SSS Theater: Avi Garcia

[Kyyle23]

Has he had a 20 game stretch where he has been THIS hot though? We're now 20 games in and Avi leads the AL in hitting, and is top 5 in OPS. I don't think he has suddenly become a star, but its pretty obvious that something has clicked. He is keeping is bat in the zone much longer. He isn't overswinging on every pitch. He is using the whole field. That, combined with his improved conditioning, and I think we have seen a young player that is finally coming into his own.

 

I don't expect Avi to lead the league in hitting, or heck, even eclipse .300 by seasons end, but it does seem like perhaps we finally have an above average contributor with the bat. Time will tell, and I remain a little skeptical, but I believe more and more everyday.

 

looking through his splits, his 2015 May was pretty big, 2014(injury) and 2016 were just slogs start to finish(that probably shaped our opinions of him lol), august 2013 was also a pretty awesome month for him.

[bmags]

I am all for the advanced metrics but when you tell me a guy like Avi has been meh the past few weeks it totally confuses me and makes me question life itself.

 

It's not saying he's been meh, it's asking whether he has started doing something substantially different to get this substantially different output, or if he is just on a hot streak. The above article was not "he's done nothing different", he is striking out less, hitting more elevated balls, and swinging out of the strike zone less. But not starkly different.

 

2017 Avi is likely going to be the best version yet, but still unclear if that means he is an established MLB starter.

[chitownsportsfan]

It's not saying he's been meh, it's asking whether he has started doing something substantially different to get this substantially different output, or if he is just on a hot streak. The above article was not "he's done nothing different", he is striking out less, hitting more elevated balls, and swinging out of the strike zone less. But not starkly different.

 

2017 Avi is likely going to be the best version yet, but still unclear if that means he is an established MLB starter.

 

I posted yesterday that I didn't really see much in the peripherals to indicate a major change in approach or skill but I think the Fangraphs blurb was a little too negative. As you noted, he has made SOME improvements, including on important indicators like fly ball rate and outside zone swinging %. But the changes he's made will make him a 260/320/450 hitter, not a 290/350/530 hitter, or thereabouts.

 

He is defending better as well, so if you take a merely mediocre RF and put it with a 770 OPS you have a 2ish war player instead of just replacement level dreck. I'd be happy with that. It means one less spot to fill on the next playoff team. You win with a lot of 2 win starters.

 

[bmags]

I posted yesterday that I didn't really see much in the peripherals to indicate a major change in approach or skill but I think the Fangraphs blurb was a little too negative. As you noted, he has made SOME improvements, including on important indicators like fly ball rate and outside zone swinging %. But the changes he's made will make him a 260/320/450 hitter, not a 290/350/530 hitter, or thereabouts.

 

He is defending better as well, so if you take a merely mediocre RF and put it with a 770 OPS you have a 2ish war player instead of just replacement level dreck. I'd be happy with that. It means one less spot to fill on the next playoff team. You win with a lot of 2 win starters.

 

Well put. He its the ball so hard that any % increase in LD% should correlate in some pretty nice production, but where it's at now does not indicate an all star.

[tray]

There isn't anything magical about Avi's improvement. He focused on weight loss and conditioning in the off-season and it has paid dividends with his offense, defense and with his confidence.

Several big clutch hits already this season including a home run and a triple against Detroit.

[BigHurt3515]

There isn't anything magical about Avi's improvement. He focused on weight loss and conditioning in the off-season and it has paid dividends with his offense, defense and with his confidence.

Several big clutch hits already this season including a home run and a triple against Detroit.

 

Weight loss and conditioning doesn't change your approach at the plate or mechanics.

[chitownsportsfan]

Weight loss and conditioning doesn't change your approach at the plate or mechanics.

 

From larry at SSS

 

average launch angle this season is 10.4°, in contrast to 5.3° in 2016 and 6.3° in 2015.

 

He's a better hitter this year no doubt. I think the weight loss has helped him in the field more than at the plate. He just looked kinda stiff last year. Maybe coming off the shoulder he focused a bit too much on pure weight training.

 

The new trend in performance training is a lot of band and core and so called "closed chain" work over just pure weight lifting, so hopefully he's adopted that approach.

[bmags]

From larry at SSS

 

average launch angle this season is 10.4°, in contrast to 5.3° in 2016 and 6.3° in 2015.

 

He's a better hitter this year no doubt. I think the weight loss has helped him in the field more than at the plate. He just looked kinda stiff last year. Maybe coming off the shoulder he focused a bit too much on pure weight training.

 

The new trend in performance training is a lot of band and core and so called "closed chain" work over just pure weight lifting, so hopefully he's adopted that approach.

 

Yeah saw this over the weekend and this is the one stat that makes me intrigued. If he keeps that up then I think we are going to see a sustained more powerful avi.

[chitownsportsfan]

Yeah saw this over the weekend and this is the one stat that makes me intrigued. If he keeps that up then I think we are going to see a sustained more powerful avi.

 

Yesterday was the first time it seemed he went back to some bad habits getting jammed inside with weak grounders and then chasing garbage off the plate. Hopefully just a blip.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

My favorite thing about Avi is that he always gives 100% effort when he is running out a groundball. Not all guys do that.

[Jose Abreu]

My favorite thing about Avi is that he always gives 100% effort when he is running out a groundball. Not all guys do that.

Agreed. Even prior to this year, I always liked him solely due to his effort. One of my favorite moments with him was the year he was injured and pronounced out for the season in April or May, but he somehow worked his way back in early September.

[flavum]

Interesting stats on Avi's season.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/53157956/v134...-avisail-garcia

Edited May 2, 2017 by flavum

[tray]

Small sample size but great start.

 

Much better than schwabber's .196 batting average.

[chitownsportsfan]

Small sample size but great start.

 

Much better than schwabber's .196 batting average.

 

In almost 300 MLB PA now, Schwarber has a 29% K rate, including 30% so far this year. He has a career BABIP of .284 and will rely almost entirely on power and patience in order to delivery value as a MLB player: his defense and baserunning are well below average.

 

His 2015 was a fluke, with a whopping 24% of his FB leaving the park. Now that that's down to a more reasonable 12% he's struggling to generate enough power to offset his low BA. The patience is there, both in the walk rate and the outside zone chase % but right now he's hitting like the bad version of Adam Dunn.

 

I don't see the upside really with him. I think at best he's a 250/350/500 guy that gives you nothing outside of his bat. That's a 3-4 WAR player but it's hardly a superstar.

[Bob Sacamano]

In almost 300 MLB PA now, Schwarber has a 29% K rate, including 30% so far this year. He has a career BABIP of .284 and will rely almost entirely on power and patience in order to delivery value as a MLB player: his defense and baserunning are well below average.

 

His 2015 was a fluke, with a whopping 24% of his FB leaving the park. Now that that's down to a more reasonable 12% he's struggling to generate enough power to offset his low BA. The patience is there, both in the walk rate and the outside zone chase % but right now he's hitting like the bad version of Adam Dunn.

 

I don't see the upside really with him. I think at best he's a 250/350/500 guy that gives you nothing outside of his bat. That's a 3-4 WAR player but it's hardly a superstar.

 

I have had him pegged for getting dealt to an AL team eventually.

[BlackSox13]

I have had him pegged for getting dealt to an AL team eventually.

Yep, I'd bet Schwarber is dealt for pitching help and Happ will come up and take Schwarber's place.

[chitownsportsfan]

Avi is up to 1.5 fWAR and amazingly, with his catch last night, he's now positive (.3 runs) defensively. His K rate is down to 21.7% and his GB/FB ration is a 1.52. His pull % is 45.6. Those are all very positive indicators.

 

Even if you regress his BABIP down 100 points he'd have a 283/333/529 line. Which hell, if he finished this season with that line I'd be thrilled. ZIPS now thinks he'll finish with a wRC+ of 102.

 

I think it's fair to say he's improved and might actually be a solid starter.

[OmarComing25]

Avi is up to 1.5 fWAR and amazingly, with his catch last night, he's now positive (.3 runs) defensively. His K rate is down to 21.7% and his GB/FB ration is a 1.52. His pull % is 45.6. Those are all very positive indicators.

 

Even if you regress his BABIP down 100 points he'd have a 283/333/529 line. Which hell, if he finished this season with that line I'd be thrilled. ZIPS now thinks he'll finish with a wRC+ of 102.

 

I think it's fair to say he's improved and might actually be a solid starter.

Those are rest of season projections not end of season projections, so ZIPS thinks he's now actually an above-average hitter.

[Rowand44]

So if Avi is indeed a big league regular now what the hell do you do with him? He's a free agent like right when we expect the team to take off but he's still only 25. Interesting conundrum.

 

 

Edited May 3, 2017 by Rowand44

[southsider2k5]

So if Avi is indeed a big league regular now what the hell do you do with him? He's a free agent like right when we expect the team to take off but he's still only 25. Interesting conundrum.

 

EDIT: I'm an idiot, he's a fa after this year but point still remains...kinda.

 

2020.

[OmarComing25]

Regarding his defense, he may actually have improved. In both 2016 and 2017 his UZR and DRS numbers are both positive, and in this Fangraphs article about the new Statcast defensive data he was the 4th most improved outfielder defensively from 2015 to 2016. Obviously a pretty small sample size, but at the very least I think it's fair to say he's no longer a disaster out there.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/examining-t...-probabilities/

Edited May 3, 2017 by OmarComing25

[Rowand44]

2020.

Ya, I'm an idiot. Thought that was the case originally then saw something that said otherwise then figured out it. That's why I edited and re-edited ha.

[southsider2k5]

Ya, I'm an idiot. Thought that was the case originally then saw something that said otherwise then figured out it. That's why I edited and re-edited ha.

 

Ha, gotta be quicker than that.

[Rowand44]

Ha, gotta be quicker than that.

Work, always messing with my Soxtalk edit speeds!

[southsider2k5]

Jack Daniels, always messing with my Soxtalk edit speeds!

 

I already did your next edit.