Updated teams interested in Q

[iamshack]

I'm arguing that many posters here didn't fully acknowledge the risk of holding onto Quintana. The idea of keeping him for "when we are good again" was lunacy from the get-go IMO.

 

Coming into the season, if you believed we couldn't realistically compete over the course of the next three seasons, then Jose Quintana was effectively worth whatever you projected his 2020 WAR to be us. Let's say that's 4 WAR. For another team he could have effectively been worth 15 to 18 WAR over that same period. The opportunity cost of keeping him and not receiving value from another team for his 2017 to 2019 production would have always been tremendous.

 

Whether Hahn received an acceptable offer during the offseason, we'll never know or be able to prove. The problem I have is fair value is typically defined as what the market bares (assuming no market constraints). And given how this was one of the worst markets for starting pitching in recent history, it's hard for me to believe that not a single team was willing to pony up and pay fair value. Therefore, I'm willing to speculate that Hahn may have over-valued Quintana or under-estimated the risk of holding. I said in the game thread last night, but if teams were skeptical of Quintana being a legit TOR starter before, this bad stretch where his elite command has gone to s*** isn't going to help matters.

Yeah, this is entirely speculation and isn't a rabbit hole worth going down.

 

What you aren't addressing is the fact that Quintana's performance over the first two months of the season doesn't taint the ability to move the guy over the next year or even two years. I get that his value theoretically decreases as his time under contract decreases, but not at a rate that exceeds the value lost by either trading him now or trading him coming into the season for a subpar offer.

 

[bmags]

His ERA was about what his career ERA is at the moment he got lit up in AZ after 3 scoreless, hitless frames. Pretty much his last 4 innings has raised his ERA almost 2.00. It was 3.72 before he imploded.But the strikeout guys should love it. His k rate the last 2 outings is terrific.

 

Which he had to get down after 4 bad starts to the season. I don't know about you, but being terrible in 50% of your starts isn't the best season to me.

[steveno89]

I'm arguing that many posters here didn't fully acknowledge the risk of holding onto Quintana. The idea of keeping him for "when we are good again" was lunacy from the get-go IMO.

 

Coming into the season, if you believed we couldn't realistically compete over the course of the next three seasons, then Jose Quintana was effectively worth whatever you projected his 2020 WAR to be us. Let's say that's 4 WAR. For another team he could have effectively been worth 15 to 18 WAR over that same period. The opportunity cost of keeping him and not receiving value from another team for his 2017 to 2019 production would have always been tremendous.

 

Whether Hahn received an acceptable offer during the offseason, we'll never know or be able to prove. The problem I have is fair value is typically defined as what the market bares (assuming no market constraints). And given how this was one of the worst markets for starting pitching in recent history, it's hard for me to believe that not a single team was willing to pony up and pay fair value. Therefore, I'm willing to speculate that Hahn may have over-valued Quintana or under-estimated the risk of holding. I said in the game thread last night, but if teams were skeptical of Quintana being a legit TOR starter before, this bad stretch where his elite command has gone to s*** isn't going to help matters.

 

Hahn specifically came out and said that the offers for Quintana were not acceptable during the offseason. Sometimes the market gets tapped out or is not the right timing for certain moves. Moncada was not on the table at the deadline last year, but was made available in the offseason. Dealing Sale/Eaton does not force us to deal Quintana right away.

[Baron]

The problem is what does he mean by not acceptable? Not a complete overpay or fair market value? I have a feeling and it's been said before that he wanted a complete overpay. Look at the free agent list next offseason. You think that's going to change?

 

Lets just say he continues to struggle and doesnt get traded this deadline. His market is going to move at a snails pace this offseason if it moves at all. Chances of him getting traded this offseason I think are slim to none. Even closer to none if he continues to play like this.

Edited May 31, 2017 by Baron

[iamshack]

The problem is what does he mean by not acceptable? Not a complete overpay or fair market value? I have a feeling and it's been said before that he wanted a complete overpay. Look at the free agent list next offseason. You think that's going to change ?

We can never know for sure. All we know is the rumors that leaked out, and many of those involved teams saying their top prospects were off the table.

 

Doubtful that those offers, if indeed those were the best offers, wouldn't be available down the road.

[Y2Jimmy0]

It's impossible to have a legitimate opinion on whether or not to trade Quintana without knowing the offers on the table -- both during this past offseason and during the coming trade deadline season.

 

That said, we DO need more prospects. We have a lot of good ones now, but not nearly enough to account for attrition. As much I love Quintana, we're not to the point where we can start looking at current stars and realistically expecting them to be stars for our next contender. We very much still need to be in asset collection mode if we're going to do this the right way.

 

 

This is a great post

[Baron]

We can never know for sure. All we know is the rumors that leaked out, and many of those involved teams saying their top prospects were off the table.

 

Doubtful that those offers, if indeed those were the best offers, wouldn't be available down the road.

 

 

They might not be. I think if they wait for this offseason they may have to start from scratch.

[ChiSox59]

It is probably pretty much a foregone conclusion that Quintana is not going to be traded during this season. But thankfully, we still control him for 18, 19 and 20, so we still have plenty of time to deal him. Having 4 very affordable years on his deal put Q's value past the point of what anyone was willing to give up. The Sox will likely be able to get a very comparable package to what was offered last offseason this coming offseason, or even after 2018. There is a point of diminishing returns, and his contract status was past that.

 

It sucks he's taken a clear step back so far this year, but really, it isn't the end of the world.

[bmags]

If Hahn and our scouts did not like any of the returns, I understand. But I always thought the thread of holding onto the player was empty to me. I really, really don't like holding 100% of the risk like this. As Eminor said, we need prospects. More than just a 2017 class will get us. More than a reliever swap will get us.

 

He was the only piece capable of bringing back an A prospect with additional B/B- players. Frazier crapping the bed is as bad.

 

You do have to keep him now, but I'd rather have spread risk out among 4 prospects and getting a "bad return" than keep a player that is great now but a risk through injuiries and fallen performance of helping us when we need gain competitiveness.

[iamshack]

Some of you guys are really frustrating.

 

You aren't really suggesting a realistic course of action moving forward. Just gloating that impatience should have been rewarded now that Quintana has underperformed.

 

I think Hahn deserves the benefit of the doubt, considering he actually had all the information, while the rest of us were the beneficiaries of leaks and other forms of inaccurate information, and that while by no means optimal, our current position is the position we find ourselves in.

 

Rather than continue to gloat, what is the best path forward?

[Baron]

The best path forward is hope he improves and trade him at the deadline. Done.

[Soha]

I'm arguing that many posters here didn't fully acknowledge the risk of holding onto Quintana. The idea of keeping him for "when we are good again" was lunacy from the get-go IMO.

 

Coming into the season, if you believed we couldn't realistically compete over the course of the next three seasons, then Jose Quintana was effectively worth whatever you projected his 2020 WAR to be us. Let's say that's 4 WAR. For another team he could have effectively been worth 15 to 18 WAR over that same period. The opportunity cost of keeping him and not receiving value from another team for his 2017 to 2019 production would have always been tremendous.

 

Whether Hahn received an acceptable offer during the offseason, we'll never know or be able to prove. The problem I have is fair value is typically defined as what the market bares (assuming no market constraints). And given how this was one of the worst markets for starting pitching in recent history, it's hard for me to believe that not a single team was willing to pony up and pay fair value. Therefore, I'm willing to speculate that Hahn may have over-valued Quintana or under-estimated the risk of holding. I said in the game thread last night, but if teams were skeptical of Quintana being a legit TOR starter before, this bad stretch where his elite command has gone to s*** isn't going to help matters.

 

But what deal do you think they should have taken for ? The best reported deal I heard was headlined by Tyler Glasnow, who's ERA is around 7. If it's Glasnow or keep Q and suffer through his bad year, then I'll take keeping Q. Even if Q sucks the entire year, I'll still have confidence that he figures it out over the winter and is back next year. It's better than taking hot garbage for him.

[Bob Sacamano]

But what deal do you think they should have taken for ? The best reported deal I heard was headlined by Tyler Glasnow, who's ERA is around 7. If it's Glasnow or keep Q and suffer through his bad year, then I'll take keeping Q. Even if Q sucks the entire year, I'll still have confidence that he figures it out over the winter and is back next year. It's better than taking hot garbage for him.

 

Best reported one I think we saw was headlined by Martes and Tucker but the Sox wanted Musgrove. We don't know how many were actually real though.

[Bob Sacamano]

Also sucks that fans of other teams that said he isn't good or not an ace or worth a near Sale-like haul all probably act like they were correct all along.

Edited May 31, 2017 by soxfan2014

[iamshack]

Best reported one I think we saw was headlined by Martes and Tucker but the Sox wanted Musgrove. We don't know how many were actually real though.

If the Astros genuinely offered their top two prospects, and Hahn stated that no one was very close, I find that hard to believe.

[southsider2k5]

I wonder what Qs ERA is with each catcher. Seems like Smith calls a lot of curveballs last night, and they were getting crushed

 

His BAA in the last two games is .621.

 

When you are as good as Q and getting hit that hard, to me that means you are tipping something. Maybe he is slowing up his motion on his off-speed stuff, or he has developed a tell, but even Dylan Covey wasn't getting hit .621 hard.

[southsider2k5]

But what deal do you think they should have taken for ? The best reported deal I heard was headlined by Tyler Glasnow, who's ERA is around 7. If it's Glasnow or keep Q and suffer through his bad year, then I'll take keeping Q. Even if Q sucks the entire year, I'll still have confidence that he figures it out over the winter and is back next year. It's better than taking hot garbage for him.

 

That and Kevin Newman, who is sporting a stellar .613 OPS this year.

[Soha]

Best reported one I think we saw was headlined by Martes and Tucker but the Sox wanted Musgrove. We don't know how many were actually real though.

 

My recollections were that the Astros didn't want to move either of those guys.

[footlongcomiskeydog]

The thing that sucks the most of this is fans of other teams that said he isn't good or not an ace or worth a Sale-like haul all probably act like they were correct all along.

 

Q was never going to get a Sale like haul. It was that line of thinking that has put the Sox in the position they are now in with Q. Sale was a Mercedes and Q is more like a Suburu.

 

Things change fast in baseball. Before the season people would have thought the Sox got fleeced if they had traded Q to the Yanks for a package centered around Judge. Now the Yanks would laugh at an offer of Q straight up for Judge. Same thing with that Tucker kid from Houston. His stock is rising while Q's is on a freefall.

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

No, that isn't what sucks the most.

 

Q rocking a plus 5 ERA in June sucks pretty hard. Who cares what some meatballs in Houston think.

 

Yeah idk why I typed "the most" part lol fixed for accuracy.

Edited May 31, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Bob Sacamano]

Hope for the best the next 2 months. Next few starts should be against the Rays, Indians, Blue Jays, Twins and then Yankees. Can change of course if they alter the rotation, guys come back from injuries, other injuries occur, etc.

Edited May 31, 2017 by soxfan2014

[footlongcomiskeydog]

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-white-so...umors-white-sox

 

http://southsideshowdown.com/2017/01/11/wh...pects-quintana/

 

From these reports, Hahn wanted two to three elite prospects for Q in the offseason.

 

Think he is going to get anything close to that now or anytime soon?

[harfman77]

The Sox are still in a really good position. They have no need to trade Q at this point and someone is going to have to blown them away to get him.

 

I think this years results are more of a product of having the revolving door of catchers that have not had experience handling Q in the past. His elevated K and BB rates indicate that they are taking a different approach to getting hitters out.

 

Looking two years down the road, if Q is not traded, you have a rotation of Kopech, Q, Rodon, Fulmer, Lopez/Dunning/Giolito/ Hansen/ or Adams. At that point you can still either look at trading or extending Q depending on how things are working out for the team at that time and having a veteran in the sea of young arms will not be a bad thing.

 

I am not against moving Q, but he is probably a guy that at this point has more value to the Sox if they keep him than anyone is willing to give up. That was true in the offseason when no one wanted to meet the Sox price and is true today. Whenever someone is willing to offer an appropriate value Q will be traded but there is still no need to make a move for the sake of trading him.

[footlongcomiskeydog]

The Sox are still in a really good position. They have no need to trade Q at this point and someone is going to have to blown them away to get him.

 

I think this years results are more of a product of having the revolving door of catchers that have not had experience handling Q in the past. His elevated K and BB rates indicate that they are taking a different approach to getting hitters out.

 

Looking two years down the road, if Q is not traded, you have a rotation of Kopech, Q, Rodon, Fulmer, Lopez/Dunning/Giolito/ Hansen/ or Adams. At that point you can still either look at trading or extending Q depending on how things are working out for the team at that time and having a veteran in the sea of young arms will not be a bad thing.

 

I am not against moving Q, but he is probably a guy that at this point has more value to the Sox if they keep him than anyone is willing to give up. That was true in the offseason when no one wanted to meet the Sox price and is true today. Whenever someone is willing to offer an appropriate value Q will be traded but there is still no need to make a move for the sake of trading him.

 

So you think Kopech is going to be the #1 starter for the Sox two years from now? Also, Fulmer has been getting lit up in AAA this year. He might be destined for the bulpen. I'm not sure that Dunning or Hansen will be ready in two years either.

 

What is appropriate value for Q?

 

 

[GGajewski18]

Still think we can net Frazier ++ for Q from the Yankees.