Lucas Giolito

[GreatScott82]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1898047...lito-worth-hype

 

The White Sox seemed to be the obvious winner in the Adam Eaton deal during the winter meetings. Now it seems like many top scouts and MLB writers are questioning the ability of Lucas Giolito. Between this article and the Rodon news, it has not been a good morning for me as a White Sox fan.

[Blackout Friday]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1898047...lito-worth-hype

 

The White Sox seemed to be the obvious winner in the Adam Eaton deal during the winter meetings. Now it seems like many top scouts and MLB writers are questioning the ability of Lucas Giolito. Between this article and the Rodon news, it has not been a good morning for me as a White Sox fan.

They wrote this article as though the trade was a 1-1 swap. I agree early results aren't encouraging, but I'm not ready to panic.

[Dick Allen]

I was down on the trade because I thought Giolito was overhyped, but if spring training stats matter, Eaton has been horrible.

 

See where this guy is in a year or two.

Edited March 25, 2017 by Dick Allen

[maggsmaggs]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1898047...lito-worth-hype

 

The White Sox seemed to be the obvious winner in the Adam Eaton deal during the winter meetings. Now it seems like many top scouts and MLB writers are questioning the ability of Lucas Giolito. Between this article and the Rodon news, it has not been a good morning for me as a White Sox fan.

I don't know why Rodon news is that depressing. It's a non-structural issue, he will be fine in the long run. He may just miss some early season ball.

 

The Giolito stuff is definitely a cause for concern, namely that his fastball seems to have stayed in the low 90s where it was last year. But again, it's just spring training. If he continues to have a lack of velocity into the regular season, then there is some real worry.

[Jerksticks]

They wrote this article as though the trade was a 1-1 swap. I agree early results aren't encouraging, but I'm not ready to panic.

 

Lopez was the prize of the trade and he looks as-advertised or better. Dunning i have no idea what's going on

[Dick Allen]

Lopez was the prize of the trade and he looks as-advertised or better. Dunning i have no idea what's going on

Lopez is going to have to be pretty amazing if he is all they get for 5 pretty cheap years of Adam Eaton.

 

They need the others to do something to make this trade look good.

Edited March 25, 2017 by Dick Allen

[bmags]

I am pretty confident Giolito will end up as a good pitcher, I just think he'll end up doing it with a repertoire he didn't expect. He's had a lot of pitching tweaks and changes trying to get him to be the controlled 4 seam fb/curve/change guy. He needs to figure out what he's comfortable with to get guys out, not live up to that.

[Chicago White Sox]

I think we should all have some concerns within Giolito's results so far, but it's way too early to jump to conclusions. Even that article spells it out pretty clearly: don't overreact to spring training. Let's give him a few months in Charlotte and see how things progress. One thing that makes me optimistic is how in touch he is with analytics and that he's willing to leverage them to make himself a better pitcher. He specifically mentioned spin rate and how certain mechanical changes could help him in that area. If this kid ends up flopping, it won't be from lack of a effort or thoughtfulness.

[Chicago White Sox]

Lopez is going to have to be pretty amazing if he is all they get for 5 pretty cheap years of Adam Eaton.

 

They need the others to do something to make this trade look good.

If Lopez ends up being a 3+ WAR starter, that alone would be a win for us. If you believe our realistic competive window is from 2020 to 2024, then Eaton would have only fit in for two of those years and likely would have been a declining speed-based player by that point. Lopez would be part of our core for at least four of those years and be in his prime. This is why it made sense to move Eaton despite his five years of control, as two and likely three of them would be wasted on a rebuilding club. Having said all that, I'd personally be dissapointed if that's all we got out of an Eaton trade.

[Rowand44]

I don't worry about his numbers but his velocity is something to worry about. That said, lets see what happens when he's in Charlotte, maybe he's just been trying to work on some things in the spring. It's obviously not time to panic with him but I think it's fair to at least wonder what's going on with his fastball.

[klaus kinski]

Time is now for any pitching mentor in the organization to really work with this talent and develop him. Whoever that is

[Dick Allen]

If Lopez ends up being a 3+ WAR starter, that alone would be a win for us. If you believe our realistic competive window is from 2020 to 2024, then Eaton would have only fit in for two of those years and likely would have been a declining speed-based player by that point. Lopez would be part of our core for at least four of those years and be in his prime. This is why it made sense to move Eaton despite his five years of control, as two and likely three of them would be wasted on a rebuilding club. Having said all that, I'd personally be dissapointed if that's all we got out of an Eaton trade.

 

You are assuming several things. One that Eaton's decline will be swift and sharp, and that over the next several years and even last winter, the package the White Sox received for Adam Eaton couldn't have been topped. Prospects break your heart. If Giolito is a bust, and if anyone bases his bust potential on spring training, that is really something, this trade should not have been made. And if anyone thinks Lopez is a future star based on spring training, that is insane too.

 

For it to be a good trade IMO at least 2 of them have to be good. In August we all might decide this trade was awesome or awful, and even then may still be way off. projecting pitchers 4 and 5 years out is a very difficult thing.

 

 

Edited March 25, 2017 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

I think we should all have some concerns within Giolito's results so far, but it's way too early to jump to conclusions. Even that article spells it out pretty clearly: don't overreact to spring training. Let's give him a few months in Charlotte and see how things progress. One thing that makes me optimistic is how in touch he is with analytics and that he's willing to leverage them to make himself a better pitcher. He specifically mentioned spin rate and how certain mechanical changes could help him in that area. If this kid ends up flopping, it won't be from lack of a effort or thoughtfulness.

 

It isn't the spring training results nearly as much as the why. There are serious questions about his mechanics and ability to repeat pitches. Those are very serious and legitimate problems.

[southsider2k5]

You are assuming several things. One that Eaton's decline will be swift and sharp, and that over the next several years and even last winter, the package the White Sox received for Adam Eaton couldn't have been topped. Prospects break your heart. If Giolito is a bust, and if anyone bases his bust potential on spring training, that is really something, this trade should not have been made. And if anyone thinks Lopez is a future star based on spring training, that is insane too.

 

For it to be a good trade IMO at least 2 of them have to be good. In August we all might decide this trade was awesome or awful, and even then may still be way off. projecting pitchers 4 and 5 years out is a very difficult thing.

 

And this is the exact downside to "blow it up". If it fails, we are talking years more of problems.

[Dick Allen]

It isn't the spring training results nearly as much as the why. There are serious questions about his mechanics and ability to repeat pitches. Those are very serious and legitimate problems.

The good news is this guy is huge and It's not uncommon for really huge guys to take longer refining mechanics. But a lot of times they never do, so we will see. If he is as good as Keith Law thought a year ago, the Sox did fine.

[GreenSox]

And this is the exact downside to "blow it up". If it fails, we are talking years more of problems.

A successful rebuild will still result in at least 1/2 of the prospects flopping. Gotta have the stomach for it.

The Sox still have only moved 3 of the 10 or so players that they need to move. The drafts of the last 2 years and for the next 2 years, along with international signings (should they finally decide to seriously partake) are also part of the rebuild. And then when they are 4 or so spots away, they will bring in the FAs (versus doing it when they have only 4 spots internally filled).

If it "fails" then that means the scouting and development remain subpar.

Edited March 25, 2017 by GreenSox

[southsider2k5]

A successful rebuild will still result in at least 1/2 of the prospects flopping. Gotta have the stomach for it.

The Sox still have only moved 3 of the 10 or so players that they need to move. The drafts of the last 2 years and for the next 2 years, along with international signings (should they finally decide to seriously partake) are also part of the rebuild. And then when they are 4 or so spots away, they will bring in the FAs (versus doing it when they have only 4 spots internally filled).

If it "fails" then that means the scouting and development remain subpar.

 

As soon "rebuild" was declared, half of the roster instantly gained value that it didn't have the day before in Sox fans eyes.

[Rowand44]

And this is the exact downside to "blow it up". If it fails, we are talking years more of problems.

True, we could have just kept going down the road of the last decade of excellence. Tons of downside here.

[Bob Sacamano]

No one ever talks about Dunning who was a first round pick last year.

[Blackout Friday]

No one ever talks about Dunning who was a first round pick last year.

Had a nice debut too.

[greg775]

And this is the exact downside to "blow it up". If it fails, we are talking years more of problems.

Amen. Of course you are right. Blowing it up is not the right thing to do for the Sox franchise. There are other ways to rebuild. Like spend spend spend for proven players and make a few smart trades.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Amen. Of course you are right. Blowing it up is not the right thing to do for the Sox franchise. There are other ways to rebuild. Like spend spend spend for proven players and make a few smart trades.

 

 

[Blackout Friday]

Amen. Of course you are right. Blowing it up is not the right thing to do for the Sox franchise. There are other ways to rebuild. Like spend spend spend for proven players and make a few smart trades.

This reminds me of the old Simpsons episode where the town is digging for treasure that isn't there. Once they realize it isn't there and they need to escape, the winning suggestion is "we'll dig our way out of it!"

 

The parallels are astounding.

[SCCWS]

Amen. Of course you are right. Blowing it up is not the right thing to do for the Sox franchise. There are other ways to rebuild. Like spend spend spend for proven players and make a few smart trades.

 

If in 2022 the Sox finish in 4th place in the Central and Moncada is a used car salesman in Miami and Giolito is doing commercials in LA, we will all be saying the Sale and Eaton trades were mistakes. If the Sox are hanging another World Series banner and Moncada is MVP and Giolito is a 20 game winner, we all will be saying the Sale and Eaton trades were divine inspirations.

 

[flavum]

If in 2022 the Sox finish in 4th place in the Central and Moncada is a used car salesman in Miami and Giolito is doing commercials in LA, we will all be saying the Sale and Eaton trades were mistakes. If the Sox are hanging another World Series banner and Moncada is MVP and Giolito is a 20 game winner, we all will be saying the Sale and Eaton trades were divine inspirations.

 

In my opinion, the full blown rebuild will never be the wrong decision even if all of these moves don't result in multiple playoff teams or hopefully a championship. It would probably result in front office changes, and the ownership may change by then. But this attempt at sustained success is the right thing to do no matter the end result.