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Last place team candidates tracker


Dominikk85

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I think it could be fun to track what happens with the last place candidate teams (trades, injuries...)

 

I start with the reds, their probably best starter anthony de scalafani was diagnosed with a ucl sprain. He will be shut down for a month but often this ends up in TJ surgery.

 

The reds already have a very terrible rotation, if they lose him for the year they become a very serious candidate for the worst record. (Even with him they are projected around bottom 4)

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QUOTE (GermanSock @ Mar 14, 2017 -> 04:03 AM)
I think it could be fun to track what happens with the last place candidate teams (trades, injuries...)

 

I start with the reds, their probably best starter anthony de scalafani was diagnosed with a ucl sprain. He will be shut down for a month but often this ends up in TJ surgery.

 

The reds already have a very terrible rotation, if they lose him for the year they become a very serious candidate for the worst record. (Even with him they are projected around bottom 4)

 

The Padres by a mile for me. They have a bad rotation and I believe 3 rule 5 picks that they will carry. I think the only position they have a major league player is 1B. Add to that a really good division and the friars could set the all time loss record.

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Right now projections at fangraphs have padres at 65 wins, white sox at 69, reds and brewers at 70, the next group are then Phillies, braves and twins all in the low 70s.

 

Pythagoran luck can account for about plus minus 6 to 7 wins so that plays a role too.

 

If the Sox do another trade or two they could be right in the mix with the padres but getting a good return on the trades is more important than the draft pick.

Edited by GermanSock
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I think Brewers are going to have a nice jump this year to 75 wins, even in that division. Padres I see being one of those teams that has an abysmal first half and people stop paying attention then have a surprisingly competent second half that takes them out of last place.

 

I still think last place could be a team nobody suspects (like last year) and I'd put it on the marlins.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 14, 2017 -> 09:57 AM)
I think Brewers are going to have a nice jump this year to 75 wins, even in that division. Padres I see being one of those teams that has an abysmal first half and people stop paying attention then have a surprisingly competent second half that takes them out of last place.

 

I still think last place could be a team nobody suspects (like last year) and I'd put it on the marlins.

 

Easily. I see them finishing last in that division. All it really takes is for an annual Stanton dl-stint. Braves and Phillies I would think will improve slightly.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 14, 2017 -> 09:57 AM)
I think Brewers are going to have a nice jump this year to 75 wins, even in that division. Padres I see being one of those teams that has an abysmal first half and people stop paying attention then have a surprisingly competent second half that takes them out of last place.

 

I still think last place could be a team nobody suspects (like last year) and I'd put it on the marlins.

Yeah Padres are definitely the favorite to finish with the worst record but if I were a betting man I'd probably take the field over them.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 14, 2017 -> 09:57 AM)
I think Brewers are going to have a nice jump this year to 75 wins, even in that division. Padres I see being one of those teams that has an abysmal first half and people stop paying attention then have a surprisingly competent second half that takes them out of last place.

 

I still think last place could be a team nobody suspects (like last year) and I'd put it on the marlins.

 

I see the Marlins performing about where they are projected. WAR has them projected to win 78 games, but from a pure talent perspective, I see them under that. However, I really like their bullpen and I think they will a few games they wouldn't under normal circumstances. Thus, right around .500.

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