SSS Theater: Avi Garcia

[Eminor3rd]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-al...act-performers/

 

Avisail Garcia, White Sox

Here’s another example of a player who has made some progress, though not nearly as much as his raw numbers might suggest. Garcia still doesn’t walk or hit the ball in the air very often, but he is beginning to drive the ball hard in the air on those infrequent occasions. His average fly-ball velocity has increased from 91.0 mph in 2016 to 92.3 mph in 2017, allowing him to post a very strong 195 Adjusted Contact Score in the air this season.

 

Still, his numbers have been puffed up by exceedingly good fortune on the ground. He’s recorded a .297 AVG and .297 SLG on grounders — good for a 168 Unadjusted Contact Score, despite his authority meriting a much lower 98 mark. He pulls the ball on the ground frequently, as well, so there is downside below that level. Still, if you would have penciled in a .279/.310/.491 slash line (his Projected Production level) at the beginning of the season, Sox fans would have signed up.

 

[southsider2k5]

I swear everytime he has had a mini slump this season, and I start to wonder if this is the beginning of the end, he has another big game. We are over a 1/3 of the way through the season now, and he is still putting up really impressive numbers.

[iamshack]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-al...act-performers/

Debbie Downer

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-al...act-performers/

I wish I knew what you are saying. Just posting Fangraphs stuff tells me nothing about how you feel. Take for example the exceedingly good luck on ground balls. The last few games where where he got his BA back into the .330's. He hit some lasers on the ground. So hard they whizzed by the fielders. Also his hustle and speed has earned him more than his fair share of infield hits. Is that lucky? Perhaps somewhat catching fielders unaware to just how fast he is getting down the line. Maybe they will be more awake for Avi's hustle next time.

 

Avi got a double on a grounder that went to the 3rd baseman's left. That's right, in the hole between 3rd and short . It was hit so fast the left fielder ran it down near the warning track and Avi easily made it to 2nd .

 

Fangraphs is fine for telling you things about stats but they don't look at every individual AB like I do. There has to be a balance between what the stats say and what you actually see the player do.

Edited June 7, 2017 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[chitownsportsfan]

I wish I knew what you are saying. Just posting Fangraphs stuff tells me nothing about how you feel. Take for example the exceedingly good luck on ground balls. The last few games where where he got his BA back into the .330's. He hit some lasers on the ground. So hard they whizzed by the fielders. Also his hustle and speed has earned him more than his fair share of infield hits. Is that lucky? Perhaps somewhat catching fielders unaware to just how fast he is getting down the line. Maybe they will be more awake for Avi's hustle next time.

 

Avi got a double on a grounder that went to the 3rd baseman's left. That's right, in the hole between 3rd and short . It was hit so fast the left fielder ran it down near the warning track and Avi easily made it to 2nd .

 

Fangraphs is fine for telling you things about stats but they don't look at every individual AB like I do. There has to be a balance between what the stats say and what you actually see the player do.

 

Eh, Fangraphs totally buried the lede on their blurb about Avi, the key part was this:

 

Still, if you would have penciled in a .279/.310/.491 slash line (his Projected Production level) at the beginning of the season, Sox fans would have signed up.

 

Gee, you think? Also, the article was only focusing on hitting. Importantly, Avi has also improved his defense and baserunning. Avi has quietly become a -5 ish runs in RF, not -12ish. He's also become a net positive on the basepaths, with this year being by far his best, as he's on pace to be + 2 runs on the bases. You add it all up and he's about 1 WAR better just on defense and baserunning. That lowers the production he needs at the plate to be a solid everday player into the 115 wRC+ range, which so far he's easily surpassing.

 

He's been lucky on some ground balls, he's also improved his skill set to the point where when the luck turns, he still can be a productive everyday player. That was not the case entering this year.

[Kyyle23]

I will be happy to eat crow if Avi keeps it up all season

[chitownsportsfan]

In 249 PA, Avi Garcia has a wRC+ of 146. That's good for 7th in the AL right around Carlos Correa and Nelson Cruz, among others. Def time to look at the peripherals again. Hopefully post it tmr morning.

[Lemon_44]

The stat geeks have ruined this site for me. Why not just sit back, relax, and enjoy the fact that he's having a tremendous season. Instead there's adjusted contact rate stats, ground ball average and peripherals. Why even play the games? Just use fangraphs, war, and any other made up stat to determine the winner through a computer. It seems like every thread deteriorates into a discussion about WAR, peripherals, fip, xfip, or some other random stat.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

The stat geeks have ruined this site for me. Why not just sit back, relax, and enjoy the fact that he's having a tremendous season. Instead there's adjusted contact rate stats, ground ball average and peripherals. Why even play the games? Just use fangraphs, war, and any other made up stat to determine the winner through a computer. It seems like every thread deteriorates into a discussion about WAR, peripherals, fip, xfip, or some other random stat.

I understand what you mean because I am as old school as it gets. It's all just part of the fun discussions about predictability. Weather you use advanced stats or not the consensus on Avi was he sucked at pretty much everything.

 

Now an old school guy like me who has observed baseball for years could see Avi had some real tools that he just wasn't bringing to the surface and had plenty of chances without showing much improvement using the eye test or advanced stats.

 

I will admit that half of me is always optimistic a young player will turn it around while others given the large sample size of badness declared Avi a bust . At every turn I'd argue against these conclusions but I easily could've been wrong . The advanced stats just give the arguments merit for those who believe in them and statistically and mathematically many of those stats are valid.

 

Despite all that sometimes things just click. A change in stance along with weight loss , a newer mental approach those are things the stats cannot take into consideration . All they do is show tendencies and if the peripherals stay the same the player is a failure . The trouble is there are now so many peripherals and ways to look at a player that many times a stat geek can overlook things or become focused on just a handful of stats to make their assessment.

 

Last year I saw signs Avi was improving in fielding and that he was just about the Sox best hitter with RISP . Also when he made contact he hit the ball really hard and hit some monster HR's. I also suggested he lose weight near the end of last year because he looked stiff through his upper body and thought he had lost a step.

 

It's important to observe the game closely to make keen observations if I am going to argue with these mathematicians. Luckily I love White Sox baseball so much I can always hope for the best and also, with somewhat rose colored, glasses make my own observations.

 

The stats guy just make it very challenging to discuss baseball , but I'm here to discuss baseball so in the end it makes discussions better even if the stats guys are just a little too trusting of every new stat that comes along. Remember us old guys used stats too but they were batting average, RBI's, ERA and whatever was on the back of a baseball card. Fangraphs is just a huge baseball card for the new generation.

[Dam8610]

In 249 PA, Avi Garcia has a wRC+ of 146. That's good for 7th in the AL right around Carlos Correa and Nelson Cruz, among others. Def time to look at the peripherals again. Hopefully post it tmr morning.

 

Looking at the batted ball and swing data, I found the following:

 

BABIP is well above career norms and likely unsustainable. Unless K rate comes down, average is likely to regress, but Hard contact% increase paired with Soft contact% decrease totaling about 5-6% support sustainability of some increase in BABIP, maybe to .320-.340 range, which would make him a .260-.290 hitter, though that could be higher if he can sustain his well above career norms IFH%.

 

LD% is slightly above career norms, but not significantly so.

 

FB% is near career norms, and while IFFB% is above career norms fairly significantly (?????), even more significantly above career norms is his HR/FB%. I believe this to be supported (and therefore hopefully sustainable) by the large increases in Pull% and Hard contact%, both of which are significantly above career norms. I think these increases combined explain the .213 ISO, and if he can sustain them, point to an improved power hitter.

 

Contact% is significantly above career norms, likely as a result of significantly above career norms O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, and Z-Swing%. His Swing% is also significantly above career norms as a result of the significant increase in Z-Swing%. This seems to explain why his walk rate is well below career norms despite his SwStr% being significantly below career norms.

 

All in all the data suggests that Avi has gotten a tick quicker both as a runner and with the bat which has turned him into a pull power hitter who makes lots of hard contact but still has the speed to force the defense to make a play on him even when he makes soft contact, and has made him overall better as a defender. Does this seem right to people who have watched more of the games than I have this year?

Edited June 9, 2017 by Dam8610

[username]

Looking at the batted ball and swing data, I found the following:

 

BABIP is well above career norms and likely unsustainable. Unless K rate comes down, average is likely to regress, but Hard contact% increase paired with Soft contact% decrease totaling about 5-6% support sustainability of some increase in BABIP, maybe to .320-.340 range, which would make him a .260-.290 hitter, though that could be higher if he can sustain his well above career norms IFH%.

 

LD% is slightly above career norms, but not significantly so.

 

FB% is near career norms, and while IFFB% is above career norms fairly significantly (?????), even more significantly above career norms is his HR/FB%. I believe this to be supported (and therefore hopefully sustainable) by the large increases in Pull% and Hard contact%, both of which are significantly above career norms. I think these increases combined explain the .213 ISO, and if he can sustain them, point to an improved power hitter.

 

Contact% is significantly above career norms, likely as a result of significantly above career norms O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, and Z-Swing%. His Swing% is also significantly above career norms as a result of the significant increase in Z-Swing%. This seems to explain why his walk rate is well below career norms despite his SwStr% being significantly below career norms.

 

All in all the data suggests that Avi has gotten a tick quicker both as a runner and with the bat which has turned him into a pull power hitter who makes lots of hard contact but still has the speed to force the defense to make a play on him even when he makes soft contact, and has made him overall better as a defender. Does this seem right to people who have watched more of the games than I have this year?

 

Great analysis, definitely gells with what I've seen this year having watched most of his at bats. The biggest sustainable changes I can see are the better contact %, dramatic pull increase, and launch angle increase.

 

The fascinating thing is that he's actually become better by being MORE aggressive instead of less - it's like he's embraced the fact that he's a hacker and now he's just looking to use his massive frame to pull it more.

 

I think if he can keep upping the FB% you'll see him become a truly elite power hitter (I only say he's not now because the BABIP definitely will come down).

[chitownsportsfan]

Good stuff guys.

[witesoxfan]

The stat geeks have ruined this site for me. Why not just sit back, relax, and enjoy the fact that he's having a tremendous season. Instead there's adjusted contact rate stats, ground ball average and peripherals. Why even play the games? Just use fangraphs, war, and any other made up stat to determine the winner through a computer. It seems like every thread deteriorates into a discussion about WAR, peripherals, fip, xfip, or some other random stat.

 

Because to get those numbers, you have to play the games. And with those numbers...

 

Looking at the batted ball and swing data, I found the following:

 

BABIP is well above career norms and likely unsustainable. Unless K rate comes down, average is likely to regress, but Hard contact% increase paired with Soft contact% decrease totaling about 5-6% support sustainability of some increase in BABIP, maybe to .320-.340 range, which would make him a .260-.290 hitter, though that could be higher if he can sustain his well above career norms IFH%.

 

LD% is slightly above career norms, but not significantly so.

 

FB% is near career norms, and while IFFB% is above career norms fairly significantly (?????), even more significantly above career norms is his HR/FB%. I believe this to be supported (and therefore hopefully sustainable) by the large increases in Pull% and Hard contact%, both of which are significantly above career norms. I think these increases combined explain the .213 ISO, and if he can sustain them, point to an improved power hitter.

 

Contact% is significantly above career norms, likely as a result of significantly above career norms O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, and Z-Swing%. His Swing% is also significantly above career norms as a result of the significant increase in Z-Swing%. This seems to explain why his walk rate is well below career norms despite his SwStr% being significantly below career norms.

 

All in all the data suggests that Avi has gotten a tick quicker both as a runner and with the bat which has turned him into a pull power hitter who makes lots of hard contact but still has the speed to force the defense to make a play on him even when he makes soft contact, and has made him overall better as a defender. Does this seem right to people who have watched more of the games than I have this year?

 

...we can see that there is some sustainability to Avisail's game, as he has improved as a hitter. We're still looking at a fairly small sample size. Michael Saunders of the Blue Jays looked like he'd figured out his game last year, as through July 31st of last year, he was hitting .281/.366/.536/.902. Pitcher's made an adjustment, and he hit .186/.267/.338/.605 from August first through the end of that year, and that has continued into this year for him. You'd be fooling yourself if you didn't think the same thing could happen to Garcia. Still, there are more positive developments with regard to Garcia that I think he can be classified as an above average hitter and a slightly below average fielder, making him a 2-3 WAR player moving foward, meaning he's a good regular and a player the Sox can be apart of the rebuilding process.

[chitownsportsfan]

Still, there are more positive developments with regard to Garcia that I think he can be classified as an above average hitter and a slightly below average fielder, making him a 2-3 WAR player moving foward, meaning he's a good regular and a player the Sox can be apart of the rebuilding process.

 

I think that's the key takeaway here. He looks like a regular going forward, not a star probably, but a guy you can rely on for 2 WAR in a year you are trying to win 90+ games. His speed tool is finally translating a bit on the bases and in the field.

 

You guys already did a lot of analysis on the peripherals so I'll just add that ZIPS thinks he's a 104 wRC+ hitter the rest of the way.

 

And a brief aside on "stats guys":

 

First stats guy I ever met was my HS coach. I was a big fish in a small N. MI pond looking to possibly play baseball in college on a partial ride (my peak was def summer between soph and junior year when I was invited to a couple regional showcases and did pretty well and I hit a HR at a wooden bat tourney at CMU...but then I found other things in life). He was a former GLIAC MVP at Ferris State that threw his career away with drugs and booze. He was an absolute stud, even in his 40s he'd take BP with a metal bat and he'd hit absolute bombs 400+ feet. Anyways, he was about as far from a "point head intellectual" as it gets. He swore like a sailor and always had a big ole dip in.

 

That said, he introduced us to his spreadsheets which among other things, showed our OBP, OPS and ISO and K% and BB%. For pitchers he did similar. Nothing mind blowing, but pretty good for back in the mid 90s.

 

My own career ended up fizzing out in DIII, where I managed a pretty s***ty 690 OPS over 300 odd career PA. But I rediscovered sabermetrics in my mid 20s after college in 2005 when people said the Sox were "lucky". I wanted to find out why people thought they were lucky. One thing led to another and eventually I found Tango's "linear weights" which forever changed how I watch the game -- for the better.

 

If you haven't read about linear weights you should, it's the basis for WAR, among other things.

 

https://triplesalley.wordpress.com/2011/03/...linear-weights/

Edited June 9, 2017 by chitownsportsfan

[Dick Allen]

Fangraphs called Avi's demise a month and a half ago. I think the projection then was .255 with 15 or 16 homers. The guy said sell for anything.

 

He is going to come back to the pack a bit, but he's been awesome. If you can be "lucky" for a third of a major league season, I'll take it. He's been almost a 3.0 WAR. I think it's time to give him credit rather for what he's done rather than someone trying to project what he "should" have done.

 

His last 405 plate appearances .302/.345/.515

Edited June 9, 2017 by Dick Allen

[chitownsportsfan]

Fangraphs called Avi's demise a month and a half ago. I think the projection then was .255 with 15 or 16 homers. The guy said sell for anything.

 

He is going to come back to the pack a bit, but he's been awesome. If you can be "lucky" for a third of a major league season, I'll take it. He's been almost a 3.0 WAR. I think it's time to give him credit rather for what he's done rather than someone trying to project what he "should" have done.

 

His last 405 plate appearances .302/.345/.515

 

 

Yea not bad, not bad at all. Still like to see him up that walk rate as he matures as a hitter.

[bmags]

I did my five votes today

 

[Dam8610]

Fangraphs called Avi's demise a month and a half ago. I think the projection then was .255 with 15 or 16 homers. The guy said sell for anything.

 

He is going to come back to the pack a bit, but he's been awesome. If you can be "lucky" for a third of a major league season, I'll take it. He's been almost a 3.0 WAR. I think it's time to give him credit rather for what he's done rather than someone trying to project what he "should" have done.

 

His last 405 plate appearances .302/.345/.515

 

Very hard to buy a .392 BABIP as sustainable. That said, with improved speed and contact quality, a significant improvement in BABIP from his career norms is something I could buy as sustainable.

[iamshack]

Very hard to buy a .392 BABIP as sustainable. That said, with improved speed and contact quality, a significant improvement in BABIP from his career norms is something I could buy as sustainable.

And hell, it isn't like you already aren't seeing a noticeable amount of his hard-hit balls be caught.

[chitownsportsfan]

It's really remarkable HOW he's become a good hitter. He's actually swinging at MORE pitches this year, both outside the zone and inside the zone, than ever. What has changed is that he's now pulling the ball 47% of the time and over half his ball in play are either fly balls or line drives. 21% of his FB have left the park.

 

The quality of contact is real. The next step for him will be to try and improve his command of the zone, especially early in the count.

 

Zips thinks he's a 105 wRC+ bat the rest of the way. I'd take the over on that personally. I bet he goes about 280/330/480 from this point out, which is about a 115-120 wRC+

 

Notably, he's also sustained his defensive improvement from last year, now he's only below average in RF, not a tire fire. That's big.

[GreenSox]

The thing that makes me uncomfortable about the BABIP % statistic is that it seems to equate all non-homer hit balls equally. So the guy who bashes it off the wall every at bat would have a "lucky" BABIP% while the guy who doinks it to the pitcher time and time again is "unlucky". Perhaps if it would distinguish between softly hit balls and hard-hit balls....

I realize Avi's under any measure is unsustainable...but he certainly does drive the ball a lot. And as they say, sometimes you make your own "luck."

[greg775]

The stat geeks have ruined this site for me. Why not just sit back, relax, and enjoy the fact that he's having a tremendous season. Instead there's adjusted contact rate stats, ground ball average and peripherals. Why even play the games? Just use fangraphs, war, and any other made up stat to determine the winner through a computer. It seems like every thread deteriorates into a discussion about WAR, peripherals, fip, xfip, or some other random stat.

Nice post. Just as many posters refuse to read my posts, I won't read the statniks' posts. I just skim through them. Like I said, some won't rest until Avi gets in an Avi-like slump that tears into his batting average. Yet the same people will forgive some of the other younger players like Anderson for his ridiculous hitting philosophy (no walks) with the crutch that he's young.

[daggins]

The thing that makes me uncomfortable about the BABIP % statistic is that it seems to equate all non-homer hit balls equally. So the guy who bashes it off the wall every at bat would have a "lucky" BABIP% while the guy who doinks it to the pitcher time and time again is "unlucky". Perhaps if it would distinguish between softly hit balls and hard-hit balls....

I realize Avi's under any measure is unsustainable...but he certainly does drive the ball a lot. And as they say, sometimes you make your own "luck."

There are attempts to do this very thing, although I can imagine the border between Hard and Medium contact is sort of fuzzy and ill defined. Based on the Fangraphs page, two major trends for Avi this year:

 

1. He is making less weak contact and more "medium" contact. Hard hit % is about the same.

2. His pull rate is way up, 47% this year (from 37% last year)

 

Based on this, I would expect the BABIP to regress, but it's entirely possible that the power breakout is real. If Avi is a 30 HR guy now, that would still make him valuable, even with a BA around .270

[iamshack]

There are attempts to do this very thing, although I can imagine the border between Hard and Medium contact is sort of fuzzy and ill defined. Based on the Fangraphs page, two major trends for Avi this year:

 

1. He is making less weak contact and more "medium" contact. Hard hit % is about the same.

2. His pull rate is way up, 47% this year (from 37% last year)

 

Based on this, I would expect the BABIP to regress, but it's entirely possible that the power breakout is real. If Avi is a 30 HR guy now, that would still make him valuable, even with a BA around .270

Help me understand the doubles though. I'm going purely off of my own eyes here, but it seems like he's getting a s***load more XBH, not just home runs.

[OmarComing25]

The thing that makes me uncomfortable about the BABIP % statistic is that it seems to equate all non-homer hit balls equally. So the guy who bashes it off the wall every at bat would have a "lucky" BABIP% while the guy who doinks it to the pitcher time and time again is "unlucky". Perhaps if it would distinguish between softly hit balls and hard-hit balls....

I realize Avi's under any measure is unsustainable...but he certainly does drive the ball a lot. And as they say, sometimes you make your own "luck."

Mike Podhorzer of Rotographs has an xBABIP stat that takes into account batted ball profile, soft and hard hits, and shifts, and Avi's xBABIP came out to .329, which is pretty close to his career BABIP.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-two-m...-overachievers/