearly as bad as the surface numbers.

 

1) FIP is a full run lower than his ERA

2) K Rate is easily the highest of his career

3) BB Rate is also easily the highest of his career by a wide margin which just smells a little fluky to me.

4) He's running a pretty high FlyBall% currently which is likely leading to his increase in HR/9, but his Hard % & Soft %'s are better than his previous two years. You would expect that to even out.

5) Looks like he's giving up some untimely hits (similar to yesterday) as his LOB% is rather low at 66%. League average usually sits in the 74-75%.

 

All in all, Quintana looks a tad unlucky based on the above. I'm not an analytics guy, but those are some of the numbers I've been trained to look at from Fangraphs articles (when trying to find some buy-low/sell-high SPs for fantasy). I think the most encouraging thing is the K Rate is way up this year. Everyone thinks that Quintana is a pitch to contact guy, but an an 8.76% K/9 rate is very very good. The BB Rate is curious as he's throwing about as many pitches in the zone as he was last year and his first-pitch strike percentage is in line with last year. If he turns some of those Flyballs into outs rather than HR's, the numbers should correct themselves.

 

Despite the above, he's going to need to get his ERA down to around 3.6-3.8ish territory or else it's going to be hard for teams to justify trading multiple top prospects for 4+ ERA, especially with other SPs available. Obviously the good thing is the Sox have time to trade Q given his contract so I'm not really worried about not getting a good package for him - they will at some point.

 

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