Updated teams interested in Q

[footlongcomiskeydog]

Simple, they're going to have to trade Robertson, Swarzak, Holland, Frazier, Cabrera and Nate Jones (if healthy).

 

Rule 5 Draft again

 

Free agents, probably not this offseason, but after 2018...depending upon where the rebuild is.

 

There's always the possibility of a Japanese/Korean player as well.

 

Finally, they're getting positive contributions out of Avi Garcia, Davidson, Leury Garcia and Yolmer Sanchez. Before the season began, Saladino was the ONLY one of those five who looked like he could be a part of the future. You also have Nicky Delmonico, Engel, Danny Hayes, Willy Garcia, Liriano...the "net positive" of all the players listed in this paragraph is pretty high, based on preseason expectations. But yeah, Collins and Moncada both have to be studs. Robert needs to be a 3+ WAR guy.

 

You forgot Basabe at Winston-Salem...Call and Fisher, as well.

 

And you're leaving out the 1st/2nd/3rd round draft picks in 2017/18/19.

 

Finally, you have a Top 3 organization in MILB...some of that pitching can potentially be a valuable trade piece for the Sox.

 

 

Robertson is the only guy listed who has a chance to bring back a top 100 prospect. The rest of those guys have little to no trade value.

 

The rule 5 draft has like a 1 in a hundred chance of producing anyone worthwhile.

 

The Sox blew their international load on Robert so I'm not sure I would be counting on the Asian market at this time.

 

Let's hope Avi can stick and continues to hit. Sanchez and Leury are nice utility players but probably not starters on a real contender. All those other players are most likely career AAAA players.

 

Basabe is barely hitting his weight at A ball. Same for Call. Fisher is looking good, however.

 

The Sox need to hit on their early round picks the next few years most defintely.

 

I'm not seeing a top 3 MILB organization once Moncada is in the bigs. Q pooping the bed so far this year is gonna delay the rebuild big time. No doubt about it.

[soxforlife05]

He's had a lot of good starts this year not sure I understand the sky is falling sentiment. Yes he's had some really bad ones to go along with that but to me that points to inconsistent mechanics, tipping pitches, etc. If I'm Hahn I am trying to extend an additional 2 years before his option years kick in. He can be a valuable piece in a stacked rotation when our window opens.

[Kyyle23]

I wonder what Qs ERA is with each catcher. Seems like Smith calls a lot of curveballs last night, and they were getting crushed

[SCCWS]

He's had a lot of good starts this year not sure I understand the sky is falling sentiment. Yes he's had some really bad ones to go along with that but to me that points to inconsistent mechanics, tipping pitches, etc. If I'm Hahn I am trying to extend an additional 2 years before his option years kick in. He can be a valuable piece in a stacked rotation when our window opens.

 

But if his fastball has lost some velocity as the Globe writer said last night, maybe the stint w Columbia screwed up his training schedule.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Keeping Quintana doesn't make any sense. They need the prospects that they will ultimately get in return for him. People keep talking about 2019 but the Sox don't have many long-term answers as far as position players go. Where are those guys coming from? They are banking on Moncada, Anderson, Robert, and Collins. What if a couple of them bust though? They need to keep adding. Quintana will need a new contract by the time the Sox are good again so I just don't think keeping him makes any sense and I also don't know how this team is playoff ready in 2019.

[Bob Sacamano]

Keeping Quintana doesn't make any sense. They need the prospects that they will ultimately get in return for him. People keep talking about 2019 but the Sox don't have many long-term answers as far as position players go. Where are those guys coming from? They are banking on Moncada, Anderson, Robert, and Collins. What if a couple of them bust though? They need to keep adding. Quintana will need a new contract by the time the Sox are good again so I just don't think keeping him makes any sense and I also don't know how this team is playoff ready in 2019.

 

Yeah and evwn if those guys are ready in 2019, its no sure thing they will be grrat right away.

[steveno89]

Keeping Quintana doesn't make any sense. They need the prospects that they will ultimately get in return for him. People keep talking about 2019 but the Sox don't have many long-term answers as far as position players go. Where are those guys coming from? They are banking on Moncada, Anderson, Robert, and Collins. What if a couple of them bust though? They need to keep adding. Quintana will need a new contract by the time the Sox are good again so I just don't think keeping him makes any sense and I also don't know how this team is playoff ready in 2019.

 

Tough to deal Quintana if the offers just were not satisfactory though. It would have been a big mistake to deal him for a subpar return and pray that those guys pan out. I have faith Q will right the ship and perform well again. Nearly all pitchers go through rough stretches at some point.

 

We have to think the team is carefully planning for the 2017 draft and looking to add talent. Following up what is shaping up to be a pretty strong 2016 draft with another in 2017 will be vital to our rebuild.

[Chicago White Sox]

Keeping Quintana doesn't make any sense. They need the prospects that they will ultimately get in return for him. People keep talking about 2019 but the Sox don't have many long-term answers as far as position players go. Where are those guys coming from? They are banking on Moncada, Anderson, Robert, and Collins. What if a couple of them bust though? They need to keep adding. Quintana will need a new contract by the time the Sox are good again so I just don't think keeping him makes any sense and I also don't know how this team is playoff ready in 2019.

Great post. The "worst case scenario we'll just keep him for when we're good" argument never made sense with Quintana.

 

And what really sucks is out projected prospect haul at the deadline is greatly reduced. Robertson is the only guy who seems likely to land a top 100 prospect at this point. If Nate Jones can get healthy soon he could as well. The rest of our trade assets, Holland, Gonzalez, Swarzak, Frazier, & Melky, are going to land back-end org top 10 guys and lottery tickets. Obviously you take what you can for those guys, but it's not going to move the needle like a Quintana trade.

[bmags]

I have a feeling we'll be seeing less "Then you don't get Q!" hard bargain posts.

[ptatc]

Keeping Quintana doesn't make any sense. They need the prospects that they will ultimately get in return for him. People keep talking about 2019 but the Sox don't have many long-term answers as far as position players go. Where are those guys coming from? They are banking on Moncada, Anderson, Robert, and Collins. What if a couple of them bust though? They need to keep adding. Quintana will need a new contract by the time the Sox are good again so I just don't think keeping him makes any sense and I also don't know how this team is playoff ready in 2019.

Not if those prospects value are less then his.

 

If they aren't good again by 2020, all of these prospects will have failed so it really doesn't matter either way.

 

 

[ptatc]

I have a feeling we'll be seeing less "Then you don't get Q!" hard bargain posts.

But they should stick to that. The shouldn't try to sell him when his value is at his lowest. They may just need to wait.

[iamshack]

I wonder what Qs ERA is with each catcher. Seems like Smith calls a lot of curveballs last night, and they were getting crushed

I'm so sick of Kevan Smith.

[GreatScott82]

I listened to the Hahn interview yesterday and when he mentioned those underwhelming offers for Q, I understood why he decided to keep him. He was simply banking on Q being himself, posting quality numbers like he typically does and using that as even more evidence of his 'ace' quality value heading into the non-waiver trade deadline. Nobody could have saw this coming, especially after his stellar WBC performance. Perhaps the trade rumors are getting to him a little bit? Perhaps it is the 1-2mph velocity decrease or his curve ball being way too high in the zone? Whatever the case maybe, if Hahn had a hard time dealing Q for respectable and fair return during the offseason, how the heck will he get that requested value at the trade deadline this year? Especially when more and more teams start falling out of races, making their own starting pitchers available for contenders. Unless Q can quickly fix his issues and rattle off 3-4 quality starts in a row, it looks like he will remain a White Sox for the rest of the 2017 season. Good news is that rebuilds take time and he still is under contractual control for another 3.5 seasons.

Edited May 31, 2017 by GreatScott82

[iamshack]

Great post. The "worst case scenario we'll just keep him for when we're good" argument never made sense with Quintana.

 

And what really sucks is out projected prospect haul at the deadline is greatly reduced. Robertson is the only guy who seems likely to land a top 100 prospect at this point. If Nate Jones can get healthy soon he could as well. The rest of our trade assets, Holland, Gonzalez, Swarzak, Frazier, & Melky, are going to land back-end org top 10 guys and lottery tickets. Obviously you take what you can for those guys, but it's not going to move the needle like a Quintana trade.

So what are you arguing for?

[Dick Allen]

Q is going through a rough patch. He'll be fine. It's amazing, you have a couple of bad games and that is now what you are, ignoring the past. Avi has had a good 2 months, but he is still what he was in the past. Why do people prefer to take the suck side of things so often?

 

More often than not, moving toward the mean occurs. Q is still a very valuable pitcher.

Edited May 31, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

It's impossible to have a legitimate opinion on whether or not to trade Quintana without knowing the offers on the table -- both during this past offseason and during the coming trade deadline season.

 

That said, we DO need more prospects. We have a lot of good ones now, but not nearly enough to account for attrition. As much I love Quintana, we're not to the point where we can start looking at current stars and realistically expecting them to be stars for our next contender. We very much still need to be in asset collection mode if we're going to do this the right way.

[Dick Allen]

It's impossible to have a legitimate opinion on whether or not to trade Quintana without knowing the offers on the table -- both during this past offseason and during the coming trade deadline season.

 

That said, we DO need more prospects. We have a lot of good ones now, but not nearly enough to account for attrition. As much I love Quintana, we're not to the point where we can start looking at current stars and realistically expecting them to be stars for our next contender. We very much still need to be in asset collection mode if we're going to do this the right way.

Of course. And there was very little info on actual offers. All I ever saw was player x wasn't on the table. . Hahn said there never was anything even close. Whether that is true or not is anyone's guess as well, but it's hard to say he should have been traded if you have no idea what was coming back.

[iamshack]

It's impossible to have a legitimate opinion on whether or not to trade Quintana without knowing the offers on the table -- both during this past offseason and during the coming trade deadline season.

 

That said, we DO need more prospects. We have a lot of good ones now, but not nearly enough to account for attrition. As much I love Quintana, we're not to the point where we can start looking at current stars and realistically expecting them to be stars for our next contender. We very much still need to be in asset collection mode if we're going to do this the right way.

I can tell you this though, at least based on past history:

 

The market will not account for the amount of decreased service time nearly as much as it might account for a drop-off in performance. Meaning, if you have to hold him while he recoups his value, so be it. You don't move him during this deadline simply because you feel the need to cash in all of your chips. Hold him and move him next offseason or next deadline, or whenever his performance dictates offers that are more palatable.

[Bob Sacamano]

If they end up trading him by August, they likely settled on "best offer" not necessarily meaning a team is giving them what they wanted in the off-season. Of course, there is still time for him to right his season. At this point, I'm starting to think he gets moved next trade deadline (2018). Prove me wrong Q and Hahn.

[bmags]

Q is going through a rough patch. He'll be fine. It's amazing, you have a couple of bad games and that is now what you are, ignoring the past. Avi has had a good 2 months, but he is still what he was in the past. Why do people prefer to take the suck side of things so often?

 

More often than not, moving toward the mean occurs. Q is still a very valuable pitcher.

 

I love Q, but he isn't having a couple bad games. He's having a bad year.

[Jose Abreu]

But they should stick to that. The shouldn't try to sell him when his value is at his lowest. They may just need to wait.

Exactly. You don't trade a guy just to trade him. There's no rush.

[Dick Allen]

I love Q, but he isn't having a couple bad games. He's having a bad year.

His ERA was about what his career ERA is at the moment he got lit up in AZ after 3 scoreless, hitless frames. Pretty much his last 4 innings has raised his ERA almost 2.00. It was 3.72 before he imploded.But the strikeout guys should love it. His k rate the last 2 outings is terrific.

Edited May 31, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Baron]

I hate it when I'm right sometimes.

 

This is the game Hahn wanted to play. He's got to live with it now.

 

Keeping him beyond the deadline didnt make sense months ago and it still doesnt. Even if he played well they would still probably need to adjust their asking price for anybody to meet it.

Edited May 31, 2017 by Baron

[Chicago White Sox]

So what are you arguing for?

I'm arguing that many posters here didn't fully acknowledge the risk of holding onto Quintana. The idea of keeping him for "when we are good again" was lunacy from the get-go IMO.

 

Coming into the season, if you believed we couldn't realistically compete over the course of the next three seasons, then Jose Quintana was effectively worth whatever you projected his 2020 WAR to be us. Let's say that's 4 WAR. For another team he could have effectively been worth 15 to 18 WAR over that same period. The opportunity cost of keeping him and not receiving value from another team for his 2017 to 2019 production would have always been tremendous.

 

Whether Hahn received an acceptable offer during the offseason, we'll never know or be able to prove. The problem I have is fair value is typically defined as what the market bares (assuming no market constraints). And given how this was one of the worst markets for starting pitching in recent history, it's hard for me to believe that not a single team was willing to pony up and pay fair value. Therefore, I'm willing to speculate that Hahn may have over-valued Quintana or under-estimated the risk of holding. I said in the game thread last night, but if teams were skeptical of Quintana being a legit TOR starter before, this bad stretch where his elite command has gone to s*** isn't going to help matters.

[Bob Sacamano]

I'm arguing that many posters here didn't fully acknowledge the risk of holding onto Quintana. The idea of keeping him for "when we are good again" was lunacy from the get-go IMO.

 

Coming into the season, if you believed we couldn't realistically compete over the course of the next three seasons, then Jose Quintana was effectively worth whatever you projected his 2020 WAR to be us. Let's say that's 4 WAR. For another team he could have effectively been worth 15 to 18 WAR over that same period. The opportunity cost of keeping him and not receiving value from another team for his 2017 to 2019 production would have always been tremendous.

 

Whether Hahn received an acceptable offer during the offseason, we'll never know or be able to prove. The problem I have is fair value is typically defined as what the market bares (assuming no market constraints). And given how this was one of the worst markets for starting pitching in recent history, it's hard for me to believe that not a single team was willing to pony up and pay fair value. Therefore, I'm willing to speculate that Hahn may have over-valued Quintana or under-estimated the risk of holding. I said in the game thread last night, but if teams were skeptical of Quintana being a legit TOR starter before, this bad stretch where his elite command has gone to s*** isn't going to help matters.

 

It's at the point where I think he is here the remainder of the season. Of course, he still has 2 full months (what is that, 13-15 starts?) to up his value.