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Predict the 2017 Opening Day Roster


Bob Sacamano

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Just to add some context around May and Engel...

 

May has half a season in AAA (83 games), where he hit .266, drew walks at just a 4.6% rate, didn't show any power, and struck out 22.4% of the time. That's after only playing about 60% of a season in AA the year before due to a concussion - so he's been moving up a little fast as it is. He's a fringy prospect leaning heavily on speed (plus) and glove (above average or better), but his hit tool is a question mark, there's no power and he has a below average arm. He's a guy you want to make sure gets very comfortable hitting, because that will need to carry him. You don't want to rush him any more than he's already been rushed.

 

Engel is even less ready. He's only got 41 games in AAA, where he hit .242 and struck out in a whopping 31% of his PA (though he did walk and show more power than May). He's got a big ceiling but has struggled specifically with consistency at the plate - the definition of a prospect you want to let get well-settled before moving him up.

 

Let them develop.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 15, 2017 -> 09:16 AM)
If you want May and Engel to get the best possible shot for their future, then you want them getting starting time, and at a level that neither has shown much mastery over yet (AAA). There' no need to rush them.

 

Northside: Agree on that approach. But when someone debated Moncada down to AA vs AAA, I brought up the question of hitting instruction. I live part of the year( baseball season) in Red Sox territory and they have a pretty extensive group of batting instructors. Obviously the results have been outstanding w the group of young hitters on their roster. But their pitching development has been abysmal. Have the White Sox made any significant changes to their farm system to accomodate the influx of young talent especially on the hitting side?

 

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QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Mar 15, 2017 -> 08:09 AM)
Maybe not, but I don't think Leury is anything more than a AAAA player and I would be highly surprised if he was a long term piece in this rebuild. May and Engel probably won't become MLB regulars either but I'd rather give them a shot since they've never had one. Leury is what he is at this point.

 

Rushing kids who are not ready is the worst possible thing you can do in a rebuild. I'd rather start a line up of 4A players, than kids who still have more to learn in the minors.

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QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Mar 15, 2017 -> 09:13 AM)
I didn't realize May and Engel were so inexperienced at AAA, so I guess some at-bats there would do them well. I'd still like to see them in the Majors at some point in 2017 though. Leury is nothing but a placeholder as far as I'm concerned.

 

I think they will be up early. Melky SHOULD be traded at some point (no reason to hold onto him the rest of the season) so there should be an opening in LF at some point.

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Mar 15, 2017 -> 09:25 AM)
I think they will be up early. Melky SHOULD be traded at some point (no reason to hold onto him the rest of the season) so there should be an opening in LF at some point.

 

I think the opposite. I think the reason they brought in all of the fringe guys that they did (Liriano, Asche, Burjos, Garcia) is that they knew these kids weren't ready, and they wanted to buy them potentially as much as a season for them to either be ready, or for new prospects to supplant them.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 15, 2017 -> 09:36 AM)
I think the opposite. I think the reason they brought in all of the fringe guys that they did (Liriano, Asche, Burjos, Garcia) is that they knew these kids weren't ready, and they wanted to buy them potentially as much as a season for them to either be ready, or for new prospects to supplant them.

 

True. I guess that group does deserve a shot first (not so much Bourjos, he should be 4th OF) since they are still young themselves. Since Tilson won't be ready at the beginning of the season, I'm 100% ok with Liriano playing CF.

Edited by soxfan2014
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The rational for keeping Avi is he is 25 and may still amount to something with the bat. He has 1500 MLB at bats is the counter argument and defense will never be a forte. I can't believe I am writing this but Leury offers defensive versatility, is only 25 and has a little over 300 MLB at bats. In the minors, he has hit, especially with consistent playing time. You could argue he is as likely to blossom as Avi. On a rebuilding team I guess it is worth a shot. I would try to give him regular at bats to gain some comfort/rhythm. Let him platoon in center and sub in other places. Chance of him being something I would put at 10% but this is what you do in a rebuild.

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1B. Abreu

2B. Saladino

SS. Anderson

3B. Frazier

LF. Melky

CF. Bourjos

RF. Avi

C. Narvaez / Soto

DH. Davidson

 

BN: Leury, Sanchez, Narvarez/Soto, Liriano

 

Rotation: Q, Rodon, Gonzalez, Holland, Shields

 

BP: Robertson, Jones, Jennings, Putnam, Petricka, Ynoa, Covey

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 15, 2017 -> 07:53 AM)
Just to add some context around May and Engel...

 

May has half a season in AAA (83 games), where he hit .266, drew walks at just a 4.6% rate, didn't show any power, and struck out 22.4% of the time. That's after only playing about 60% of a season in AA the year before due to a concussion - so he's been moving up a little fast as it is. He's a fringy prospect leaning heavily on speed (plus) and glove (above average or better), but his hit tool is a question mark, there's no power and he has a below average arm. He's a guy you want to make sure gets very comfortable hitting, because that will need to carry him. You don't want to rush him any more than he's already been rushed.

 

Engel is even less ready. He's only got 41 games in AAA, where he hit .242 and struck out in a whopping 31% of his PA (though he did walk and show more power than May). He's got a big ceiling but has struggled specifically with consistency at the plate - the definition of a prospect you want to let get well-settled before moving him up.

 

Let them develop.

 

Both of these dudes are 25. I am fine giving them another couple months in AAA, but at this point they probably are what they are. In what is going to be a lost season, they better get some time in CF.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Mar 15, 2017 -> 01:56 PM)
Both of these dudes are 25. I am fine giving them another couple months in AAA, but at this point they probably are what they are. In what is going to be a lost season, they better get some time in CF.

I'm guessing they will split CF duties in Charlotte, alternating to a corner and/or DH for playing time.

 

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QUOTE (flavum @ Mar 17, 2017 -> 05:54 PM)
Listening to Hahn today, sounds like Bourjos is going to be in CF, with Leury on the bench. Engel and May getting more minor league time.

 

Saladino and Sanchez will share 2b.

Pretty much how I expected it. Still leaves two spots between Davidson, Asche, & Liriano.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Mar 17, 2017 -> 05:57 PM)
Pretty much how I expected it. Still leaves two spots between Davidson, Asche, & Liriano.

 

I know we've had some positive reports on May but from what I saw down in Arizona this spring he is not a MLB CF. He takes awful routes and it's not like his bat is anything special either. There's really no reason to start his arb clock. Give him more time in AAA and see if he can figure it out. He could still be a decent 4th OF.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 15, 2017 -> 09:36 AM)
I think the opposite. I think the reason they brought in all of the fringe guys that they did (Liriano, Asche, Burjos, Garcia) is that they knew these kids weren't ready, and they wanted to buy them potentially as much as a season for them to either be ready, or for new prospects to supplant them.

You're probably right; still I would rather see fringe prospects play ahead of fringe veterans. Avi is only 25, so I can understand it.

But Bourjos is 30 and was cut, as the deadspin guy said, from the 91 loss Phillies.

 

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QUOTE (GreenSox @ Mar 17, 2017 -> 04:31 PM)
You're probably right; still I would rather see fringe prospects play ahead of fringe veterans. Avi is only 25, so I can understand it.

But Bourjos is 30 and was cut, as the deadspin guy said, from the 91 loss Phillies.

I think Bourjos might be quite happy to be back playing mostly CF and we could see a bit of a rebirth from him. He may have lost a step but he is still a very good fielder. Staying healthy is always a problem for him.

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Mar 17, 2017 -> 09:37 PM)
I think Bourjos might be quite happy to be back playing mostly CF and we could see a bit of a rebirth from him. He may have lost a step but he is still a very good fielder. Staying healthy is always a problem for him.

Very well could be true. But to what end? He's a placeholder on this team, and a 5th OF, if that, on a playoff team. Prefer to see fringe prospects over fringe "proven veterans" be the placeholders.

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QUOTE (GreenSox @ Mar 18, 2017 -> 09:17 AM)
Very well could be true. But to what end? He's a placeholder on this team, and a 5th OF, if that, on a playoff team. Prefer to see fringe prospects over fringe "proven veterans" be the placeholders.

 

Service time is also a huge consideration. Placeholders prevent MLB service time.

 

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Mar 17, 2017 -> 06:10 PM)
I know we've had some positive reports on May but from what I saw down in Arizona this spring he is not a MLB CF. He takes awful routes and it's not like his bat is anything special either. There's really no reason to start his arb clock. Give him more time in AAA and see if he can figure it out. He could still be a decent 4th OF.

 

For a guy like May, you probably don't worry about service time and arbitration. He probably does need time in Triple-A however.

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QUOTE (GreenSox @ Mar 18, 2017 -> 07:17 AM)
Very well could be true. But to what end? He's a placeholder on this team, and a 5th OF, if that, on a playoff team. Prefer to see fringe prospects over fringe "proven veterans" be the placeholders.

Since Bourjos is most likely the Sox best OF defender the Sox have to take into consideration that better defense will help the pitcher look better for trades . I know one good defender in an OF of mediocre might not make much difference.

 

However the Stat cast people have come up with a new stat called Catch Probability. This link explains it and its flaws http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2017/03/th...-and-catch.html while this link https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard is the Catch Probability leader board that shows Bourjos as making 7 5 star outs which puts him very high on the list for that category which are the most impressive outs recorded.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Mar 19, 2017 -> 10:07 AM)
Since Bourjos is most likely the Sox best OF defender the Sox have to take into consideration that better defense will help the pitcher look better for trades . I know one good defender in an OF of mediocre might not make much difference.

Good point. Actually it would be 1 good defender in an otherwise bad outfield.

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QUOTE (GreenSox @ Mar 19, 2017 -> 09:05 AM)
Good point. Actually it would be 1 good defender in an otherwise bad outfield.

Avi was not as bad out there as some may think. While you have to make your own determination on the value of Catch Probability and other defensive metrics, Avi looks like the only OF who was at 100 percent in the 2 and 1 star categories. Granted he didn't have as many chances as some and his rating on the more difficult chances isn't very good but even Mike Trout didn't grade out too well in the 5 star catch category. Plus for whatever the OF lacks in range Avi and Melky both have very good arms. So overall that's why I generously called them mediocre rather than bad.

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The uncertainly about Tilson's injury and his durability opened up CF for Bourjos

Avi Garcia will start in RF and Melky in LF which is really not what I wanted to see. They don't hit well enough to justify sub-standard defense. Fourth and fifth outfielder probably Leury Garcia and Cody Asche.

 

It would be great to improve the outfield with a trade. Have pitching, need outfielders.

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They should be on a plane ten days from now...

 

OF- Melky, Bourjos, Avisail

IF- Frazier, Anderson, Saladino, Abreu

C- Narvaez

DH- Asche

Bench- Davidson, Leury, Sanchez, Soto

 

Starters- Quintana, Shields, Holland, Gonzalez, Rodon

 

Bullpen- Covey, Ynoa, Putnam, Petricka, Jennings, Jones, Robertson

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Robertson ends up with the Nationals in the next two weeks.

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